Rumor: All Purpose Trade Proposals, Speculation and Rumours - 2023/24

[DRW204]

Why would that not happen here? Our clearest needs are 1RD and 2C.

If he was a capable high end C, Carolina would be playing him there. They don't have much down the middle after Aho. Probably worse than us. So what makes you think that changes here?

Additionally, it came out he's unhappy with his usage, what makes you think he'll be in a more favorable position here?

It also seems like the Jets don't like players with his style of play.

 

[surixon]

Most of Ehlers goals come from the hash marks or behind. MoneyPuck.com -Shot Maps

NHL edge has him at 15 of his goals from mid range. Given that the data used is from the puck and player chip tracking I'd peg it as the most accurate available.

But even still you'd expect most forwards to score more closer to the net. It doesn't change the fact that he shoots mostly from mid to long range.

In terms of percentage of shots:

Scheifele 52% from high dangerous and 85% from high and mid.
Vilardi 56% from high and 77% from high and mid
Perfetti 43% from high and 71% from high and mid
KC 35% from high and 76% from high and mid
Ehlers 19% from high and 51% from high and mid.

Is it any wonder despite being a great player he clashes with the others in the top 6. All the rest are selective in where they shoot from. Ehlers just shoots and half of his shots are from poor areas on the ice.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think most posters would be happy if he were to re-sign, I think the negativity comes after posters claim he can't be replaced or we are doomed with out him

Yes, we react to one another and sometimes overreact.

He certainly can be replaced, but players with his talent don't grow on trees. He isn't likely to be replaced in any trade. But he is likely to be partially replaced. If we settle for futures though, that replacement is years away.

We are not doomed without him but we are probably a weaker team without him.

OTOH, I can imagine scenarios where he is not missed by much. Lets say we get a decent 1RD in trade, Perfetti takes a step forward and a rookie replaces some of his offense. That might be a bit optimistic but it is not out of sight. I will still miss his entertainment value but the team might be just fine, thanks.

 

[Whileee]

NHL edge has him at 15 of his goals from mid range. Given that the data used is from the puck and player chip tracking I'd peg it as the most accurate available.

But even still you'd expect most forwards to score more closer to the net. It doesn't change the fact that he shoots mostly from mid to long range.

In terms of percentage of shots:

Scheifele 52% from high dangerous and 85% from high and mid.
Vilardi 56% from high and 77% from high and mid
Perfetti 43% from high and 71% from high and mid
KC 35% from high and 76% from high and mid
Ehlers 19% from high and 51% from high and mid.

Is it any wonder despite being a great player he clashes with the others in the top 6. All the rest are selective in where they shoot from. Ehlers just shoots and half of his shots are from poor areas on the ice.

...more evidence that Ehlers is a perfect fit for the Carolina system?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If he was a capable high end C, Carolina would be playing him there. They don't have much down the middle after Aho. Probably worse than us. So what makes you think that changes here?

Additionally, it came out he's unhappy with his usage, what makes you think he'll be in a more favorable position here?

It also seems like the Jets don't like players with his style of play.

Agreed. Others have pointed out that Car's need at C is even greater than ours and they didn't use him there. So I don't think he is a candidate for that spot. Apparently he disagrees and wants to play C. I hope he is not what we go after.

 

[Jets 31]

Your emphasis on the 4 goals is a little misleading. You keep saying that often enough and it starts to look a lot like only 4 points. He has 14 pts in those 37 games. Still disappointing underperformance, but less bad than the emphasis on 4 of those points.

14 points in 37 games sounds even worse actually, Pionk has 14 points in 22 playoff games for example. I like Ehlers but you just can't have such little production from one of your core players. Scheifele has 21 goals and 38 points in 42 games, Connor has 15 goals and 32 points in 45 games . 4 goals and 14 points in 37 games is not very good from your 3rd best player.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Interesting. I might want one of their prospects like Savoie for him as he'd be closer to the NHL.

Jiri Kulich. From the same draft class but Kulich has spent the 2 seasons since being drafted playing in the AHL and doing very well there, especially considering his age.

Wasn't drafted as high so seems to fly under the radar just a bit. But he excels everywhere he plays, including best on best international play.

On the smaller side but bigger than Savoie. Size is a thing. Might be the difference between being able to play C and not.

 

[surixon]

Jiri Kulich. From the same draft class but Kulich has spent the 2 seasons since being drafted playing in the AHL and doing very well there, especially considering his age.

Wasn't drafted as high so seems to fly under the radar just a bit. But he excels everywhere he plays, including best on best international play.

On the smaller side but bigger than Savoie. Size is a thing. Might be the difference between being able to play C and not.

Don't know enough about him as a prospect but if he fits the template then by all means.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I doubt Buffalo wants Ehlers they have a bunch of highly skilled wingers already. I think they would like a 2nd line shutdown type of center that can produce.

I would like in our own division like Utah for an Ehlers deal. Even something like Ehlers+Schmidt for whatever you are going to get which could just be a ton of assets

Beyond a ton of picks and some players I know they won't part with, I'm not all that impressed by Utah's assets. Who would you want?

 

[Daximus]

Yes, we react to one another and sometimes overreact.

He certainly can be replaced, but players with his talent don't grow on trees. He isn't likely to be replaced in any trade. But he is likely to be partially replaced. If we settle for futures though, that replacement is years away.

We are not doomed without him but we are probably a weaker team without him.

OTOH, I can imagine scenarios where he is not missed by much. Lets say we get a decent 1RD in trade, Perfetti takes a step forward and a rookie replaces some of his offense. That might be a bit optimistic but it is not out of sight. I will still miss his entertainment value but the team might be just fine, thanks.

In the regular season he is a special player with high entertainment value that regularly outproduces his icetime and is a transition monster.

In the post season he is barely a replacement level player that regularly underproduces his icetime and is a possession liability.

It's Jekyll and Hyde.

I don't see to many top 4 D available right now, who knows what happens in the coming months, but I have a feeling Ehlers will eventually be moved for a futures based package.

 

[Gm0ney]

NHL edge has him at 15 of his goals from mid range. Given that the data used is from the puck and player chip tracking I'd peg it as the most accurate available.

But even still you'd expect most forwards to score more closer to the net. It doesn't change the fact that he shoots mostly from mid to long range.

In terms of percentage of shots:

Scheifele 52% from high dangerous and 85% from high and mid.
Vilardi 56% from high and 77% from high and mid
Perfetti 43% from high and 71% from high and mid
KC 35% from high and 76% from high and mid
Ehlers 19% from high and 51% from high and mid.

Is it any wonder despite being a great player he clashes with the others in the top 6. All the rest are selective in where they shoot from. Ehlers just shoots and half of his shots are from poor areas on the ice.

He's a bit of a volume shooter. 47th in on-ice SF/60 over the last 3 seasons (min. 1000 minutes at 5v5). 42nd in CF/60.

But still, he gets very good results: his GF/60 is 3.41 - 26th in the NHL and he's 24th in xGF/60 at 3.15.

And his individual G/60 over the last 3 years is 1.16 - 19th in the NHL. Just 0.04/60 behind Kyle Connor.

It's a bit amazing he's able to score at that rate despite taking 49% of his shots from low danger areas.

 

[voyageur]

...more evidence that Ehlers is a perfect fit for the Carolina system?

If anybody could replace Guentzel, Necas and Teravainen with Ehlers and Laine it's the Canes.. but I don't think Necas would re-sign long term here and what does Carolina have for prospects other than Morrow, who replaces somebody on defense? Hard to see them moving Jarvis or Drury who have been part of their success.

 

[surixon]

He's a bit of a volume shooter. 47th in on-ice SF/60 over the last 3 seasons (min. 1000 minutes at 5v5). 42nd in CF/60.

But still, he gets very good results: his GF/60 is 3.41 - 26th in the NHL and he's 24th in xGF/60 at 3.15.

And his individual G/60 over the last 3 years is 1.16 - 19th in the NHL. Just 0.04/60 behind Kyle Connor.

It's a bit amazing he's able to score at that rate despite taking 49% of his shots from low danger areas.

Yeah, he's done well scoring from distance. Nothing wrong with being a volume shooter, it just opposite with what out other players elect to do. To be fair though Scheifele and Vilardi are too selective in their shooting and dont shoot enough. Which is likely why their metrics stink together. Also likely why Mark doesn't like playing with Fly. Fly wants to shoot, Mark wants to wait for the perfect opportunity.

I think KC and Cole are in the range I'd prefer. They take more shots but still keep most in the high to mid danger areas.

 

[Eyeseeing]

14 points in 37 games sounds even worse actually, Pionk has 14 points in 22 playoff games for example. I like Ehlers but you just can't have such little production from one of your core players. Scheifele has 21 goals and 38 points in 42 games, Connor has 15 goals and 32 points in 45 games . 4 goals and 14 points in 37 games is not very good from your 3rd best player.

Even worse is the whole teams playoff record.
The personal stats mean squat , we don't win enough in the playoffs period.
Rather than focusing on two individuals, maybe Chevy needs to figure this shit out.
Stop relying solely on goaltending to get you to the playoffs & build a roster than can find another gear, that's literally his job.

 

[Gm0ney]

If anybody could replace Guentzel, Necas and Teravainen with Ehlers and Laine it's the Canes.. but I don't think Necas would re-sign long term here and what does Carolina have for prospects other than Morrow, who replaces somebody on defense? Hard to see them moving Jarvis or Drury who have been part of their success.

Maybe Nikishin...if he'd come over from Russia.

 

[Whileee]

If anybody could replace Guentzel, Necas and Teravainen with Ehlers and Laine it's the Canes.. but I don't think Necas would re-sign long term here and what does Carolina have for prospects other than Morrow, who replaces somebody on defense? Hard to see them moving Jarvis or Drury who have been part of their success.

The Canes have a number of good forward prospects / young players. They might not be A-level, but a prospect like Blake or a young player like Drury could be of interest to the Jets. For the Jets, it will be about getting overall value, even if it doesn't replace Ehlers directly and immediately.

 

[Jets 31]

Even worse is the whole teams playoff record.
The personal stats mean squat , we don't win enough in the playoffs period.
Rather than focusing on two individuals, maybe Chevy needs to figure this shit out.
Stop relying solely on goaltending to get you to the playoffs & build a roster than can find another gear, that's literally his job.

I agree not many players play well in the playoffs for us including Helly, we need more grit and absolutely need to fix the defense.

 

[DRW204]

Agreed. Others have pointed out that Car's need at C is even greater than ours and they didn't use him there. So I don't think he is a candidate for that spot. Apparently he disagrees and wants to play C. I hope he is not what we go after.

ok so not sure exactly why you must fight every post.

 

[RustyCat]

NHL edge has him at 15 of his goals from mid range. Given that the data used is from the puck and player chip tracking I'd peg it as the most accurate available.

But even still you'd expect most forwards to score more closer to the net. It doesn't change the fact that he shoots mostly from mid to long range.

In terms of percentage of shots:

Scheifele 52% from high dangerous and 85% from high and mid.
Vilardi 56% from high and 77% from high and mid
Perfetti 43% from high and 71% from high and mid
KC 35% from high and 76% from high and mid
Ehlers 19% from high and 51% from high and mid.

Is it any wonder despite being a great player he clashes with the others in the top 6. All the rest are selective in where they shoot from. Ehlers just shoots and half of his shots are from poor areas on the ice.

I wasn't going to reply as this is a great discussion and am, truthfully, not as astute on analytics as some folks here (which I certainly appreciate, it is something a little more difficult for this simpleton to grasp!) - but your point in bolded is so critically important. I do not know if it is a thing, or if it is even measured, but from what the eye test shows is that those low-danger shots (from far out or bad angles) oftentimes lead to a controlled rebound, missing the net and/or easily blocked - all of which seemingly transition quickly into breakouts. It is a frustrating sequence to watch. NYR fans have a very similar feel to Zibenijad's tendencies as it results in the same outcomes.

So to your point on a possible reason why he clashes is no doubt due to the continuous amount of low danger plays that convert to transitions, while others in the top six are more timely and precise (as your data pointed out).

Ironically, as a player that can sometimes be heralded as unpredictable and difficult to play with, his predictability in high volume shots from low danger spots resulting in turnovers is equally relevant.

Just some thoughts. Anyways, keep on talking y'all cuz some of us are covertly learning shit that we can later regurgitate to sound smart to some unsuspecting shmuck.

 

[DRW204]

He's a bit of a volume shooter. 47th in on-ice SF/60 over the last 3 seasons (min. 1000 minutes at 5v5). 42nd in CF/60.

But still, he gets very good results: his GF/60 is 3.41 - 26th in the NHL and he's 24th in xGF/60 at 3.15.

And his individual G/60 over the last 3 years is 1.16 - 19th in the NHL. Just 0.04/60 behind Kyle Connor.

It's a bit amazing he's able to score at that rate despite taking 49% of his shots from low danger areas.

id be concerned if ehlers was killing plays & Jets routinely getting out-chanced or out-scored w/ him on the ice. but that hasn't been the case.

If anybody could replace Guentzel, Necas and Teravainen with Ehlers and Laine it's the Canes.. but I don't think Necas would re-sign long term here and what does Carolina have for prospects other than Morrow, who replaces somebody on defense? Hard to see them moving Jarvis or Drury who have been part of their success.

i can see them re-signing tervainen, & then going for a lesser LW as the other top-6er. i thought they'd go hard after guentzel however it seems like guentzel wants to test the market. don't think Carolina will get into a bidding war for him.

 

[Jack7222]

I'm pro balanced lines but to me they need gritty players that can read the game offensively well enough to keep up. Nino is one such player but we'd need more of them to run such a system.

This isn't meant to slag Lowry but that is an area he isn't good enough and that to me is why we have deployed line 3 in the way we have. The offense that runs through that line is very simplistic and doesn't work well with more skilled players. We tried that a couple times over the years. We've tried Laine, Perfetti, Toffoli, and Ehlers at various times over the years with him and it just doesn't click.

I think at this point in his career I think the Jets have appropriately identified what works for him line wise.

And then the types of players you need to make the Lowry line work (Perreault, Nino) are then prevented from bringing their rounded games to help balance out the more skilled lines.

 

[voyageur]

And then the types of players you need to make the Lowry line work (Perreault, Nino) are then prevented from bringing their rounded games to help balance out the more skilled lines.

I don't know, Lowry's line was the only constant last year without injury. They must have done something right to not get broken up...Nino had some big moments on that line and Appleton finally hit a career high in goals.

I always wonder what a coach's conversation with Lowry is like...he's been the guy who suffered the most when the Jets struggled to put together a solid top 9 of forwards, asked to carry his line...Nino can carry his weight and I think that's got to be a nice change for Adam...before last year I would have said that Kupari was competition for Appleton, but I think that's less evident...my question is if the Jets improve the pace and possession impacts of the defense can that line improve on last season...2024 was probably the best 4 line hockey the Jets played since 2018.

 

[WolfHouse]

I don't know, Lowry's line was the only constant last year without injury. They must have done something right to not get broken up...Nino had some big moments on that line and Appleton finally hit a career high in goals.

I always wonder what a coach's conversation with Lowry is like...he's been the guy who suffered the most when the Jets struggled to put together a solid top 9 of forwards, asked to carry his line...Nino can carry his weight and I think that's got to be a nice change for Adam...before last year I would have said that Kupari was competition for Appleton, but I think that's less evident...my question is if the Jets improve the pace and possession impacts of the defense can that line improve on last season...2024 was probably the best 4 line hockey the Jets played since 2018.

Lowry has suffered the most in line combos???? Haha

 

[Gil Fisher]

You know I've been playing around with edge data and Fly really stands out in comparison to the other top 6 players on the team.

I know some think we have a team of perimeter players in the top 6 but that really only applies to Ehlers. All of Perfetti, Scheifele and Vilardi are well above league average in terms of shots on goal from high danger location. KC is also above league average but not as good as the other three. Ehlers on the other hand was just average in terms of high danger shots. He was above average in mid to long distance shots. He is largely a perimeter shooter and imo when teams tighten up in the playoffs its much harder to score from distance and that is Fly's preferred type of game.

I know ice time will be brought up but Perfetti in far less minutes and games had roughly 20 more high dangerous shots on net then Ehlers. So to me it's a playstyle thing. Most of our top 6 is getting to those tough areas and imo that is where you need to go to score in the playoffs.

I think you have to consider transition offense here too. Not sure where they all rank.

 

[Gil Fisher]

What part don't you accept? You don't think he shys away from contact? You don't think he afraid to go to the dirty areas?

I mean it's pretty easy to see.

Less so than Connor to be fair.