Rumor: All Purpose Trade Proposals, Speculation and Rumours - 2023/24

[Cypruss]

Is this a Scheifele hype post disguised as a Gabe Vilardi hype post?? Encouraging to see his name on that chart for sure

Nice catch

 

[Whileee]

Is this a Scheifele hype post disguised as a Gabe Vilardi hype post?? Encouraging to see his name on that chart for sure

Glad you spotted it.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I want to take a little bit different look at the near future.

It is looking like the Jets could have a pretty good season, with a little luck.
Lets assume that both Scheif and Helle stay for their last contract seasons without extending. Even though we make the PO, win a series and put up a good fight, losing the 2nd series in 7 games, neither chooses to accept Chevy's last best offer.

How bad will the 25 season be?
Other teams lose key players to UFA. It happens every year. That's why there is Free Agent Frenzy.

We will have filled 2C this season. Just for discussion, lets pretend that Vilardi stepped into that role fairly smoothly. But now we need to find another top 6C. We are again looking for an internal solution. Is it realistically there?

With Helle gone what are we going to do in net? Even if either or both of Dom and Milic are progressing very well it isn't likely that either is ready. Do we just wait for one of them? Or do we find an adequate placeholder/Helle replacement by trade or FA signing?

Unless there are some extensions in the works right now, we probably also lose Nino, Dillon, DeMelo and Brossoit. We can probably re-sign Bro, but the others probably move on.

IMO, goal is the biggest problem. The other holes should be filled by our prospect pool. If not for the 25 season, at least for the 26 season. While we have high hopes for Dom and Milic, neither is a gold plated cert to make it in the NHL. But even there, other teams cope every season.

Reply to my own post here.

I don't think this scenario is far fetched. It may or may not be highly probable but it is not wild speculation. It points to Chevy playing with fire if he goes very far into the season with Scheif and Helle unsigned and untraded.

Take it 1 year further down the road and there is the potential for 7 more players being in their pending UFA seasons. Ehlers, Iafallo, Appleton, Namestnikov, AJF, Schmidt and Pionk. Some of those are a lot more important than others. Some might be addition by subtraction. It is a lot of roster spots to fill, but just think of all the cap space we would have. We can assume that some of those will be extended. Which ones is too hard to guess this far away.

 

[Gil Fisher]

I do find it interesting is that Scheifele is at the top or near the top of virtually every impact chart yet so many people want to run him out of town. Many talk about room issues but no one has ever posted a firsthand account of him being a problem in the room. I wouldn’t blame the guy if he wanted out but personally I really hope he stays as he makes us a much better team.

everyone wants to run him out of town, and no one around the league wants him. it is weird.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Hart is not one of the guys in trouble is what I have read elsewhere.

Reddit?

I haven't seen him comment one way or another. Some have released statements saying "I didn't attend the event" or "wasn't involved and haven't been alleged to be involved" which are pretty strong statements of absolution.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Here's where Scheifele fits - top 5 percentile among forwards last season. His closest comparables? MacKinnon and Thompson.

Scheifele is paid considerably less than his comparables.

View attachment 730446

Scheifele has been the Jets most effective forward in the playoffs over the past several seasons, and the Jets have been overmatched without him.

Zibanejad looks like his closest cohort imo. Same age, same draft, adjacent picks. Zib signed 2 seasons ago to 8 x 8.5m. 2 less years plus some cap inflation would have 55 looking for 6 x $9.0m or $9.5m. 6 years and $55 million gets in that ballpark.

 

[KingBogo]

everyone wants to run him out of town, and no one around the league wants him. it is weird.

How do you know no one wants him? Does Chevy give you updates on what he is asking?

 

[Jetsfan79]

How do you know no one wants him? Does Chevy give you updates on what he is asking?

It's a sentiment most of the insiders seems to share. Scheifele also has a bit of negative reputation. Not saying any of this is true . It's a perception for sure. Common sense would tell you a 40 goal scorer should be strongly sought after. I do not get a sense he's generating the interest he should be getting. We're not even getting the " allot of teams that are asking for Schiefele are balking at the asking price" type of reports.

The chatter about Boston even feels like it's media speculation. Not sure Bruins even want Schiefele . Maybe they do. Just not getting a vibe there's organic interest in Schiefele.

 

[Potrzebie]

Here's where Scheifele fits - top 5 percentile among forwards last season. His closest comparables? MacKinnon and Thompson.

Scheifele is paid considerably less than his comparables.

View attachment 730446

Scheifele has been the Jets most effective forward in the playoffs over the past several seasons, and the Jets have been overmatched without him.

Very happy to see Vilardi on this list as well. Thanks Whileee as usual for bringing receipts instead of hot takes.

 

[puck stoppa]

everyone wants to run him out of town, and no one around the league wants him. it is weird.

We have no one even close to replace him and I’ve heard he’s open to staying here as he likes it here but not for a rebuild.

 

[drumzan]

It's a sentiment most of the insiders seems to share. Scheifele also has a bit of negative reputation. Not saying any of this is true . It's a perception for sure. Common sense would tell you a 40 goal scorer should be strongly sought after. I do not get a sense he's generating the interest he should be getting. We're not even getting the " allot of teams that are asking for Schiefele are balking at the asking price" type of reports.

The chatter about Boston even feels like it's media speculation. Not sure Bruins even want Schiefele . Maybe they do. Just not getting a vibe there's organic interest in Schiefele.

Mike McIntyre reported the Bruins interest in Scheifele. I think David Pagnotta did too.

It’s not just speculation.

 

[Flair Hay]

Mike McIntyre reported the Bruins interest in Scheifele. I think David Pagnotta did too.

It’s not just speculation.

Yeah it makes a lot of sense. I also think if Scheif has a big payday extension on the mind... if he thinks Chevy is a grinder...

Wait until he gets to speak personally with Jacobs where taking less is a non negotiable expectation

 

[KingBogo]

It's a sentiment most of the insiders seems to share. Scheifele also has a bit of negative reputation. Not saying any of this is true . It's a perception for sure. Common sense would tell you a 40 goal scorer should be strongly sought after. I do not get a sense he's generating the interest he should be getting. We're not even getting the " allot of teams that are asking for Schiefele are balking at the asking price" type of reports.

The chatter about Boston even feels like it's media speculation. Not sure Bruins even want Schiefele . Maybe they do. Just not getting a vibe there's organic interest in Schiefele.

The same lack of interest applies equally to Helly. You’d think someone would be interested in a Vezina goalie but nothing but crickets. Even the so called NJ was tepid and long over a month ago. Maybe the real reason is what Scheifele and Helly have in common. 30 year old pending UFAs in a flat cap environment with a grinder GM that claws for everything he can get?

 

[Heldig]

Regarding Scheifele, many of us have speculated on what happened to him that caused his overall game commit to crater. IF he buys in to Bowness' system he can still be our best player. But he needs smart, 2 way guys to play along side him. Enter Iaffollo.

 

[Flair Hay]

The same lack of interest applies equally to Helly. You’d think someone would be interested in a Vezina goalie but nothing but crickets. Even the so called NJ was tepid and long over a month ago. Maybe the real reason is what Scheifele and Helly have in common. 30 year old pending UFAs in a flat cap environment with a grinder GM that claws for everything he can get?

I think you hit the nail on the head. There just simply isn't the urgency in the summer to:

A) get that last player to put a team over the top

B) extend a 30 year old to huge money

Teams make mistakes and undervalue picks/prospects in March, not in the summer. The summer is when they are typically overvalued.

Devils and Sabres won't be clutching their pearls at giving up potential top six/top four prospects when one player can be the difference between a Cup run and an extra $20M in the owners pocket...

 

[Whileee]

Zibanejad looks like his closest cohort imo. Same age, same draft, adjacent picks. Zib signed 2 seasons ago to 8 x 8.5m. 2 less years plus some cap inflation would have 55 looking for 6 x $9.0m or $9.5m. 6 years and $55 million gets in that ballpark.

I've been suggesting 6 x 9.167M (=55M) for Scheifele, as an option. He seems like a player that has the smarts, skills and fitness to age well as an offensive / scoring contributor, like Pavelski and Giroux.

 

[Whileee]

Regarding Scheifele, many of us have speculated on what happened to him that caused his overall game commit to crater. IF he buys in to Bowness' system he can still be our best player. But he needs smart, 2 way guys to play along side him. Enter Iaffollo.

This is a key point. Scheifele doesn't lack effort, in the off-season, practices and games. His issue is more his focus in games, which is offense-oriented (like Connor). Every team needs scoring, but it's about line construction to ensure offensive players spend more time in the offensive zone. The 55-81 combo spends too much time defending. Separate 55 and 81 and put each with good play drivers, so you get the pluses without the minuses.

The Jets now have a passel of forwards that are stronger defensively and better play drivers...

Niederreiter, Vilardi, Iafallo, Namestnikov.

I would also add Perfetti and maybe Barron as forwards that could play in top-9 roles with scoring lines, with solid defensive metrics.

I'll soon post a summary of metrics for Jets' forwards, with some ideas about line construction for a balanced top-9. The Jets have more forward depth and quality than they've had since 2017/18.

 

[Whileee]

Earlier I posted a comparison of next year's Jets' line-up (based on last seaon's xGAR/60 metrics) vs. a couple of key Western Conference competitors (Vegas and Dallas).

But how does the projected line-up compare to previous Jets' rosters?

Here is a graph that shows the distribution of the roster in terms of xGAR/60 for three Jets rosters:

2021-22 (perhaps their most disappointing season)
2017-18 (their best roster)
2023-24 (projected based on 2022-23 metrics)

Next season's roster compares well with the 2017-18 roster, and is clearly a lot better than the 2021-22 roster.

I'm not sold on xGAR/60 distribution as a single metric for assessing a roster, but I think these metrics show that the current roster is a lot stronger than many seem to think.

 

[Whileee]

Okay, so let's have a quick look at the Jets new forwards in terms of 5v5 adjusted shot metrics (based on Evolving Hockey's RAPM model).

The bottom line is that the Jets' projected top-9 now has several players with strong defensive profiles, to combine with Scheifele and Connor that are pure offense.

and a reminder about Perfetti and Ehlers, who will play a much larger role in the top-9 if they are healthy.

 

[JetsFan815]

I do find it interesting is that Scheifele is at the top or near the top of virtually every impact chart yet so many people want to run him out of town. Many talk about room issues but no one has ever posted a firsthand account of him being a problem in the room. I wouldn’t blame the guy if he wanted out but personally I really hope he stays as he makes us a much better team.

Maybe some in the media do but here the prevailing sentiment is (and I include myself in this) "We would love to retain Scheifele on a 4 year deal but it doesn't make a lot of sense to give him a 7-8 year at the caphit he wants considering his age and defensive play". Sure there are a couple of posters who want him out at all cost but most of us would welcome 55 back on a 3-4 year deal.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Maybe some in the media do but here the prevailing sentiment is (and I include myself in this) "We would love to retain Scheifele on a 4 year deal but it doesn't make a lot of sense to give him a 7-8 year at the caphit he wants considering his age and defensive play". Sure there are a couple of posters who want him out at all cost but most of us would welcome 55 back on a 3-4 year deal.

A couple? Who's the other one?

 

[Whileee]

Maybe some in the media do but here the prevailing sentiment is (and I include myself in this) "We would love to retain Scheifele on a 4 year deal but it doesn't make a lot of sense to give him a 7-8 year at the caphit he wants considering his age and defensive play". Sure there are a couple of posters who want him out at all cost but most of us would welcome 55 back on a 3-4 year deal.

I think there is more consensus about avoiding a big 8 year deal, and it's probably unrealistic to expect Scheifele to agree to a 4-year deal.

That leaves some discussion about views on a 6-year deal. My view is that the Jets should strongly consider that, if it's in the 9.0-9.2M range. Another option might be to go as long as 7 years, but at a lower cap hit (maybe around 8M). That would be equivalent to the UFA deal that Kadri has, but would start with Scheifele a year younger than Kadri when he started that deal. If necessary, the last year could be bought out for about 2.7M x 2 years (with a much higher salary cap).

Ultimately, I think Scheifele's fate will be determined by whether he wants to stay in Winnipeg, and whether the Jets want to keep him long-term.

 

[KingBogo]

I’ve been hoping for something like 6 X $8.5 M. That is a total of $51 M in career earnings which seems reasonable. Not sure if he wants to stay in Winnipeg though.

 

[bustamente]

I really do think Scheifele likes it here, big fish small pond kinda thing and I'm sure he would love to sign an 8 year contract for north of 8 but I'm not sure the Jets are of the same mindset. If they can get something done before the season starts that would be great but if the season starts without an extension then much like Helle he is going the free agent route which should make the Jets decision at the deadline easier.

 

[KingBogo]

I really do think Scheifele likes it here, big fish small pond kinda thing and I'm sure he would love to sign an 8 year contract for north of 8 but I'm not sure the Jets are of the same mindset. If they can get something done before the season starts that would be great but if the season starts without an extension then much like Helle he is going the free agent route which should make the Jets decision at the deadline easier.

The decision will only be easy if we are well out of the playoffs. If you sell at the TD while in a playoff position you are telling everyone else the plan is that your intention isn’t to even try to compete. The following year we will have most of our roster as pending free agents or a year away from being a free agent. Why would they think anything will be different the following year?