Blue Jays Discussion: Alright, no more discontent. Just baseball | ST in Mtl: StL @ Tor | Mar 26/27 7pm ET/4pm PT

[The Nemesis]

1. Justin Smoak's three year averages: .345 wOBA / 115 wRC+ / .233 ISO
2. Granderson (118 wRC+), Grichuk (109 wRC+), Pearce (108 wRC+), Morales (113 wRC+). Those are three year averages, not 3 year peaks.
3. I imagine sprinkler heads and blisters from hell are the norm rather than the exception

Sprinkler heads are the #1 killer of baseball players. Every year 60 players die in rogue sprinkler attacks. I still remember the 1994 Grapefruit Massacre. Sure, they said the season was destroyed by a work stoppage, but the reality was that a vicious assault by a swarm of sprinklers actually killed the entire Kansas City Royals roster and MLB and MLBPA concocted the strike story to shield us from the grisly truth.

1. Donaldson is not guarantee, and I suppose Stanton is.
2. Sanchez has paper fingers, agreed. And just like Rich Hill, he'll miss the entire season after dealing with such issues.
3. Estrada and Grichuk can be the exact same as they were in 2017, and still be valuable pieces of a playoff contender

Don't you know how prognosticating works? You assume everything bad that can happen to you will while simultaneously presuming that everyone else gets every break they possibly can because reasons. Josh Donaldson is made of play-dough held together with bailing twine while Stanton has Wolverine-esque adamantium bone plating. Sanchez is actually a giant walking blister given human form while Rich Hill just had surgery to replace his regular fingers with leather work gloves. And Estrada/Grichuk are low-key probable to simply abandon the season when they hear that hte McRib is back at a small region of McDonalds in and aroune Tempe, Arizona and decide to become itinerant monks devoted to traveling the desert in a rented Gremlin in order to spread the life-changing gospel of the holy mysterywich.

Come on, Quimby. This is really basic stuff. I expected more from you...

 

[TF97]

Everyone else was getting 1-2 years and the O's still get suckered into 4?

It’s almost as if you are surprised by the level of incompetence the Orioles are capable of. I expect more from you, Eyedea

 

[Eyedea]

It’s almost as if you are surprised by the level of incompetence the Orioles are capable of. I expect more from you, Eyedea

You know I'm less surprised that they were actually interested in signing him. I mean, his home/road splits are bad, and he has cut his best pitch usage in half post-TJS, so he's a perfect candidate for them. But to still pay market price two weeks away from opening day is, yes, extremely surprising to me.

 

[phillipmike]

Lynn and Garcia would have been much better deals for the O's than committing multiple years to Cashner and Cobb along with losing draft picks - even guys like Anderson, Lackey or Hellickson. Truly baffling and im sure it is Angelos but if the reports are true it is troubling that guys like Kenny Williams and Dan Duquette were ownership's first choices for Jays President. Duquette had a great start to his O's tenure but little in terms of the system and just commitments to old players.

Not that the O's commitments are onerous but Cashner and Cobb arent worth those deals in this market. They do have over 50M coming off the books this season. Their commitments would have only been at 45.5M with Davis, Trumbo and O'Day (both Trumbo and O'Day come off the books the following year). Now with Cashner and Cobb they have 70M committed to their 2019 team. Such head scratching moves but at least they actually targeted needs unlike other teams. Still stupid as they are a team that should be rebuilding - oh well takes them longer to get better.

 

[phillipmike]

If anyone was curious - Jays pre-season expected win total on Fangraphs;

2015: 83 wins
2016: 84 wins
2017: 86 wins
2018: 86 wins

 

[Anthrax442]

 

[BlueForever75]

About time. What took so long!!!! We are a week away with starting the season.

 

[Brown Dog]

Sprinkler heads are the #1 killer of baseball players. Every year 60 players die in rogue sprinkler attacks. I still remember the 1994 Grapefruit Massacre. Sure, they said the season was destroyed by a work stoppage, but the reality was that a vicious assault by a swarm of sprinklers actually killed the entire Kansas City Royals roster and MLB and MLBPA concocted the strike story to shield us from the grisly truth.



Don't you know how prognosticating works? You assume everything bad that can happen to you will while simultaneously presuming that everyone else gets every break they possibly can because reasons. Josh Donaldson is made of play-dough held together with bailing twine while Stanton has Wolverine-esque adamantium bone plating. Sanchez is actually a giant walking blister given human form while Rich Hill just had surgery to replace his regular fingers with leather work gloves. And Estrada/Grichuk are low-key probable to simply abandon the season when they hear that hte McRib is back at a small region of McDonalds in and aroune Tempe, Arizona and decide to become itinerant monks devoted to traveling the desert in a rented Gremlin in order to spread the life-changing gospel of the holy mysterywich.

Come on, Quimby. This is really basic stuff. I expected more from you...

This comes off as extremely cocky when referring to a team that was 10 games under .500 last year.

That's a pretty big gap to be made up by the additions of guys like Grichuk, Granderson, Diaz, Solarte, a new 5th starter, bullpen depth, and presumed starting pitching health.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

That's a pretty big gap to be made up by the additions of guys like Grichuk, Granderson, Diaz, Solarte, a new 5th starter, bullpen depth, and presumed starting pitching health.

Wait a minute....you can't play the "2017 team only had X amount of wins, and has to fill a ten win gap" while ignoring an incremental 200 PA's (and ~2 fWAR) of Josh Donaldson, 230 PA's (and ~2 fWAR) of Devon Travis, and 150 IP (and ~3.8 fWAR/5.1 bWAR) of Aaron Sanchez. And those numbers are above replacement level players....not the ~-0.5 fWAR\bWAR tripe that filled those holes in '17.

That just seems like you're intentionally seeking a negative outcome.

 

[Discoverer]

This comes off as extremely cocky when referring to a team that was 10 games under .500 last year.

That's a pretty big gap to be made up by the additions of guys like Grichuk, Granderson, Diaz, Solarte, a new 5th starter, bullpen depth, and presumed starting pitching health.

Fun fact: replacing 2017 Carrera and Bautista with 2017 Granderson and Grichuk, 2017 Goins/Barney/Coghlan/Refsnyder/etc. with 2017 Diaz and Solarte, and 2017 fifth starter junk with 2017 Garcia makes a difference of more than nine wins. Switch out those players last year and you have an ~85 win team that either makes the playoffs or, at the very least, battles right up to the end of the season... and that still assumes Sanchez and Donaldson and Martin and Tulo and Travis miss all that time with injuries.

Obviously it's 2018 now and you can't assume all those performances translate, but 2017 was a down season from half the new guys, so it's not like we're stretching expectations by thinking they can repeat those performances.

Sure, they didn't make any big, splashy moves to add a star player to really push them over the top, but if you think these guys are just minor additions then you're vastly understating the amount of garbage production the Jays got from the bottom of the roster last year. These are substantial improvements over last year's team.

 

[Nineteen67]

The schedule seems to be more favourable this year.
They replaced a few guys with guys that have more upside.
Donaldson, Sanchez and Travis are really good players that were sorely missed last year

On paper this team is capable of winning 85 games.

Im pulling for Smoak and Morales, but if the Jays don’t contend for a playoff spot, my guess would be because the middle of the line-up didn’t produce enough.

Other than that, not much we can do now but watch and see.

 

[zeke]

This comes off as extremely cocky when referring to a team that was 10 games under .500 last year.

That's a pretty big gap to be made up by the additions of guys like Grichuk, Granderson, Diaz, Solarte, a new 5th starter, bullpen depth, and presumed starting pitching health.

well, the new guys did collectively put up 7+war last year, and none of them had particularly good years, so even without presuming greater health, that puts them up over .500.

and that doesn't even consider that the guys they are replacing were all negative value players last year, so that would be even more wins added on.

now then maybe add in more normal health for the team, instead of completely missed seasons by young guys like Sanchez and Travis, and we're cooking with gas.

 

[Gargyn]

I just hope come trade deadline it’s clear whether they are a true contender or they’re out of the playoff picture. I have no doubt Donaldson is a goner regardless so I’d either like to see them make some noise in the playoffs or get a good haul for our 3B.

 

[Discoverer]

I just hope come trade deadline it’s clear whether they are a true contender or they’re out of the playoff picture. I have no doubt Donaldson is a goner regardless so I’d either like to see them make some noise in the playoffs or get a good haul for our 3B.

Yeah, whatever the result, I just hope it's a definitive in or out. Being obviously in contention, you obviously keep Donaldson. Being way out, you obviously trade him and any other pending free agents you can get decent value for. Being sort of in contention but a bit of a longshot puts them in a really difficult spot.

 

[BlueForever75]

If the Jays are not in a playoff spot some middle July they start to trade away assets including JD. No need to be on the cusp, if we are in we are buyers if we are out we are sellers.

 

[phillipmike]

In addition what the Jays have going for them (and any other contenders and buyers) is that it is a clear buyer's market... too many sellers and some real impact guys who are pending FAs on teams not expect to do well. So you can get a big upgrade at the deadline for very little in terms of prospects like Arizona did with JD Martinez and the Cubs did with Darvish and the prices might be even lower.

Lucroy, Morrison, Dozier, Machado, Beltre, Cruz, Britton etc.

Then the 2nd tier guys in Suzuki, Harrison, Kinsler, Lowrie, Iglesias, Headley, Moustakas, Jay, Jones, Gomes, Hamels, Lynn, Moore, Santana, Brach, Delgado, Herrera, Familia, Soria, Blevins etc.

I didnt include guys from the Giants, D-Backs, or Rockies (who may more may not be in the race again) and that might add Gonzalez, Blackmon, McCutchen, Pollack, Parra, Corbin, Logan etc.

Of course all these guys wont be available but if the Jays dont suffer a non-Stroman, Sanchez or JD injury then i think they can replace most of the other guys production via trade or depth already on the team. So they could potentially be one big bat and/or arm away from really running away with a wildcard spot and/or challenging for the division. One of Machado/Blackmon/Beltre/Cruz would be a huge middle of the order boost. Cruz is a likely target to be available and probably the easiest as he is a DH-type much like JD Martinez was and he cost very little in terms of impact.

I would keep an eye on the Mariners... If we need a pitcher and only if Felix can rebuild some value; he could be a Verlander type acquisition; has one more very expensive year after this season but can be an impact guy if healthy which is unlikely because of his recent injury history and velocity but worth keeping an eye on. Cruz i have a lot of interest in and worth keeping an eye on Felix.

 

[phillipmike]

I have said this before so i know guys may roll their eyes but to touch with what Zeke, DJQ and Discoverer have said though the Jays were a 76 win team they already had some wins that they gave away. 2017 was a bad/below average year in terms of injury, luck and performance from anyone not named Smoak, Stroman, Osuna, Happ, Estrada and the pen guys. The other guys covered performance and injury where it could easily have taken them to 85 wins in 2017. Of course you cant have health, performance and luck every year like we did in 2016 but if the Jays had 2 of the 3 then they make the playoffs very easily - which brings me to the luck aspect.

Although great overall numbers Osuna lost us 5 more games in 2017 than in 2015 and 2016... he blew 3 saves that led to losses in 2015 and 2016 but that number jumped to 8 in 2017. Had Osuna only blown his average 3 saves in 2017 then we added an extra 5 wins. Or vice versa if he blew 8 saves in 2015 or 2016 then might have lost the division to the Yankees in 2015 having to play the Astros in the wild card and in 2016 we miss the playoffs entirely. Those 5 "extra: blown losses by Osuna or the "luck" factor impacted the Jays negatively in 2017.

Jays had performance in 2015. They had no luck or health in the first half of the season but got a huge boost in both at the mid point.
In 2016 we had all 3 luck, health and performance.
In 2017 we had none maybe be had some performance from our pitchers but that was it.

They need at least 2 of the 3 to make the playoffs and all 3 will have them challenging for the division crown.

 

[Brown Dog]

...not much we can do now but watch and see.

Agreed. But I am also going to drink beers and eat hot dogs.

 

[zeke]

Last Year Value by Position vs. This Year's Average Projection

3B 681pa, 4.9war, 4.7war650 --- 700pa, 6.3war, 5.9war650 --- +1.4war, +1.2war650
1B 698pa, 3.1war, 2.9war650 ---- 700pa, 2.3war, 2.1war650 --- -0.8war, -0.8war650
CF 690pa, 2.0war, 1.9war650 --- 700pa, 3.0war, 2.8war650 --- +1.0war, +0.9war650
2B 609pa, 0.3war, 0.3war650 --- 700pa, 2.4war, 2.2war650 --- +2.1war, +1.9war650
C 648pa, 0.3war, 0.3war650 ---- 640pa, 2.7war, 2.7war650 ---- +2.4war, +2.4war650
LF 660pa, 0.3war, 0.3war650 --- 700pa, 1.5war, 1.4war650 ---- +1.2war, +1.1war650
RF 723pa, 0.2war, 0.2war650 --- 700pa, 1.9war, 1.7war650 ---- +1.7war, +1.5war650
SS 647pa, -0.4war, -0.4war650 -- 700pa, 2.6war, 2.4war650 -- +3.0war, +2.8war650
DH 650pa, -0.6war, -0.6war650 - 700pa, 0.9war, 0.8war650 --- +1.5war, +1.4war650

Hitters: +13.5war, +12.4war650

SP1 33gs, 4.3war, 4.2war32 ------ 31gs, 4.1war, 4.2war650 ---- -0.2war, +0.0war32
SP2 32gs, 3.5war, 3.5war32 ------ 31gs, 3.0war, 3.1war650 ---- -0.5war, -0.4war32
SP3 33gs, 2.2war, 2.1war32 ------ 31gs, 1.7war, 1.7war32 ------ -0.4war, -0.4war32
SP4 32gs, 0.5war, 0.5war32 ----- 32gs, 2.4war, 2.4war32 ------- +1.9war, +1.9war32
SP5 32gs, -0.4war, -0.4war32 --- 38gs, 2.6war, 2.2war32 ------ +3.0war, +2.6war32

Starters: +3.8war, +3.7war32

RP1 64.0ip, 2.2war, 2.2war65 --- 65ip, 1.7war, 1.7war65 -------- -0.5war, -0.5war65
RP2 70.1ip, 1.7war, 1.6war65 ---- 65ip, 0.7war, 0.7war65 ------- -1.0war, -0.9war65
RP3 67.1ip, 1.3war, 1.2war65 ----- 55ip, 0.5war, 0.5war65 ------- -0.8war, -0.7war65
RP4 77.2ip, 1.0war, 0.8war65 ---- 55ip, 0.3war, 0.3war65 ------ -0.7war, -0.5war65
RP5 66.0ip, 0.7war, 0.7war65 --- 75ip, 0.4war, 0.3war65 ------- -0.3war, -0.4war65
RP6 57.2ip, 0.6war, 0.6war65 ----75ip, 0.1war, 0.1war65 ------- -0.5war, -0.5war65
RP7 69.1ip, -1.7war, -1.6war65 --- 60ip, 0.0war, 0.0war65 ------ +1.7war, +1.7war65
RP8 124.1ip, -0.3war, -0.2war65 - 58ip, 0.0war, 0.0war65 ------ +0.3war, +0.2war65

Relievers -1.8war, -1.6war65

 

[BlueForever75]

I totally agree with what some are saying. With 5 less blown saves by Osuna that led to losses in 2017, and better production from replacement players when Tulo, Travis, Martin, Donaldson, and Sanchez all went down. We easily could have seen 10-12 wins added to last seasons win total which would have put us in the playoffs with 85-87 wins.

With this said, Garcia gives us a better option at #5 spot in rotation. Our bullpen looks to be stronger then last season. Both Happ and Estrada are healthy and looking to cash out on FA next off season. And the biggest plus is that anything above 30 innings from Sanchez is a huge plus. He's looking healthy.

As for our depth and health with position players. If Travis and Tulo can give us at least 90 games each, they will produce more then Barney and Goins did combined all season last season. In their absence I like Diaz and Solarte to contribute a hell of a lot more then Goins and Barney. So we are stronger there. Grichuk will give us a plus WAR on what Bautista provided last season, so we are better there. Pearce/Granderson/Hernandez will out perform Carerra/Pearce from last season in LF. Martin will have a better season this season, I just feel it.

Even if Morales and Pillar have the same seasons as last season with no upgrade and Smoak takes a step back slightly. We still have enough depth to cover all the lows from last season.

Oh and I forgot.....Josh Donaldson remains Josh Donaldson which he will going into FA.

How can anyone state the Jays are not a better team then last season, and put them out of contention for the Division???? Sorry I see a 3 horse race for division between Yankees/RedSox/Jays...winner being who has the depth to cover for man games lost!!!! Jays are in a better position then ever this coming season.

Yankees have their holes as do the Red Sox. Anything can happen. Going to be an interesting season and I like being the underdog.

 

[ShaneFalco]

 

[as Pure as Evil]

hello fellow stat junkies. I'm sorry to bug. But I have been searching, for the last couple days and haven't been able to find what I was looking for.

what's the chances that someone here knows of a site where I can find career stats vs specific teams. ive been trying to compile a sheet that will show the sox yanks astros players fared against blue jays pitching. home and away .

 

[The Nemesis]

hello fellow stat junkies. I'm sorry to bug. But I have been searching, for the last couple days and haven't been able to find what I was looking for.

what's the chances that someone here knows of a site where I can find career stats vs specific teams. ive been trying to compile a sheet that will show the sox yanks astros players fared against blue jays pitching. home and away .

I think baseball-reference has that on their splits pages for each player.

 

[phillipmike]

hello fellow stat junkies. I'm sorry to bug. But I have been searching, for the last couple days and haven't been able to find what I was looking for.

what's the chances that someone here knows of a site where I can find career stats vs specific teams. ive been trying to compile a sheet that will show the sox yanks astros players fared against blue jays pitching. home and away .

Nemesis is right, go to the player page - "Splits" - "Career" and scroll down to "Opponent" and "Opponent -- Game Level"

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=happja01&year=Career&t=p

See Happ's for a reference.

 

[Brock Boeser Laser Show]

I believe ESPN has Batter vs Pitcher/Team/Park stats as well.

Baseball Reference probably has more detailed break downs.