Rumor: All Purpose Trade Proposals, Speculation and Rumours - 2023/24

[BobTheSolarsystem]

The Pens have no cap space at this point. They seem like a bad fit for a Hellebuyck trade.

They have $6m waiting with LTIR.

 

[Weltschmerz]

They have $6m waiting with LTIR.

And when Guentzel comes back in November then what?

 

[Atoyot]

The Pens have no cap space at this point. They seem like a bad fit for a Hellebuyck trade.

Considering they're in a very "win now" position, they might pay for Helle for one year at 50%. Not difficult to find 3 million in cap. Would be a blast to watch them.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

With Karlsson , the crux of conversation is essentially did the Penguins give up too much? Is it detrimental/devastating to a future rebuild? If the answer is yes than going after him was a bad move. If is no ( where I stand), then at the very least, it wasn't a bad move at all. I mean Penguins have a history of giving up 1st like candy over the years anyway and were still able to build cup calibre teams .

I don't think that is the question at all. I see 2 other questions that are not about the futures they gave up. 1. Is Karlsson what they needed? 2. What is the net change for them, on ice, this season?

They acquired some additional offense. How much remains to be seen. At the cost of some defense and some goaltending, at least from their backup. To me, their weakness is in net. They made that worse.

If they actually improved substantially it is a decent move to try to get the last bit out of their aging core. If not, they have damaged their future for nothing.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The Pens have no cap space at this point. They seem like a bad fit for a Hellebuyck trade.

Yes - no doubt. But if they could take on EK at 10 mil per, they could have taken on Helle at 6 instead. Exactly what that would have looked like I can't say but it would have had to have been easier than what they did and would have been more likely to actually help this year. It being one and done probably makes it more desirable to Pens.

 

[DRW204]

I don't think that is the question at all. I see 2 other questions that are not about the futures they gave up. 1. Is Karlsson what they needed? 2. What is the net change for them, on ice, this season?

They acquired some additional offense. How much remains to be seen. At the cost of some defense and some goaltending, at least from their backup. To me, their weakness is in net. They made that worse.

If they actually improved substantially it is a decent move to try to get the last bit out of their aging core. If not, they have damaged their future for nothing.

they traded a top-10 protected 1st, probably mid-to-late. look at the stats of the %-chance of that becoming anything noteworthy. only you would morn the loss of a non-lotto 1st for an entire week.

karlssons xGA or CA rate is actually not far off petry's... and karlsson was doing it on a way worse team

no disagreement they need better or more reliable goaltending however the goalie market was crap this year. and really outside of the group of helle/sorokin/shesterkin/saros/vas most starters are up and down year-to-year, just like Jarry.

if they really wanted to go all-in
could have traded this year's 1st+ for Helle
and then trade for Karlsson
let Jarry walk

but dont think we're trading helle as we are not rebuilding so really no options for reliable goal-tending.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

they traded a top-10 protected 1st, probably mid-to-late. look at the stats of the %-chance of that becoming anything noteworthy. only you would morn the loss of a non-lotto 1st for an entire week.

karlssons xGA or CA rate is actually not far off petry's... and karlsson was doing it on a way worse team

no disagreement they need better or more reliable goaltending however the goalie market was crap this year. and really outside of the group of helle/sorokin/shesterkin/saros/vas most starters are up and down year-to-year, just like Jarry.

if they really wanted to go all-in
could have traded this year's 1st+ for Helle
and then trade for Karlsson
let Jarry walk

but dont think we're trading helle as we are not rebuilding.

Like I said, leave the futures they paid out of it. The question remains, how much will Karlsson improve them this year? Was last year a last gasp? Or was it the real EK? Does he have another outstanding season in him?

If we don't trade Helle and we don't sign Helle, we are rebuilding.
But it doesn't look like Chevy is trading Helle. It doesn't look like he is extending either. See you in the rebuilding thread next off-season.

Honestly though, I still have at least a little hope that both Scheifele and Helle will extend. If the room is a happy place and the team performs well it might still be a possibility. As long as their contracts aren't crippling we could contend again if a couple of our prospects hit their ceilings.

If Helle leaves, even if Scheif stays we could end up with Brossoit starting for a couple of years. That could be Pavlecian.

 

[Jetsfan79]

I don't think that is the question at all. I see 2 other questions that are not about the futures they gave up. 1. Is Karlsson what they needed? 2. What is the net change for them, on ice, this season?

They acquired some additional offense. How much remains to be seen. At the cost of some defense and some goaltending, at least from their backup. To me, their weakness is in net. They made that worse.

If they actually improved substantially it is a decent move to try to get the last bit out of their aging core. If not, they have damaged their future for nothing.

Your doing an "on paper" analysis, which is fine . And that can definitely be debateted. But you also have to consider how Karlsson could elevate other players on the team. The synergy and extra motivation it could manifest with the likes of Sid and Malkin. I think its worth a shot considering the price they paid . Things were kind of getting stale in Pittsburgh. And let's agree to disagree on the damaging the future angle. I don't think it's devastating at all. Also consider this core has already won cups . I think if you already won a huge jackpot, you are not feeling too bad about a long shot try or exceeding your normal gambling limit. Karlsson will undoubtedly be fun for their fans to watch too.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Your doing an "on paper" analysis, which is fine . And that can definitely be debateted. But you also have to consider how Karlsson could elevate other players on the team. The synergy and extra motivation it could manifest with the likes of Sid and Malkin. I think its worth a shot considering the price they paid . Things were kind of getting stale in Pittsburgh. And let's agree to disagree on the damaging the future angle. I don't think it's devastating at all. Also consider this core has already won cups . I think if you already won a huge jackpot, you are not feeling too bad about a long shot try or exceeding your normal gambling limit. Karlsson will undoubtedly be fun for their fans to watch too.

I can agree that Pitt was getting a little stale. The effects on other players could be a thing, or not. Bringing in a Hellebuyck, even as a 1 year rental would have had an even better chance at a positive effect on the rest of the roster.

I'm not saying this move won't work out for Pens. But they didn't upgrade where they most needed it, IMO. So it doesn't look likely to me.

I can't agree to disagree on damaging the future. I didn't say devastating. Damaging is not even debatable. The degree of damage is. But I never suggested any degree. Damage is damage whether slight or devastating. Don't forget that EK's cap hit is for 4 years. That is damage right there.

I agree with the fun factor, at least for a while.

 

[SCP Guy]

Seems like the market for 55 and 37 has dried up…..If we got a good offer I’m sure Chevy would have pulled the trigger. Seems like only low ball offers came in for them

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

And when Guentzel comes back in November then what?

I mean if you've been watching the NHL lately - I'd say that Guentzel's recovery takes a lot longer than expected... and he returns healthy just in time for the playoffs in that scenario

Seems like the market for 55 and 37 has dried up…..If we got a good offer I’m sure Chevy would have pulled the trigger. Seems like only low ball offers came in for them

With Boston deciding to run with Swayman and Ullmark, they don't have much to trade now - feels like a lot of teams are going to see how their rosters start the season and then TD will be insane in the east again

 

[GeorgeJETson]

Seems like the market for 55 and 37 has dried up…..If we got a good offer I’m sure Chevy would have pulled the trigger. Seems like only low ball offers came in for them

That's what I'm guessing as well. The offers weren't there yet, so likely both will start the season with the Jets.

I figure at least one will be gone by the trade deadline, if not both.

If last year's deadline frenzy extends to this year, we could do quite well.

 

[WaveRaven]

I don't believe that there have no offers of significance for 37 and 55. I'm of the belief that they aren't getting offered now pieces and making the playoffs being the holy grail this season they don't want to pull the trigger.

They are probably still in begging them to stay mode.

 

[Weltschmerz]

I mean if you've been watching the NHL lately - I'd say that Guentzel's recovery takes a lot longer than expected... and he returns healthy just in time for the playoffs in that scenario


With Boston deciding to run with Swayman and Ullmark, they don't have much to trade now - feels like a lot of teams are going to see how their rosters start the season and then TD will be insane in the east again

And who replaces his production? He had 73 points and they missed the playoffs, without him they will miss again.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

And who replaces his production? He had 73 points and they missed the playoffs, without him they will miss again.

Karlsson and Smith will score... I just gave a quick example - teams can and will use LTIR creatively - maybe Guentzel comes back and Carter or someone goes on...

Pens missed the playoffs last year because Jarry absolutely sucked after his injury... Pens were a playoff team before that

 

[Flair Hay]

I don't believe that there have no offers of significance for 37 and 55. I'm of the belief that they aren't getting offered now pieces and making the playoffs being the holy grail this season they don't want to pull the trigger.

They are probably still in begging them to stay mode.

Yeah I imagine they have been offered decent deals but not the return Chevy is set on.

Teams have cap considerations this time of year. That issue isn't much of a roadblock at all by the deadline.

Not to mention top teams focus is on winning, not planning for the future.

Dudes that can't even get multi year deals in the summer are going for 2nd round picks because the environment changes so drastically

Seems like the market for 55 and 37 has dried up…..If we got a good offer I’m sure Chevy would have pulled the trigger. Seems like only low ball offers came in for them

Summer offers vs deadline offers. These guys are front line players that can make a huge difference on an already strong team.

 

[DRW204]

Your doing an "on paper" analysis, which is fine . And that can definitely be debateted. But you also have to consider how Karlsson could elevate other players on the team. The synergy and extra motivation it could manifest with the likes of Sid and Malkin. I think its worth a shot considering the price they paid . Things were kind of getting stale in Pittsburgh. And let's agree to disagree on the damaging the future angle. I don't think it's devastating at all. Also consider this core has already won cups . I think if you already won a huge jackpot, you are not feeling too bad about a long shot try or exceeding your normal gambling limit. Karlsson will undoubtedly be fun for their fans to watch too.

i think even karlsson himself would be a bit more motivated too. the Sharks were a tire-fire of a team with clear Bedard aspirations. playing next to sid and geno has a certain cache still regardless of their age. and both are still great players and high producers. then add a few country-mates on the team, and an organization who wants to win - that would be a stark difference of SJS vs Melnuk OTT days.

karlsson surprisingly never hit below even at 5v5 at any point of the season, and this is while being the highest used NHL Defenseman, on a team primarily back-stopped by James Reimer and finished the year as an overall -52. he isn't great defensively of course - although somehow his on-ice CA or xGA rates are in the ballpark as some of the popular or oft-mentioned Dmen on here. looks like they basically mailed it the last 15-20 games of the year (essentially TDL onward).

don't think it's reasonable to expect 100 pts again since that is a historic number for a dman and barely has happened in NHL history. however, i'd expect 70-80 pts, an overall scale back in regular-season minutes and probably ending the season a solid (+) at 5v5 goal-differential given the overall team.

Yeah I imagine they have been offered decent deals but not the return Chevy is set on.

Teams have cap considerations this time of year. That issue isn't much of a roadblock at all by the deadline.

Not to mention top teams focus is on winning, not planning for the future.

Dudes that can't even get multi year deals in the summer are going for 2nd round picks because the environment changes so drastically

not only that at this point who are the Jets going to bring in that is close to Helle? they
squeaked into the POs w/ Helle i don't know who you can confidently say can come in and provide similar level goaltending. i thought the Jets would trade Helle if they decided to go full-rebuild this off-season however it does not seem like that is the case.

 

[Heldig]

On the main board a list of the goalie depth chart was posted:

ANA: Gibson | Dostal | Stalock
CGY: Markstrom | Vladar | Wolf
EDM: Skinner | Campbell
LAK: Talbot | Copley
SEA: Grubauer | Driedger | Daccord
SJS: Blackwood | Kahkonen
VAN: Demko | Martin | Silovs
VGK: Hill | Thompson | Lehner (LTIR)

ARZ: Vejmelka | Ingram
CHI: Mrazek | Soderblom
COL: Georgiev | Francouz
DAL: Oettinger | Wedgewood
MIN: Gustavsson | Fleury
NSH: Saros | Lankinen
STL: Binnington | Hofer
WPG: Hellebucyk | Brossoit

BOS: Ullmark | Swayman
BUF: Levi | Comrie | Luukkonen
DET: Husso | Reimer
FLO: Bobrovsky | Knight | Stolarz
MON: Allen | Montembeault | DeSmith
OTT: Korpisalo | Forsberg
TBL: Vasilevskiy | Johansson?
TOR: Samsonov | Woll | Murray (LTIR)

CAR: Andersen | Raanta | Kochetkov
CLB: Merzlikins | Tarasov
NJD: Vanecek | Schmid
NYI: Sorokin | Varlamov
NYR: Shesterkin | Quick
PHI: Hart | Petersen | Ersson
PIT: Jarry | Nedeljkovic
WSH: Kuemper | Lindgren

Market for Helle is pretty limited...I highlighted 4 teams that I think should be trying to improve their goalie depth (Detroit and Buffalo in a need to make the playoffs and NJ and Edm as contenders).

After that, it probably takes an injury to the main guy with one of the contenders.

 

[KingBogo]

Your doing an "on paper" analysis, which is fine . And that can definitely be debateted. But you also have to consider how Karlsson could elevate other players on the team. The synergy and extra motivation it could manifest with the likes of Sid and Malkin. I think its worth a shot considering the price they paid . Things were kind of getting stale in Pittsburgh. And let's agree to disagree on the damaging the future angle. I don't think it's devastating at all. Also consider this core has already won cups . I think if you already won a huge jackpot, you are not feeling too bad about a long shot try or exceeding your normal gambling limit. Karlsson will undoubtedly be fun for their fans to watch too.

This post is the closest opinion on here to what the majority of Pens seem to have gathered their support behind. They have their cups and they have a generational player and for sure another HOF player and maybe a couple more. They seem to be fully behind going all in and if it doesn’t work out it will be at least fun to watch. When the rebuild eventually happens it happens but let’s at least go down swinging in the last couple years of Sid’s career.

 

[Flair Hay]

not only that at this point who are the Jets going to bring in that is close to Helle? they
squeaked into the POs w/ Helle i don't know who you can confidently say can come in and provide similar level goaltending. i thought the Jets would trade Helle if they decided to go full-rebuild this off-season however it does not seem like that is the case.

There definitely is no one coming in that can replace Helle that doesn't have significant value

 

[GaryPoppins]

Karlsson and Smith will score... I just gave a quick example - teams can and will use LTIR creatively - maybe Guentzel comes back and Carter or someone goes on...

Pens missed the playoffs last year because Jarry absolutely sucked after his injury... Pens were a playoff team before that

Honestly, an extended summer for that core is probably not a terrible thing. A tested Sid and Co with capable goaltending could be solid.

 

[DRW204]

There definitely is no one coming in that can replace Helle that doesn't have significant value

yeah exactly.
not sure if the Jets are in the business to take a stab at a random goalie like some previous cup-winners. at this point of the off-season i don't see any formidable replacement(s) for Helle.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

Honestly, an extended summer for that core is probably not a terrible thing. A tested Sid and Co with capable goaltending could be solid.

I don't know what they have to offer but a TD deal for Helle would make sense for them... Jarry usually starts strong and then falls apart

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

To be fair I split the season into 4 chapters... based on quick xGF%

Chapter 1 - Game 1 to December 1
Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

- Our fancy stats are pretty bad - in fact, these stats are terrible and its quite possible goaltending and Bowness system is carrying the team
- JoMo and Perfetti a lot worse than I thought
- Wheeler, Scheif, Connor, Pionk in our top ten though
- Sam gagner with a strong start

Dec 1 to Montreal Game (PLD's party haha)
Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

- This team is on fire - the bottom six is driving our success
- Jomo and Perfetti getting their game
- Samberg and Schmidt pairing might be something...
- Only DeMelo, Connor, Pionk under 50
- Honestly surprised Scheif is not higher

PLD Party to Scheif's Benching
Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

- This team is cracking - Scheif, Wheeler, Jomo, Pionk, Stenlund are now liabilities
- Perfetti, Dillon, Samberg and Dubois driving the team
- Stenlund and Lowry fall - so does the impact of our bottom six

Carolina Game to the End - Names/Nino era
Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

- This team is dominant - only players under xGF55$ are Pionk, Scheif and Connor
- Suddenly Jomo, Ehlers and Lowry are on fire
- Nino and Names are good players
- Our worst top players down the stretch are Pionk, Connor and Scheif...

There's my deep dive.

This lines up a lot more with the eye test than simply a shooting drought and Helle disappearing...

Interesting things I learned
- Samberg is A LOT better than we think
- JoMo may not be the anchor we think he is
- Scheif did NOT have a 200' game resurgence in the first half... he ranged from 47-51% all year
- Wheeler is a very very good player if we had played him on the third line - I knew that though
- The first 20 games - this team sucked on paper - is that because they were playing Bowness' non-scoring system?
- PLD played harder than any of our other top players
- The Jets played their BEST hockey of the year after the top line was benched - Scheif and Connor did not

There it is...

My concern is that you guys seem to be using the stat that the Jets were a good team at the end of the year and somehow crediting Scheif... I think it was far more Jomo emergence, Nino and others that contributed to that

 

[Jetsfan79]

I can agree that Pitt was getting a little stale. The effects on other players could be a thing, or not. Bringing in a Hellebuyck, even as a 1 year rental would have had an even better chance at a positive effect on the rest of the roster.

I'm not saying this move won't work out for Pens. But they didn't upgrade where they most needed it, IMO. So it doesn't look likely to me.

I can't agree to disagree on damaging the future. I didn't say devastating. Damaging is not even debatable. The degree of damage is. But I never suggested any degree. Damage is damage whether slight or devastating. Don't forget that EK's cap hit is for 4 years. That is damage right there.

I agree with the fun factor, at least for a while.

Its a matter of Damaging getting young players vs damaging in an overall sense. . You see I think* it is* debatabe in that giving up draft capital can lead you to win/ more playoff income/ a shot at the cup if the assets coming back and or the teams' response to the change gives you a net positive. . And that net result wouldn't necessarily be damaging. It could be. We'll see. I see the Pens giving up a 1st/ taking in Karlsson and his salary at this juncture as a slight set back in draft capital and mainly a kicking of the can for their upcoming rebuild. I don't think it's necessarily damaging in an overall sense.
If Crosby and Malkin retired this off season and then Pens traded away their 1st for Karlsson in a desperate attempt to remain competitive, THAT would be considered damaging the future in my eyes.

Under your definition, every single team that has ever traded away a 1st has future-damaged themselves. It is possible to hit on later round draft picks. And 1st rounders to be busts or not move the needle. . You could subsequently trade out going assets ( even those with term and salary) for futures during the extended window that you gave yourself. I don't think it's black and white that what the Pens did in this one trade is damaging or even damaging their future