Blue Jays Discussion: Alright, no more discontent. Just baseball | ST in Mtl: StL @ Tor | Mar 26/27 7pm ET/4pm PT

[theaub]

Maybe I'm biased from years and years of awesome offenses here, but I can't see the Jays being a bottom five offense again.

 

[Suntouchable13]

I'm not really expecting much from the Jays this year. It seems like too much has to go right for us to make the playoffs. All I hope is that our prospects continue to develop and we get a good haul for our impending free agents at the trade deadline.

I don't get one thing. Why is it that only for us too many things have to go right in order to just make the wild card? The other teams around us have just as many question marks as us. I don't get it.

 

[Discoverer]

Maybe I'm not much of a cumulative WAR guy but how does a 95 win team have the same WAR as a team that's projected to win 86 games?

I'm a pretty big cumulative WAR guy because there's a strong correlation between WAR and wins, but those Royals were an enormous outlier in terms of outperforming their Pythag and Baseruns records.

 

[Discoverer]

Maybe I'm biased from years and years of awesome offenses here, but I can't see the Jays being a bottom five offense again.

They shouldn't have to give 1700+ plate appearances to the like of Goins, Barney Coghlan, Refsnyder, and the corpse of Jose Bautista. That alone should be a pretty enormous boost.

They actually have a nice, well-rounded lineup.

 

[Nineteen67]

Maybe I'm biased from years and years of awesome offenses here, but I can't see the Jays being a bottom five offense again.

I don’t know about bottom 5 but it won’t be one dimensional either, like 2016. At least it better not be.

 

[BlueForever75]

I don't get one thing. Why is it that only for us too many things have to go right in order to just make the wild card? The other teams around us have just as many question marks as us. I don't get it.

My point exactly. Finally someone that agrees!!!

Yankees have questions:

1) Who plays 1st now that Byrd is out once again? Walker?
2) Who plays 2B?
3) Does Judge repeat what he did last season?
4) Who plays 3B?
5) How does Stanton adjust to new league?
6) Will players adapt to Boone as manager?
7) Does Severino repeat last season?
8) Which Sabathia and Tanaka you getting?
9) Does Montegomery get better?
10) Does Betances rediscover his lethal arm?
11) Who plays CF? Hicks? Elsbury?

Red Sox

1) How long is Pedroria out? Will he come back like last season?
2) Which Hanley you getting?
3) Does Bradley rebound from last season?
4) Does Devers continue progress at 3B?
5) Which Porcello you getting?
6) Which Price you getting?
7) Is Wright a wife beater or what he showed last season?
8) Is their bullpen any good?
9) Does JD Martinez repeat last season, or back to normal career numbers prior to last season?


There are questions everywhere. But why are we so pessimistic about our Jays????

 

[phillipmike]

That's good depth in the AAA pen too with Breslow, Santos, and Albuquerque all going down. Got Mayza, Dermody, Ramirez and others too.

Osuna, Oh, Loup, Axford, Clippard, Tepera and Barnes are probably going to cost you under 12M.

 

[phillipmike]

Neil Walker is playing 2B and Drury is playing 3B. Hicks will likely play CF with Ellsbury stapled to the bench unless there is an injury.

But outside of that all your questions are relevant and make sense. For me there are questions for every team and some more than others.

I dont like rewarding playoff spots in the off-season hence why you play the season out. With half the league racing to the bottom and the opportunity costs of getting the players we got for very little i didnt see any other choice but to go the route the Jays went - it just made too much sense. It was a buyer's market and outside of Donaldson no one else was worth selling considering what others went for. And even Donaldson likely only had few suitors.

 

[zeke]

getting closer.


bullpen battle:

Osuna: 6.1ip, 7k/0bb, 1.42era

Biagini: 18.0ip, 19k/6bb, 6.50era
Oh: 1.0ip, 1k/0bb, 0.00era
Tepera: 7.0ip, 6k/3bb, 9.00era
Barnes: 8.0ip, 12k/3bb, 7.88era
Loup: 6.2ip, 10k/1bb, 2.70era
Clippard: 7.0ip, 9k/2bb, 3.86era
Axford: 8.0ip, 11k/2bb, 1.13era
Mayza: 10.2ip, 9k/2bb, 1.69era

there just might be a surprise cut or two here.

 

[Brock Boeser Laser Show]

getting closer.


bullpen battle:

Osuna: 6.1ip, 7k/0bb, 1.42era

Biagini: 18.0ip, 19k/6bb, 6.50era
Oh: 1.0ip, 1k/0bb, 0.00era
Tepera: 7.0ip, 6k/3bb, 9.00era
Barnes: 8.0ip, 12k/3bb, 7.88era
Loup: 6.2ip, 10k/1bb, 2.70era
Clippard: 7.0ip, 9k/2bb, 3.86era
Axford: 8.0ip, 11k/2bb, 1.13era
Mayza: 10.2ip, 9k/2bb, 1.69era

there just might be a surprise cut or two here.

I don't think spring stats are worth much to be honest.

Take the 7 best arms regardless of numbers.

 

[zeke]

I don't think spring stats are worth much to be honest.

Take the 7 best arms regardless of numbers.

with relievers, there's a good argument to just take who is throwing the best. and anyways, they're all fairly comparable quality arms, other than Osuna.

 

[Suntouchable13]

My point exactly. Finally someone that agrees!!!

Yankees have questions:

1) Who plays 1st now that Byrd is out once again? Walker?
2) Who plays 2B?
3) Does Judge repeat what he did last season?
4) Who plays 3B?
5) How does Stanton adjust to new league?
6) Will players adapt to Boone as manager?
7) Does Severino repeat last season?
8) Which Sabathia and Tanaka you getting?
9) Does Montegomery get better?
10) Does Betances rediscover his lethal arm?
11) Who plays CF? Hicks? Elsbury?

Red Sox

1) How long is Pedroria out? Will he come back like last season?
2) Which Hanley you getting?
3) Does Bradley rebound from last season?
4) Does Devers continue progress at 3B?
5) Which Porcello you getting?
6) Which Price you getting?
7) Is Wright a wife beater or what he showed last season?
8) Is their bullpen any good?
9) Does JD Martinez repeat last season, or back to normal career numbers prior to last season?


There are questions everywhere. But why are we so pessimistic about our Jays????

I think that those teams are being over hyped because of the supposed "star power" they have. We don't have those guys yet that jump out at you, except for JD. Everybody goes goo goo gaga over Judge, Stanton, Price, Sale, JD Martinez. Just because teams have those stars, does not mean they will win either.

 

[Brock Boeser Laser Show]

with relievers, there's a good argument to just take who is throwing the best. and anyways, they're all fairly comparable quality arms, other than Osuna.

yeah but 6-10 innings can be deceiving in either direction. It's hard to really make a fair comparison based off stats because one guy could pitch to major leaguers while the other gets to toy with AA/AAA players. One guy could pitch with major league defenders behind him while the next could have a bunch of raw AA players behind him. One bad outing and your ERA is pooched. There really is little value to spring training numbers and I expect half the bullpen will be a revolving door the first few months of the season.

 

[zeke]

yeah but 6-10 innings can be deceiving in either direction. It's hard to really make a fair comparison based off stats because one guy could pitch to major leaguers while the other gets to toy with AA/AAA players. One guy could pitch with major league defenders behind him while the next could have a bunch of raw AA players behind him. One bad outing and your ERA is pooched. There really is little value to spring training numbers and I expect half the bullpen will be a revolving door the first few months of the season.

hey the numbers are just there because that's all we have right now.

I could see an argument for any of those arms making the team to start, and any of them being cut.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Similar to assuming a team is a unlikely to make the playoffs prior to a season starting.

Except I didn't assume anything. I said I don't expect much. That's a pretty different thing from your statement of what WOULD have happened.

 

[canucksfan]

It's been said before unlike last year the Jays depth at AAA with younger players is much better than last year.

 

[phillipmike]

Anyone excited about tonight? Anyone see a lineup?

Would love to see Guerrero at 3B and Bo at SS. With the exception of Travis at 2B that might be our main lineup in 2019.

 

[phillipmike]

Ben Wagner to fill play-by-play for Blue Jays in 2018

Didnt see it posted but it sounds like Ben Wagner is replacing Jerry Howarth.

 

[phillipmike]

Fangraphs projects the Jays rotation to be 13th;

2018 Positional Power Rankings: Starting Rotation (#1-15) | FanGraphs Baseball

With all the fanfare going to the Red Sox and Yankees, the Blue Jays are lurking under the radar. Sure, their ace (Stroman) is dealing with a shoulder issue, but he’s simply having his first start pushed back to Saturday of the opening series (even if, by some reactions, you'd think he’s out for months). There isn’t a lot of flash in the rotation, but there is some substance. Estrada and Happ answer the bell consistently. The Jays have three pitchers in the top 50 for innings the last two years: Stroman (seventh), Estrada (26th), and Happ (41st). This puts them in a group of eight teams with three or more in the top 50.

Sanchez essentially lost 2017 to blister and fingernail issues, but he has spent the offseason figuring out how to avoid the same fate in 2018 while also bulking up to improve his stamina. He is just a year removed from a scintillating season that netted him Cy Young consideration (for which he finished seventh in the voting). His raw stuff makes it easy to see more strikeouts, which could be a wise path over his usual grounder-heavy approach given the infield defense in Toronto. Don’t sleep on Garcia putting together some nice work, too. He’s usually good for a couple nice strings of quality starts when healthy.

Biagini is back in a starting role, but that has him ticketed for Triple-A to start the season. It’s hard to see on the surface with a 5.34 ERA, but his 4.27 FIP points to the underlying skills being better than the results. The problem was the blow-up starts for Biagini. He only made 18 starts but allowed five-plus earned runs in five of them. At worst, there’s enough to be a capable fifth-starter type when injury crops. With some development, he could be a worthy mid-rotation arm fueled by ground balls and solid command of a four-pitch arsenal.

Guerrieri was once a big-time prospect for the Rays, but injuries have severely stunted the growth of the 25-year-old. He lost most of 2013-14 to TJ surgery, while more elbow issues in 2017 limited him to just two starts. Perhaps a bullpen role will allow Guerrieri to accentuate the best of his arsenal and find some MLB success. I can’t wait for the great interleague duel between St. Louis and Toronto featuring Austin Gomber and Ryan Borucki. Who doesn’t want that Gomber/Borucki matchup on a Friday night in June? C’mon!

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Except I didn't assume anything. I said I don't expect much. That's a pretty different thing from your statement of what WOULD have happened.

Touché. And of course, I can't make such a statement with certainly. However, employing ceteris paribus, I can prove a measured hypothesis regarding last season, that can then govern how I view this upcoming season.

 

[ShaneFalco]

There's no need for profanity

 

[Nineteen67]

Anyone excited about tonight? Anyone see a lineup?

Would love to see Guerrero at 3B and Bo at SS. With the exception of Travis at 2B that might be our main lineup in 2019.

No. Playing exhibition games on turf doesn’t excite me. Would rather they play one more in Dunedin.

 

[Vito_81]

Ben Wagner to fill play-by-play for Blue Jays in 2018

Didnt see it posted but it sounds like Ben Wagner is replacing Jerry Howarth.

Good!

So glad that its not Wilner.

 

[phillipmike]

No. Playing exhibition games on turf doesn’t excite me. Would rather they play one more in Dunedin.

I prefer not playing in Montreal but i like that it is a packed house and gives you an MLB atmosphere - almost like we get 2 opening day games.

 

[theaub]

Packed house is a bit of a misnomer this time around considering the upper deck isn't open and there's still plenty of seats available in the outfield sections of the 100/200.

Speaking of that, must be 15K seats available for the weekend games. Life, fast, etc