A 1st for a skill winger is on the high side. Vanek, Gaborik, Zuccarello, Nyquist and Hall (to Boston) notably did not get the premium over the past 10 deadlines. Rangers fans can argue the other things in the trade to justify a valuation in that range, I guess.
These 1st round picks are not as valuable as fans make them about to be. Look at the track record.
Rental for 1st 2010-2019:
Player | Result | Player Taken in Draft Slot |
Kovalchuk | Used in trade for Byfuglien | K. Hayes |
Kaberle | Used to trade up for Biggs | Rakell |
Gaustad | Used to trade up for Girgensons | Jankowski |
Iginla | Retained | Klimchuk |
Jagr | Retained | Dickinson |
Miller + Ott | Used in trade for Kane + Bogosian | Roslovic |
Franson + Santorelli | Used to trade down ultimately for Dermott, Bracco and Dzierkals | Konecny |
Vermette | Retained | Merkley |
Sekera | Retained | Gauthier |
Ladd | Used to trade up for Stanley | Rubstov |
Hanzal | Retained | Olivier-Joseph |
Shattenkirk | Used in trade for B. Schenn | Frost |
Eaves | Used to trade up for Oettinger | Jokiharju |
Kane | Used in trade for Montour | Tracey |
Nash | Used to trade up for Miller | Bernard-Docker |
Stastny | Used to trade up for Bokk | Sandin |
Hayes | Used in trade for Trouba | Heinola |
Duchene | Retained | Thomson |
In line with the percentages. The end of the list will look more like the top of the list eventually. Draft hype will wear off over time.
Vermette worked out well enough and Franson + Santorelli looks awful, but the vast majority of this type of trade has been and will continue to be insignificant in both directions.