Blue Jays Discussion: Alright, no more discontent. Just baseball | ST in Mtl: StL @ Tor | Mar 26/27 7pm ET/4pm PT

[TheMadHatTrick]

Well, pretty much everything went wrong last season. So I understand the assumption that the exact same disasters, regardless of their randomness or likelihood of occurrence, occurring once more.

I know, right? Who could have expected Tulo and Travis getting injured; Bautista regressing, and Morales being worse than EE in almost every possible way. The randomness is mind-blowing.

 

[zeke]

I'm not really expecting much from the Jays this year. It seems like too much has to go right for us to make the playoffs. All I hope is that our prospects continue to develop and we get a good haul for our impending free agents at the trade deadline.

in a reasonable outcome season in which as many things go wrong as go right, we should be right in the playoffs hunt.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I know, right? Who could have expected Tulo and Travis getting injured; Bautista regressing, and Morales being worse than EE in almost every possible way. The randomness is mind-blowing.

Less those things, and moreso your #1 starter missing the entire season with a blister and your best player missing 200 PA after playing 155+ games in the previous four seasons. Hilariously, those two things don't happen, and the 2017 team makes the playoffs.

 

[zeke]

I know, right? Who could have expected Tulo and Travis getting injured; Bautista regressing, and Morales being worse than EE in almost every possible way. The randomness is mind-blowing.

yes, travis/tulo/bautista/pearce/Morales - 5/9 of the starting lineup - combining for -0.5war was a bit on the unlucky side, especially since they had combined for 9.7war the year before even when they weren't especially healthy that year, either.

as was the fact that only one starting pitcher or position player on the entire team - smoak - exceeded expectations.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

in a reasonable outcome season in which as many things go wrong as go right, we should be right in the playoffs hunt.

I hope they play well. That Travis and Pearce stay healthy, that Diaz and Grichuk return to form, Smoak doesn't regress, that the rotation remains healthy, etc. Pretty much our biggest edge is our pitching and that's the most volatile position health-wise to bank on.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Less those things, and moreso your #1 starter missing the entire season with a blister and your best player missing 200 PA after playing 155+ games in the previous four seasons. Hilariously, those two things don't happen, and the 2017 team makes the playoffs.

I don't think we can say this with any certainty, and in any case it's a useless hypothetical. What happened happened. As far as this season goes as I said, pitching is always volatile healthwise. It wouldn't be surprising at all to lose at least one to injury, so basically that leaves us with a Donaldson injury away from being not very good. If it wasn't his free agent season, and he didn't have every reason to stay healthy and play well I might even be more pessimistic. Having said that, he's older, is playing on turf, plays somewhat all-out/ recklessly, and has had some aches and pains this spring already I believe.

 

[zeke]

I hope they play well. That Travis and Pearce stay healthy, that Diaz and Grichuk return to form, Smoak doesn't regress, that the rotation remains healthy, etc. Pretty much our biggest edge is our pitching and that's the most volatile position health-wise to bank on.

even with Travis and Pearce not being healthy (i.e. projected for ~400pa each), and without diaz and grichuk bouncing back in any significant way, and with Smoak falling back down a good amount, and with the rotation not being especially healthy (i.e. only one SP with 180+ ip, only 3 with 140+ ip), the projetions still have us right in the playoff hunt.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

even with Travis and Pearce not being healthy (i.e. projected for ~400pa each), and without diaz and grichuk bouncing back in any significant way, and with Smoak falling back down a good amount, and with the rotation not being especially healthy (i.e. only one SP with 180+ ip, only 3 with 140+ ip), the projetions still have us right in the playoff hunt.

I know you put up the projections before but I'm too lazy to look it up. Could you post the link please? Also, how are we defining playoff hunt? 5 games or less out?

 

[zeke]

I know you put up the projections before but I'm too lazy to look it up. Could you post the link please?

Depth Charts » Blue Jays | FanGraphs Baseball

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Depth Charts » Blue Jays | FanGraphs Baseball

Looking at those charts it's going to depend a great deal on our rotation. If our pitchers shove and JD plays like an MVP we're at least in the picture. I don't like to set myself up for disappointment though, so I remain sceptical.

 

[Nineteen67]

Either they’ll be in the WC hunt or they’ll be trading off FA.

My guess, the biggest anticipation of the year will what they get for JD and other pending FA at the deadline(s)

 

[Hoverhand]

Either they’ll be in the WC hunt or they’ll be trading off FA.

My guess, the biggest anticipation of the year will what they get for JD and other pending FA at the deadline(s)

Having the Donaldson, Bautista, Encarnacion playoff core wiped out within two years of the last playoff appearance is such a sad thought.

But very likely.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Having the Donaldson, Bautista, Encarnacion playoff core wiped out within two years of the last playoff appearance is such a sad thought.

But very likely.

Was a hell of a ride though. Lots of memories.

 

[Nineteen67]

Having the Donaldson, Bautista, Encarnacion playoff core wiped out within two years of the last playoff appearance is such a sad thought.

But very likely.

People get older everyday...

What would be even more sad is to get nothing for JD but a 2nd round pick.....let’s hope someone is in need of an aging 3b

 

[phillipmike]

The projections for this Jays team reminds me a lot of the Royals of 2015;

2015 Royals WAR vs 2018 Projected WAR for the Jays

Position Players:
Cain (6.5 WAR) - Donaldson (6.1)
Moustakas (3.7) - Pillar (2.7)
Hosmer (3.5) - Martin (2.6)
Gordon (2.8) - Smoak (2.2)
Morales (2.0) - Grichuk (2.0)
Dyson (1.8) - Tulowitzski (1.9)
Perez (1.6) - Travis (1.7)
Escobar (1.5) - Solarte (1.1)
Zobrist (1.2) - Granderson (0.9)
Orlando (1.0) - Pearce (0.9)
Cuthebert (0.3) - Morales (0.6)
Colon (0.2) - Diaz (0.5)
Total: Royals (26.1) - Jays (23.2)

Pitching:
Ventura (2.6) - Stroman (4.1)
Volquez (2.5) - Happ (2.9)
Davis (2.0) - Sanchez (2.0)
Duffy (1.1.) - Osuna (1.6)
Cueto (1.0) - Estrada (1.6)
Young (0.9) - Garcia (1.5)
Madson (0.9) - Biagini (1.0)
Holland (0.7) - Tepera (0.6)
Herrera (0.6) - Oh (0.4)
Medlen (0.5) - Loup (0.3)
Blanton (0.5) - Barnes (0.3)
Vargas (0.4) - Borucki (0.2)
Morales (0.4) - Axford (0.1)
Total: Royals (14.1) - Jays (16.6)

All: Royals (40.2) - Jays (39.8)

Have to factor in a few things; the Royals team was much younger thus making them less injury prone theoretically.

However, it wouldnt be out of the realm of possibly to have Smoak repeat his 2017 season and/or someone like Travis or Grichuk having a career year to bring the offenses closer. Jays have a clear edge in the rotation; more top end talent and depth to go with Sanchez who can easily double his projection if healthy. Royals had the clear edge in the pen though. This doesnt include deadline deals for guys like Cueto and Zobrist too.

Of course im not saying the 2018 Jays can win the division and the WS like the 2015 Royals did. Rather, the 2018 Jays have upside and depth like the 2015 Royals where it remains to be seen if that can translate on the field and into wins. The Royals didnt have to compete with a team like the Red Sox nor the Yankees in their division back in 2015 but looking at the depth and star talent this should definitely be enough to snag a wildcard spot.

 

[theaub]

Maybe I'm not much of a cumulative WAR guy but how does a 95 win team have the same WAR as a team that's projected to win 86 games?

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I don't think we can say this with any certainty, and in any case it's a useless hypothetical. What happened happened. As far as this season goes as I said, pitching is always volatile healthwise. It wouldn't be surprising at all to lose at least one to injury, so basically that leaves us with a Donaldson injury away from being not very good. If it wasn't his free agent season, and he didn't have every reason to stay healthy and play well I might even be more pessimistic. Having said that, he's older, is playing on turf, plays somewhat all-out/ recklessly, and has had some aches and pains this spring already I believe.

Similar to assuming a team is a unlikely to make the playoffs prior to a season starting.

 

[phillipmike]

Maybe I'm not much of a cumulative WAR guy but how does a 95 win team have the same WAR as a team that's projected to win 86 games?

Run Differential had the 2015 Royals as a 90 win team. It isnt an exact science but a lot has to do with luck.

Royals are lucky enough to have played in a weaker division.

 

[Nineteen67]

Maybe I'm not much of a cumulative WAR guy but how does a 95 win team have the same WAR as a team that's projected to win 86 games?

I think it’s based partly on who the team has available as a replacement player.

 

[BlueForever75]

The Jays have improved where they needed to:

1) Replaced a negative war RF with one that wont be hard to be better (Grichuk)
2) Replaced a LF platoon with a better one in Granderson/Pearce rather then Carerra/Pearce
3) Replaced Barney/Goins with Solarte/Diaz
4) Replaced a rotation door at #5 spot in rotation with Garcia

Those changes are pluses any way you want to look at it.

Now if we can get the following we are laughing:

1) 25+ starts from Sanchez
2) Donaldson rebounding from a down season
3) Tulo playing in 100+ games
4) Travis playing in 100+ games
5) Osuna doesn't blow 10 saves

We should be in the playoff race and even contending for division as long as some things break our way this season.

 

[Morgs]

"Donaldson rebounding from a down season"

149 wRC+ (11th for more players more than 450 AB)

On pace for +7 WAR (Would have been 3rd)

 

[theaub]

The entire season IMO is rotation health, because you have Biagini and a vast pit of sadness beyond the five guys breaking camp.

The vast pit of sadness is still miles better than the black hole of sadness that we had last year of rotation depth, but there's a pretty direct correlation between 'our team was carried by pitching in 2016' and having seven guys make starts for that entire season.

 

[BlueForever75]

"Donaldson rebounding from a down season"

149 wRC+ (11th for more players more than 450 AB)

On pace for +7 WAR (Would have been 3rd)

Team would have been better with Donaldson in lineup for 150+ games like the previous 3 seasons is my point!!! Not necessarily a bad season just not as productive due to 200 less at bats. Is that worth another 3 wins??? Probably.

 

[phillipmike]

Heyman reporting that the Braves are no longer interested in Bautista. They have no confirmation on the Rays still being interested. Beats the report of the Astros signing him on the weekend.

If Bautista is willing to accept 1M or less i cant see why him and Indians cant work anything out.

 

[Nineteen67]

The entire season IMO is rotation health, because you have Biagini and a vast pit of sadness beyond the five guys breaking camp.

The vast pit of sadness is still miles better than the black hole of sadness that we had last year of rotation depth, but there's a pretty direct correlation between 'our team was carried by pitching in 2016' and having seven guys make starts for that entire season.

They’ll have to carry a team that won’t score much