IIRC I have already posted predicting them both being here to start the season so I am not disagreeing with you.
A lot depends on Helle. His first statement, and it was clear, was simply that he does not want to be around for a rebuild. Extending that a bit, he wants to have a chance at the Cup. So I don't think it is quite 100% that he won't extend here. If he is hearing that the reason he is not traded is because teams are leery of paying him
AND if he is persuaded that Jets can contend in the near future he still might stay. I'm calling it 80-20 that he goes. Maybe that is optimistic.
Maybe if Scheifele extends, he sees the possibility.
Your points:
1) I agree Chevy has been laying the ground work - but if Chevy ever said anything it was an accident and you can't read anything into it. More likely he is just putting on a show for potential trade partners. That is, if they won't pay for our guys, we'll keep them.
2) I think a Scheifele extension is more likely than a Helle one. Maybe 50/50? But there are teams badly in need of top 6 Cs. Boston especially.
This from a Boston writer:
Bruins Have the Pieces to Acquire Jets' Scheifele
3) You said it yourself. He HAS to do something. The own rental thing would be an absolute disaster IMO, unless we make it to at least the Conf final - at least.
4) Could be, but there is still quite a bit of buzz about various things. Now that Debrincat is done I think Hellebuyck is next up. It may go quiet on any particular front for a while and then ramp up. PLD to LAK kind of did that. Maybe Helle to NJD does the same.
If we extend Scheifele, it becomes easier to deal with NJD. If Helle has really indicated that he would like to sign with them it should happen. We can make the cap work for them and they have interesting pieces. I've proposed we take Marino. The good thing about that for them is that it gives them cap relief for 4 years, not just 1. But lots of potential flexibility if we don't need to get a C in return for Helle.