All Purpose Mitch Marner Talk II

[ACC1224]

I agree that all the Maple Leafs players need to be better in the playoffs.

However I think Marner should do better than what we have seen from him because in my opinion he's Toronto's best play maker.

With the exception of his 9 points in seven games against Boston in 2018 which was his best playoff year so far, here are his playoff stats the previous years.

2017: 4 Points in six games against Washington which totaled 1 goal and 3 assists.

2019: 4 Points in seven games against Boston which totaled 2 goals and 2 assists.

2020: 4 Points in five games played against Columbus which totaled 0 goals and 4 assists.

For context how many points did the team leader finish at in each season?

 

[LeafsNation75]

For context how many points did the team leader finish at in each season?

In the 2016-17 Season Matthews was 1st with 69 points.

In the 2017-18 Season Marner was 1st with 69 points.

In the 2018-19 Season Marner was 1st with 94 Points.

In the 2019-20 Season Matthews was 1st with 80 Points.

However I'm sure you would agree that after Marner's 94 points during the 2018-19 season, 4 points against Boston during those seven games would be considered a disappointment. Especially since the Maple Leafs were up 3-2 in that series with a chance to eliminate Boston in Game 6 which was played in Toronto.

 

[LeafsNation75]

The Toronto Maple Leafs could have paid Auston Matthews (or Mitch Marner) $20 million per year and you will find someone who will post rationalize it as an absolute steal. All I'm saying is by any real metric Matthews contract is not a great deal, not really in line with comparables but we can still live with it and there are still ways that Matthews can actually live up to that contract AAV.

Since this is a Marner thread do you think a better player comparable of a contract for him to sign would have been the 8 year/$9.5 million AAV contract Nikita Kucherov got from the Lightning? He signed that contract after he had 100 points during the 2017-18 Season and Marner signed his 6 year $10.893 million AAV contract after he had 94 points during the 2018-19 Season. Plus another comparable between them is both of them play Right Wing.

I know that there is that whole no state tax advantage the Lightning can use to get their players to sign for less AAV compared to what they are worth. However if you forget about that for a moment and only look at the number of years and the AAV, would that have been the best comparable for Marner?

 

[Dekes For Days]

would that have been the best comparable for Marner?

Kucherov was not a comparable at all, let alone the "best" one. Post-ELC contracts use post-ELC comparables.

 

[Stephen]

Kucherov was not a comparable at all, let alone the "best" one. Post-ELC contracts use post-ELC comparables.

You're right about Kucherov. A guy making $9.5 million whose career high in points is 128 is no comparison at all.

In fact, Mitch Marner is the 6th highest paid player in the NHL. You'd struggle to find any suitable comparable for him making that kind of money whether they are exiting ELC's, or age range, position, individual accomplishment or team championships.

 

[ACC1224]

In the 2016-17 Season Matthews was 1st with 69 points.

In the 2017-18 Season Marner was 1st with 69 points.

In the 2018-19 Season Marner was 1st with 94 Points.

In the 2019-20 Season Matthews was 1st with 80 Points.

However I'm sure you would agree that after Marner's 94 points during the 2018-19 season, 4 points against Boston during those seven games would be considered a disappointment. Especially since the Maple Leafs were up 3-2 in that series with a chance to eliminate Boston in Game 6 which was played in Toronto.

The post I quoted was referring to playoff points.

 

[Dayjobdave]

I was grumpy with Mitch last year due to the who
E contract thing and then I thought he was forcing the play. Something tells me he is going to have a monster year this year and really play into another level altogether.

 

[Dekes For Days]

You'd struggle to find any suitable comparable for him making that kind of money whether they are exiting ELC's, or age range, position, individual accomplishment or team championships.

It's actually not hard at all. Marner's contract was not abnormal relative to his comparables. He's just been very underappreciated.

 

[Atomos2]

This guy better be good this year.

 

[Stephen]

It's actually not hard at all. Marner's contract was not abnormal relative to his comparables. He's just been very underappreciated.

Feel free to name all of the comparables.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Feel free to name all of the comparables.

He fits in decently relative to most high-end post-ELC contracts. Kane and Rantanen are probably the best comparables, and Marner's contract makes perfect sense relative to theirs. The funny thing is, Marner got the 6th highest value post-ELC winger contract, but had the 2nd best pre-signing period for a winger in the entire cap era. That's not to say that Marner was some amazing signing, but it's fair value, and it should put into perspective the wild overreactions to his contract.

 

[Gary Nylund]

You're right about Kucherov. A guy making $9.5 million whose career high in points is 128 is no comparison at all.

In fact, Mitch Marner is the 6th highest paid player in the NHL. You'd struggle to find any suitable comparable for him making that kind of money whether they are exiting ELC's, or age range, position, individual accomplishment or team championships.

I think 99% of people here agree that Marner's contract was an overpayment. Not sure what the other 1% are smoking.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

He fits in decently relative to most high-end post-ELC contracts. Kane and Rantanen are probably the best comparables, and Marner's contract makes perfect sense relative to theirs. The funny thing is, Marner got the 6th highest value post-ELC winger contract, but had the 2nd best pre-signing period for a winger in the entire cap era. That's not to say that Marner was some amazing signing, but it's fair value, and it should put into perspective the wild overreactions to his contract.

Not sure how Rantanen contract had any bearing on Marner's contract considering it was signed afterwards.

 

[zeke]

In fact, Mitch Marner is the 6th highest paid player in the NHL.

Also the 10th highest scoring player in the NHL over the last 2yrs. And the youngest of those 10.

So yeah, an overpayment but still not a big deal.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Not sure how Rantanen contract had any bearing on Marner's contract considering it was signed afterwards.

Maybe it's just an example of how other GM's did a better job when it comes to signing their star players?

 

[BAM]

Feel free to name all of the comparables.

Before anyone can answer that, are you capable of understanding that contracts are essentially tied to % of the cap? Kane imo is the closest comparable (I do agree Marner is overpaid, he shouldn't have gotten more than 9.5-10 but it's better to overpay your top guys than giving that spare money to useless parts of your roster like other teams have done.

Patrick Kane Post ELC cap hit% - 10.6%
Mitch Marner Post ELC cap hit% - 13.4%
Alex Ovechkin Post ELC cap hit% - MUCH HIGHER

Kane ELC production - 0.94 ppg
Marner ELC production - 0.93 ppg

Although Kane is even more impressive considering he came into the NHL right after the draft whereas Marner was sent back to London as the Leafs were tanking for Matthews his first season post-draft.

 

[zeke]

Maybe it's just an example of how other GM's did a better job when it comes to signing their star players?

They signed a lesser player for less money. I guess that's a good job maybe.

Or are you talking about the contract they gave MacKinnon after back to back 50pt seasons?

 

[BAM]

Maybe it's just an example of how other GM's did a better job when it comes to signing their star players?

Marner ELC production: 0.93 ppg
Rantanen ELC production: 0.87 ppg

Rantanen's jump in production also coincided with Mackinnon exploding in production. Tavares had a similar effect on Marner. However...I highly doubt anyone here including you would say Mackinnon is worse than Tavares so why did Rantanen perform worse than Marner despite being deployed with a much better center? (Tavares is great, in the 10-14 range of 1C's in the league but Mackinnon is battling McDavid for best player in the game, it's not close).

 

[Stephen]

Also the 10th highest scoring player in the NHL over the last 2yrs. And the youngest of those 10.

So yeah, an overpayment but still not a big deal.

Over time I’m appreciating the fact that the Matthews Marner etc duo is producing a kind of superstar soft power for Toronto which Kyle Dubas is using attract decent free agents at league minimum prices on the premise of a cup pursuit. So there’s value in that and a way to average down those high salaries. Whether or not the Thornton, Vesey, Bogosian or Simmonds signings will work out is another matter, but I do appreciate that they can work with it and are not completely hamstrung.

That said, I wouldn’t sign off on either of those deals being great value or comparable to anything around the league. I can live with the sticker price but don’t like it when people try to oversell it.

 

[zeke]

Marner ELC production: 0.93 ppg
Rantanen ELC production: 0.87 ppg

Rantanen's jump in production also coincided with Mackinnon exploding in production. Tavares had a similar effect on Marner. However...I highly doubt anyone here including you would say Mackinnon is worse than Tavares so why did Rantanen perform worse than Marner despite being deployed with a much better center? (Tavares is great, in the 10-14 range of 1C's in the league but Mackinnon is battling McDavid for best player in the game, it's not close).

Also, Rantanen was a year older, and was used much more favorably.

Even Strength

Rantanen .54ppg
Marner .63ppg

Power Play

Rantanen .33ppg (3:23toi)
Marner .29ppg (2:23toi)

 

[Stephen]

Before anyone can answer that, are you capable of understanding that contracts are essentially tied to % of the cap? Kane imo is the closest comparable (I do agree Marner is overpaid, he shouldn't have gotten more than 9.5-10 but it's better to overpay your top guys than giving that spare money to useless parts of your roster like other teams have done.

Patrick Kane Post ELC cap hit% - 10.6%
Mitch Marner Post ELC cap hit% - 13.4%
Alex Ovechkin Post ELC cap hit% - MUCH HIGHER

Kane ELC production - 0.94 ppg
Marner ELC production - 0.93 ppg

Although Kane is even more impressive considering he came into the NHL right after the draft whereas Marner was sent back to London as the Leafs were tanking for Matthews his first season post-draft.

I’m capable of understanding cap percentages just fine, I’m not going down

1) the rabbit hole of a Marner vs Kane vs Ovechkin being roughly comparable as players during their ELCs based on the flimsiest evidence of PPG averages.

2) the mental gymnastics required to believe that 13.4% is similar to 10.6%.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Not sure how Rantanen contract had any bearing on Marner's contract considering it was signed afterwards.

It obviously wasn't used as a basis (I suspect Kane was utilized as the primary comparable for both), but the important thing is that they align properly, and they do.

 

[zeke]

Over time I’m appreciating the fact that the Matthews Marner etc duo is producing a kind of superstar soft power for Toronto which Kyle Dubas is using attract decent free agents at league minimum prices on the premise of a cup pursuit. So there’s value in that and a way to average down those high salaries. Whether or not the Thornton, Vesey, Bogosian or Simmonds signings will work out is another matter, but I do appreciate that they can work with it and are not completely hamstrung.

That said, I wouldn’t sign off on either of those deals being great value or comparable to anything around the league. I can live with the sticker price but don’t like it when people try to oversell it.

I don't even put them in the same category tbh.

Matthews is one of the top-5 players in hockey. Literally comparable to any other player in the league. His deal is excellent.

Marner is also very good, but his deal was always a decent overpayment.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Marner ELC production: 0.93 ppg
Rantanen ELC production: 0.87 ppg

Rantanen's jump in production also coincided with Mackinnon exploding in production. Tavares had a similar effect on Marner. However...I highly doubt anyone here including you would say Mackinnon is worse than Tavares so why did Rantanen perform worse than Marner despite being deployed with a much better center? (Tavares is great, in the 10-14 range of 1C's in the league but Mackinnon is battling McDavid for best player in the game, it's not close).

I'm going to be devils advocate here.

How do we know that MacKinnon didn't explode because of playing with Rantanen not vise versa? That is what all the stats seems to show and what I've seen multiple Avs fans say. MacKinnon wasn't produce elite numbers until he played with a high skill level winger in Rantanen it looks like. Then he seemed to mature and find his game.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

It obviously wasn't used as a basis (I suspect Kane was utilized as the primary comparable for both), but the important thing is that they align properly, and they do.

I imagine Rantanen contract would have looked very different if Marner hadn't already signed him. Rantanen clearly used Marner's contract as a basis.