Rumor: All Purpose Trade Proposals, Speculation and Rumours - 2023/24

[Hunter368]

I disagree that KC is more consistent than Ehlers. I especially disagree that KC has a higher upside. KC's upside is likely to produce more GF. It is also likely to produce more GA.

Coaches will play the players they perceive as giving them the best chance of winning. Right or wrong.

Same big IF as yours. If one has to be traded it hands down should be Connor. His net benefit on the ice is less. Other organizations would value KC higher the same way Jets do so he would also bring the higher return. I'm also not advocating trading either of them.

If it comes to that though, I agree with those who say the org would more likely trade Ehlers. In a backhanded sort of way, I would agree with that, since they continue to fail to appreciate him and underutilize him. It might be best if they trade him for someone they will like better.

Its a interesting debate, when fans admit that multi coaches (who are far more knowledgeable then we are about hockey) and other teams (GM's) would find KC more desirable yet some fans say they value Ehlers more. Why? Is it possible fans don't understand all the dynamics? Don't understand KC's defensive side can be sheltered when needed and benefit from his greater ability on the PP? Am I missing something in this debate?

I just find it puzzling that fans want a player more then all his coaches ever have, are we saying fans know more then multi proven successful coaches & their entire staffs? Weird situation to me regarding Ehlers and I like Ehlers as a person and player, I just know/believe he will never be that consistent PPG winger like KC is. To me Ehlers is what he is, which is still a valuable player but he's that 60 pt guy, while not elite offensively he's better defensively and tends to be a bit injury prone. In the end lesser players can be put on lines to provide defensive support, but lesser players can't score more goals and I guess that's why the NHL market pays more for goal scorers then defensive forwards (generally speaking). In the end I hope the Jets can't keep both, I like both for the role they fill, neither are perfect players, albeit both are good valuable players all teams would love to have.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Its a interesting debate, when fans admit that multi coaches (who are far more knowledgeable then we are about hockey) and other teams (GM's) would find KC more desirable yet some fans say they value Ehlers more. Why? Is it possible fans don't understand all the dynamics? Don't understand KC's defensive side can be sheltered when needed and benefit from his greater ability on the PP? Am I missing something in this debate?

I just find it puzzling that fans want a player more then all his coaches ever have, are we saying fans know more then multi proven successful coaches & their entire staffs? Weird situation to me regarding Ehlers and I like Ehlers as a person and player, I just know/believe he will never be that consistent PPG winger like KC is. To me Ehlers is what he is, which is still a valuable player but he's that 60 pt guy, while not elite offensively he's better defensively and tends to be a bit injury prone. In the end lesser players can be put on lines to provide defensive support, but lesser players can't score more goals and I guess that's why the NHL market pays more for goal scorers then defensive forwards (generally speaking). In the end I hope the Jets can't keep both, I like both for the role they fill, neither are perfect players, albeit both are good valuable players all teams would love to have.

The numbers say that the sheltering of him hasn't worked.

Of course the coaches and GMs are more knowledgeable than we are. But they are human and have biases. Some biases might tend to be common among that group. A team's opinion of a player might tend to be passed along among the club members.

KC is a ppg player. That is only half the picture. Ehlers actually scores more per 60 than KC does. But he doesn't get the TOI.

Why coaches and GM's seem to be unaware of that is a mystery. It appears they rely too much on the eye-test.

 

[Hunter368]

The numbers say that the sheltering of him hasn't worked.

Of course the coaches and GMs are more knowledgeable than we are. But they are human and have biases. Some biases might tend to be common among that group. A team's opinion of a player might tend to be passed along among the club members.

KC is a ppg player. That is only half the picture. Ehlers actually scores more per 60 than KC does. But he doesn't get the TOI.

Why coaches and GM's seem to be unaware of that is a mystery. It appears they rely too much on the eye-test.

Fair points, which we've all talked about before here.........but, one could convince me of bias if talking about 1-2 people all linked on a team, but when talking about potentially a huge chunk of the NHL gm's/coaches I find that harder to believe. One of those life's mysteries haha. Lets hope to keep both and its a moot subject.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Last year's collapse was a team-wide SH% drought, but also a Hellebuyck regression. The Jets actually played better in terms of analytics as they slumped (although that may have been score effects from chasing games). They were pretty consistently above 50% xGF through the slump.

This year we've had the SH% drought but also the xGF% has gone down significantly...right around the time Connor came back.

While Connor was injured the Jets 5-game moving average xGF% was consistently flirting with 60%. For the whole period December 17 - Jan 15, it averaged 58.83%. Since Connor returned to the lineup, the Jets xGF% avg is 52.72%. Generating 0.25 less xGF per game, and giving up 0.15 more xGA per game.

Looking at last year's collapse can be a little misleading. Score effects, as you mention, but also the last part (15 or so games?) when they rebounded somewhat to scrape into the PO by a very thin margin helped their numbers.

I think the correlation with Connor's return is coincidental. At least I sure hope it is. Maybe it has to do with the team state of mind. Maybe they thought that the return of KC's scoring would take the pressure off of them and they let up. Whatever, I don't think it is Connor's fault any more than it is any other single player's fault.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Well, I'm guessing there's some truth to it?

Connor's slumps are few and far between and when he's hot he's a scoring machine.

He's not just as likely to be as invisible as Ehlers, just look at scoresheets from the past 6 years.

Connor is a scorer, he's not perfect. You need consistent scorers

I'll concede Connor may be a little more consistent. He does tend to spread out his scoring somewhat evenly.

You don't simply need to score though. You need to outscore. Connor's net effect is good, not great. Ehlers' net effect is better.

 

[gojetsgo]

Can you list the 7m players that get outscored while playing consistently with a 1C?

Kyle Connor Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Salary, Title | Hockey-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats of Kyle Connor. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, trade, draft, salary and more on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

goals for while connor is on the ice in all situations: 45
goals against while connor is on the ice all situations: 33

that seems like he is a net positive for the team and that's with an extremely weak powerplay and I know people are going to bring up the numbers 5v5 but he's only -1 while being on an extreme cold streak once he gets hot again that 5v5 number will get better so to say we are better with out him is just wrong

 

[10Ducky10]

But it isn't.

No way Buffalo adds. Not even a 7th. Even without an extension.

Mitts is in no way even with KC.
Mitts has scored 61 goals in 332 games.
KC scored 65 in his first two seasons.
KC scored 50 goals last year and this year so far.
The Sabres add.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

most of the games we played fine we just couldn't score and had a bunch of injuries and had we had any sort of pp we would have won way more games

We didn't play fine. If we played "fine" we wouldn't have lost 5 in a row, we would have scored. A bunch of injuries? We've been healthier during that span than any other time in the season.

Yes, special teams. They are pretty important.

During this stretch, IMO we looked good beating the Isles 4-2, the Pens 2-1 even though we only scored 2 and beating Van 4-2. I think yesterday's game was the only all out stinker in the bunch but it suggests that they haven't managed to turn the corner yet.

We had a smattering of good games during last year's collapse too.

 

[10Ducky10]

I mean atm they are feeding Ehlers and his 6m contract bottom six minutes.

He's averaging 16:16 a game.
How many 4th liners play over 16 minutes a game?
He's on pace for 56 points this year.

 

[gojetsgo]

We didn't play fine. If we played "fine" we wouldn't have lost 5 in a row, we would have scored. A bunch of injuries? We've been healthier during that span than any other time in the season.

Yes, special teams. They are pretty important.

During this stretch, IMO we looked good beating the Isles 4-2, the Pens 2-1 even though we only scored 2 and beating Van 4-2. I think yesterday's game was the only all out stinker in the bunch but it suggests that they haven't managed to turn the corner yet.

We had a smattering of good games during last year's collapse too.

we were healthier during that stretch when we were missing scheifele? our best play driver by far... we kept it close against boston with out scheifele until the last 4 mins of the game, we were the better team against the leafs in the 1st game without scheifele/vilardi playing just couldn't score and samsonov stood on his head, we kept the second game close until they scored on a 5v3 in the 3rd then we had a 9 day break after that game

 

[gojetsgo]

He's averaging 16:16 a game.
How many 4th liners play over 16 minutes a game?
He's on pace for 56 points this year.

someone posted a screenshot of the last 18 games played, he's played a whopping 3 minutes less 5v5 ice time then lowry and only put up 3 more points then him

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Mitts is in no way even with KC.
Mitts has scored 61 goals in 332 games.
KC scored 65 in his first two seasons.
KC scored 50 goals last year and this year so far.
The Sabres add.

Career numbers don't matter that much.
Mitts last 2 years .75 ppg
KC last 2 years .96 ppg
advantage Connor
But Mitts is a C. That alone nearly evens it out. He is also a 2 way player.
Advantage Mitts.
Mitts under team control for 1 year after this one, KC for 2, but Mitts is a lot cheaper for that time. I call that about even. Either of them may extend, or walk, but you specified Mitts extended. In that case, big advantage Mitts. Mitts is also 2 years younger, further advantage.

Without the extension I see them as near equal. I might give a slight advantage to KC for 2 more years instead of 1. But our need at C tips the scales.

Buffalo is said to want now players, which KC is. But their greatest needs are in goal and at RHD. Connor does nothing for those needs. They don't have much incentive to add.

 

[10Ducky10]

someone posted a screenshot of the last 18 games played, he's played a whopping 3 minutes less 5v5 ice time then lowry and only put up 3 more points then him

I'm guessing penalties have had a say in that.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

we were healthier during that stretch when we were missing scheifele? our best play driver by far... we kept it close against boston with out scheifele until the last 4 mins of the game, we were the better team against the leafs in the 1st game without scheifele/vilardi playing just couldn't score and samsonov stood on his head, we kept the second game close until they scored on a 5v3 in the 3rd then we had a 9 day break after that game

I was thinking of Connor being back. Forgot all about Scheif. We were without Scheifele for 6 games. If we are a contender, if the players are still earning that confidence from management that lead to the Monahan trade, then we need to be able to do better with 1 key player out. Injuries are so common in the NHL that they really can't be used as an excuse until you have like 5-6 starters out. Everybody has injuries.

If I'm Chevy, I want to see them get back to their winning style before I go spending more assets.

 

[gojetsgo]

I was thinking of Connor being back. Forgot all about Scheif. We were without Scheifele for 6 games. If we are a contender, if the players are still earning that confidence from management that lead to the Monahan trade, then we need to be able to do better with 1 key player out. Injuries are so common in the NHL that they really can't be used as an excuse until you have like 5-6 starters out. Everybody has injuries.

If I'm Chevy, I want to see them get back to their winning style before I go spending more assets.

all I'm saying is they played fine against good teams during this stretch of play, losing steaks happen to every team that doesn't mean you are playing bad

 

[Jet]

I'll concede Connor may be a little more consistent. He does tend to spread out his scoring somewhat evenly.

You don't simply need to score though. You need to outscore. Connor's net effect is good, not great. Ehlers' net effect is better.

Agree to disagree.

 

[10Ducky10]

Career numbers don't matter that much.
Mitts last 2 years .75 ppg
KC last 2 years .96 ppg
advantage Connor
But Mitts is a C. That alone nearly evens it out. He is also a 2 way player.
Advantage Mitts.
Mitts under team control for 1 year after this one, KC for 2, but Mitts is a lot cheaper for that time. I call that about even. Either of them may extend, or walk, but you specified Mitts extended. In that case, big advantage Mitts. Mitts is also 2 years younger, further advantage.

Without the extension I see them as near equal. I might give a slight advantage to KC for 2 more years instead of 1. But our need at C tips the scales.

Buffalo is said to want now players, which KC is. But their greatest needs are in goal and at RHD. Connor does nothing for those needs. They don't have much incentive to add.

Mitts' last two seasons he scored 78 points in 120 games.
KC's last two seasons he scored 173 points in 161 games.
This year Mitts is .8 ppg and KC is .92 ppg.
How can you say Mitts is cheaper when his current deal expires at the end of this season?
Also, do you know how much time he has spent on the wing and how much as a center?
They were born two years apart.

32 GMs will tell you the Sabres add.

 

[hn777]

He's averaging 16:16 a game.
How many 4th liners play over 16 minutes a game?
He's on pace for 56 points this year.

He has played 15 and 12 mins the last two games, that's "bottom six minutes" IMO.

 

[hn777]

Kyle Connor Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Salary, Title | Hockey-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats of Kyle Connor. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, trade, draft, salary and more on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

goals for while connor is on the ice in all situations: 45
goals against while connor is on the ice all situations: 33

that seems like he is a net positive for the team and that's with an extremely weak powerplay and I know people are going to bring up the numbers 5v5 but he's only -1 while being on an extreme cold streak once he gets hot again that 5v5 number will get better so to say we are better with out him is just wrong

We are discussing the impact of Connor at 5v5 and you reply with including PP and says now he becomes a net positive. Impressive!

 

[gojetsgo]

We are discussing the impact of Connor at 5v5 and you reply with including PP and says now he becomes a net positive. Impressive!

LOL talk about moving the goal posts... "Serious question. Are we a better team without Kyle Connor? The numbers seem to say yes." is how this discussion started... I'm sorry that connor has been on the ice for more goals then against in all situations and that didn't support your narrative that we are better with out him because he couldn't caryr us against vegas

 

[hn777]

LOL talk about moving the goal posts... "Serious question. Are we a better team without Kyle Connor? The numbers seem to say yes." is how this discussion started... I'm sorry that connor has been on the ice for more goals then against in all situations and that didn't support your narrative that we are better with out him because he couldn't caryr us against vegas

It's almost like a discussion can develop since the beginning.
Your reply was to this comment "Can you list the 7m players that get outscored while playing consistently with a 1C?". This obviously refers to 5v5, right?

 

[10Ducky10]

He has played 15 and 12 mins the last two games, that's "bottom six minutes" IMO.

He doesn't kill penalties and plays PP2 so I am guessing that has something to do with his low minutes the last game or two.
I'm not saying he shouldn't get more time but if he is on PP2 and not on the PK, in games with lots of penalties, he will see less TOI.

Can you list the 7m players that get outscored while playing consistently with a 1C?

Jeff Skinner?

 

[TheJadePipe]

Yes, he is not a guy, you win with. He - together with PLD and Wheeler - got eaten alive by Vegas in last years PO's, when our four best playdrivers (Ehlers, Scheifele, Morrissey, and Perfetti) were out lot of the series due to injury.

Crazy talk

 

[gojetsgo]

It's almost like a discussion can develop since the beginning.
Your reply was to this comment "Can you list the 7m players that get outscored while playing consistently with a 1C?". This obviously refers to 5v5, right?

it refers to 5v5 if you want to ignore that connor has had a positive impact overall on this team to say that we would be better with out him and if he was consitently getting outscored 5v5 he would be much worse then -1, one good game and those numbers will go positive...

 

[Gm0ney]

someone posted a screenshot of the last 18 games played, he's played a whopping 3 minutes less 5v5 ice time then lowry and only put up 3 more points then him

Small sample alert! Here's a larger sample for additional statistical confidence:

Since the start of the 2021 season, Ehlers has played 2821:19 minutes at 5v5.
He has 55 goals and 119 points over that span. 1.16 g/60, 2.53 p/60.

Over the same period, Lowry has played 3169:48 (+348:29) at 5v5.
He has 31 goals (-24) and 72 points (-47). 0.58 g/60, 1.36 p/60.

Connor over the same period has played 3872:20 (+1051:01) at 5v5
He has 76 (+21) goals and 136 points (+17). 1.18 g/60, 2.11 p/60.

So despite playing over 1000 fewer minutes than Connor, he's only 17 points behind him in 5v5 scoring.

The Jets also don't get scored on as much when Ehlers is on the ice.
2.78 GA/60 for Connor vs. 1.98 GA/60 with Ehlers vs 2.01 GA/60 with Lowry.