All Purpose Mitch Marner Talk II

[Ziggdiezan]

Also, Rantanen was a year older, and was used much more favorably.

Even Strength

Rantanen .54ppg
Marner .63ppg

Power Play

Rantanen .33ppg (3:23toi)
Marner .29ppg (2:23toi)

Didn't Rantanen/Marner get drafted the same year and play the first full season in the NHL the same year?

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I’m capable of understanding cap percentages just fine, I’m not going down

1) the rabbit hole of a Marner vs Kane vs Ovechkin being roughly comparable as players during their ELCs based on the flimsiest evidence of PPG averages.

2) the mental gymnastics required to believe that 13.4% is similar to 10.6%.

Ya basically a 25% difference so very substantial

 

[zeke]

Didn't Rantanen/Marner get drafted the same year and play the first full season in the NHL the same year?

Ok born the previous year but "only" 7 months older.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I imagine Rantanen contract would have looked very different if Marner hadn't already signed him

There's no reason to think this. They both align well with Kane, as well as other post-ELC contracts.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Ok born the previous year but "only" 7 months older.

I didn't even realize they were born in different years but being draft eligible the same year means that doesn't effect their development path/progression

 

[Gary Nylund]

They signed a lesser player for less money. I guess that's a good job maybe.

Or are you talking about the contract they gave MacKinnon after back to back 50pt seasons?

Marner ELC production: 0.93 ppg
Rantanen ELC production: 0.87 ppg

Rantanen's jump in production also coincided with Mackinnon exploding in production. Tavares had a similar effect on Marner. However...I highly doubt anyone here including you would say Mackinnon is worse than Tavares so why did Rantanen perform worse than Marner despite being deployed with a much better center? (Tavares is great, in the 10-14 range of 1C's in the league but Mackinnon is battling McDavid for best player in the game, it's not close).

The specifics have been done to death so I'll just say that I'm with the overwhelming majority in saying Marner's contract was an overpayment, Dubas should have done better and I'll leave it at that.

I don't even put them in the same category tbh.

Matthews is one of the top-5 players in hockey. Literally comparable to any other player in the league. His deal is excellent.

Marner is also very good, but his deal was always a decent overpayment.

Agreed.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

There's no reason to think this. They both align well with Kane.

I mean neither did remotely close to what Kane did playoff wise. I also imagine Kane was closer to being the number 1 scorer in the league than either guy (Marner or Rantenen) as league scoring has gone up the last few years so comparing PPG or rate statistics over large time frames can be misleading. Kane should have be the ceiling and Marner was paid almost 25% more. That just doesn't add up.

However I don't want to get into a Marner vs Kane debate as im limited on time today so we will agree to disagree

 

[Stephen]

Ya basically a 25% difference so very substantial

Also interesting that Dekes didn’t use Steven Stamkos as a comparable if we want to jump in the way back machine. His cap % was over 11% so closer to Marner’s number, but you can’t rationalize away a 50 goal season on an ELC quite so easily.

 

[Stephen]

However I don't want to get into a Marner vs Kane debate as im limited on time today so we will agree to disagree

This is probably the most reasonable position to take because Marner vs Kane already feels like shaky ground if we want to factor in all the success Chicago had during Kane’s ELC.

In summary, some people like the Marner contract much more than others but we can all live with it for now. There is a lot of growth potential in Marner’s game which we need to see to keep growing as a contender and to give management credit they have shown some creativity and agility to average down from their higher AAVs.

 

[Notsince67]

Also interesting that Dekes didn’t use Steven Stamkos as a comparable if we want to jump in the way back machine. His cap % was over 11% so closer to Marner’s number, but you can’t rationalize away a 50 goal season on an ELC quite so easily.

Tampa contract comparables are a pretty flimsy rigging of an argument. You know why and you know better.

 

[Stephen]

Tampa contract comparables are a pretty flimsy rigging of an argument. You know why and you know better.

Are you referring to the fact that they are a Stanley Cup winning franchise or the state tax? What’s the state tax in Illinois?

 

[Notsince67]

Are you referring to the fact that they are a Stanley Cup winning franchise or the state tax? What’s the state tax in Illinois?

Because for whatever reason, their salaries are pretty much below everyone elses...I wont get into a moot reason as to why but it stand to reason they have a distinctive signing advantage over all other teams.

 

[BAM]

I’m capable of understanding cap percentages just fine, I’m not going down

1) the rabbit hole of a Marner vs Kane vs Ovechkin being roughly comparable as players during their ELCs based on the flimsiest evidence of PPG averages.

2) the mental gymnastics required to believe that 13.4% is similar to 10.6%.

Did you completely ignore my point saying that I believe Marner is overpaid?

Marner and Ovechkin are not in the same class of players...Kane and Marner? LOL you're better than this.

 

[BAM]

I'm going to be devils advocate here.

How do we know that MacKinnon didn't explode because of playing with Rantanen not vise versa? That is what all the stats seems to show and what I've seen multiple Avs fans say. MacKinnon wasn't produce elite numbers until he played with a high skill level winger in Rantanen it looks like. Then he seemed to mature and find his game.

Maybe because:

1. Mackinnon was the 1st overall pick and one of the most hyped in years...this is what everyone thought he was going to be.

2. Mackinnon had the 3rd best D1 rookie year of the 2010's after Matthews and McDavid. Long before Rantanen was an NHL player. I was on this site back then...imagine if Matthews was on any other team how hyped he would be by HF...that was Mackinnon.

Mackinnon went from a career high of 63 points in 82 games to 97 points in 74 games his first season playing full time with Rantanen, a 34 point jump. Rantanen went from a career high of 38 points in 75 games to 84 points in 81 games, a 46 point jump.

 

[BAM]

Also interesting that Dekes didn’t use Steven Stamkos as a comparable if we want to jump in the way back machine. His cap % was over 11% so closer to Marner’s number, but you can’t rationalize away a 50 goal season on an ELC quite so easily.

Are you incapable of understanding context?

You're comparing Marner and his linemates to Stamkos having Art Ross winning MSL from day 1.

 

[Sypher04]

I really don't think the team success Chicago had during Kane's ELC factors into this discussion at all. There is a long long history of star players being paid big money without team success yet, and comparably to or even more than players on successful ones. Team success really doesn't drive individual player value. Agents have not and would never stand for that.

 

[horner]

I agree that all the Maple Leafs players need to be better in the playoffs.

However I think Marner should do better than what we have seen from him because in my opinion he's Toronto's best play maker.

With the exception of his 9 points in seven games against Boston in 2018 which was his best playoff year so far, here are his playoff stats the previous years.

2017: 4 Points in six games against Washington which totaled 1 goal and 3 assists.

2019: 4 Points in seven games against Boston which totaled 2 goals and 2 assists.

2020: 4 Points in five games played against Columbus which totaled 0 goals and 4 assists.

Marner 25 gp 21 pts
Mathews 25 gp 19 pts

Splitting hairs they all have to be better .

They all need to bring it to another level .

Not just points there whole game.

Point TBay 23 gp 33 pts
It's not just about goals and assist for this player .
It's about his whole game come playoff time , he steps it up another level same as Marchant from Boston.
It's like know one is going to beat them.

We don't have that yet .
This year I hope

 

[Iapyi]

Not sure how Rantanen contract had any bearing on Marner's contract considering it was signed afterwards.

This is a basic fact that escapes many.

Talking about "comparables" is a weak media type approach that doesn't recognize numerous variables.

 

[Brobust]

Guys, let's root for our players. Let's hope for their success.

 

[LeafsNation75]

The post I quoted was referring to playoff points.

In 2017 against both Matthews and Rielly were T-1 with 5 points through six games. However Matthews is listed ahead of Rielly because of the 5 goals he scored.

In 2018 Marner was 1st with 9 points through seven games against Boston.

In 2019 Matthews was 1st with 6 points through seven against Boston.

In 2020 Matthews was 1st with 6 points through five games against Columbus.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Marner 25 gp 21 pts
Mathews 25 gp 19 pts

Splitting hairs they all have to be better .

They all need to bring it to another level .

Not just points there whole game.

Point TBay 23 gp 33 pts
It's not just about goals and assist for this player .
It's about his whole game come playoff time , he steps it up another level same as Marchant from Boston.
It's like know one is going to beat them.

We don't have that yet .
This year I hope

Prior to the Lightning and Point winning a Stanley Cup last season, at least they went as far as the Eastern Conference Final in 2018, where as Marner and Matthews have not yet won a playoff series. So let's hope that changes in 2021.

 

[zeke]

I didn't even realize they were born in different years but being draft eligible the same year means that doesn't effect their development path/progression

i disagree tbh.

nhl draft eligibility date cutoff is unique and year of birth is used for most minor leagues.

personally, i always use Y.O.B.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Patrick Kane Post ELC cap hit% - 10.6%
Mitch Marner Post ELC cap hit% - 13.4%

Actually, their signing cap hit percentages were:

Marner: 13.37% x 6 years
Kane: 11.09% x 5 years

Kane ELC production - 0.94 ppg
Marner ELC production - 0.93 ppg

And their pre-signing points/GP were...

Marner: 0.93
Kane: 0.89

And primary points/GP...

Marner: 0.71
Kane: 0.67

And this despite Kane having a massive production advantage. When we look at more accurate metrics than per-game, and consider things like PP TOI which skews raw production...

ES Points/60

Marner: 2.56
Kane: 2.12

ES Primary Points/60

Marner: 2.05
Kane: 1.60

ES Goals/60

Marner: 0.86
Kane: 0.74

PP Points/60

Marner: 7.19
Kane: 5.67

PP Primary Points/60

Marner: 4.69
Kane: 4.21

PP Goals/60

Kane: 1.70
Marner: 1.56

Marner was clearly the superior player, and deserved a bigger contract.

I mean neither did remotely close to what Kane did playoff wise.

Nobody signs contracts based on how many rounds their team won, especially as a teenager, though even with that said, Kane had not really shown anything more than Marner. Their P/GP in the playoffs was essentially identical, and Marner had done it against tougher opponents, defences, and goalies, over a bigger sample, with much less PP time. When Kane had faced an opponent like Marner had faced, Kane was horrible and Chicago lost in 5.

I also imagine Kane was closer to being the number 1 scorer in the league

He actually wasn't. Even though Kane got more PP time (including relative to the league) than Marner, their P/GP rankings over their pre-signing periods were:

Marner: 26th
Kane: 36th

Marner is even more ahead in ranking when the impacts of PP TOI are considered.

Kane should have be the ceiling and Marner was paid almost 25% more. That just doesn't add up.

There is zero justification for Kane being a "ceiling". Kane is below the floor. Marner was better in basically every way, in some ways quite substantially. Marner's contract was also an extra year. It actually adds up quite well when valuable information is not excluded for no reason.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Before anyone can answer that, are you capable of understanding that contracts are essentially tied to % of the cap? Kane imo is the closest comparable (I do agree Marner is overpaid, he shouldn't have gotten more than 9.5-10 but it's better to overpay your top guys than giving that spare money to useless parts of your roster like other teams have done.

Patrick Kane Post ELC cap hit% - 10.6%
Mitch Marner Post ELC cap hit% - 13.4%
Alex Ovechkin Post ELC cap hit% - MUCH HIGHER

Kane ELC production - 0.94 ppg
Marner ELC production - 0.93 ppg

Although Kane is even more impressive considering he came into the NHL right after the draft whereas Marner was sent back to London as the Leafs were tanking for Matthews his first season post-draft.

Another difference between Marner's contract and Kane's contract was this.

Kane signed for 5 years at $6.3 million AAV and on his resume he had already won the Calder Trophy.

Marner while signing for 1 more year got $10.893 million AAV and hasn't won any awards yet at the NHL level. The one thing he did better than Kane was scoring 94 points in the 3rd and final year of his ELC, where as Kane scored 88 in his 3rd year.

However that 3rd year of Kane's ELC was the 2009-10 Season and that was when Chicago defeated Philadelphia to win the 2010 Stanley Cup.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Actually, their signing cap hit percentages were:

Marner: 13.37% x 6 years
Kane: 11.09% x 5 years

More people actually focus on what their AAV's were at that time.

Marner: $10.893 million AAV x 6 years.

Kane: $6.3 million AAV x 5 years.