All Purpose Mitch Marner Talk II

[Joey Hoser]

Anyone agree or disagree with Mitch Marner projected to get 59 points next season?

If you take his average from the last two seasons, it projects to 64 points. I wouldn't expect him to score less, but 59 is reasonably conservative and not an outrage.

 

[Stephen]

You have not. Do not misrepresent the statements of others.

Matthews' contract is in line with his comparables, and not just in terms of goals. If contracts were just based off goal-scoring, Matthews would have an amazing contract.

We can all sign off on the idea that Matthews at this contract length and term is acceptable even with a flat cap. We love to have him as a Leaf for all the great things he's going to do both related to individual scoring and team achievements, but I wouldn't say he has an "amazing" contract.

Guy gets paid $247,531 per goal, which is significantly higher than his direct comparables aka Rocket Richard co winners like Pastrnak $138,888 per goal, or Ovechkin, $198,717 per goal.

Cost Per Point - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[Gabriel426]

I would take Tkachuk ahead of Marner every time.
Tkachuk is a WAY better player.
Marner is a one trick pony.
Small/Soft/Poor Defence and a whiner to boot.

That’s literally like saying John LeClair over Pavel Bure bc LeClair is a power forward, who scores, hits and gritty.
Marner is a much better player than the original Tkachuk.
Marner might not have a great contract, can’t really shoot, and an inappropriate fashion sense after a game but he is a much better player than Tkachuk.

 

[Gabriel426]

When it comes to contract, I think the question is would other teams pay a similar amount for that player.

Like would 30 other teams pay McDavid?
Or would 30 other teams pay Steve Duchense?
If no, how many teams would?

 

[Notsince67]

I would take Tkachuk ahead of Marner every time.
Tkachuk is a WAY better player.
Marner is a one trick pony.
Small/Soft/Poor Defence and a whiner to boot.

I would take Damian Cox opinion over yours. Better to be wrong than dumb.

 

[Dekes For Days]

We can all sign off on the idea that Matthews at this contract length and term is acceptable even with a flat cap. We love to have him as a Leaf for all the great things he's going to do both related to individual scoring and team achievements, but I wouldn't say he has an "amazing" contract.

I didn't say he got an "amazing" contract. I said that if contracts were based entirely off of goalscoring, then Matthews' contract would be amazing, so I didn't really understand how the other individual came to his claim. With the way contract valuation actually works, Matthews' contract is perfectly reasonable and in line with his comparables.

 

[Stephen]

I didn't say he got an "amazing" contract. I said that if contracts were based entirely off of goalscoring, then Matthews' contract would be amazing, so I didn't really understand how the other individual came to his claim. With the way contract valuation actually works, Matthews' contract is perfectly reasonable and in line with his comparables.

Not really. Based on Cost Per Goals for the 2019-20 season Matthews ranks 271st in the NHL (or 177th if you exclude ELCs) at $247,531 per goal, so Toronto is paying for what it's getting. Compare this to Mackinnon at $180,000 per goal, Draisaitl at $197,674 per goal, or the aforementioned Pastrnak and Ovechkin. I'm happy to have Matthews, his upside and production and the rest of the franchise player package, but it's clearly a luxury item.

 

[ToneDog]

I didn't say he got an "amazing" contract. I said that if contracts were based entirely off of goalscoring, then Matthews' contract would be amazing, so I didn't really understand how the other individual came to his claim. With the way contract valuation actually works, Matthews' contract is perfectly reasonable and in line with his comparables.

If contracts were based entirely off of goalscoring, then Pasta's and Drai's contracts would be amazing, Matty's would be just O.K.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Not really. Based on Cost Per Goals for the 2019-20 season Matthews ranks 271st in the NHL (or 177th if you exclude ELCs) at $247,531 per goal, so Toronto is paying for what it's getting. Compare this to Mackinnon at $180,000 per goal, Draisaitl at $197,674 per goal, or the aforementioned Pastrnak and Ovechkin. I'm happy to have Matthews, his upside and production and the rest of the franchise player package, but it's clearly a luxury item.

Nathan MacKinnon as an example signed his 7 year $6.3 million AAV contract on July 8, 2016 after he had 21 goals, 31 assists, and 52 points during the 2015-16 season.

Since he's become a much better player during that time wouldn't it be fair to say on his next contract he should get more money than Matthews or Marner? That's assuming things go back to normal and there no flat cap when MacKinnon's contract expires after the 2022-23 season.

 

[Stephen]

Nathan MacKinnon as an example signed his 7 year $6.3 million AAV contract on July 8, 2016 after he had 21 goals, 31 assists, and 52 points during the 2015-16 season.

Since he's become a much better player since that time wouldn't it be fair to say on his next contract he should get more money than Matthews or Marner? That's assuming things go back to normal and there no flat cap when MacKinnon's contract expires after the 2022-23 season.

I just don't think we need to overly celebrate contracts even if we are completely fine with them. It's a simply a premium contract at the end of the day.

 

[LeafsNation75]

I just don't think we need to overly celebrate contracts even if we are completely fine with them. It's a simply a premium contract at the end of the day.

I agree. However it's also easy to say look at MacKinnon's contract and say how is he making so much less compared to Marner, even though he wasn't the same player today when he signed it. Since he's had 97, 99, and 93 points the last three seasons and been a finalist twice for the Hart Trophy and some claim he should have won it in 2017 and instead of Taylor Hall, I'm sure he's worth a lot more today compared to 4 years ago when he signed his current contract.

 

[Stephen]

I agree. However it's also easy to say look at MacKinnon's contract and say how is he making so much less compared to Marner, even though he wasn't the same player today when he signed it. Since he's had 97, 99, and 93 points the last three seasons and been a finalist twice for the Hart Trophy and some claim he should have won it in 2017 and instead of Taylor Hall, I'm sure he's worth a lot more today compared to 4 years ago when he signed his current contract.

It is what it is. Matthews is my favorite player, happy to have the Leafs pay him what he's making now, happy to do it again when the contract is up, but I wouldn't frame it as a great value deal relative to any comparable, however you slice it.

To be fair to Matthews, it's just the nature of the dollar value of the contract. Connor McDavid's dollar per goal is quite terrible. But I'm sure the Oilers are happy to pay for that prestige and upside as well.

 

[LeafsNation75]

It is what it is. Matthews is my favorite player, happy to have the Leafs pay him what he's making now, happy to do it again when the contract is up, but I wouldn't frame it as a great value deal relative to any comparable, however you slice it.

To be fair to Matthews, it's just the nature of the dollar value of the contract. Connor McDavid's dollar per goal is quite terrible. But I'm sure the Oilers are happy to pay for that prestige and upside as well.

I agree that Matthews contract would look even better if it was similar to the 8 year and $10 million AAV Jack Eichel got, although Matthews did deserve more money than him.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Not really. Based on Cost Per Goals for the 2019-20 season Matthews ranks 271st in the NHL (or 177th if you exclude ELCs) at $247,531 per goal, so Toronto is paying for what it's getting.

Not sure what you think a list of entry level contracts, league minimum players, and contracts signed under different caps with their single season raw goals proves, but it doesn't really have anything to do with the discussion that was being had. Based on goal scoring, at time of signing his post-ELC contract, he deserved the biggest post-ELC contract in the entire cap era. He did not get that. Not to mention that based on goal scoring, he would deserve to be the highest paid player in the league, and he is not. If contracts were only based on goal-scoring ability, then the contract Matthews signed would have been historically great.

All of this is pretty irrelevant anyway, because contracts are not based on just goals. By actual methods of contract valuation, he was properly paid.

 

[Gabriel426]

Not really. Based on Cost Per Goals for the 2019-20 season Matthews ranks 271st in the NHL (or 177th if you exclude ELCs) at $247,531 per goal, so Toronto is paying for what it's getting. Compare this to Mackinnon at $180,000 per goal, Draisaitl at $197,674 per goal, or the aforementioned Pastrnak and Ovechkin. I'm happy to have Matthews, his upside and production and the rest of the franchise player package, but it's clearly a luxury item.

Well pretty sure McDavid’s $per goal is higher. Does that mean he is a luxury item too?

 

[LeafsNation75]

Not sure what you think a list of entry level contracts, league minimum players, and contracts signed under different caps with their single season raw goals proves, but it doesn't really have anything to do with the discussion that was being had. Based on goal scoring, at time of signing his post-ELC contract, he deserved the biggest post-ELC contract in the entire cap era. He did not get that. Not to mention that based on goal scoring, he would deserve to be the highest paid player in the league, and he is not. If contracts were only based on goal-scoring ability, then the contract Matthews signed would have been historically great.

All of this is pretty irrelevant though, because contracts are not based on just goals. By actual methods of contract valuation, he was properly paid.

No one disagrees that Matthews was one of the best goal scoring Forwards while on his ELC. The problem is when you see the contracts McDavid and Eichel the contract Matthews got should have been similar to Eichel's based on the number of years he would get. So while his AAV of $11.634 million is not a problem, it was only signing for 5 years instead of 8 years that was the problem.

 

[Dekes For Days]

No one disagrees that Matthews was one of the best goal scoring Forwards while on his ELC.

He was a lot more than just that.

The problem is when you see the contracts McDavid and Eichel the contract Matthews got should have been similar to Eichel's based on the number of years he would get. So while his AAV of $11.634 million is not a problem, it was only signing for 5 years instead of 8 years that was the problem.

Matthews' AAV at his term is not a problem. It was proper valuation based on his pre-signing period. McDavid/Matthews were in a whole other tier than Eichel at time of signing.

 

[LeafsNation75]

He was a lot more than just that.

Matthews' AAV at his term is not a problem. It was proper valuation based on his pre-signing period. Eichel was in a whole lower tier than McDavid/Matthews at time of signing.

Except you are forgetting or choosing to leave out that Jack Eichel and his 8 year $10 million AAV was the best comparable for Matthews. I don't remember anyone saying Matthews deserved a similar contract than what McDavid got.

McDavid had just won the Hart Trophy, Art Ross, and Ted Lindsay Award when he signed his contract extension.

Matthews only had the Calder Trophy on his resume.

 

[Stephen]

Well pretty sure McDavid’s $per goal is higher. Does that mean he is a luxury item too?

Of course he is. I'm sure there's some kind of optimum goal/assist/point per dollar ratio and I'm very comfortable saying anybody making $10 million plus per year is going to be north of that optimum.

At the Matthews, McDavid, Marner, Kane, Kopitar, Tavares price tag a team is clearly paying some prestige premium that goes beyond current production alone. And we can all be happy with that salary. We just don't have to pretend like we got a steal.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Except you are forgetting or choosing to leave out that Jack Eichel and his 8 year $10 million AAV was the best comparable for Matthews.

He was not the best comparable. He was barely a comparable at all. Matthews had been way better than Eichel at time of signing their respective post-ELC contracts. Eichel was more in the Aho/Rantanen tier. The best comparable for Matthews was probably Malkin.

I don't remember anyone saying Matthews deserved a similar contract than what McDavid got.

Whether or not people said it, he did deserve it. Especially the post-discount version of his contract.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Of course he is. I'm sure there's some kind of optimum goal/assist/point per dollar ratio and I'm very comfortable saying anybody making $10 million plus per year is going to be north of that optimum.

At the Matthews, McDavid, Marner, Kane, Kopitar, Tavares price tag a team is clearly paying some prestige premium that goes beyond current production alone. And we can all be happy with that salary. We just don't have to pretend like we got a steal.

This is something I have said before and do you think it still applies today.

In the past before their ELC had finished Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Steven Stamkos, Evgeni Malkin, and Victor Hedman for example all signed 5 year contract extensions. I know the salary cap was different at that time, however I don't remember anyone complaining about them only signing for 5 years?

Other players at that time who signed for more than 5 years was John Tavares who got 6 years from the Islanders.

Plus Sidney Crosby got 12 years and Alex Ovechkin got 13 years, so it was before the NHL started with those 7 and 8 year limits.

 

[LeafsNation75]

He was not the best comparable. He was barely a comparable at all. Matthews had been way better than Eichel at time of signing their respective post-ELC contracts. Eichel was more in the Aho/Rantanen tier. The best comparable for Matthews was probably Malkin.

When Malkin was on his ELC he had already won the Art Ross and Conn Smythe in his 3rd season and that's not including the Calder Trophy. So there is no way Malkin was his best comparable.

So are you going to deny that no one said Eichel was the best comparable for Matthews contract wise.

 

[Stephen]

Not sure what you think a list of entry level contracts, league minimum players, and contracts signed under different caps with their single season raw goals proves, but it doesn't really have anything to do with the discussion that was being had. Based on goal scoring, at time of signing his post-ELC contract, he deserved the biggest post-ELC contract in the entire cap era. He did not get that. Not to mention that based on goal scoring, he would deserve to be the highest paid player in the league, and he is not. If contracts were only based on goal-scoring ability, then the contract Matthews signed would have been historically great.

All of this is pretty irrelevant anyway, because contracts are not based on just goals. By actual methods of contract valuation, he was properly paid.

Matthews ranks 177th for non ELC contracts based on price per goal ($247,531) and 298th on price per points ($145,425) in 2019-20.

On pure production alone, it's not a bargain. It's not a value contract. It's expensive relative other elite players. It's a luxury. But we can still be happy with it.

 

[Gabriel426]

Of course he is. I'm sure there's some kind of optimum goal/assist/point per dollar ratio and I'm very comfortable saying anybody making $10 million plus per year is going to be north of that optimum.

At the Matthews, McDavid, Marner, Kane, Kopitar, Tavares price tag a team is clearly paying some prestige premium that goes beyond current production alone. And we can all be happy with that salary. We just don't have to pretend like we got a steal.

I am with you bro.

I think all players with 10mil plus contracts are overpaid as none of them have even lead their team to the 2nd round of the playoffs.
If it wasn’t for the playin format, more than half of them won’t even be playing after the regular season.

 

[Stephen]

When Malkin was on his ELC he had already won the Art Ross and Conn Smythe in his 3rd season and that's not including the Calder Trophy. So there is no way Malkin was his best comparable.

So are you going to deny that no one said Eichel was the best comparable for Matthews contract wise.

I agree. Saying the Matthews contract is a great deal is like like bragging that you got a bargain on a $10 million Bugatti Centodieci. No you didn't. You paid a very hefty price for something amazing and you're happy with the purchase. The end.