Rumor: All Purpose Trade Proposals, Speculation and Rumours - 2023/24

[10Ducky10]

More points (or less) per 60 is actual points scored on the ice. It is not some mathematical thing that only happens on paper.

The fact of the matter is, they have scored the same amount of points. Connor has done it in 16 fewer games.
That's all I need to know. Thank you very much.

 

[FlappyGiraffe]

Connor and Ehlers are both Winnipeg Jets and very good players. I haven't heard a peep from either of them complaining about usage - lets get back to some trade talk here.

I kind of like the idea of bringing in an extra Dman still to push Schmidt into being #7. We're very likely to get some injuries there and Schmidt can easily get plugged right back into any pairing. Would allow us to avoid trying to shelter a cold stan during a playoff series.

 

[DRW204]

Connor and Ehlers are both Winnipeg Jets and very good players. I haven't heard a peep from either of them complaining about usage - lets get back to some trade talk here.

I kind of like the idea of bringing in an extra Dman still to push Schmidt into being #7. We're very likely to get some injuries there and Schmidt can easily get plugged right back into any pairing. Would allow us to avoid trying to shelter a cold stan during a playoff series.

Schmidt has been good in his role on the team. Him and Samberg rate as one of the best third pairs in the league. Whys there's no discussion on Pionk who has been trending down since the start of the year

 

[Heldig]

Oliver and Nik look super dangerous together, when I have seen them. I am danish so obviously love the idea, he is also great on the rush

Danish as in living in Denmark?

 

[gojetsgo]

 

[Flair Hay]

The fact of the matter is, they have scored the same amount of points. Connor has done it in 16 fewer games.
That's all I need to know. Thank you very much.

I think the truth is somewhere in the middle.

Obviously Nik missed lots of time to injuries over the last few years. So in that sense it is very justified to hold points overall in high regard and not just rely on rate stats. Availability matters a lot.

Ehlers is consistently our highest scoring 5v5 forward in the ice time he gets. That has continued from past years as he stayed healthy this year.

Connor is better on the PP by a mile this year. So bumping Ehlers to PP2 makes sense. He has had success there in the past.

And dropping Connor to 2nd/3rd line and promoting Ehlers could have a really positive impact overall. When they swapped ice time 5v5, the 1st line scores more and gives up less chances. In real goals and in the other stats.

We have both guys and they're both great. Question is, how can we use both of them in the best way?

 

[Flair Hay]

Schmidt has been good in his role on the team. Him and Samberg rate as one of the best third pairs in the league. Whys there's no discussion on Pionk who has been trending down since the start of the year

Probably because of the clear hierarchy Bones has established. Schmidt always the one to come out first.

Why that is, fair question to ask. The further we get away from the starts of their season, the more and more it looks like Schmidt may actually be the better player. As you alluded to...

 

[gojetsgo]

I think the truth is somewhere in the middle.

Obviously Nik missed lots of time to injuries over the last few years. So in that sense it is very justified to hold points overall in high regard and not just rely on rate stats. Availability matters a lot.

Ehlers is consistently our highest scoring 5v5 forward in the ice time he gets. That has continued from past years as he stayed healthy this year.

Connor is better on the PP by a mile this year. So bumping Ehlers to PP2 makes sense. He has had success there in the past.

And dropping Connor to 2nd/3rd line and promoting Ehlers could have a really positive impact overall. When they swapped ice time 5v5, the 1st line scores more and gives up less chances. In real goals and in the other stats.

We have both guys and they're both great. Question is, how can we use both of them in the best way?

We should probably experiment and give different combinations a few games to see which have the most chemistry

 

[gojetsgo]

 

[NikoEhlers]

Danish as in living in Denmark?

Yes per the moment. Judging by your name and the runes, i take it you have some connection to DK

 

[Mad Dog Tannen]

Yes per the moment. Judging by your name and the runes, i take it you have some connection to DK

Did they just become best friends? Yup!

Bro date to drink Akvavit and dip fries in mayonnaise incoming!

Don’t get too hammered on mjod after we trade for Oliver guys!

 

[Thechozen1]

Would be a really solid addition and cost should be reasonable.

 

[lanky]

Preds are tied for a wildcard spot. They're not going to be sellers.

 

[NikoEhlers]

Did they just become best friends? Yup!

View attachment 824177

Bro date to drink Akvavit and dip fries in mayonnaise incoming!

View attachment 824178

Don’t get too hammered on mjod after we trade for Oliver guys!

We will be planning to invade England again, soon

 

[WolfHouse]

Preds are tied for a wildcard spot. They're not going to be sellers.

We did say that just before we got nino

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The fact of the matter is, they have scored the same amount of points. Connor has done it in 16 fewer games.
That's all I need to know. Thank you very much.

pts per game is such a flawed way of looking at it. Why do you resist the very straightforward concept of looking at those same numbers on a per minute played basis? It is no kind of massaging of the data. None at all.

You don't look strictly at pts per season. That obviously doesn't make sense when 1 player might have 50 games and the other has 82. You might bring it up in the context of durability. But otherwise you look at ppg. The same logic applies to looking at pts per minute.

 

[Whileee]

I generally believe that there are no "untouchable" players, but I also think that GMs can and do make big mistakes if they trade top players based on mistaken value assessments, which are often based on how coaches use players.

In that context, I think the Jets should be very careful about considering an Ehlers trade. Right now, he has a coach that has had a hard time figuring how best to fit him in a somewhat dysfunctional top-6. In addition, Ehlers has clearly had some injury issues over the past couple of seasons, that might be limiting his ability to play at his top level consistently right now. So, trading him now would be "selling low", and before Bowness has fully explored how best to use Ehlers.

A few key points:

1) Whenever Ehlers plays with Scheifele, they dominate opponents in shot metrics and goal differentials. That's undeniable, and it holds regardless of who the other winger is and whether Ehlers is on RW or LW. That means that Bowness has an automatic top-line combination that has been reliably effective, in case his other top-line combinations are ineffective or have injuries (Ehlers stepped in for Connor with great results).

2) Ehlers has been more inconsistent in his level of play since his injuries last season and this season. That has resulted in variable results for the Jets' "second" line, which has consistently featured Perfetti, who has also had a recent dip in his productivity and performance (perhaps related to fatigue). That means that Bowness has understandable concerns about an Ehlers-Perfetti combo, regardless of the C (Monahan or Namestnikov). In the overall scheme of things, I'm not sure if an Ehlers-Perfetti combo works with Monahan, because none of them are strong forecheckers and two of them play a deliberate style. So, it might be more about style than performance (remembering how Ehlers-Hayes-Laine didn't work very well, either).

3) Bowness has options to try to optimize Ehlers' role on a 2nd line, but hasn't tried them out. Bowness might have a tailor-made LW for Ehlers in Niederreiter, but he places more value on the Lowry line than the other secondary line, so he has resisted making a switch there. With Bowness fixed on the Lowry and Scheifele lines for now, that means that the Perfetti-Ehlers combination is set, unless one is demoted to the 4th line.

4) The Jets have options that they haven't tried. I think that Morgan Barron has been underutilized at 5v5. He's 5th among Jets in goals/60, and plays fast with a big body. In some ways, he's a lesser version of Niederreiter. I think Barron would be a candidate to move up to LW with Monahan and Ehlers to provide that line with more speed and size. Perfetti-Namestnikov-Iafallo has been a very effective line, and would be a very good 4th line. That would be good as the Jets go into a very dense part of their schedule, and will need to find ways to reduce the load on the top-9.

5) If the Jets add, then it would be best to augment Ehlers, not replace him. As noted above, Ehlers can be a dynamic "cheat code" in the middle-6 if the Jets can put together a good line combo. He can also move up to the top line with or without Connor, and achieve good success. I think the Jets should look for internal or external options to complement Ehlers and Monahan. Internal options could include Barron, Niederreiter or maybe McGroarty. As the Jets head into the playoffs, I don't mind Perfetti going to the 4th line, as the Jets did with Perreault (and Little) during their 2017/18 run. He's young, and he can still get extra minutes on PP2.

 

[BoneDocUK]

I generally believe that there are no "untouchable" players, but I also think that GMs can and do make big mistakes if they trade top players based on mistaken value assessments, which are often based on how coaches use players.

In that context, I think the Jets should be very careful about considering an Ehlers trade. Right now, he has a coach that has had a hard time figuring how best to fit him in a somewhat dysfunctional top-6. In addition, Ehlers has clearly had some injury issues over the past couple of seasons, that might be limiting his ability to play at his top level consistently right now. So, trading him now would be "selling low", and before Bowness has fully explored how best to use Ehlers.

A few key points:

1) Whenever Ehlers plays with Scheifele, they dominate opponents in shot metrics and goal differentials. That's undeniable, and it holds regardless of who the other winger is and whether Ehlers is on RW or LW. That means that Bowness has an automatic top-line combination that has been reliably effective, in case his other top-line combinations are ineffective or have injuries (Ehlers stepped in for Connor with great results).

2) Ehlers has been more inconsistent in his level of play since his injuries last season and this season. That has resulted in variable results for the Jets' "second" line, which has consistently featured Perfetti, who has also had a recent dip in his productivity and performance (perhaps related to fatigue). That means that Bowness has understandable concerns about an Ehlers-Perfetti combo, regardless of the C (Monahan or Namestnikov). In the overall scheme of things, I'm not sure if an Ehlers-Perfetti combo works with Monahan, because none of them are strong forecheckers and two of them play a deliberate style. So, it might be more about style than performance (remembering how Ehlers-Hayes-Laine didn't work very well, either).

3) Bowness has options to try to optimize Ehlers' role on a 2nd line, but hasn't tried them out. Bowness might have a tailor-made LW for Ehlers in Niederreiter, but he places more value on the Lowry line than the other secondary line, so he has resisted making a switch there. With Bowness fixed on the Lowry and Scheifele lines for now, that means that the Perfetti-Ehlers combination is set, unless one is demoted to the 4th line.

4) The Jets have options that they haven't tried. I think that Morgan Barron has been underutilized at 5v5. He's 5th among Jets in goals/60, and plays fast with a big body. In some ways, he's a lesser version of Niederreiter. I think Barron would be a candidate to move up to LW with Monahan and Ehlers to provide that line with more speed and size. Perfetti-Namestnikov-Iafallo has been a very effective line, and would be a very good 4th line. That would be good as the Jets go into a very dense part of their schedule, and will need to find ways to reduce the load on the top-9.

5) If the Jets add, then it would be best to augment Ehlers, not replace him. As noted above, Ehlers can be a dynamic "cheat code" in the middle-6 if the Jets can put together a good line combo. He can also move up to the top line with or without Connor, and achieve good success. I think the Jets should look for internal or external options to complement Ehlers and Monahan. Internal options could include Barron, Niederreiter or maybe McGroarty. As the Jets head into the playoffs, I don't mind Perfetti going to the 4th line, as the Jets did with Perreault (and Little) during their 2017/18 run. He's young, and he can still get extra minutes on PP2.

Great post, lots to mull over, analysis and suggestions should be an automatic read for the coaching staff.

But who on this coaching staff would read it? Arniel might, based on interviews and some of his decisions. Bowness might not -- he is a D-first guy except when it comes to his first line, seemingly -- and his Jets seem to live or die with that third line, which is beginning to seem eerily reminiscent of the PM line combos, perhaps minus the emphasis on D responsibility. So we seem to have moved on from 4 balanced-ish lines to:

- First line goes out to score
- Second line goes out to break even/ not be scored on
- Third line takes tough matchups
- Fourth line goes out to break even / not be scored on, buy some time for lines 1 and 3 to rest up

I don't often get to watch the Jets in real time these days, but when I do I view Kevin Sawzall as a sort of proxy for Jets management. His talking points from the last game I watched focused on:

- Monahan, Monahan, Monahan
- Faceoffs matter / big bodies / netfront presence
- Deference to seasoned vets and their mastery of "the details"
- First line can mindread (each other), great hands in close (Villardi -- no argument there) seeing-eye passing, shooter's mentality (Connor)
- Second line = Monahan, Monahan, Monahan -- we get it, Kev.
- Lowry line one of the best in the league
- Fourth line out there "holding the line"
- Importance of winning coach's trust (see: Monahan, Lowry, 55, JMo, DD and even Samberg -- and that's it)

This sounds a whole lot like status quo to me.

There's the possibility to discover or return to combos that actually optimize the team's talent. Barron can skate, puckhound and shoot -- why can't he get a sniff on the 2nd line with Ehlers/ SeanMon? Would Cole complain if he were playing the same minutes on a quicker, more offence-oriented 4th? Why break up a very successful Schmidt/ Samberg combo to shoehorn Stanley in without sitting Pionk after another horror game?

All coaches have blind spots. We have a decent handle on Bowness's by now. Hopefully with a PO spot secured and with a strong backup we can see a few changes down the stretch to find the best, not the usual, lines for a deep run.

 

[10Ducky10]

pts per game is such a flawed way of looking at it. Why do you resist the very straightforward concept of looking at those same numbers on a per minute played basis? It is no kind of massaging of the data. None at all.

You don't look strictly at pts per season. That obviously doesn't make sense when 1 player might have 50 games and the other has 82. You might bring it up in the context of durability. But otherwise you look at ppg. The same logic applies to looking at pts per minute.

Are you going to tell me every coach should have played him more than KFC too?
Ever think there might be a reason why KFC gets more ice time?

 

[DRW204]

Iafallo is always the player that's moved up. Although I wasn't super impressed with Barron in the top 6 last year willing to give it a shot over Iafallo. I think Lowry is calling for nino to stay with him.

 

[Maukkis]

Iafallo is always the player that's moved up. Although I wasn't super impressed with Barron in the top 6 last year willing to give it a shot over Iafallo. I think Lowry is calling for nino to stay with him.

If I was Lowry, I too would be interested in having Nino carry the line. Not much suggests that Lowry deserves any 5v5 minutes above the fourth line level at this point, so Nino will mask some of the offensive woes.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Are you going to tell me every coach should have played him more than KFC too?
Ever think there might be a reason why KFC gets more ice time?

How does that address my question?

The fact of the matter is, they have scored the same amount of points. Connor has done it in 16 fewer games.
That's all I need to know. Thank you very much.

Why will you point out that Connor has done it in 16 fewer games without at the same time pointing out that he has done it more minutes? Deal with that and then we can move on to why the difference in minutes.

 

[gojetsgo]

How does that address my question?



Why will you point out that Connor has done it in 16 fewer games without at the same time pointing out that he has done it more minutes? Deal with that and then we can move on to why the difference in minutes.

are you trying to say that connor has played more minutes then ehlers this year?

 

[Aries56]

If I was Lowry, I too would be interested in having Nino carry the line. Not much suggests that Lowry deserves any 5v5 minutes above the fourth line level at this point, so Nino will mask some of the offensive woes.

I think Nino in a top 6 role would be great. He's gotten a lot of goals by parking himself in front of the other team's goalie. He doesn't really use that skillset when he's playing with two grinding type players.

The problem is that third line has been too effective, I can't see them breaking it up.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

are you trying to say that connor has played more minutes then ehlers this year?

No. Career.