Rumor: All Purpose Trade Proposals, Speculation and Rumours - 2023/24

[Whileee]

The team looked worse then it was based on going ice cold in terms of finishing last year. I expect more normalized shooting luck this year. We probably have the deepest roster we've had since 2019.

Yup.

Here is a summary of last season's performance for the Jets F additions and subtractions.

Based on xGAR, next season the Jets' F group looks a lot stronger, especially if you assume Ehlers stays health, and Perfetti stays healthy and improves.

 

[Flair Hay]

I think that's always a risk with playoff teams. They often spend (picks / prospects) at the TDL, but end up with a disappointing performance in the playoffs.

The calculation is always related to how strong a contender the team is. If the Jets look like a marginal playoff contender without a clear chance to go far in the playoffs, then the Jets have to be circumspect about planning for the future. The Copp trade is perhaps a demonstration of Chevy's approach. The Jets had a "chance" to make the playoffs, but didn't look like they were going to be a contender. He kept Copp for that season to see how the Jets would pan out, but traded him when the Jets looked "meh".

For next season, on "paper" you could make the argument that the Jets are considerably stronger than last season, and they were a strong team down the stretch last season (7th in the NHL in 5v5 xGF% in the last 30 games), and were on a "heater" going into the playoffs.

View attachment 730299

Looking towards next season, if you compare what the Jets have added and subtracted from the roster (since the TDL), the Jets have had a big net gain (in xGAR and xWAR) by swapping PLD, Wheeler, Stenlund and Manalainen for Niederreiter, Vilardi, Iafallo and Namestnikov.

If you add in a healthy Ehlers and Perfetti for the full season, the Jets look quite a bit deeper and stronger than last season.

So, most teams would not be looking towards a rebuild with that quality of roster, but it will be interesting to see how Chevy balances present vs. future value.

This is really good info. And pretty encouraging.

 

[surixon]

Yup.

Here is a summary of last season's performance for the Jets F additions and subtractions.

Based on xGAR, next season the Jets' F group looks a lot stronger, especially if you assume Ehlers stays health, and Perfetti stays healthy and improves.

View attachment 730303

Agreed.

 

[ps241]

Yup.

Here is a summary of last season's performance for the Jets F additions and subtractions.

Based on xGAR, next season the Jets' F group looks a lot stronger, especially if you assume Ehlers stays health, and Perfetti stays healthy and improves.

View attachment 730303

I like it and it makes sense on paper. We finally have done legit forward depth. If it wasn’t for the expiring contracts of Helle and Scheifele this would be a season to look forward to.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Interesting scenario:

First the team is going to want to leave some spots on 2025 for some kids to claim but they will also need stop gaps as maybe only 1 will be ready to make the jump upfront.

Nino has expressed an interest in staying so I reup him during the 23/24 year for another 2 to 3 years.

Goalie would have to be a stop gap 3 to 4 year option. Thay way it gives enough seasoning time for either Milic/DiVincentiis to emerge.

I mentioned in another thread I'd like to see a Perfetti/Vilardi center hybrid model in 23/24 so that both get reps at center. The goal is for them to both be able to center their own line in the 2025 season. If one or both can't convert then Chevy is really going to have to pull out all the stops to get a center next offseason. But for the purpose of this exercise they both are able to do it.

The real wild card upfront is Ehlers. He will be one year from UFA next summer and my belief is he is going to be dealt at some point. But they may also use him as a rental and sell hi at the deadline.

SO here is the top 6:
Nino Perfetti Ehlers*
Conner Vilardi xxxx

So we have one top 6 spot open for one of Lucious/Lambert/Mgrarty to claim.

Bottom 6 should remain largely unchanged with the following being able to be slotted in a variety of configurations; Kupri, Lowry, Barron, Iafallo, Namestnikov.

There would still be a spot for Gus or for an outside acquisition to get..

On defense my guess is the org makes a play to bring back DeMelo but let's Dillion walk.

Chisholm after a year in the PB as the 7 dmen gets a full time role and Ville gets an NHL roster spot.

.So it will likely be a transitional roster that will further integrate more prospects with injuries and in the 2026 season.

- Nino, 2 years, no more.
- goal could be a decent stopgap for 3 years or 3x1 year stopgap attempts that don't work very well. If we're lucky, Salminen can be the 3 year stopgap.
- I'm still not sold on Perfetti at C. The door has been opened so we will likely see him get a chance. I like the reports from Seattle on Lambert at C. I still think McG could be converted to C. I hope Vilardi succeeds at C. So longer term I think it will be Vilardi and McGroarty. But lots of uncertainty there. If that's the way it goes we may not have contender level top 6C.
- Yes, Ehlers will be the next question mark.
- I wonder if Kupari can step up his game and make the top 6? He used to score pretty well in Liiga as a teenager, but we have seen that movie before.
- That should be the year for at least 1 of Lucius/Lambert/McGroarty but they may have to put in a little time in the bottom 6.
- IDK about Gus. He needs to be better.

- I hope DeMelo is extended for 2-3 years. I hope Dillon is traded b4 he walks but PO position might scuttle that.
- I still can't find room for Heinola. I hope we get something for him in trade.

Could be a high draft pick in 25.

 

[Whileee]

I like it and it makes sense on paper. We finally have done legit forward depth. If it wasn’t for the expiring contracts of Helle and Scheifele this would be a season to look forward to.

Every good team has expiring contracts. The difference is that most teams have an easier time extending players' contracts without overpaying, or adding UFAs if they have cap space, so they don't worry so much about losing players as UFAs.

Most teams with a roster as good as strong as the Jets wouldn't consider trading their top C and ace goalie for futures.

Here's a quick analysis showing how the Jets stack up vs. two other notable Western Conference teams in terms of their roster: top 18 skaters. It's based on xGAR/60, which is only one metric, but it illustrates that the Jets have a comparable roster overall. Now, add in Hellebuyck and the Jets look fairly strong going into the season.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Allright, I'll play

I had a whole big thing typed up, but really, the goaltending thing is the deal-breaker for me. If Hellebuyck really won't stay, it has to be addressed by the 2024 trade deadline. I can't see a way to solve it without acquiring a goalie in trade before then... even if it means flipping him at the deadline for futures to be used as trade chips in the summer. In your hypothetical world, they didn't, so we're f***ed. Simple as that.

surixon's post above mine is good... fill in with your prospects, keep Nino & Demelo. That gets you the bones of a decent roster for 2024-25, but we would be absolutely sunk without a goalie, or extra trade chips we could use to get a goalie. It's really a rebuild if that happens, like it or not.

If not a rebuild, it is at least a quick drop down before rebounding with the new core and an in house goalie solution.

A possible solution in goal could be something like the much discussed NJD trade, Vanecek, Holtz, 1st, or similar. Flip those assets for a goalie. Or flip them for a C and trade Scheifele for a goalie.

Vanecek + Holtz to Buffalo for Kulich. We keep the pick from NJD. Vanecek is not the goalie they need but he is quite a lot better than what they have, and Holtz is a legit prospect. Scheifele to Boston for 1 or the other of their goalies. I'll take either one. Other pieces added to either or both deals to make caps work and fine tune values.

Alternatively, Vanecek could be the 3 year stopgap goalie for us. Extend Scheifele. Use Holtz + 1st + whatever is necessary to get RHD from somewhere.

 

[surixon]

- Nino, 2 years, no more.
- goal could be a decent stopgap for 3 years or 3x1 year stopgap attempts that don't work very well. If we're lucky, Salminen can be the 3 year stopgap.
- I'm still not sold on Perfetti at C. The door has been opened so we will likely see him get a chance. I like the reports from Seattle on Lambert at C. I still think McG could be converted to C. I hope Vilardi succeeds at C. So longer term I think it will be Vilardi and McGroarty. But lots of uncertainty there. If that's the way it goes we may not have contender level top 6C.
- Yes, Ehlers will be the next question mark.
- I wonder if Kupari can step up his game and make the top 6? He used to score pretty well in Liiga as a teenager, but we have seen that movie before.
- That should be the year for at least 1 of Lucius/Lambert/McGroarty but they may have to put in a little time in the bottom 6.
- IDK about Gus. He needs to be better.

- I hope DeMelo is extended for 2-3 years. I hope Dillon is traded b4 he walks but PO position might scuttle that.
- I still can't find room for Heinola. I hope we get something for him in trade.

Could be a high draft pick in 25.

I am curious but what reservations do you have about Cole and the center position?

It's interesting that you bring up Lambert playing C in the Dub but Cole as a younger player was putting up a .82 ppg as a center in the AHL against men.

The thing is Cole has already shown he can succeed as a center against pro talent and none of the other prospects have.

McGroarty hasn't played the position in years so not sure he is even a viable candidate.

 

[surixon]

Every good team has expiring contracts. The difference is that most teams have an easier time extending players' contracts without overpaying, or adding UFAs if they have cap space, so they don't worry so much about losing players as UFAs.

Most teams with a roster as good as strong as the Jets wouldn't consider trading their top C and ace goalie for futures.

Here's a quick analysis showing how the Jets stack up vs. two other notable Western Conference teams in terms of their roster: top 18 skaters. It's based on xGAR/60, which is only one metric, but it illustrates that the Jets have a comparable roster overall. Now, add in Hellebuyck and the Jets look fairly strong going into the season.

View attachment 730385

The main question will be if the players brought in can replicate their success here.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I am curious but what reservations do you have about Cole and the center position?

It's interesting that you bring up Lambert playing C in the Dub but Cole as a younger player was putting up a .82 ppg as a center in the AHL against men.

The thing is Cole has already shown he can succeed as a center against pro talent and none of the other prospects have.

McGroarty hasn't played the position in years so not sure he is even a viable candidate.

Not as well founded as your belief in him there - but size, speed and durability.

I thought his use at C by the Moose was kind of sporadic. But I'm mostly just being from Missouri. I'll buy it when I see it. Not saying it can't or won't happen. But show me.

Yes, I know McG hasn't been playing there. I think he should have been. I don't know that Jets are even considering developing him there, but I think they should.

Everyone said Jarmo was crazy for drafting PLD as a C, hadn't played the position in years, wouldn't be able to convert successfully, etc. I see McG as the same type of power F C. Maybe I'm full of it but that is what I see.

 

[Whileee]

The main question will be if the players brought in can replicate their success here.

No doubt. Also, coaching and usage. Use Ehlers more. Separate Scheifele and Connor.

 

[surixon]

Not as well founded as your belief in him there - but size, speed and durability.

I thought his use at C by the Moose was kind of sporadic. But I'm mostly just being from Missouri. I'll buy it when I see it. Not saying it can't or won't happen. But show me.

Yes, I know McG hasn't been playing there. I think he should have been. I don't know that Jets are even considering developing him there, but I think they should.

Everyone said Jarmo was crazy for drafting PLD as a C, hadn't played the position in years, wouldn't be able to convert successfully, etc. I see McG as the same type of power F C. Maybe I'm full of it but that is what I see.

Perfetti's first year on the Moose he was a full time center.

His second stint he played the first three games there and then played left wing the remaining 14 while double shifting as the 4C.

They then played him at C for the prospect tourny last fall.

It seems to me that they plan on giving him a shot there especially in light of Chevy's comments once he traded Dubois.

Fair points on McGroarty. Ideally he also is able to convert and we can run a strong top 3 down the Middle and be more new age in terms of deployment.

 

[surixon]

No doubt. Also, coaching and usage. Use Ehlers more. Separate Scheifele and Connor.

Yeah, Bones has the pieces this year. Will he use them correctly. That is the main thing.

 

[tbcwpg]

Perfetti's first year on the Moose he was a full time center.

His second stint he played the first three games there and then played left wing the remaining 14 while double shifting as the 4C.

They then played him at C for the prospect tourny last fall.

It seems to me that they plan on giving him a shot there especially in light of Chevy's comments once he traded Dubois.

Fair points on McGroarty. Ideally he also is able to convert and we can run a strong top 3 down the Middle and be more new age in terms of deployment.

I think the idea of "just develop him" is so flawed, especially when it comes to developing that player at probably the hardest position to play well in the sport when he hasn't played there for a long time with his peers, let alone at a pro level. If he's not playing C at the NCAA level I have a hard time seeing him as a regular top 6 centre in the NHL.

 

[surixon]

I think the idea of "just develop him" is so flawed, especially when it comes to developing that player at probably the hardest position to play well in the sport when he hasn't played there for a long time with his peers, let alone at a pro level. If he's not playing C at the NCAA level I have a hard time seeing him as a regular top 6 centre in the NHL.

Yeah, not everyone can convert successfully. In Cole's case he's always played like a center in terms of style of play and shown he can do it at a pro level. I don't see it being a big transition for him given he was routinely picking up the centers responsibilities in his end last year.

There would be an adjustment but he's highly intelligent and has shown he can play all forward positions going back years now.

 

[tbcwpg]

Yeah, not everyone can convert successfully. In Cole's case he's always played like a center in terms of style of play and shown he can do it at a pro level. I don't see it being a big transition for him given he was routinely picking up the centers responsibilities in his end last year.

There would be an adjustment but he's highly intelligent and has shown he can play all forward positions going back years now.

I realize I wasn't that clear, I was more talking about McGroarty than Perfetti. I think Perfetti might be able to handle it given what I've seen, but I'd rather develop McGroarty into a very good player on the wing than potentially ruin him by jamming him into a centre roll immediately.

 

[surixon]

I realize I wasn't that clear, I was more talking about McGroarty than Perfetti. I think Perfetti might be able to handle it given what I've seen, but I'd rather develop McGroarty into a very good player on the wing than potentially ruin him by jamming him into a centre roll immediately.

Yeah I got what you were getting at. Was just contrasting him with a player who looks like he could convert. I agree that Mcgroarty is likely going to be a winger as I assume the org will go the sign him out of college at the end of the year route. He likely has a roster spot in 2024/25

 

[KingBogo]

Yup.

Here is a summary of last season's performance for the Jets F additions and subtractions.

Based on xGAR, next season the Jets' F group looks a lot stronger, especially if you assume Ehlers stays health, and Perfetti stays healthy and improves.

View attachment 730303

I do find it interesting is that Scheifele is at the top or near the top of virtually every impact chart yet so many people want to run him out of town. Many talk about room issues but no one has ever posted a firsthand account of him being a problem in the room. I wouldn’t blame the guy if he wanted out but personally I really hope he stays as he makes us a much better team.

 

[DRW204]

which impact chart or stat specifically are you referencing? league or team?

not surprised if it's team. his impact has been clearly missed in the POs.

the amount of posts i've seen that "we'll be fine w/o him" or "get rid of him" etc. is baffling. there's 0 surefire top line C caliber players on this team sans scheifele.

I do find it interesting is that Scheifele is at the top or near the top of virtually every impact chart yet so many people want to run him out of town. Many talk about room issues but no one has ever posted a firsthand account of him being a problem in the room. I wouldn’t blame the guy if he wanted out but personally I really hope he stays as he makes us a much better team.

 

[KingBogo]

which impact chart or stat specifically are you referencing? league or team?

not surprised if it's team. his impact has been clearly missed in the POs.

the amount of posts i've seen that "we'll be fine w/o him" or "get rid of him" etc. is baffling. there's 0 surefire top line C caliber players on this team sans scheifele.

I’m referring generally to what @Whileee has been posting. And who I’m I to argue with a math professor.

 

[Cnile]

I think everyone is waiting for the fallout from that Junior Team Canada scandal.

Hart is not one of the guys in trouble is what I have read elsewhere.

 

[10Ducky10]

Hart is not one of the guys in trouble is what I have read elsewhere.

All I know is that he was on that team.
I am intrigued by this and wondering what will happen...how it will be handled.

 

[Cnile]

All I know is that he was on that team.
I am intrigued by this and wondering what will happen...how it will be handled.

I wouldn’t mind Hart here.

 

[Whileee]

which impact chart or stat specifically are you referencing? league or team?

not surprised if it's team. his impact has been clearly missed in the POs.

the amount of posts i've seen that "we'll be fine w/o him" or "get rid of him" etc. is baffling. there's 0 surefire top line C caliber players on this team sans scheifele.

Here's where Scheifele fits - top 5 percentile among forwards last season. His closest comparables? MacKinnon and Thompson.

Scheifele is paid considerably less than his comparables.

Scheifele has been the Jets most effective forward in the playoffs over the past several seasons, and the Jets have been overmatched without him.

 

[Flair Hay]

Here's where Scheifele fits - top 5 percentile among forwards last season. His closest comparables? MacKinnon and Thompson.

Scheifele is paid considerably less than his comparables.

View attachment 730446

Scheifele has been the Jets most effective forward in the playoffs over the past several seasons, and the Jets have been overmatched without him.

Is this a Scheifele hype post disguised as a Gabe Vilardi hype post?? Encouraging to see his name on that chart for sure