Analyzing Dubas's Performance - III

[Stephen]

That's not a very accurate representation of their production levels at time of signing. Their production at time of signing was not actually that different. McDavid was better in point production, Matthews was better in primary point production and goal production. What McDavid did after he signed was irrelevant, and even though Matthews hasn't taken the same kind of step yet as McDavid after, I think you'd be surprised what kind of raw production we'd be seeing from Matthews with the same TOI.

Your hot take on this topic makes no sense because the talking points surrounding the Matthews signing in February 2019 did not in any way revolve around any similarity between McDavid and Matthews. We were all here in real time discussing it so to talk about events from 16 months ago in these revisionist history terms is unacceptable.

Matthews cap hit was an evolution on the Eichel and Tavares deals. Matthews was and continues to outstrip Eichel in terms of being a franchise center and Tavares was an in house comparable for what a 1 and 1A center should make.

Only the very deluded would have looked at Matthews in progress 73 point season in 68 games as surprisingly close to McDavid’s sophomore 100 point season.

 

[Stephen]

That still doesn't mean that you're going to get a core piece from Carolina; a top 4 RHD signed for 5 more years at 4m. There were rumours that he would have been available for Nylander on a long-term deal through his prime, and you think they not only would trade him for Kadri on the decline and half the term, and not only trade him for Kadri on the decline and half the term and a downgrade on the return for taking on 6.25m of dead cap and 4m of dead salary, but also add?

To be fair to your point, Dubas doesn’t have a history of getting good deals in trade, so any hope of getting an equitable deal that satisfies roster need and medium term organizational requirements is likely to be zero.

 

[Antropovsky]

Good article I can only go off what Brian told me when he was tutoring my kid in math which is also a secondary brotherly source. But one thing I can tell you about Shanny was he was one of those kids who could take very differing stances on things than you would expect. I mean he often said one thing and did another. Not in a bad way as he was always team first and loads of character but he was very unpredictable. Shanny we need a guy like you up front and a couple vet defenders who think D first. and likely a new goalie who doesn't sh*t bricks when it counts. Get er done man. We need a winner back here. This nonsense going out before things even get started has to stop. We need some men with more character on this team. Fly bye skater boys never win. You know that. You can't have too many on 1 team and succeed. We got too many.

Nice, appreciate the inside knowledge (Brian is Brendan’s brother?)

makes you think that in hindsight.... leafs should have kept Brown and Kadri and moved Johnsson and Kapanen. Brown is cheap, loyal with a dog determined work ethic...reliable and can move up the lineup when needed. Kadri was skilled, could pass or score, had a physical element to his game, raises his game “too” much when the other team was physical which in hindsight is better than shrinking. He is also a center or could play wing and was a good defensive player. Also unfortunate he wasn’t given an opportunity in the top 6. He and Marner had good chemistry whenever they played together.

Dubas kept johnsson, an injury prone, small forward with good skill and Kapanen a speedy winger who is an subpar passer and an ok goal scorer. Not sure if either are “excellent” defenders.

Too bad this season is such an anomaly though... is Kadri and Brown better than Kapanen and Johnsson? Will Kapanen and Johnsson reach greater heights?

Kapanen and Johnsson trades for a better defensive D-man? Perhaps Brodie or Tanen? Both Johnsson and Kaps had great years, and are young. Surely they could have gotten a team like the nucks to eat some of the contract to be able to fit Tanev under the cap. However again... I think we all thought Johnsson and Kapanen could break out and possibly be 50+ point performers. Again in hindsight... would it have been more wise to keep brown and Kadri the two players capable of playing up and down the lineup (both a history at center too) the players who bring intangibles and are likely to stay cost effective?

Kadri Matthews Marner
Hyman Tavares Nylander
Robertson Spezza Mikheyev
Clifford Gauthier Engvall

Rielly Tanev
Muzzin Holl
Ceci Dermott

 

[Stephen]

Another point I want to make about the supposed statistical similarities between McDavid and Matthews at the time their contract signings:

If you’re looking at even strength and PP numbers and seeing similarities between a 3x 100 point scorer, Art Ross, Hart etc winner and a guy whose career high is 80 points and concluding that they should be paid similar amounts of money, I would suggest there is something wrong with the way you’ve isolated the numbers.

Because if you had the choice between Player A and Player B and had to recommend signing one to a Board that has to approve your budget, you would likely not have that job for long.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Nice, appreciate the inside knowledge (Brian is Brendan’s brother?)

makes you think that in hindsight.... leafs should have kept Brown and Kadri and moved Johnsson and Kapanen. Brown is cheap, loyal with a dog determined work ethic...reliable and can move up the lineup when needed. Kadri was skilled, could pass or score, had a physical element to his game, raises his game “too” much when the other team was physical which in hindsight is better than shrinking. He is also a center or could play wing and was a good defensive player.

Dubas kept johnsson, an injury prone, small forward with good skill and Kapanen a speedy winger who is an subpar passer and an ok goal scorer. Not sure if either are “excellent” defenders.

Too bad this season is such an anomaly though... is Kadri and Brown better than Kapanen and Johnsson? Will Kapanen and Johnsson reach greater heights?

Kapanen and Johnsson trades for a better defensive D-man? Perhaps Brodie or Tanen? Both Johnsson and Kaps had great years, and are young. Surely they could have gotten a team like the nucks to eat some of the contract to be able to fit Tanev under the cap. However again... I think we all thought Johnsson and Kapanen could break out and possibly be 50+ point performers. Again in hindsight... would it have been more wise to keep brown and Kadri the two players capable of playing up and down the lineup (both a history at center too) the players who bring intangibles and are likely to stay cost effective?

Kadri Matthews Marner
Hyman Tavares Nylander
Robertson Spezza Mikheyev
Clifford Gauthier Engvall

Rielly Tanev
Muzzin Holl
Ceci Dermott

I think we can find better and cheaper vet defenders in UFA given COVID situation and many teams lack of cash flow ... how much will Gudas and Edmundson get? Those are 2 guys who could rally help our defensive ineptitude.
I mean Petro would be great but maybe he has 2 years left and we will eat problems for next 5 years ... much like JT will be in 2 years

 

[93LEAFS]

Agreed. I was thinking about it and in the end decided to give Dubas a pass on Matthews because he's the franchise. That's overstating it maybe but to a certain extent, it's true too so with a guy like that, I can't complain too much when they give him a blank check.

Another issue is salaries aren't going to rise in the next 3 years due to the cap remaining flat, which will make these deals more strenuous than they were expected to be.

 

[Mess]

I don't understand why people are so fixated on Marleau's 3rd year.

We were in prime position to sit in his contract for the last year without giving up any assets to move the contract for cap space. We could have afforded Marner's current outrageous contract, and even afforded a more significant extension for Matthews if we wanted to.

Marleau's 3rd year only became a problem when Dubas took over and pushed us up against the cap.

One of Lou Lam's biggest downfalls is the Leafs became too good too fast and it accelerated the rebuild, when the plan was patience. Lou took over a disaster and a team that was tanking and ended up dead last with 69 points. After winning the draft lottery Lou selected Matthews #1 overall and Leafs had their franchise #1C.

Then in the next season Lou Lam set up a team full of rookies Matthews, Marner, Nylander that also included Hyman and Brown etc etc. and after he acquired Andersen to address the netminding then under Babcock's coaching suddenly improved by + 26 points ---> 95 points and made the playoffs and battled Washington in round #1..

Teams don't go from last overall to the playoffs the next year particularly with a team full of rookies very often. But the team was preaching patience but that had Lou Lam even admitting that he brought in some vets like Marleau and Hainsey etc because he felt he owed it to the kids to give them a better chance to compete.

The addition of the vets like Marleau with the kids in the 2nd season resulted in Leafs setting a 100 year franchise best 105 best points and teams wins 49 and battling the Bruins to a 7 game series in round #1 with the kids just 20/21 and Leafs window of opportunity wide open.

Then he was replaced.

 

[Dekes For Days]

We didn't need to sign multiple players to 8 years. We only needed to sign Matthews for 8 years, because he's our franchise player.

I might have put more of a priority on the bigger term for Matthews, since he was open to it, but 8 year terms are not that common for that level of player. It's usually teams that have a lot of cap space, trading short term cap space for long-term on a rebuilding team, on players that haven't broken out yet. It doesn't really fit for a team like the Leafs, and a player like Matthews.

It would have meant a significant cost for him, and it would have meant we would have had to bridge Marner, which I know now looks like a good idea, but wouldn't have been if there hadn't been an unforeseen global pandemic. It probably would have meant significant changes to the team after 3 years, instead of potential ones after 5.

There's also the argument that in the long-term, 5+8 provides more overall value than 8+8, since you don't have to pay their significant decline years.

Bozak has shifted to a more defensive role in St. Louis. For example, his even strength dZS% is up considerably compared to his time in Toronto, and he's currently killing penalties for them.

But what does that have to do with him at the time we would have been signing him? At the time, he wasn't being used on the PK by our coach. At the time, everybody called him a defensive mess in a sheltered role. His contract is too expensive, even with the increased role, and he's now 34.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Your hot take on this topic makes no sense because the talking points surrounding the Matthews signing in February 2019 did not in any way revolve around any similarity between McDavid and Matthews.

1. The talking points back then are the hot takes. Nobody knew what was really going on in the negotiation room or why, especially for the Matthews contract. It was all speculation.
2. Most of the talking points were around where he fit in between McDavid and Eichel, so I don't really get what you mean. His contract fits in properly between them, regardless of what those who only care about raw points think, and if anything, Eichel was the overpayment of those 3. A good gamble, because you could see the potential, but they paid well for the 8 years.
3. I think the best comparable was Malkin. Similar players. Similar style of team, with another star on the team. Similar level of production. 5 year term. Similar cap hit percentage, with Malkin making a bit more.

Matthews cap hit was an evolution on the Eichel and Tavares deals. Matthews was and continues to outstrip Eichel in terms of being a franchise center and Tavares was an in house comparable for what a 1 and 1A center should make.

Tavares was a UFA signing. He had nothing to do with it.

To be fair to your point, Dubas doesn’t have a history of getting good deals in trade, so any hope of getting an equitable deal that satisfies roster need and medium term organizational requirements is likely to be zero.

Just because he can't get significant core pieces from rival teams that are signed long term to great deals for his 3rd line center who just had a disappointing year and then got suspended in the playoffs (with negative value added on to the trade), it doesn't mean he is bad at trades. That's just an unreasonable expectation.

 

[Menzinger]

You can debate it however you want. You give your franchise center 8 years (ridiculous not to) and don’t blow your wad on wingers until you have a team that is built to support that through the playoffs. Add the scoring winger last when you have a foundation for success. Not paying half a cap and hoping for it.

I get the sentiment though team building isn't quite as simple as that.

You can't just add a player like say Marner whenever you like just because it's the right time.

 

[Trapper]

I get the sentiment though team building isn't quite as simple as that.

You can't just add a player like say Marner whenever you like just because it's the right time.

No but it doesn’t have to be exactly Marner. There are lots of players that can bring solid results to the team. Kadri has 9 points 7 games. Pretty decent last piece.
Also keeping the 1st round pick. It is much easier to find and draft a scoring winger than most other positions.
It’s easier to add that to a well constructed team.

 

[Gallagbi]

why did we waste money on Patrick Marleau anyway?

what a total blunder that was.

This is my issue and question. Marleau wasn't worth the cap hit in year 1 and that wasn't a surprise

 

[KillerMillerTime]

I assume you mean Connor Clifton, and you're talking about Boston's guys? Well, first off, John Moore is their #6, not an extra, and he makes 2.75m (and will for 3 more years after this one).

Clifton and Lauzon aren't all that different from what we have as depth.

I'm a Bruins fan, John Moore is the #8 D man.
Clifton and Lauzon have moved past Moore
no question.

Clifton and Lauzon are both better than Holl,
Ceci, and Marincin.

 

[egd27]

I might have put more of a priority on the bigger term for Matthews, since he was open to it, but 8 year terms are not that common for that level of player.

Every player in the Top 15 Cap Hits was signed for maximum term except for 2.

Player	Cap	Years	Max
1. Connor McDavid	$12,500,000	8	Yes
2. Artemi Panarin	$11,642,857	7	Yes
3. Auston Matthews	$11,634,000	5	No
4. Erik Karlsson	$11,500,000	8	Yes
5. Drew Doughty	$11,000,000	8	Yes
6. John Tavares	$11,000,000	7	Yes
7. Mitchell Marner	$10,893,000	6	No
8. Patrick Kane	$10,500,000	8	Yes
9. Jonathan Toews	$10,500,000	8	Yes
10. Carey Price	$10,500,000	8	Yes
11. Anze Kopitar	$10,000,000	8	Yes
12. Sergei Bobrovsky	$10,000,000	7	Yes
13. Jack Eichel	$10,000,000	8	Yes
14. Tyler Seguin	$9,850,000	8	Yes
15. Alex Ovechkin	$9,538,462	13	N/A

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I await your spin on what you meant by "that level of player"

 

[Cleetus]

Every player in the Top 15 Cap Hits was signed for maximum term except for 2.

Player	Cap	Years	Max
1. Connor McDavid	$12,500,000	8	Yes
2. Artemi Panarin	$11,642,857	7	Yes
3. Auston Matthews	$11,634,000	5	No
4. Erik Karlsson	$11,500,000	8	Yes
5. Drew Doughty	$11,000,000	8	Yes
6. John Tavares	$11,000,000	7	Yes
7. Mitchell Marner	$10,893,000	6	No
8. Patrick Kane	$10,500,000	8	Yes
9. Jonathan Toews	$10,500,000	8	Yes
10. Carey Price	$10,500,000	8	Yes
11. Anze Kopitar	$10,000,000	8	Yes
12. Sergei Bobrovsky	$10,000,000	7	Yes
13. Jack Eichel	$10,000,000	8	Yes
14. Tyler Seguin	$9,850,000	8	Yes
15. Alex Ovechkin	$9,538,462	13	N/A

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I await your spin on what you meant by "that level of player"

lol well that proved it! good post!

 

[Ifittex il Verita]

Every player in the Top 15 Cap Hits was signed for maximum term except for 2.

Player	Cap	Years	Max
1. Connor McDavid	$12,500,000	8	Yes
2. Artemi Panarin	$11,642,857	7	Yes
3. Auston Matthews	$11,634,000	5	No
4. Erik Karlsson	$11,500,000	8	Yes
5. Drew Doughty	$11,000,000	8	Yes
6. John Tavares	$11,000,000	7	Yes
7. Mitchell Marner	$10,893,000	6	No
8. Patrick Kane	$10,500,000	8	Yes
9. Jonathan Toews	$10,500,000	8	Yes
10. Carey Price	$10,500,000	8	Yes
11. Anze Kopitar	$10,000,000	8	Yes
12. Sergei Bobrovsky	$10,000,000	7	Yes
13. Jack Eichel	$10,000,000	8	Yes
14. Tyler Seguin	$9,850,000	8	Yes
15. Alex Ovechkin	$9,538,462	13	N/A

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I await your spin on what you meant by "that level of player"

no worries you'll be assured Eichel, Kane, Panarin, Kopitar arent "that level of player" very soon.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

I might have put more of a priority on the bigger term for Matthews, since he was open to it, but 8 year terms are not that common for that level of player. It's usually teams that have a lot of cap space, trading short term cap space for long-term on a rebuilding team, on players that haven't broken out yet. It doesn't really fit for a team like the Leafs, and a player like Matthews.

It would have meant a significant cost for him, and it would have meant we would have had to bridge Marner, which I know now looks like a good idea, but wouldn't have been if there hadn't been an unforeseen global pandemic. It probably would have meant significant changes to the team after 3 years, instead of potential ones after 5.

There's also the argument that in the long-term, 5+8 provides more overall value than 8+8, since you don't have to pay their significant decline years.

Long term thinking is great. GM's should definitely do that. But come on now, there is no way Dubas was thinking 13 years in the future. Thats just ridiculous.

 

[TheTotalPackage]

Dubas paid top dollar for what should have been max terms. Nothing will ever convince me otherwise. Matthews can win the Art Ross and Rocket Richard trophies the next four seasons and I would still think the same.

 

[AllDay28]

Dubas paid top dollar for what should have been max terms. Nothing will ever convince me otherwise. Matthews can win the Art Ross and Rocket Richard trophies the next four seasons and I would still think the same.

also next time your job offers you a raise...decline it.

 

[TheTotalPackage]

who cares what you think ‍

also next time your job offers you a raise...decline it.

 

[Dreakmur]

Dubas paid top dollar for what should have been max terms. Nothing will ever convince me otherwise. Matthews can win the Art Ross and Rocket Richard trophies the next four seasons and I would still think the same.

Agreed. Those cap numbers should have bought maximum term for all those guys.

 

[ACC1224]

Dubas paid top dollar for what should have been max terms. Nothing will ever convince me otherwise. Matthews can win the Art Ross and Rocket Richard trophies the next four seasons and I would still think the same.

You don’t become the favourite GM amongst Agents by fluke.

 

[Cleetus]

who cares what you think ‍

wow great post! lol very productive

 

[ACC1224]

Every player in the Top 15 Cap Hits was signed for maximum term except for 2.

Player	Cap	Years	Max
1. Connor McDavid	$12,500,000	8	Yes
2. Artemi Panarin	$11,642,857	7	Yes
3. Auston Matthews	$11,634,000	5	No
4. Erik Karlsson	$11,500,000	8	Yes
5. Drew Doughty	$11,000,000	8	Yes
6. John Tavares	$11,000,000	7	Yes
7. Mitchell Marner	$10,893,000	6	No
8. Patrick Kane	$10,500,000	8	Yes
9. Jonathan Toews	$10,500,000	8	Yes
10. Carey Price	$10,500,000	8	Yes
11. Anze Kopitar	$10,000,000	8	Yes
12. Sergei Bobrovsky	$10,000,000	7	Yes
13. Jack Eichel	$10,000,000	8	Yes
14. Tyler Seguin	$9,850,000	8	Yes
15. Alex Ovechkin	$9,538,462	13	N/A

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I await your spin on what you meant by "that level of player"

That’s some good stuff right there.

 

[Stephen]

1. The talking points back then are the hot takes. Nobody knew what was really going on in the negotiation room or why, especially for the Matthews contract. It was all speculation.
2. Most of the talking points were around where he fit in between McDavid and Eichel, so I don't really get what you mean. His contract fits in properly between them, regardless of what those who only care about raw points think, and if anything, Eichel was the overpayment of those 3. A good gamble, because you could see the potential, but they paid well for the 8 years.
3. I think the best comparable was Malkin. Similar players. Similar style of team, with another star on the team. Similar level of production. 5 year term. Similar cap hit percentage, with Malkin making a bit more.

Tavares was a UFA signing. He had nothing to do with it.

Just because he can't get significant core pieces from rival teams that are signed long term to great deals for his 3rd line center who just had a disappointing year and then got suspended in the playoffs (with negative value added on to the trade), it doesn't mean he is bad at trades. That's just an unreasonable expectation.

It’s interesting how quickly you moved off the assertion that McDavid and Matthews were statistically similar at the respective time of their signing...

You should probably just drop insinuation that Toronto was signing Matthews because they were thinking they’d get a similar player to McDavid. Nobody thought that in real time and it wasn’t very long ago either.