Rumor: All Purpose Trade Proposals, Speculation and Rumours - 2023/24

[gojetsgo]

I don’t get all the negativity towards Ehlers, like at all.
He plays with passion and he doesn’t shy away from the rough stuff.
He’s one of the most exciting skaters in the league.
The Jets knew what they had when they selected him so not sure why:

A. They have kept him as long as they have.
B. Figured out how best to use him.

That’s not an Ehlers problem that’s an organizational problem.

I think most posters would be happy if he were to re-sign, I think the negativity comes after posters claim he can't be replaced or we are doomed with out him

 

[Eyeseeing]

I think most posters would be happy if he were to re-sign, I think the negativity comes after posters claim he can't be replaced or we are doomed with out him

I really hope he stays but if he doesn’t that’s the business side of hockey and ultimately whatever is best for him.
I think he’s an identifiable player across the league that some teams would want to sign 100%

 

[BarnabyJones PI]

I place zero weight on playoff performance. With small sample sizes, you're going to get misleading results, which people can and will misinterpret to their detriment. Controversial? Sure. Do I care? Nope.

However, despite what I said above, there is one aspect of playoff hockey that is proven by the numbers and the eye test alike that could matter here. We know that Ehlers is among the best skaters in terms of drawing penalties with his speed, and since teams get away with more infractions in the postseason, Ehlers' play-driving can be interfered with more easily. And when you're the only one capable of skating the puck out of your own zone on your line, well... you've already mentioned what that could lead to.

The playoff sample sizes are absolutely abysmal and hence not worth mentioning here (91 ES minutes in the last three postseasons = jack shit), but since Ehlers' penalty differential is roughly in the top 30 in the entire league in the regular season, it should be a non-trivial issue. Whether this is fixed by getting rid of Ehlers outright is a question that many other posters seem to have an answer to. Based on how the series against the Avs went, I'd say that slower is not what we would have needed to be.

I would love to see you represent Ehlers for his next contract. "Playoffs, ha! It means nothing to me, nor my client!"

I'm not convinced that Ehlers would work well with other top-speed players. He's not a North-South guy, nor is he a center (which I think he should have been). He's also sort of on his own page when he's at top speed. I don't really think of him as a give-and-go type. More like him buzzing around, left to his own devices.

He was working fine with Monahan in the regular season - who has a pretty good playoff resume all things considered - as he was with Namestnikov before that. I think you could make an argument that he needs guys who can sag off of him, giving him enough room to operate.

 

[Buffdog]

The statement that Ehlers is "unquestionably" our best player is a bit over the top. Clearly, it can be questioned. I think he is our most skilled or talented forward. You probably question that too though.

But 5v5 or P/60 are hardly extreme stats, or manufactured stats. They are not even "advanced stats". Yes, Scheifele outscores Ehlers in actual points. Does he outscore the opposition?

You agree that advanced stats are a useful tool but argue vehemently against any use of them to actually analyze anything. Or maybe it is just anything that contradicts your opinions.

In the absence of a McDavid or Mackinnon, I think it's tough to isolate a "most skilled or talented forward" on most teams. I think Ehlers is our best puck carrier up front. He skates extremely well with the puck and can change directions without losing speed

In terms of pure hands/scoring touch around the net, I'd give the nod to Connor or Vilardi. Shooting from a distance would maybe be Ehlers or Schief.

So he's up there for sure

As for the rest of it, Lowry outscores his opposition but would you say he's more valuable to the team than Schief?

As for analytics, I've said in the past that they are an objective observation that can go into decision making processes. I used line combinations as an example. But they can't be the only criteria. I've never discredited them directly, just conclusions that people have drawn from (in my opinion) overvaluing them or dismissing all other relevant factors

 

[LowLefty]

I don't claim Ehlers has played well in the PO. He has not. And it isn't just that he has been unlucky either. He has played poorly. The best explanation I can come up with, and I know it is a poor one, is that his linemates are playing poorly, or he doesn't trust them to play well and he tries to do too much.

You are correct - it is a poor one.
Ehlers pretty much does his own thing out there most nights - that's his game and has little to do with trust (IMO).

He's played that way his whole career - he tries to do too much on his own which is likely the reason he struggles in the PO's.
When teams button things down and add another level of speed, grit and urgency to their game, the guys that suffer the most will be the players that used to get the space and time to do it on their own.

 

[Gm0ney]

I've not made this point. He's one of the key reasons though. I'm definitely making that point, and will continue to do so whenever the subject comes up; and that trusty red light goes off warning me.

If Ehlers is going to be elevated by a number of key posters here, as to the main reason why the offense is (relatively) successful in the regular season, those same people can't (but they will) all-of-a-sudden downplay his importance when things go South every time the playoffs come; at least the past 3 sweeps. You have to be a bit clued-in as to why the team is struggling, and he's the main common denominator; I'd say going back to Vegas in 2018.

He missed the first 2 games vs Edmonton, and that was the last series we have won.

I haven't heard too much from @Gm0ney or @Maukkis and a long list of others, who overlap in a love of analytics and Ehlers being their favorite player, to give even the slightest reason as to why they think he fails in the playoffs. All intelligent people (save for the teen who only posts other people's work). And when I say reason, I'm not talking about how "every one on the team bombed" or "he's being deployed incorrectly", "usage", etc.

I mean, why is he playing so poorly relative to how he plays in the regular season, considering he has success leading a 2nd unit (though the "leading" part is debatable but I'll go with it here), driving the 2nd unit, against (in theory) more favorable matchups. Sure, he might put up better numbers on that 1st line in the playoffs, but what's happening to him with his own line? Why gloss over that?

The analytical-type will hijack a celebratory thread, on a +5 game winning streak, to tell you what's not working, yet, Ehlers fails again, nothing is said by (most) of those same people. Fascinating. You have all of that intelligence, and information at your finger tips, and no one seems to be the least bit interested in investigating "Why Ehlers isn't good in the playoffs?"

*IS* Ehlers a key reason why the Jets have failed in the playoffs since 2017-18? He's the 9th Jets forward in TOI/GP since then. Right behind...CODY EAKIN? Seems like a guy getting so little ice would not be the lynchpin of the team's success or failure. But maybe I'm just blinded by my love of Ehlers...

 

[BarnabyJones PI]

These are reasons, "every one on the team bombed" or "he's being deployed incorrectly", "usage". But I get what you want. You want a more specific to his personal play reason. What does he do wrong, or differently. I can't give you that. Is it what the opposition does to him? Maybe, but then why isn't that answer enough for all of the rest of the Jets roster?

You can put more blame on Ehlers because he is supposed to be our most talented forward, if not our best forward. But again, apply that to every other Jet in the top 6/top 4/goal. Do you think Jets would have won that series against the Avs if Ehlers had been press boxed? Would they even have somehow come closer?

I don't claim Ehlers has played well in the PO. He has not. And it isn't just that he has been unlucky either. He has played poorly. The best explanation I can come up with, and I know it is a poor one, is that his linemates are playing poorly, or he doesn't trust them to play well and he tries to do too much.

Whatever the problem, I think it is up to the coaches to figure it out and fix it. If your most talented player is playing that poorly you need to change something. Change his linemates, or instruct them to play differently. Do SOMETHING differently!

All the smoke seems to indicate that what Ehlers and management have both decided is to part ways. A very weak response but maybe the best thing at this point.



OK, I give up. If you can't see the difference, I can't force you to.

I guess the way I see it, is if a poster shows you all of the analytic arguments as to why Ehlers is our most talented forward, if not our best forward, but they can't provide a single one about why this isn't the case in the playoffs, then you're going to have a very hard time convincing me that analytics aren't misleading.

To answer those questions. No. No. But I would say the same thing about literally every key player in the playoffs. I've not made the argument that he's the sole reason we lost. Has anyone?

 

[BarnabyJones PI]

*IS* Ehlers a key reason why the Jets have failed in the playoffs since 2017-18? He's the 9th Jets forward in TOI/GP since then. Right behind...CODY EAKIN? Seems like a guy getting so little ice would not be the lynchpin of the team's success or failure. But maybe I'm just blinded by my love of Ehlers...

Yes, you are blinded.

You elevate him so high above others, and when things get rough, "He's just another guy on the team..."

Hey, perhaps we could have been doing worse had he played more.

There's that predictable closing, I was banking on resurfacing. You were doing so well.

 

[surixon]

I think you are right that he will take off in the top six next year and play more than 16mins a night and score 60+ points and never look back. I think he is really happy playing in Winnipeg and looks to really like his teammates and the city. But I can understand that he would have been frustrated with usage. Even when he was near a point per game he was playing 14 mins or less a night. He was leading the team in PP points and was on the second unit. Never saw 4 on 4 or 3 on 3 ice and didn't even shoot in the shootout.

People keep going back to the slump for his reduced role. When he went cold for 10 games they moved him to the 4th line and then to the press box. That is why the slump lasted so long. They could have helped him and given him more opportunities like they did for others when they went cold to get him going, instead they did the opposite.

Interestingly:

Nino didn't score a goal in his last 21 games (including playoffs) and didn't miss a minute of ice. He also went a stretch earlier in the season where he had 2 goals in 24 games. So two separate long streaks and he didn't get benched or sent to the 4th.

Appleton finished the year with 1 goal in his last 17 games. He also had an earlier stretch with 1 goal in 17 games and earlier stretch with no goals in 25 games.. Yet he never lost ice.

Iafallo finished the year with 1 goal in his last 22 games. He also had an earlier stretch where he had 1 goal in 27 games and that was mostly on the top line and top PP. Never once scratched or called out.

Lowry started the year with two goals in his first 17 games. He also had a 21 game stretch with zero goals during the season.

There are others with long goalless and pointless droughts as well but no one was treated like Cole for their slumps.

If I was a player I would look at everyone around me and wonder why I was the only one being so easily demoted or scratched. I would wonder why I was playing 13 mins a game even when I was amongst the leaders on the team in scoring and my defensive numbers were very good. I would wonder why I wasn't on PP1 even when I had the most PP goals on the team at one point.

They also scratched him for AJF a career minor leaguer who has passed through waivers multiple times in the playoffs and for another player, Gus, who had 7 points in 39 games this year and has 14 points in 113 career games. Of course that will make player wonder what the heck is going on.

Oh I agree about this year. I imagine he wasn't happy. Heck we don't need to imagine, Bones flat out said he wasn't happy. But that was Bones way of doing things with a young player. He is very tough love and old school. He did the same to those kids in Dallas. I think Scott is different and showed as much when he was running the bench. If Cole has a big year and is treated fairly this past year will be water under the bridge.

 

[tbcwpg]

In the absence of a McDavid or Mackinnon, I think it's tough to isolate a "most skilled or talented forward" on most teams. I think Ehlers is our best puck carrier up front. He skates extremely well with the puck and can change directions without losing speed

In terms of pure hands/scoring touch around the net, I'd give the nod to Connor or Vilardi. Shooting from a distance would maybe be Ehlers or Schief.

So he's up there for sure

As for the rest of it, Lowry outscores his opposition but would you say he's more valuable to the team than Schief?

As for analytics, I've said in the past that they are an objective observation that can go into decision making processes. I used line combinations as an example. But they can't be the only criteria. I've never discredited them directly, just conclusions that people have drawn from (in my opinion) overvaluing them or dismissing all other relevant factors

I trust Ehlers the most of any forward on this team to bring the puck into the zone with possession. I trust other forwards more once they're in the o-zone.

 

[Aries56]

Ehlers zone entry is top notch.

What drives me crazy is when he takes a shot that goes wide and it leaves the zone, stopping offensive pressure.

He's also prone to trying to wheel around the offensive zone and losing possession or taking a bad angle shot. Hockey is a momentum game and when you lose it, you stifle your teams energy.

I like him, but am ready for change. We need a consistent second line, it's been MIA too often.

 

[bumblebeeman]

So you're saying that when someone mentions Ehlers playoff performances and the OP changes it to "well, everyone else sucked" isn't a strawman? By definition, that's refuting the Ehlers criticism by inserting someone else's failures. Kinda fits the definition to a T

I think people get defensive when people post stuff like "Ehlers is the reason the Jets lost", because it is hyperbolic and untrue. Maybe somewhere someone posted "Ehlers had a subpar playoffs!", and someone got upset about that, but a lot of complaints about Ehlers seem pretty exaggerated, which just creates these arguments. Because claiming that Ehlers is the Jets biggest problem is something very easy to disagree with, since he is one of their best players, and literally was the best player on his line. Anyway, message boards aren't the best place to communicate well, with people responding to different people and missing stuff, but we're here anyways so

 

[tbcwpg]

So you're saying that when someone mentions Ehlers playoff performances and the OP changes it to "well, everyone else sucked" isn't a strawman? By definition, that's refuting the Ehlers criticism by inserting someone else's failures. Kinda fits the definition to a T

It's not technically a strawman by definition. It's a poor rebuttal, sure, I've been guilty too, but it's not a strawman.

 

[Daximus]

I think people get defensive when people post stuff like "Ehlers is the reason the Jets lost", because it is hyperbolic and untrue. Maybe somewhere someone posted "Ehlers had a subpar playoffs!", and someone got upset about that, but a lot of complaints about Ehlers seem pretty exaggerated, which just creates these arguments. Because claiming that Ehlers is the Jets biggest problem is something very easy to disagree with, since he is one of their best players, and literally was the best player on his line. Anyway, message boards aren't the best place to communicate well, with people responding to different people and missing stuff, but we're here anyways so

He's not the sole reason that we have lost playoff games but he has been a major factor. When you go from the numbers he produces in the regular season to what he produces in the post season it's a pretty jarring difference. He goes from elite to barely 4th line level and in some cases he's not even that. And this isn't something that has only happened once or twice. He's consistently not preforming when we need him to the most. Yeah it's a small sample size but that's playoff hockey. You have to win 16 games. We need him at his best in that small sample size and he is not delivering.

He goes from controlling the puck, being dangerous in transition and pushing the play to getting caved on possession, coughing up the puck and avoiding physicality at nearly any and all costs. This is the hallmark of a player who can't handle the physicality and high pressure of the playoffs.

Look at the 3 major players who are on the outs with their teams. Marner, Necas and Ehlers. All 3 players are accused of not delivering in the playoffs when it matters the most. Ehlers has by far the worst numbers of the 3 of them in the playoffs and it's not particularly close.

 

[drumzan]

Friedman said Buffalo’s 11th overall pick is available. He said they’re looking for a top-6 Forward. Ehlers?? He does have a 10 team no trade clause though.

 

[surixon]

Friedman said Buffalo’s 11th overall pick is available. He said they’re looking for a top-6 Forward. Ehlers?? He does have a 10 team no trade clause though.

Interesting. I might want one of their prospects like Savoie for him as he'd be closer to the NHL.

 

[Heldig]

Friedman said Buffalo’s 11th overall pick is available. He said they’re looking for a top-6 Forward. Ehlers?? He does have a 10 team no trade clause though.

I would want a bigger trade in this scenario. 11th OA pick is nice but wont help the Jets for a couple years. Ehlers is worth more.

Buffalo has a pretty solid set of wingers now: Peterka, Tuch, Quinn, Benson plus more in the pipeline, so it seems an odd fit unless Buffalo includes one of them in the deal.

 

[cbcwpg]

With one year left on his deal, and set to become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2025, the speedy Danish forward is reportedly not planning to re-sign with the franchise, according to The Fourth Period's David Pagnotta.

“The 28-year-old Dane is set to earn $6.75 million in actual salary in 2024-25, though his cap hit is $6 million. He owns a 10-team no-trade list and word out of Winnipeg is that while he has not requested a trade, he would welcome a move,” Pagnotta reported on Wednesday.

“According to a well-placed source close to the Jets, Ehlers is not interested in signing a contract extension with the club."

 

[Joe Hallenback]

I doubt Buffalo wants Ehlers they have a bunch of highly skilled wingers already. I think they would like a 2nd line shutdown type of center that can produce.

I would like in our own division like Utah for an Ehlers deal. Even something like Ehlers+Schmidt for whatever you are going to get which could just be a ton of assets

 

[gojetsgo]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1799051123753669085

wonder if they would be interested in ehlers if they can't retain guentzel

 

[Huffer]

It's impossible to know what the return will be for Ehlers at this point. Hockey trade for a D, futures?

One thing that could be interesting for the Jets though and something that's been talked about here for a long time is if they would decide to move away from a top 6, checking 3rd, and utility 4th line configuration.

For the most part, the wingers in the top 6 have been pretty similar. Connor, Vilardi, Ehlers, Perfetti. Connor and Ehlers have more speed, but all are what I think you would classify as "skilled" wingers.

Maybe after Ehlers is traded the team would look towards shaking that up? It seems like some of their next crop of wingers are already going to be a little different. McGroarty and Barlow seem like grittier types, and even Chibrikov has some edge.

Maybe moving towards a more balanced top 9 with some skill and grit on all 3 lines?

Connor - Scheifele - XX
Nino - YY - Vilardi
Barron - Lowry - Perfetti
Iafallo - Names - Appleton


Not sure who the XX and YY's could be though. In a perfect world, XX is like a right handed Tkachuk (obviously not finding that) type, and YY is a centre capable of 50+ points and solid 2 way play. Heck, a guy like a Danault or Cirelli who doesn't put up that much points might even be a good fit there if we're trying to bring a balanced approach.

Lambert is another option somewhere in there, and Iaffalo could possibly be moved for cap purposes as well if needed.

 

[Daximus]

Interesting. I might want one of their prospects like Savoie for him as he'd be closer to the NHL.

Having had the pleasure of watching Savoie in person for the last few months of WHL regular season and playoffs. I would absolutely love it if we could get him.

 

[surixon]

It's impossible to know what the return will be for Ehlers at this point. Hockey trade for a D, futures?

One thing that could be interesting for the Jets though and something that's been talked about here for a long time is if they would decide to move away from a top 6, checking 3rd, and utility 4th line configuration.

For the most part, the wingers in the top 6 have been pretty similar. Connor, Vilardi, Ehlers, Perfetti. Connor and Ehlers have more speed, but all are what I think you would classify as "skilled" wingers.

Maybe after Ehlers is traded the team would look towards shaking that up? It seems like some of their next crop of wingers are already going to be a little different. McGroarty and Barlow seem like grittier types, and even Chibrikov has some edge.

Maybe moving towards a more balanced top 9 with some skill and grit on all 3 lines?

Connor - Scheifele - XX
Nino - YY - Vilardi
Barron - Lowry - Perfetti
Iafallo - Names - Appleton


Not sure who the XX and YY's could be though. In a perfect world, XX is like a right handed Tkachuk (obviously not finding that) type, and YY is a centre capable of 50+ points and solid 2 way play. Heck, a guy like a Danault or Cirelli who doesn't put up that much points might even be a good fit there if we're trying to bring a balanced approach.

Lambert is another option somewhere in there, and Iaffalo could possibly be moved for cap purposes as well if needed.

I'm pro balanced lines but to me they need gritty players that can read the game offensively well enough to keep up. Nino is one such player but we'd need more of them to run such a system.

This isn't meant to slag Lowry but that is an area he isn't good enough and that to me is why we have deployed line 3 in the way we have. The offense that runs through that line is very simplistic and doesn't work well with more skilled players. We tried that a couple times over the years. We've tried Laine, Perfetti, Toffoli, and Ehlers at various times over the years with him and it just doesn't click.

I think at this point in his career I think the Jets have appropriately identified what works for him line wise.

I'd like to see more balance on the other three lines though.

Having had the pleasure of watching Savoie in person for the last few months of WHL regular season and playoffs. I would absolutely love it if we could get him.

He'd really fit that puck pursuit and tenacious type of game we seem to want to run. I loved watching him live for the Ice. He'd also add some more speed to our prospect pool and is a right shot. I think him and Cole would make a great combination for the future.

 

[Daximus]

So to sum things up it looks like Necas, Zegras, 10th overall and 11th overall are all being dangled.

Carolina is reportedly looking for one or two top prospects for Necas. So it seems unlikely that Ehlers is involved there.

Anaheim wants a veteran top 6 winger or veteran top 4 D for Zegras. An extended Ehlers definitely fits the bill there and it's a deal that can wait to July 1st.

Sabres are dangling 11th overall for a veteran top 6 forward. Seems they want to turn the page rather than continue stockpiling prospects. An extended Ehlers could fit the bill there but no talks can happen until July 1st and I think it's unlikely Ehlers accepts that trade or extends.

New Jersey is dangling 10th overall but actually looking for a starter so I think they are more gunning for someone like Saros than Ehlers with it.

He'd really fit that puck pursuit and tenacious type of game we seem to want to run. I loved watching him live for the Ice. He'd also add some more speed to our prospect pool and is a right shot. I think him and Cole would make a great combination for the future.

Yeah he'd be a great fit and another potential Center prospect that could push for a spot.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I place zero weight on playoff performance. With small sample sizes, you're going to get misleading results, which people can and will misinterpret to their detriment. Controversial? Sure. Do I care? Nope.

However, despite what I said above, there is one aspect of playoff hockey that is proven by the numbers and the eye test alike that could matter here. We know that Ehlers is among the best skaters in terms of drawing penalties with his speed, and since teams get away with more infractions in the postseason, Ehlers' play-driving can be interfered with more easily. And when you're the only one capable of skating the puck out of your own zone on your line, well... you've already mentioned what that could lead to.

The playoff sample sizes are absolutely abysmal and hence not worth mentioning here (91 ES minutes in the last three postseasons = jack shit), but since Ehlers' penalty differential is roughly in the top 30 in the entire league in the regular season, it should be a non-trivial issue. Whether this is fixed by getting rid of Ehlers outright is a question that many other posters seem to have an answer to. Based on how the series against the Avs went, I'd say that slower is not what we would have needed to be.

Saying that PO performance deserves "zero weight" is a bit extreme. But small sample sizes need to be taken with a grain of salt.

Ehlers' small sample of 37 games is made up of 6 separate even smaller samples. But ignoring his PO performance altogether is going too far, IMO.

Yes, slower is what we need.