Rumor: All Purpose Trade Proposals, Speculation and Rumours - 2023/24

[tbcwpg]

in reference to Holtz vs Askarov as prospects or in reference to market value of Hellebuyck in a trade?

In respect to both the reluctance of teams to give Hellebuyck and goalies in general (maybe the Florida/Tampa guys excluded) bigger money deals and especially the trade return that goalies usually bring in respective to their impact and performance.

you'll have to explain this methinks

The easier one is the trade value - goalies rarely bring in what they bring to a team, yet when we look at trades for a forward or defenceman, teams seem to pay more for those players who ultimately have less impact on a game to game basis.

The contract thing - probably better it was deleted as I'm looking up some more examples to try to replicate it and I'm finding more exceptions to my hypothesis than I'd like

 

[macmaroon]

Fie, upon't I am undone. Thine proferred comment is worse than 10 in the 100 than that which is sought. In thine awkward silence cast in the staring truth of thy comment, one might make free with another boar's head stuff'd in thy firkin.

Fie, away with thee to thine nunnery - we'll have naught of thine egregious truths spouted anon.

hark tho at the gentille zephyr of the aud abyss; attend not the nunnery, lest I be thought a strange fellow or wrong'un.

(just signed up for my remedial Shakespearean english class)

Is there a Coles Notes version of this conversation...

 

[Potrzebie]

I prefer the Bawd to the Bard.

There once was a girl from Nantucket...

p.s. Gil, your new avatar is creepy. It just stares at me all day long. Make it stop.

I know what the guy from Nantucket could do but what can the girl do??

 

[DRW204]

In respect to both the reluctance of teams to give Hellebuyck and goalies in general (maybe the Florida/Tampa guys excluded) bigger money deals and especially the trade return that goalies usually bring in respective to their impact and performance.



The easier one is the trade value - goalies rarely bring in what they bring to a team, yet when we look at trades for a forward or defenceman, teams seem to pay more for those players who ultimately have less impact on a game to game basis.

The contract thing - probably better it was deleted as I'm looking up some more examples to try to replicate it and I'm finding more exceptions to my hypothesis than I'd like

sorry i was specifying impact on the game. i agree, their trade values are often not as much for some reason, when i think they have the highest impact on the game both positive and negative. hence the often used phrases goalies are voodoo or volatile.

 

[tbcwpg]

sorry i was specifying impact on the game. i agree, their trade values are often not as much for some reason, when i think they have the highest impact on the game both positive and negative. hence the often used phrases goalies are voodoo or volatile.

I mean more of an analytics type of analysis. For example, Filip Gustavsson has just come off a year where he's stopped 31 and some change goals above expected and he's projecting to get $4-4.5m a year, when he's worth probably 4 wins on his play alone? Meanwhile Dubois is a similar age, just got $8.5m aav for 8 years and his overall impact on his team's results is worth maybe 2.5 wins. Dubois has a longer resume, sure, but there are other examples of players coming off the ELC on big money deals while there's more trepidation with goaltenders.

As I alluded to, we are seeing goalies get a bit more money. Sorokin just got a big deal, Hill got almost $5m.

When it comes to trade values though, I don't think it's caught up. We'll see what Hellebuyck or Ullmark/Swayman return, but I don't think it'll be to the level of a Dubois return when their impact this year has largely been far more impactful.

 

[Jetsfan79]

Yeah for the most part, goalies do not get hauls with ellite talent. My thought bubble went " umm not so fast" when I heard local pundits just assuming Helle would surely fetch a strong return. He might. But not a given. It's the nature of the position .They kinda existi in a vacuum and are separate from the rest of the team. . If a forward or D has challenges, you can do things like change usage or shift positions. Not as easy for a goalie . Ellite goalies can go cold, backups can get hot for a whole season. It's an " all the eggs in the same basket" position . For Helle to fetch a good return you need a GM who really believes in him, is desperatel or willing to burn assests if the risk backfires.

 

[DRW204]

I mean more of an analytics type of analysis. For example, Filip Gustavsson has just come off a year where he's stopped 31 and some change goals above expected and he's projecting to get $4-4.5m a year, when he's worth probably 4 wins on his play alone? Meanwhile Dubois is a similar age, just got $8.5m aav for 8 years and his overall impact on his team's results is worth maybe 2.5 wins. Dubois has a longer resume, sure, but there are other examples of players coming off the ELC on big money deals while there's more trepidation with goaltenders.

As I alluded to, we are seeing goalies get a bit more money. Sorokin just got a big deal, Hill got almost $5m.

When it comes to trade values though, I don't think it's caught up. We'll see what Hellebuyck or Ullmark/Swayman return, but I don't think it'll be to the level of a Dubois return when their impact this year has largely been far more impactful.

i think that speaks to the volatility. putting in 8-10M dollars in goaltending when they can go super cold, while cheap nobodies are now making cup appearances.

this was the top-10 of Goals-saved-above-expected this year vs last 2 (via Moneypuck all-situations)

It's Helle, Sorokin, Shesterkin, Vas, Saros and whole lotta moving parts

22-23	22-21	20-21
Saros	Shesterkin	Helle
Ullmark	Vas	Vas
Sorokin	Andersen	Fleury
Helle	Bob	Smith
Shesterkin	Kuemper	Saros
Vas	Saros	Nedelkovic
Gustavsson	Quick	Campbell
Swayman	Helle	Mrazek
Georgiev	Husso	Demko
Samsonov	Sorokin	Swayman

 

[tbcwpg]

i think that speaks to the volatility. putting in 8-10M dollars in goaltending when they can go super cold, while cheap nobodies are now making cup appearances.

Sure, I think that's a reasonable explanation, but I think as it relates to the Hellebuyck discussion, this volatility means he won't get the value that some are expecting on here in a trade.

 

[DRW204]

Sure, I think that's a reasonable explanation, but I think as it relates to the Hellebuyck discussion, this volatility means he won't get the value that some are expecting on here in a trade.

yeah i don't disagree. however, helle is one of the few goalies who has been a consistent performer over the years. i don't think he will have an enormous return in a trade though, like the talks of Mercer, Nemec or Power imo are far fetched. but we'll see (if he is dealt)

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Wonder if we can move one of D to Chicago. They look like they need one to start the year with and they have lots of picks to send us something back

 

[Adam da bomb]

Wonder if we can move one of D to Chicago. They look like they need one to start the year with and they have lots of picks to send us something back

Sure. They can have Stanley and Heinola one of each.

 

[Huffer]

Sure. They can have Stanley and Heinola one of each.

The better play IMO is to move one of our D with cap.

 

[ghyrti]

yeah i don't disagree. however, helle is one of the few goalies who has been a consistent performer over the years. i don't think he will have an enormous return in a trade though, like the talks of Mercer, Nemec or Power imo are far fetched. but we'll see (if he is dealt)

Depends on if the GM thinks Helle is enough of an upgrade on Vanacek in 23/24 that it gives them the best chance to win a cup this season. If if Mercer is the ask from Winnipeg and I'm Jersey, I'd be asking for Helle and Scheifele both 50% retained for Mercer and Vanacek as the primary pieces in a hockey trade. Still gives them enough room that they could offer Kane or Tarasenko a couple million plus incentives and who beats them in the east with that lineup?

 

[Huffer]

Depends on if the GM thinks Helle is enough of an upgrade on Vanacek in 23/24 that it gives them the best chance to win a cup this season. If if Mercer is the ask from Winnipeg and I'm Jersey, I'd be asking for Helle and Scheifele both 50% retained for Mercer and Vanacek as the primary pieces in a hockey trade. Still gives them enough room that they could offer Kane or Tarasenko a couple million plus incentives and who beats them in the east with that lineup?

That becomes a bad deal for us then at that point.

 

[None]

We lost Eyssimont to waivers for Kuhlman.

Just to beat the dead horse again.

Edit: Smaller image

 

[DRW204]

We lost Eyssimont to waivers for Kuhlman.

Just to beat the dead horse again.

Edit: Smaller image

will be interesting to see how eyssimont fairs this year for sure.

to me he slides in nicely for what ross colton was for TBL. i think he can be a 30 pt ~12ish mins a night fwd w/ bite for them.

 

[jetsv2]

We lost Eyssimont to waivers for Kuhlman.

Just to beat the dead horse again.

People really need to get past this, the guy is a 4th liner at best and is not something to get worked up about. What the hell is with Jets fans and getting overly attached to guys who can barely hold down an NHL roster spot.

The way some fans are refusing to let go would make you think the Jets lost a 40 goal scorer on waivers or something.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

We lost Eyssimont to waivers for Kuhlman.

Just to beat the dead horse again.

Edit: Smaller image

And now both are with Stanley Cup winning organizations. Shameful.

 

[None]

People really need to get past this, the guy is a 4th liner at best and is not something to get worked up about. What the hell is with Jets fans and getting overly attached to guys who can barely hold down an NHL roster spot.

The way some fans are refusing to let go would make you think the Jets lost a 40 goal scorer on waivers or something.

Better metrics than our entire bottom 6 and some of our top 6 while playing on a cup contender but somehow not good enough for the Jets

 

[jetsv2]

Better metrics than our entire bottom 6 and some of our top 6 while playing on a cup contender but somehow not good enough for the Jets

He played 15 regular season and 3 playoff games for Tampa, talk about a tiny sample size. He also had 2 points in those regular season games in Tampa and 2 more in the playoffs. 4 points in 18 games is pretty average production for a 4th line player.

He is a 4th liner, not something worth crying about losing.

Jets fans have a history of hyping the shit out of 4th liners going back to the days of spencer machacek and it's sad.

 

[Jetabre]

He played 15 regular season and 3 playoff games for Tampa, talk about a tiny sample size. He also had 2 points in those regular season games in Tampa and 2 more in the playoffs. 4 points in 18 games is pretty average production for a 4th line player.

He is a 4th liner, not something worth crying about losing.

Jets fans have a history of hyping the shit out of 4th liners going back to the days of spencer machacek and it's sad.

Yeah he's no Lee Stempniak..Now there was a real tragedy

 

[None]

He played 15 regular season and 3 playoff games for Tampa, talk about a tiny sample size. He also had 2 points in those regular season games in Tampa and 2 more in the playoffs. 4 points in 18 games is pretty average production for a 4th line player.

He played 54 regular season games spread between San Jose, Tampa, and Winnipeg and he performed well everywhere he went. He outscored the following Jets forwards on a per minute basis 5 on 5:
Dominic Toninato
Adam Lowry
Mason Appleton
Jansen Harkins
Sam Gagner
Morgan Barron
Saku Maenalanen
Kevin Stenlund
Karson Kuhlman
David Gustafsson

His shot metrics put him more in line with Alex Iafallo or Nino Niederreiter than the likes of Karson Kuhlman.

 

[jetsv2]

He played 54 regular season games spread between San Jose, Tampa, and Winnipeg and he performed well everywhere he went. He outscored the following Jets forwards on a per minute basis 5 on 5:
Dominic Toninato
Adam Lowry
Mason Appleton
Jansen Harkins
Sam Gagner
Morgan Barron
Saku Maenalanen
Kevin Stenlund
Karson Kuhlman
David Gustafsson

His shot metrics put him more in line with Alex Iafallo or Nino Niederreiter than the likes of Karson Kuhlman.

Now you have moved past silly. He has played 54 NHL games and you are comparing him to Iafallo and Niederreiter.

54 games is still a tiny sample size and the fact that you are making such silly comparisons proves what I said about Jets fans hyping the shit out of 4th liners.

The guy has 15 career points, time to take a step back and realize how silly those comparisons are.

 

[BoneDocUK]

He played 15 regular season and 3 playoff games for Tampa, talk about a tiny sample size. He also had 2 points in those regular season games in Tampa and 2 more in the playoffs. 4 points in 18 games is pretty average production for a 4th line player.

He is a 4th liner, not something worth crying about losing.

Jets fans have a history of hyping the shit out of 4th liners going back to the days of spencer machacek and it's sad.

I guess I wish we had a 4th line worth hyping.

We've had what, maybe one of those since the Jets came back?

By this point I'm starting to wonder if our enduringly ineffective bottom 3/ bottom 6 is a player thing, an org philosophy thing, or some combo of the two

 

[None]

Now you have moved past silly. He has played 54 NHL games and you are comparing him to Iafallo and Niederreiter.

54 games is still a tiny sample size and the fact that you are making such silly comparisons proves what I said about Jets fans hyping the shit out of 4th liners.

The guy has 15 career points, time to take a step back and realize how silly those comparisons are.

Yes, an actual 3rd liner in Eyssimont is closer to being a 2nd/3rd line tweener like Iafallo or Niedderreiter than a replacement level player in Karson Kuhlman or a player who shouldn't have even had a sniff at the NHL last year in Saku Maenalanen. Shocking.