Rumor: All Purpose Trade Proposals, Speculation and Rumours - 2023/24

[Mortimer Snerd]

Its a matter of Damaging getting young players vs damaging in an overall sense. . You see I think* it is* debatabe in that giving up draft capital can lead you to win/ more playoff income/ a shot at the cup if the assets coming back and or the teams' response to the change gives you a net positive. . And that net result wouldn't necessarily be damaging. It could be. We'll see. I see the Pens giving up a 1st/ taking in Karlsson and his salary at this juncture as a slight set back in draft capital and mainly a kicking of the can for their upcoming rebuild. I don't think it's necessarily damaging in an overall sense.
If Crosby and Malkin retired this off season and then Pens traded away their 1st for Karlsson in a desperate attempt to remain competitive, THAT would be considered damaging the future in my eyes.

Under your definition, every single team that has ever traded away a 1st has future-damaged themselves. It is possible to hit on later round draft picks. And 1st rounders to be busts or not move the needle. . You could subsequently trade out going assets ( even those with term and salary) for futures during the extended window that you gave yourself. I don't think it's black and white that what the Pens did in this one trade is damaging or even damaging their future

Even if it is a short term improvement, big or small, it is a long term cost (damage), big or small.

But we are arguing how many angels can dance on the head of a pin here. They didn't give up an awful lot - IF - it makes them a contender one last time. I am skeptical that they have improved substantially. I think they will be hard pressed to make the PO again. If they get in it will be only just barely.

 

[DRW204]

There it is...

My concern is that you guys seem to be using the stat that the Jets were a good team at the end of the year and somehow crediting Scheif... I think it was far more Jomo emergence, Nino and others that contributed to that

why are you just looking at xGF? it ignores what scheifele does best over the years which is finishing on low shot volume (which may also lead to low-xGF totals since there is less shot attempts). This is why i can see some folks have such a disdain for stats or xGs.... taking 1 stat as the be-all end-all and trying so hard to devalue goals for some reason as if the goal is to win the xStanleyCup.

if you look at GF vs xGF..... seems to me scheifele was consistently way above rest of the team in finishing & putting goals on the board, you know the thing that helps win games, which xG vehemently ignores. so low shot volume (which probably wouldn't score well in xGF) but elite finishing... but yes, lets just continuously look at merely xGF?

- can also look into this differently ie: via rates, rolling totals etc. which will show a bit more detail in the peaks and valleys
if 0 is considered average finishing, there was 1 pocket of 10 games (games 61-70) where the team had better finishing than scheifele, & scheifele was barely below average during that 10-games (-0.73 GF vs xGF at 5v5)

no doubt he does need to improve defensively, however, the lack of linemate finish i believe has more of an impact on his net-offense scoring (or 5v5 GF-GA). ideally you want average defense from him with average linemate finishing. but the bigger impact appears to be the linemate scoring based on if you were to assume scheifele at Jets-average defense, or if you were to assume GF - xGF = 0 as average finishing.

scheifele was a +1 at 5v5 this year. obviously want better... but what impact does average defensively have on +/-?
the difference b/w scheifele's 5v5 xGA/60 vs the team [less scheifele] was 2.87 vs 2.48. using the same quality goaltending (which in itself is a variable that can change) it is a difference of 8 GA over the same volume. The linemate quality finishing at average is 11-12 GF.

 

[BoneDocUK]

Do the Boston retirements impact the Jets in terms of possible trades? Maybe, maybe not, says The A.

David Krejci's retirement and the intrigue of a Bruins trade with the Jets or Flames

The Bruins' contingency plans might intrigue the Jets and Flames, given the roster holes each team needs to fill.

theathletic.com

Maybe?

Boston has two starting goaltenders and needs a center. Winnipeg’s goaltending is elite on its way into the season but could be a ghost town when it’s over. Connor Hellebuyck and Laurent Brossoit are scheduled to become 2024 unrestricted free agents. Winnipeg might yet work out an extension with Hellebuyck or learn Brossoit can play a 1A role in the future but, as it stands, promising 19-year-old Domenic DiVincentiis is Winnipeg’s only goaltender with a contract for 2024-25. Meanwhile, Mark Scheifele scored 42 goals last season after six straight years of point-per-game offense and he’s a pending free agent, too. It’s easy to look at Winnipeg’s and Boston’s rosters, dream up a Scheifele-for-a-goaltender trade, and imagine you’re solving both teams’ problems.

Maybe not...

Dig a little deeper and challenges emerge. Goaltenders are not fetching first-line center prices these days — a problem stymying the Jets’ own efforts to maximize Hellebuyck’s trade return. Boston projects to enter the season within about $400K of the cap maximum: acquiring Scheifele ($6.125 million, UFA 2024) for Ullmark ($5 million, UFA 2025) would be cumbersome, cap-wise, in addition to its player-for-player value’s being out of line with recent goaltending transactions. Swayman’s youth could make him more appealing to Winnipeg, but moving the $3.475 million, 2024 RFA would make Scheifele’s cap hit even more difficult for Boston to accommodate.

 

[DRW204]

Do the Boston retirements impact the Jets in terms of possible trades? Maybe, maybe not, says The A.

David Krejci's retirement and the intrigue of a Bruins trade with the Jets or Flames

The Bruins' contingency plans might intrigue the Jets and Flames, given the roster holes each team needs to fill.

theathletic.com

Maybe?

Boston has two starting goaltenders and needs a center. Winnipeg’s goaltending is elite on its way into the season but could be a ghost town when it’s over. Connor Hellebuyck and Laurent Brossoit are scheduled to become 2024 unrestricted free agents. Winnipeg might yet work out an extension with Hellebuyck or learn Brossoit can play a 1A role in the future but, as it stands, promising 19-year-old Domenic DiVincentiis is Winnipeg’s only goaltender with a contract for 2024-25. Meanwhile, Mark Scheifele scored 42 goals last season after six straight years of point-per-game offense and he’s a pending free agent, too. It’s easy to look at Winnipeg’s and Boston’s rosters, dream up a Scheifele-for-a-goaltender trade, and imagine you’re solving both teams’ problems.

Maybe not...

Dig a little deeper and challenges emerge. Goaltenders are not fetching first-line center prices these days — a problem stymying the Jets’ own efforts to maximize Hellebuyck’s trade return. Boston projects to enter the season within about $400K of the cap maximum: acquiring Scheifele ($6.125 million, UFA 2024) for Ullmark ($5 million, UFA 2025) would be cumbersome, cap-wise, in addition to its player-for-player value’s being out of line with recent goaltending transactions. Swayman’s youth could make him more appealing to Winnipeg, but moving the $3.475 million, 2024 RFA would make Scheifele’s cap hit even more difficult for Boston to accommodate.

Maybe we trade him to Boston. Then who is playing top line center for us?

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Maybe we trade him to Boston. Then who is playing top line center for us?

Pre-season will/should decide that. Odds are good his last name ends with an i. Worst case scenario: it ends with a y.

 

[DRW204]

Pre-season will/should decide that. Odds are good his last name ends with an i. Worst case scenario: it ends with a y.

Many on this forum don't see Lowry consistent enough on offense for a 3c. Can u imagine the discourse on top of the depth chart

 

[Gabe Kupari]

Ppl saying Boston makes sense don't realize Boston don't make sense for winnipeg. Perhaps a 3rd team is involved (Arizona maybe with Keller or Schmaltz) but Boston seriously has a goalie and that's it and a goalie ain't enough for 55

At this point, 1st plus plus likely at the Trade Deadline sounds fun to me.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Many on this forum don't see Lowry consistent enough on offense for a 3c. Can u imagine the discourse on top of the depth chart

4 goals in 5 playoff games says he would at least be considered.

 

[surixon]

4 goals in 5 playoff games says he would at least be considered.

Sure, but he had 4 goals in his prior 35 playoff games and 9 in 44 total playoff games. He's shown over the course of his career that he's a bottom 6 forward offensively. Even bottom 6 forwards have periods of hot play but over the long term they tend to perform to the mean.

 

[10Ducky10]

Lowry should be our 4th line center, but having said that, he's always one of our best performers in the playoffs.

 

[Heldig]

Lowry should be our 4th line center, but having said that, he's always one of our best performers in the playoffs.

I want to see Lowry centre a line with Connor and Appleton / Kupari / Barron. Help Connors bleak D zone coverage and let Lowry crash the net.

 

[Jets 31]

4 goals in 5 playoff games says he would at least be considered.

I like Lowry but he's a number 1 center like Scheifele is a 4th line checking center.

 

[Bigfish]

4 goals in 5 playoff games says he would at least be considered.

A stretch of 40 games without a goal last year says he wouldn't be considered.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

I like Lowry but he's a number 1 center like Scheifele is a 4th line checking center.

Well, I did say worst case scenario.

 

[Guardian17]

 

[drumzan]

Something I haven’t really seen mentioned much… Scheifele has a 10-team NTC.

 

[abax44]

Literally nothing in that blurb.

 

[DRW204]

Literally nothing in that blurb.

I didn't know we signed this fellow named Jeff Veil

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Something I haven’t really seen mentioned much… Scheifele has a 10-team NTC.

Probably 10 cities where people swear a lot.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Do the Boston retirements impact the Jets in terms of possible trades? Maybe, maybe not, says The A.

David Krejci's retirement and the intrigue of a Bruins trade with the Jets or Flames

The Bruins' contingency plans might intrigue the Jets and Flames, given the roster holes each team needs to fill.

theathletic.com

Maybe?

Boston has two starting goaltenders and needs a center. Winnipeg’s goaltending is elite on its way into the season but could be a ghost town when it’s over. Connor Hellebuyck and Laurent Brossoit are scheduled to become 2024 unrestricted free agents. Winnipeg might yet work out an extension with Hellebuyck or learn Brossoit can play a 1A role in the future but, as it stands, promising 19-year-old Domenic DiVincentiis is Winnipeg’s only goaltender with a contract for 2024-25. Meanwhile, Mark Scheifele scored 42 goals last season after six straight years of point-per-game offense and he’s a pending free agent, too. It’s easy to look at Winnipeg’s and Boston’s rosters, dream up a Scheifele-for-a-goaltender trade, and imagine you’re solving both teams’ problems.

Maybe not...

Dig a little deeper and challenges emerge. Goaltenders are not fetching first-line center prices these days — a problem stymying the Jets’ own efforts to maximize Hellebuyck’s trade return. Boston projects to enter the season within about $400K of the cap maximum: acquiring Scheifele ($6.125 million, UFA 2024) for Ullmark ($5 million, UFA 2025) would be cumbersome, cap-wise, in addition to its player-for-player value’s being out of line with recent goaltending transactions. Swayman’s youth could make him more appealing to Winnipeg, but moving the $3.475 million, 2024 RFA would make Scheifele’s cap hit even more difficult for Boston to accommodate.

True - but the difficulties would be pretty easily overcome.
Goaltenders don't return 1Cs? Sure, until 1 does.
Winnipeg can afford to take another player in the return or to retain salary. Boston can afford to add if a goalie can't fetch a 1C and solve the cap issue at the same time.

All it takes is the will to get it done - on both sides.

On the other side, if Hellebuyck won't fetch a 1C we should be able to live with a strong C prospect + whatever it takes to make up the value.

I can see Bruins preferring to move Ullmark, even though he is the current Vezina holder. It makes the cap issue a lot easier to deal with. That assumes they think Swayman is ready to take over anyway. Bruins are even more a win now team than the Jets are. But Ullmark is a lot less attractive to Jets because of being a potential UFA after 2 seasons. They gain only 1 season. But that is 1 more season for Jets G prospects to develop, or for them to find one somewhere else. But Bruins would definitely need to add in that case.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Maybe we trade him to Boston. Then who is playing top line center for us?

The guy we get for Helle. We certainly would not keep Helle if we had just traded for Swayman/Ullmark. Or, more likely, Vilardi/Perfetti + Names filling in at 2C.

It either works or we get a lottery pick in 24.

Many on this forum don't see Lowry consistent enough on offense for a 3c. Can u imagine the discourse on top of the depth chart

It would be interesting, maybe not in a good way.
I've been trying to imagine Bruins fans with Coyle as 1C.

 

[DRW204]

The guy we get for Helle. We certainly would not keep Helle if we had just traded for Swayman/Ullmark. Or, more likely, Vilardi/Perfetti + Names filling in at 2C.

It either works or we get a lottery pick in 24.



It would be interesting, maybe not in a good way.
I've been trying to imagine Bruins fans with Coyle as 1C.

"the guy"
Excellent insight.

 

[tbcwpg]

"the guy"
Excellent insight.

The guy who's gonna take the rebuild from 5 years to just a quick 2 year retool.

 

[DRW204]

The guy who's gonna take the rebuild from 5 years to just a quick 2 year retool.

The guy from that team that just has a 1C to spare.

 

[Flair Hay]

I don't think the question is simple as who will play 1C for us in 2023.

To me, it is if Scheifele is not our 1C in 2024 and beyond, by his choice, what are we really losing by moving on from him for a return at the trade deadline?

One of the best ways to keep this team from climbing the ladder over the next 5 years is to piss away a return with real potential to help us get better.