Interesting article on failed rebuilds of the past and why they failed.
Lessons From Rebuilds Past
I'm most worried about 1 and 5.
We haven't fully committed to a rebuild (though hopefully if we're out of it we can get good prospects for our UFAs), and because of it we don't have any top prospects on the same timetable
as Vlad and Bo other than Alford.
Jansen? Borucki? McGuire? Maybe Urena & Tellez? Zeuch is starting in NH this year and could be a fast riser. Pannone would've been in this class if he hadn't gotten suspended. Reid-Foley could be a pen arm if he gets his **** together.
That's MLB Pipeline's 6th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 14th, and 15th ranked Jays prospects (not in the same order. The order of ranking would be Jansen, Borucki, Zeuch, Reid-Foley, Urena, McGuire, Tellez) That's 7 guys who are projected with ETAs of the next season or two, which is the Vladdy/Bo timeline. And considering that Vlad/Bo/Alford are the top 3, that's 7 of the 12 guys who are ranked in the rest of the top 15 of the system.
Now if you want to argue that there aren't super elite guys on that timetable, then of course there aren't. The only other player who looks like they have a really really high end ceiling to them right now is Pearson, who is probably a couple years away from a pen debut and another year after that from being a starter (think Sanchez) But it's not really an indictment of the Jays system to have that setup. No system ends up graduating more than 2 or 3 really special prospects in a given year or even over a couple of years. Usually you find a special guy every couple of years and a smaller cadre of talented-regular level guys to surround them.
Also #1 would've basically meant kissing the playoff runs goodbye because the rebuilding effort that begat the prospects that are the next wave began in earnest about 4-5 years ago (Alford was a 2012 pick, and Jansen was 2013, but many of the bigger names were 2014-2016 draft/signees.) So going "all-in" would've required blowing it up before we even saw the playoffs. At which point people would likely be sitting here complaining that the team gave up a shot at the playoffs to start from scratch again with no guarantees.
Looking at the lessons in that list:
#1) Go all-in or don't: Discussed above. It could've been better, but the fanbase may not have tolerated that.
#2) Maximize your trade return: we'll see how that goes if they decide to blow it up this year/next and the big money MLB talent starts flowing out)
#3) Acquire that final vet piece when necessary: Ironically, this is perhaps what leaves them where they are now, because prospect capital was spent getting guys for the playoff run, which meant that the Jays could've had Hoffman and Norris and some depth arms (for as much as they might be worth). Otherwise we won't see how this plays out until we're into the 2020-22 seasons and the core starts really coming together
#4) Don't rely on pitchers: They're doing fine. Yeah Pearson is a headliner, but the bulk of the sexy prospects are position players. They're in a position to be able to use young established pitchers like Stroman and Sanchez to be the vets for a rebuilt team and avoid the whole TINSTAAPP issue as much as you reasonably can.
#5) Time prospects to hit their ceilings together: This is harder than the piece makes it out to sound, and as discussed above I think they're doing an OK job of it.
