Rumor: All Purpose Trade Proposals, Speculation and Rumours - 2023/24

[Flair Hay]

I know the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. And the stats and facts confirm Ehlers has struggled in the post season.

I can't help but feel like he is in the spot in his career so many players that struggle start to figure it out. He has all this experience where it hasn't translated, but people have the ability to learn from mistakes

Last year the discussion was on his inability to stay healthy. This year it is his playoff drop off.

If there is any way we can keep him, we may be getting his best playoff years ahead. If we can't, someone else may get to benefit from his learned experiences here. Maybe he continues to struggle his whole career.

None of us can know for sure. But I have that feeling this could turn around for him.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Can't see ehlers extending early with any new team. Both Guentzel and Tervainen are RFA, I can see them going hard after one of them and maybe a lesser 2LW replacement.

Necas wants to play center that probably doesn't happen here.

Why would that not happen here? Our clearest needs are 1RD and 2C.

 

[jamiebez]

Utah has no dmen signed and 3 RFAs. if the Jets want to move one of Pionk or Schmidt (not something i am predicting) they could be a team that might rather take on one of the contracts for solely 1 year, rather than multi-year deals in UFA for a not-so-good class

I was thinking the same thing about Utah. Schmidt in particular.

He was been through the relocation/new team process already with Vegas. That seems like an intangible that could really benefit Utah. Add to that the fact that he is such a PR-friendly guy with a terrific attitude. Seems like that could benefit a team that's in a new market.

Jets would need to retain, and probably not get much back, but it would beat a buyout.

 

[raideralex99]

I was thinking the same thing about Utah. Schmidt in particular.

He was been through the relocation/new team process already with Vegas. That seems like an intangible that could really benefit Utah. Add to that the fact that he is such a PR-friendly guy with a terrific attitude. Seems like that could benefit a team that's in a new market.

Jets would need to retain, and probably not get much back, but it would beat a buyout.

Utah has $51M with LTIR cap space ... Jets don't need to retain any of Schmidt or Pionk's contracts.
Also they have 3 unsigned RFA defensemen and zero signed defensemen so Chevy should be working the phones overtime with Armstrong maybe invite him to the cottage and do some fishing.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Ehlers has outscored Necas at even strength over the last three seasons, despite playing about 78% of Necas' minutes. He isn't even capable of replacing Nik's actual point production, and then he'd also be tasked with playing C (which he cannot do) and carrying the rest of the line on his back. Considering that we already have a losing first line, it kind of doesn't sound like a recipe for success.

Also: if Necas was a capable 2C, why has Carolina's offensive production been a total shitshow for the last couple of years? Their 5v5 scoring has been non-existent behind Aho, and Necas is among those responsible for it. You'd think that if he was a solution for us, Carolina would be looking to keep him - that is if some lunatic didn't offer them a clearly superior line driver in a trade, obviously.

Unfortunately, this reeks of the Trouba situation. A lot of posters hated his guts for wanting to leave, which is understandable enough, but the fact that those posters also claimed that he was replaceable was nonsense. Yes, our hands were forced, but we still don't have a replacement, nor are we anywhere close to having one in the system. The same goes for Ehlers: we have nothing to replace him with, we cannot get anything close to him in a trade, and none of the prospects are good enough to take on his responsibilities. If Ehlers just wants out, then there's little we can do, but if this is about us lowballing him, maybe it'd be time to accept the reality and pay the guy.

Very good points about Necas at 2C. Canes hole there appears to be even bigger than ours.

I'm lukewarm on Necas but we could do worse.

Necas and Zegras feel like the easier hockey trades and can be done post July 1st when Ehlers can negotiate an extension if he so chooses. I feel like hes more likely to sign with Carolina over Anaheim though.



Based on Troubas recent performance I dont think we are honestly that much worse off with Pionk. Necas also handily ourscores Ehlers in the playoffs and its not particularly close.

Once again overemphasizing 37 PO games while ignoring the context of those games.

Its been 5 seasons since Trouba left. Pionk has been bad or worse in 4 of those seasons. Trouba has been made captain of the Rangers. Pionk was very poor this season. How badly can Trouba possibly have played recently to justify that statement?

I don't think Ehlers has requested a trade tho, right? Or expressed any indication he doesn't want to stay in Winnipeg? Did I miss that?

I think re-signing him would be sweet. He is good to have as a best player on the 2nd line, tho the Jets were better when the winger opposite him was scoring 40 goals a year there. This might be crazy but it would be cool to see Lambert centering Perfetti and Ehlers there. It's risky, especially considering how streaky Ehlers can be, but if they click it could be nice. Not a very tough line, but speedy and Perfetti has the brains. It's not like Monahan is that good defensively anyways.

Ehlers doesn't need to request a trade. He simply needs to not sign an extension.
We don't have anything as concrete as a public request for a trade but there is a lot of smoke suggesting he would like a move, one way or another.

No one would like to keep Ehlers more than I would but I think that is a pipedream.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I mean we made the playoffs the year before last with Fly missing a good portion of the year. While a good player we should be able to absorb the loss depending on what we get back.

Yes, we should be able to absorb the loss. We have Perfetti and Lambert, among other possible solutions. But it will be a lot harder without Nik, depending on the return.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

-were going to get something back in an ehlers trade
-fix special teams
-perfetti takes another step and doesn't go into a massive slump
-vilardi takes another step and remains healthy

those things can easily offset an ehlers trade

Yes.
But you assume quite a bit. Can we, or will we, fix the STs? It is optimistic to expect Vilardi to remain healthy.

I expect at least a small step from Perfetti. I think his slump was more bad luck than anything else, until coaching decided to make it more difficult for him.

The return in trade will provide at least some compensation, maybe quite a lot.

I will miss Ehlers - a lot. Jets will be a lot less entertaining to watch, win or lose. They will also be easier for opponents to play against.

 

[gojetsgo]

Yes.
But you assume quite a bit. Can we, or will we, fix the STs? It is optimistic to expect Vilardi to remain healthy.

I expect at least a small step from Perfetti. I think his slump was more bad luck than anything else, until coaching decided to make it more difficult for him.

The return in trade will provide at least some compensation, maybe quite a lot.

I will miss Ehlers - a lot. Jets will be a lot less entertaining to watch, win or lose. They will also be easier for opponents to play against.

with how bad special teams were I think it's pretty likely that we will see them improved under new coaches

perfetti just matching what he did in the first half without a slump would be more then just a small step forward if he can improve on his first half then it would be even more

yes, it's optimistic to expect vilardi to remain healthy but the same thing can be said about ehlers, not like he was healthy this year despite playing every game

 

[Maukkis]

IF Necas proves to be what we need at 2C it is an upgrade (of sorts) because we have options at 2L(R)W. Just as Ehlers could play either wing, so can Perfetti. Perfetti is also a high calibre playmaker, though not the same style as Ehlers. There would be a loss of team speed.

I don't see a 2nd being included as a bonus getting "something back for Heinola". Just the opposite in fact. We don't need the pick and it costs us our best D prospect. Something that we can't afford to lose right now. We should not be the ones adding to get this done.

There is no reason to believe that Necas would be an effective 2C. I could understand that deal if we already had a reliable 2C capable of carrying his line, but you simply cannot take the risk without that solution in place. It needs to be remembered that since Connor-Scheifele is a proven fiasco of a pairing for the first line, whatever the second line is needs to dominate its match-ups for us to stay competitive.

I also agree that Carolina should add significantly to get Ehlers, but if we're dumb enough to take that downgrade, we probably aren't going to get full value for him anyway. As for Heinola, my position regarding him should be clear at this point.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

There is no reason to believe that Necas would be an effective 2C. I could understand that deal if we already had a reliable 2C able to carry his line, but you simply cannot take the risk without that solution in place. It needs to be remembered that since Connor-Scheifele is a proven fiasco of a pairing for the first line, whatever the second line is needs to dominate its match-ups for us to stay competitive.

I also agree that Carolina should add significantly to get Ehlers, but if we're dumb enough to take that downgrade, we probably aren't going to get full value for him anyway. As for Heinola, my position regarding him should be clear at this point.

Yes. I think you made the point about Necas at 2C very well in another post.

I went and took another look at their potential 2Cs after Necas. They really don't have any in their system at this point. If Necas can't make it there then he certainly can't be our solution at C either.

I still see Heinola on our 3rd pair next season, probably right side. How well he will perform there remains to be seen.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

with how bad special teams were I think it's pretty likely that we will see them improved under new coaches

perfetti just matching what he did in the first half without a slump would be more then just a small step forward if he can improve on his first half then it would be even more

yes, it's optimistic to expect vilardi to remain healthy but the same thing can be said about ehlers, not like he was healthy this year despite playing every game

I'm still skeptical of our STs. They have been bad for a long time, except for occasional flashes.

I'm fairly confident in seeing a better full season from Perfetti.

Ehlers has had injuries. What player hasn't? But Vilardi's injury history is much worse than avg. It is not one chronic thing, which some people take as a positive indicator. I don't see it that way. When it is just one thing after another I see it as a brittle player who will just keep getting injured. Those injuries have a cumulative effect that eventually affects the players ability to perform as well as limiting his number of games. Hope I'm wrong about him, but I expect the pattern to continue until it doesn't.

 

[Maukkis]

I mean we made the playoffs the year before last with Fly missing a good portion of the year. While a good player we should be able to absorb the loss depending on what we get back.

It might be appropriate to point out that we had 95 points that year. It's by no means comparable to what last year was.

Replacing Ehlers is impossible - that much should be clear, as he is unquestionably our best forward. However - if Arniel comes in and blows up the lineup we had last year, we could see a better first line and offset some of the loss that way. My hope remains that we see Nino in the top 6, with or without Nik - that could be one improvement. But if we keep on banging our heads against the Connor-Scheifele wall, it's going to be a brutal year without any good scoring lines.

 

[gojetsgo]

I'm still skeptical of our STs. They have been bad for a long time, except for occasional flashes.

I'm fairly confident in seeing a better full season from Perfetti.

Ehlers has had injuries. What player hasn't? But Vilardi's injury history is much worse than avg. It is not one chronic thing, which some people take as a positive indicator. I don't see it that way. When it is just one thing after another I see it as a brittle player who will just keep getting injured. Those injuries have a cumulative effect that eventually affects the players ability to perform as well as limiting his number of games. Hope I'm wrong about him, but I expect the pattern to continue until it doesn't.

past four years games played: ehlers 236 vilardi 228 and ehlers played 82 of those games hurt this year and some of the games vilardi missed were due to being a healthy scratch, so I don't see how you can claim ehlers is like other players that have gotten hurt but someone vilardi's injury history is much worse

 

[Eyeseeing]

I think the team is far better with Ehlers on it myself.

Yes, we should be able to absorb the loss. We have Perfetti and Lambert, among other possible solutions. But it will be a lot harder without Nik, depending on the return.

Perfetti, there's another guy I can see wanting a change of scenery as soon as it's available to him.

 

[Buffdog]

It might be appropriate to point out that we had 95 points that year. It's by no means comparable to what last year was.

Replacing Ehlers is impossible - that much should be clear, as he is unquestionably our best forward. However - if Arniel comes in and blows up the lineup we had last year, we could see a better first line and offset some of the loss that way. My hope remains that we see Nino in the top 6, with or without Nik - that could be one improvement. But if we keep on banging our heads against the Connor-Scheifele wall, it's going to be a brutal year without any good scoring lines.

Maybe walk that back a bit, because I certainly question it. Again, I'm assuming you're going off of xG%, because that's the only stat that backs up what you say.

Maybe this is where the "you hate advanced stats and you hate Ehlers" shit comes from. Neither is true.. what I hate is this kind of conclusion being drawn from one metric that in and of itself is highly flawed

Is Ehlers a great player? Yes

Are advanced stats a useful tool? Yes

Is Ehlers "unquestionably our best forward" based soley on advanced stats? No

For example, Schief plays a more important and more difficult position vs better opposition and he outscores Ehlers in terms of actual points. Of course this is where the old "P/60" and "5v5" comments will pop up like clockwork... but at the end of the day, games aren't only played at 5v5 and unfortunately, they only count the goals you score (not the ones you could have scored with more ice time)

So if given the choice between keeping Schief or Ehlers, it's Schief 100 times out of 100 for me. Same said for Lowry, and maybe Connor

 

[surixon]

It might be appropriate to point out that we had 95 points that year. It's by no means comparable to what last year was.

Replacing Ehlers is impossible - that much should be clear, as he is unquestionably our best forward. However - if Arniel comes in and blows up the lineup we had last year, we could see a better first line and offset some of the loss that way. My hope remains that we see Nino in the top 6, with or without Nik - that could be one improvement. But if we keep on banging our heads against the Connor-Scheifele wall, it's going to be a brutal year without any good scoring lines.

Nothing is impossible. We aren't talking about McDavid here. But yes Arniel is going to have to convince KC and Mark that both individually and collectively as a team we are better off with them on separate lines.

 

[Maukkis]

Nothing is impossible. We aren't talking about McDavid here. But yes Arniel is going to have to convince KC and Mark that both individually and collectively as a team we are better off with them on separate lines.

Nothing says possible like a coach having to convince players to accept his roster decisions.

I tried to think of players who have, in one way or another, been linked to trades in recent times, and the only semi-plausible replacement for Ehlers that I could think of was Brady Tkachuk, and even that's quite a stretch in terms of plausibility. In terms of point production, 95% of the players close to Ehlers are totally unavailable. It's a struggle to come up with anything for this.

 

[Daximus]

Necas is terrible at C. CAR has tried this experiment.

True but you never know. Hes got as good a shot as anyone else currently does.

 

[Dale53130]

Once again overemphasizing 37 PO games while ignoring the context of those games.

They will also be easier for opponents to play against.

We're easier to play against in the playoffs, because there are obvious traits of Ehler's game that work against him (and his linemates) that have been identified by our opponents. He (and his lines) have been easily nullified since 2018. If he gets over-credited for what he brings to the table - zone entries and being an elite line driver - then he should be even more scrutinized by those that sing his praises once he gets to the playoffs.

I don't believe that he stops trying the moment the playoffs start either. What he's allowed to do in the regular season, will (likely) never work in the playoffs.

I'm a canary in a cole mine on this one, but he's our most predictable forward to gameplan against.

That's the context that you're not wanting to look at.

Marcel Dionne only played 12 more career playoff games than Ehlers, and his All-Time ranking has him dropping a tonne because of it. Ehlers is not above what's to be expected of him come playoff time, and he's nowhere near the player that Dionne was.

 

[Nickel eye Heel hers]

-were going to get something back in an ehlers trade
-fix special teams
-perfetti takes another step and doesn't go into a massive slump
-vilardi takes another step and remains healthy

those things can easily offset an ehlers trade

A lot of things have to go right to offset the difference.
I hope if a trade happens, those things you believe materialize, or it could turn into a long season.

 

[gojetsgo]

Perfetti, there's another guy I can see wanting a change of scenery as soon as it's available to him.

lol... come on, he is not the 1st nor will be the last young player to have his minutes cut or be scratched, if he has a year like his 1st half without the slump he will remain in the top 6

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

We're easier to play against in the playoffs, because there are obvious traits of Ehler's game that work against him (and his linemates) that have been identified by our opponents. He (and his lines) have been easily nullified since 2018. If he gets over-credited for what he brings to the table - zone entries and being an elite line driver - then he should be even more scrutinized by those that sing his praises once he gets to the playoffs.

I don't believe that he stops trying the moment the playoffs start either. What he's allowed to do in the regular season, will (likely) never work in the playoffs.

I'm a canary in a cole mine on this one, but he's our most predictable forward to gameplan against.

That's the context that you're not wanting to look at.

Marcel Dionne only played 12 more career playoff games than Ehlers, and his All-Time ranking has him dropping a tonne because of it. Ehlers is not above what's to be expected of him come playoff time, and he's nowhere near the player that Dionne was.

He is unpredictable, that's why some, like Scheifele, don't like playing with him.

The context you are not wanting to look at is the team that he is a part of in the PO, and his usage. It is like all these people emphasizing Ehlers' PO performance think that he is the whole reason Jets lose 4 straight games. He is part of that bad PO team and has to wear that. But that also means that he isn't getting any help. Like other Jets in the PO, he is being setup to fail - and he does. Hockey is a team game and Jets fail in the PO as a team.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think the team is far better with Ehlers on it myself.


Perfetti, there's another guy I can see wanting a change of scenery as soon as it's available to him.

Could get to that with another season like the last one. But I hope things change for him next year.

He was quoted at the time he was drafted as saying something like he would be happy with whatever systems Jets wanted him to play ...... as long as he was still allowed to be creative within that system. I don't have a link to the quote but I remember it pretty clearly. It was almost immediately after the draft, like his first interview afterward or his first with Winnipeg media.

 

[surixon]

Could get to that with another season like the last one. But I hope things change for him next year.

He was quoted at the time he was drafted as saying something like he would be happy with whatever systems Jets wanted him to play ...... as long as he was still allowed to be creative within that system. I don't have a link to the quote but I remember it pretty clearly. It was almost immediately after the draft, like his first interview afterward or his first with Winnipeg media.

He also played the system and had success doing it. Honestly I don't think there is going to be an issue with Cole unless he keeps crap usage.

I think the team is far better with Ehlers on it myself.


Perfetti, there's another guy I can see wanting a change of scenery as soon as it's available to him.

Well the org has 5 years of control to show him he can succeed here. I'm not overly concerned, I expect he'll get into the in crowd as soon as next year and won't look back.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

past four years games played: ehlers 236 vilardi 228 and ehlers played 82 of those games hurt this year and some of the games vilardi missed were due to being a healthy scratch, so I don't see how you can claim ehlers is like other players that have gotten hurt but someone vilardi's injury history is much worse

'22 & '23 were Ehlers' worst years for missing games. He has 3 82 game seasons in the NHL. '23 was Vilardi's highest games played. Look back further at his missed games. HockeyDB follows him back to 2016. He doesn't have a single complete season in that time. It is every single year with him.

I sincerely hope that turns around for him. But it hasn't yet.

It might be appropriate to point out that we had 95 points that year. It's by no means comparable to what last year was.

Replacing Ehlers is impossible - that much should be clear, as he is unquestionably our best forward. However - if Arniel comes in and blows up the lineup we had last year, we could see a better first line and offset some of the loss that way. My hope remains that we see Nino in the top 6, with or without Nik - that could be one improvement. But if we keep on banging our heads against the Connor-Scheifele wall, it's going to be a brutal year without any good scoring lines.

Hope you are wrong, but I'm afraid you are right.