Rumor: All Purpose Trade Proposals, Speculation and Rumours - 2023/24

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Jack7222

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Mar 17, 2021
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I think that one issue with Ehlers' playstyle is that he needs to be 'the guy'. He is the one that controls the play most of the time and the other two forwards often end up playing a bit more of a supporting role, skating around trying to guess what he's going to do. It's effective, but I do wonder if maybe it doesn't sit well with certain players.
 

Mortimer Snerd

You kids get off my lawn!
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You're intelligent enough to know that the idea is not to just improve the fourth. The point is that we need to break up the first line, and ideally the third too - to improve all four lines. I'd make both those chances tomorrow if given a chance, but they're choosing to paying a millionaire to not see an obvious issue.

It blows my mind why neither of these options is never even attempted unless they're absolutely forced to (t.ex. Scheifele and Connor getting injured). We have public data across many seasons suggesting that Connor and Scheifele should be separated / Ehlers and Scheifele work well as a tandem. And nothing happens.

Also - The building a better 4th line was a little facetious. I knew that wasn't the point. Sorry.
 

Maukkis

EZ4ENCE
Mar 16, 2016
10,721
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I agree with your issues, not your solution. The Lowry line is fine as is, just a little overused. Connor on the 4th line is a waste of him as a player, not to mention his contract.

Connor on the 2nd line could elevate that line. Against softer matchups he is likely to score more and his defensive weakness will be less exposed.
This is the ideal solution, should he and Monahan work well together. Whether it would be best to have them with Vilardi or Perfetti, who knows.

But all of this, ultimately, comes back to the same problem: they're not trying anything new. Even having Lowry on the fourth would be an improvement, because that would create a more offensive third line - and allow for more combinations in the "new" top 9. But as it stands, they're just wasting a lot of potential. How come we have an offensive driver like Niederreiter doing largely nothing, when we have problems in the top 6?
 

Jack7222

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Mar 17, 2021
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I want to win. Connor has been better than Ehlers by almost every metric this season. Go ahead and look it up on naturalstattrick if you don't believe me. Ehlers is not playing well and he's been really bad in the last ten. Perfetti is a ghost. On one hand people want to drop Connor off the top line for his defensive flaws, but they want to elevate Ehlers even while he's been worse.


1708458597557.png


What am I missing? Ehlers has 2.42 p/60 and Connor has 1.78 p/60...
 

Maukkis

EZ4ENCE
Mar 16, 2016
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I want to win. Connor has been better than Ehlers by almost every metric this season. Go ahead and look it up on naturalstattrick if you don't believe me. Ehlers is not playing well and he's been really bad in the last ten. Perfetti is a ghost. On one hand people want to drop Connor off the top line for his defensive flaws, but they want to elevate Ehlers even while he's been worse.

Ehlers has been the more productive player at even strength. The gap between the two is quite large.

I'm of the opinion that most of the team sucks right now, and there are probably more than 15 people who need a wake-up call. It would only be logical to start from the line that gets 20 minutes a night and does f*** all with it.
 

AtomicJets

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Dec 20, 2014
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And who besides Monahan and Hellebuyck done more for the last 10 games?
The guys who have actually scored? Ehlers has one goal in the last ten. Name a player and he has almost certainly contributed more than Ehlers.
View attachment 822759

What am I missing? Ehlers has 2.42 p/60 and Connor has 1.78 p/60...
Every other metric in the table. P/60 says nothing about defensive impact.
 
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hn777

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Apr 22, 2019
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I want to win. Connor has been better than Ehlers by almost every metric this season. Go ahead and look it up on naturalstattrick if you don't believe me. Ehlers is not playing well and he's been really bad in the last ten. Perfetti is a ghost. On one hand people want to drop Connor off the top line for his defensive flaws, but they want to elevate Ehlers even while he's been worse.

You forgot the part where winning means to score more goals than your opponent.

5v5 last three seasons:
Scheifele - Connor (w/o Ehlers) GF 56 - GA 63
Scheifele - Ehlers (w/o Connor) GF 40 - GA 21
 

Mortimer Snerd

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This is the ideal solution, should he and Monahan work well together. Whether it would be best to have them with Vilardi or Perfetti, who knows.

But all of this, ultimately, comes back to the same problem: they're not trying anything new. Even having Lowry on the fourth would be an improvement, because that would create a more offensive third line - and allow for more combinations in the "new" top 9. But as it stands, they're just wasting a lot of potential. How come we have an offensive driver like Niederreiter doing largely nothing, when we have problems in the top 6?

I see Lowry getting bumped to the 4th line at some point. But right now we don't have the 2 way C to play on the 3rd line.

We could try Names there but honestly, I don't see him as being good enough either offensively or defensively for that role. I know he filled in at 2C fairly well but he is not a shutdown player nor is he an offensive driver.

We need to get a 2C first and then a 3C better than Lowry before Lowry gets bumped down.

The guys who have actually scored? Ehlers has one goal in the last ten. Name a player and he has almost certainly contributed more than Ehlers.

Every other metric in the table. P/60 says nothing about defensive impact.

The entire team has been unable to score for more than the last 10 games. Singling out Ehlers and Perfetti is pointless.
 

Maukkis

EZ4ENCE
Mar 16, 2016
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The guys who have actually scored? Ehlers has one goal in the last ten. Name a player and he has almost certainly contributed more than Ehlers.

Every other metric in the table. P/60 says nothing about defensive impact.
Connor is among the team's worst skaters in terms of Corsi against (#18), while Ehlers sits at #2. You got one answer w/r/t Connor getting lit up with Scheifele above, so even actual goals against don't really support your argument here.
 

Gm0ney

Unicorns salient
Oct 12, 2011
14,924
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Winnipeg
I want to win. Connor has been better than Ehlers by almost every metric this season. Go ahead and look it up on naturalstattrick if you don't believe me. Ehlers is not playing well and he's been really bad in the last ten. Perfetti is a ghost. On one hand people want to drop Connor off the top line for his defensive flaws, but they want to elevate Ehlers even while he's been worse.

I think you mixed up Connor and Ehlers in your post there...
 

Mortimer Snerd

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The idea was that the team was playing like a contender. They earned the support of management trading to strengthen them for a PO run. The last 15 games have not lived up to that. Any additional TD moves should be put on hold until this team gets back to playing the right way.

Was the Van game a mirage? Or was it more about Van than about Jets? They turned around and gave up 10 goals the next game - to Minny (though they also scored 7 so .....).

Seriously, the team is not looking good. Either they can't score, or they can't defend. Mostly can't score. This doesn't look like last year's collapse. Not exactly. But there is a resemblance.
 
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gojetsgo

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The idea was that the team was playing like a contender. They earned the support of management trading to strengthen them for a PO run. The last 15 games have not lived up to that. Any additional TD moves should be put on hold until this team gets back to playing the right way.

Was the Van game a mirage? Or was it more about Van than about Jets? They turned around and gave up 10 goals the next game - to Minny (though they also scored 7 so .....).

Seriously, the team is not looking good. Either they can't score, or they can't defend. Mostly can't score. This doesn't look like last year's collapse. Not exactly. But there is a resemblance.
most of the games we played fine we just couldn't score and had a bunch of injuries and had we had any sort of pp we would have won way more games
 
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Jet

Chibby!
Jul 20, 2004
34,150
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And when KC is not playing his A game?
He is also invisible, maybe even more so, or visible in negative ways.
KC is just as likely to be invisible as Ehlers, as we have seen recently. And yet people still say things like, "KC game to game you know what you get" and apparently coaches think it.
Well, I'm guessing there's some truth to it?

Connor's slumps are few and far between and when he's hot he's a scoring machine.

He's not just as likely to be as invisible as Ehlers, just look at scoresheets from the past 6 years.

Connor is a scorer, he's not perfect. You need consistent scorers
 

hn777

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Apr 22, 2019
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Serious question. Are we a better team without Kyle Connor? The numbers seem to say yes.
Yes, he is not a guy, you win with. He - together with PLD and Wheeler - got eaten alive by Vegas in last years PO's, when our four best playdrivers (Ehlers, Scheifele, Morrissey, and Perfetti) were out lot of the series due to injury.
 

gojetsgo

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Yes, he is not a guy, you win with. He - together with PLD and Wheeler - got eaten alive by Vegas in last years PO's, when our four best playdrivers (Ehlers, Scheifele, Morrissey, and Perfetti) were out lot of the series due to injury.
what? a team with out their #1 centers #1 defensemen another top 6 winger weren't good against the team that won the stanley cup? you don't say...
 
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hn777

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Apr 22, 2019
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what? a team with out their #1 centers #1 defensemen another top 6 wingers weren't good? you don't say...
Pretty sure Ehlers + Scheifele + Perfetti would have done better, if Connor + PLD + Wheeler were the ones injured. I mean, the team was more than fine without Connor this year.
 

Gm0ney

Unicorns salient
Oct 12, 2011
14,924
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Winnipeg
The idea was that the team was playing like a contender. They earned the support of management trading to strengthen them for a PO run. The last 15 games have not lived up to that. Any additional TD moves should be put on hold until this team gets back to playing the right way.

Was the Van game a mirage? Or was it more about Van than about Jets? They turned around and gave up 10 goals the next game - to Minny (though they also scored 7 so .....).

Seriously, the team is not looking good. Either they can't score, or they can't defend. Mostly can't score. This doesn't look like last year's collapse. Not exactly. But there is a resemblance.
Last year's collapse was a team-wide SH% drought, but also a Hellebuyck regression. The Jets actually played better in terms of analytics as they slumped (although that may have been score effects from chasing games). They were pretty consistently above 50% xGF through the slump.

This year we've had the SH% drought but also the xGF% has gone down significantly...right around the time Connor came back.

While Connor was injured the Jets 5-game moving average xGF% was consistently flirting with 60%. For the whole period December 17 - Jan 15, it averaged 58.83%. Since Connor returned to the lineup, the Jets xGF% avg is 52.72%. Generating 0.25 less xGF per game, and giving up 0.15 more xGA per game.
 
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gojetsgo

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Pretty sure Ehlers + Scheifele + Perfetti would have done better, if Connor + PLD + Wheeler were the ones injured. I mean, the team was more than fine without Connor this year.
it doesn't matter if those 3 would have handled it better, saying were better with out him because we couldn't beat the champs with those injuries is ridiculous
 

hn777

Registered User
Apr 22, 2019
674
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it doesn't matter if those 3 would have handled it better, saying were better with out him because we couldn't beat the champs with those injuries is ridiculous
I don't think he is good enough two-ways to play 20 mins a night, or to be one of the best paid. IMO, he is a complementary player, a good scorer, yes, but we have others - more complete players - just as good, when given the opportunity.

Edit: Also, I am not saying... it's because we couldn't beat the champs. That's your assumption, it was an example of what can happen, when the playdrivers are out of the lineup, and we have the complementary (including Connor) left.
 

gojetsgo

Registered User
Nov 1, 2015
11,133
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I don't think he is good enough two-ways to play 20 mins a night, or to be one of the best paid. IMO, he is a complementary player, a good scorer, yes, but we have others - more complete players - just as good, when given the opportunity.
can you list the 40+ goal scorers that get paid less then 7 million a year?
 
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