Blue Jays Discussion: Alright, no more discontent. Just baseball | ST in Mtl: StL @ Tor | Mar 26/27 7pm ET/4pm PT

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

That's not true. We don't really know what to expect from Smoak. "Good numbers" from guys like Grichuk, Pearce, Morales, and Granderson can hardly be taken for granted. Health concerns for Sanchez and Stroman are real...

1. Justin Smoak's three year averages: .345 wOBA / 115 wRC+ / .233 ISO
2. Granderson (118 wRC+), Grichuk (109 wRC+), Pearce (108 wRC+), Morales (113 wRC+). Those are three year averages, not 3 year peaks.
3. I imagine sprinkler heads and blisters from hell are the norm rather than the exception

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Donaldson is no guarantee to stay healthy, Sanchez had paper fingers last year, Estrada had a down year we would need him to return to form, Grichuk would need to improve.

That's 4 players who need to be different than what they are right now.

1. Donaldson is not guarantee, and I suppose Stanton is.
2. Sanchez has paper fingers, agreed. And just like Rich Hill, he'll miss the entire season after dealing with such issues.
3. Estrada and Grichuk can be the exact same as they were in 2017, and still be valuable pieces of a playoff contender

 

[Brown Dog]

1. Justin Smoak's three year averages: .345 wOBA / 115 wRC+ / .233 ISO
2. Granderson (118 wRC+), Grichuk (109 wRC+), Pearce (108 wRC+), Morales (113 wRC+). Those are three year averages, not 3 year peaks.
3. I imagine sprinkler heads and blisters from hell are the norm rather than the exception

We'll see. Hope I'm wrong and have been many times before.

 

[Hoverhand]

Fun Fact: Marco Estrada is 20 strikeouts away from 1000 on his career.

Should be a fun lil milestone to look out for.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

We'll see. Hope I'm wrong and have been many times before.

Listen, I'll side with JuJu over quantitative measures 8 days of the week man.

 

[Discoverer]

Donaldson is no guarantee to stay healthy

Donaldson's health shouldn't be any more of a concern than the health of literally any player on any other contender. He played 155+ games four straight years, then misses a couple months and suddenly he's someone to be concerned about?

 

[Brown Dog]

Listen, I'll side with JuJu over quantitative measures 8 days of the week man.

Exactly. You can't measure juju.

 

[zeke]

In order to be in the WC conversation we'd need Stroman and Sanchez at the top of their games, to get 1 more good year out of Estrada and Happ, and for Garcia to play moderately well. Then of course you would need a healthy Donaldson, Smoak to maintain his numbers, and players like Morales, Pearce, Grichuk, and Granderson to put good numbers.

Like Brown Dog said a lot of things have to go right.

actually, if as many things go wrong as go right, the jays are likely right in the WC race.

 

[phillipmike]

Just seems like bad juju going on right now with Donaldson entering walk year, so many stop-gap guys, already some injury issues happening, Shatkins saying they'd rather not be trying to compete with this group...

So yeah, I'm going with bad juju.

I dont know, if you are consistent across the board you will see that all of our competitors have same or worse issues;

Angels: Ohtani with elbow inflammation and starting in the minors. Heaney has elbow inflammation. Meyer out for the season. Young is day to day.
Mariners: Felix took a line drive to his forearm - add Cruz and Cano questionable for opening day. Healy broken hand out, Gamel strained oblique, Ramirez strained lat - all will miss opening day.
Twins: Sano investigated for sexual assault. Santana missing opening day and all of April. Starting SS Polanco suspended for 80 games. May recovering from Tommy John.

All of these teams with the exception of the Twins have very little in the upper minors and prospects so if they get off to a bad season they maybe selling. Angels have Richards and Kinsler who are FAs. Mariners have Nelson Cruz. Twins have Mauer, Dozier, Lynn and Escobar so there is incentive for them too to move guys.

Jays on the other hand have a top 10 farm with some strong building blocks already on the roster or on the way. They are in a much better position than their competitors.

 

[BlueForever75]

I believe other then the Red Sox, Yankees, Astros and Indians the Jays in my eyes would be next in line in the AL above everyone else. With this being said, an injury here or there for any of those teams and the Jays are right in the thick of things. Not to mention if their prospects continue to develop as they should, I wouldn't put them that far off the other teams in the not to distant future.

 

[phillipmike]

Brett Anderson back to the A's. No word on MLC or major league deal.

 

[TF97]

Looks like Brett Anderson is headed to the Athletics. With all of Cahill, Anderson, and Buchholz being picked up in recent days, Feldman is still out there as a depth starter.

 

[TheTotalPackage]

I always side on optimism heading into a season, and think the Jays have as good as chance as the others to not only win a Wild Card spot, but also challenge for the division. There's a reason why they play 162 games on the field and not on paper.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Naysayer!

 

[BlueForever75]

I always side on optimism heading into a season, and think the Jays have as good as chance as the others to not only win a Wild Card spot, but also challenge for the division. There's a reason why they play 162 games on the field and not on paper.

Couldn't agree with you more. The Jays are like any other team in the AL East, an injury or two away from a disastrous season. To me I think the Yankees have as many questions as the Jays but are still favorites based on what they have on paper. Can Judge repeat? How will Stanton adjust to the AL? Is Sabathia still a viable option? Which Tanaka are you getting? Is Severino going to repeat? Will Byrd play 30 games or 130 games? Has Betances over come his demons?

But on paper they are favorites!!!! But just as many questions.

Same goes for the Red Sox. Which Price are they getting? Which Bettis? Which Bradley? Which Rameriz? Can JD duplicate last season? How long is Pedroria out? Is Devers the real deal at 3B? Which Sale are they getting 1st half of last season or last half?

 

[Hoverhand]

Couldn't agree with you more. The Jays are like any other team in the AL East, an injury or two away from a disastrous season. To me I think the Yankees have as many questions as the Jays but are still favorites based on what they have on paper. Can Judge repeat? How will Stanton adjust to the AL? Is Sabathia still a viable option? Which Tanaka are you getting? Is Severino going to repeat? Will Byrd play 30 games or 130 games? Has Betances over come his demons?

But on paper they are favorites!!!! But just as many questions.

Same goes for the Red Sox. Which Price are they getting? Which Bettis? Which Bradley? Which Rameriz? Can JD duplicate last season? How long is Pedroria out? Is Devers the real deal at 3B? Which Sale are they getting 1st half of last season or last half?

I think its fair to say that the odds the Yankees and Red Sox get positive answers to their questions is more likely than the Jays getting positives answer to their questions.

I want to believe in this team, i do believe in this team but lets not act like we're a couple of "questions" away from the Yankees.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I think its fair to say that the odds the Yankees and Red Sox get positive answers to their questions is more likely than the Jays getting positives answer to their questions.

I want to believe in this team, i do believe in this team but lets not act like we're a couple of "questions" away from the Yankees.

Though I agree the Yankees are a better overall team than the Jays as currently constructed, lets not act like a 2016 Stanton\Severino\Gregorious combo won't drop them down to battling for the wildcard.

 

[Eyedea]

Yeah but a 2016 Gary is like Barry Bonds, so, yeah, still incapable of consistently making the playoffs.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Yeah but a 2016 Gary is like Barry Bonds, so, yeah, still incapable of consistently making the playoffs.

Interestingly enough, Gary's 2016 was equally as impressive as Judge's 2017, albeit in a lower number of PA's.

8.2 fWAR, .430 wOBA / 173 wRC+ / .343 ISO
~7.3 fWAR, .425 wOBA / 171 wRC+ / .358 ISO

He then saw his numbers stabilize (13% SwStr%, 25% HR/FB v. 40%) with the league getting a chance to form advanced scouting reports. Still a wonderfully productive hitter for a catcher. Apply a similar level of stabilization to Judge's advanced metrics, and you have .372 wOBA, 132 wRC+, 242 ISO....which is essentially the batting profile of 2017 Justin Smoak.

Of course, that's not likely to happen. Far more likely they'll get 17 Judge, 17 Stanton, 16 Sanchez, 650 PA's of 15 Bird and break the single season wins record going 117-45.

 

[Brown Dog]

Same goes for the Red Sox. Which Price are they getting? Which Bettis? Which Bradley? Which Rameriz? Can JD duplicate last season? How long is Pedroria out? Is Devers the real deal at 3B? Which Sale are they getting 1st half of last season or last half?

Sure, there are no certainties. That's why they play the games, as they say.

But there's so much more reward to the risk/reward scenarios of the Yankees and Red Sox. Which is why (in my mind) so much has to go right for the Jays to contend.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Yea, I am not in love with the Jays this year. I hope they can make it interesting in Sept, but that's only a hope.

 

[ChurchOfAlfie]

 

[ShaneFalco]

Yea, I am not in love with the Jays this year. I hope they can make it interesting in Sept, but that's only a hope.

There's a lot of IFs for sure but much better depth and I think, bullpen. Be nice to have some speed too

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Eyedea]

Everyone else was getting 1-2 years and the O's still get suckered into 4?