Blue Jays Discussion: Alright, no more discontent. Just baseball | ST in Mtl: StL @ Tor | Mar 26/27 7pm ET/4pm PT

[Muston Atthews]

Anyone excited about tonight? Anyone see a lineup?

Would love to see Guerrero at 3B and Bo at SS. With the exception of Travis at 2B that might be our main lineup in 2019.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Someone take Morales, please? Someone?

 

[Suntouchable13]

Donaldson is not in Montreal?

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Donaldson is not in Montreal?

Donaldson and Travis won't play.

 

[phillipmike]

Donaldson is not in Montreal?

Neither is Travis. Both are taking the games off for rest i assume.

 

[Kurtz]

They're taking the series off to stay off the garbage field in Mtl.

 

[showtime8]

They're taking the series off to stay off the garbage field in Mtl.

So they can come back to Toronto and play on the moderately better turf.... lol

 

[Kurtz]

So they can come back to Toronto and play on the moderately better turf.... lol

JD and Travis play mostly on the soft dirt down here - there's really no reason for them to risk it on that surface in MTL.

...I guess JD could have DHd, but that'd rob the fans from the glory of seeing Fat Mo.

 

[Morgs]

I guess things can go wrong for other teams in the East as well..

 

[phillipmike]

Greg Bird out 6-8 weeks after ankle surgery.

 

[phillipmike]

Wonder if Bautista shaves his beard and run to Cashman and say that he can play 1B.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Greg Bird out 6-8 weeks after ankle surgery.

Feel a little bad for Bird. He's essentially the Yankees version of Travis, except he was magically projected for ~130 games (vs. Travis' ~95), and has never surpassed 200 MLB PA's or accumulated 1.0 fWAR.

Now that I think of it, it was kind of silly how people were expecting a full season out of Bird, yet were also assuming Travis would snap in two as soon as he took a ground ball in Spring Training.

 

[hockeywiz542]

The timing of this year’s series hasn’t helped. The change from a weekend to Monday and Tuesday nights was forced upon organizers when the start of the regular season was switched from Sunday night to Thursday. The Jays are expected to draw about 25,000 each night here, down from what has routinely been close to 50,000. Still, 50,000 fans for two exhibition games between teams that do not call the host city home is solid support. Consider that Tampa Bay played 78 of its 80 home dates in 2017 in front of paid crowds of less than 25,000. And those games counted.

But there are perception problems for the return of big-league baseball. Yes, there is still the important financial support of successful businessmen like Stephen Bronfman and Mitch Garber, who have been constant cheerleaders of the Expos dream. But a huge blow came late last year when the face of the expansion/relocation bid, Mayor Denis Coderre, was defeated in a re-election bid by challenger Valerie Plante.

Expos supporters had relied on the cheerleading of Coderre and his contagious enthusiasm. He even flew to New York for an unofficial visit to meet with Manfred, who advised him to tone down the rhetoric and line up plans for a new stadium before anything else. He did.

Then came the victory by Plante, a dog lover and self-proclaimed “soccer girl.” Part of Plante’s campaign had included a finger-pointing accusation that Coderre and the baseball group were going behind taxpayers’ backs and spending public money they didn’t have. After her win, despite tepidly proclaiming she “likes baseball,” Plante has put off a voter referendum for four more years. Garber argued last November on CBC’s Daybreak that a voter referendum might not be necessary.

“Maybe the (financial) demands on the city are so minimal that there’s no need to get the entire city to be coming out to vote for baseball,” Gerber said. “If most of the money is being put in by private individuals and there’s a real benefit to the city, I don’t see the real need for it at that point.”

 

[Brock Boeser Laser Show]

I feel like if MLB ever expands to Canada it should be to Vancouver.

Obviously there is a lot of hurdles (a stadium being the obvious one) but I think it could work here much like Hockey in Seattle.

 

[Suntouchable13]

I have a feeling Tulo will not play at all this year.

 

[Emerica]

Alright alright get on with it

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Touché. And of course, I can't make such a statement with certainly. However, employing ceteris paribus, I can prove a measured hypothesis regarding last season, that can then govern how I view this upcoming season.

I get what you're trying to say, but I don't think "prove" is the right word for your purposes. We're talking about a hypothetical that can never be tested and is thus unfalsifiable.

You have a theory based on a reasonable inference, but your theory cannot be proven unless you have a time machine and a magic healing wand.

Do I think the Jays would have been in the thick of it if Sanchez and Donaldson weren't injured? Sure. Do I think it was guaranteed? Probably not. The closest playoff team we were to was Minny, who was the wildcard. They had 9 more wins than us and then bowed out in one game.

Let's say a healthy Donaldson (2016 version) gives us 2.6 more wins than he did in 2017 (7.6 vs 5); and Sanchez gives us the 3.8 wins he did in 2016 vs the 0 in 2017. In theory that still puts us short by 2.5 give or take.

I don't think your assumption about last year is unfair by any means. But I don't get why you turn around and jump on me for a comment that is much less declarative or predictive than your own, and which will actually get to be tested and proven right or wrong this coming season. I don't think it was any more unreasonable to be sceptical of our chances even just based on projections.

We're projected to have the 6th best war in the AL behind Houston, New York, Boston, Cleveland, and slightly behind Anaheim. So the projections have us out as of now. We have to outplay the projection.

Then even if we beat out Anaheim for the wildcard spot, we face either Boston or New York (who project to better than us by 8 & 11 WAR respectively) in a one game playoff. If that's the best case scenario, can you really not see why I would be less than sanguine?

 

[Suntouchable13]

I get what you're trying to say, but I don't think "prove" is the right word for your purposes. We're talking about a hypothetical that can never be tested and is thus unfalsifiable.

You have a theory based on a reasonable inference, but your theory cannot be proven unless you have a time machine and a magic healing wand.

Do I think the Jays would have been in the thick of it if Sanchez and Donaldson weren't injured? Sure. Do I think it was guaranteed? Probably not. The closest playoff team we were to was Minny, who was the wildcard. They had 9 more wins than us and then bowed out in one game.

Let's say a healthy Donaldson (2016 version) gives us 2.6 more wins than he did in 2017 (7.6 vs 5); and Sanchez gives us the 3.8 wins he did in 2016 vs the 0 in 2017. In theory that still puts us short by 2.5 give or take.

I don't think your assumption about last year is unfair by any means. But I don't get why you turn around and jump on me for a comment that is much less declarative or predictive than your own, and which will actually get to be tested and proven right or wrong this coming season. I don't think it was any more unreasonable to be sceptical of our chances even just based on projections.

We're projected to have the 6th best war in the AL behind Houston, New York, Boston, Cleveland, and slightly behind Anaheim. So the projections have us out as of now. We have to outplay the projection. Then even if we beat out Anaheim for the wildcard spot, we face either Boston or New York (who project to better than us by 8 & 11 WAR respectively) in a one game playoff. If that's the utmost upside, can you not see why I would be less than sanguine?

People put so much stock in projections. The game is played on the field not on a spreadsheet. So if projections were always 100% accurate, then why don't we just skip the whole 162 games and go straight to the playoffs?

 

[Eyedea]

People put so much stock in projections. The game is played on the field not on a spreadsheet. So if projections were always 100% accurate, then why don't we just skip the whole 162 games and go straight to the playoffs?

The game on the field has transformed demonstrably due to those spreadsheets.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

People put so much stock in projections. The game is played on the field not on a spreadsheet. So if projections were always 100% accurate, then why don't we just skip the whole 162 games and go straight to the playoffs?

I'm aware of that. This is self evident. I was responding to an argument based on hypothetical projections, so that's the framework in which I couched my position. Otherwise we're just arguing based on completely subjective criteria, which is basically useless.

 

[Philkessel]

Hi I have 4 hard copy tickets for the Season opener I am trying to sell Section 213R for face value. If anyone is interested feel free to DM me.

 

[canucksfan]

Bichette is the game now

 

[canucksfan]

Vlad is in the game now. Big cheers for him.

 

[Nineteen67]

Watching the Leafs - what is the score

 

[supermann_98]

Hi I have 4 hard copy tickets for the Season opener I am trying to sell Section 213R for face value. If anyone is interested feel free to DM me.

I'm interested