All Purpose Mitch Marner Talk II

[LeafsNation75]

Well on here yeah,of course. Nothing is good enough on the boards bro. As soon as a loos comes after five wins its trade the entire team ha. People are happy to angry from one period to the next ha.
Eichel takes the same cap% and his team has never had a sniff of the playoffs. They started that rebuild before us too. First round exits sure but look at the teams doing it. Washington cup Champion,Bruins Cup champion. Columbus great team game. The cap hit is not a problem causing any lack of competitiveness. Its not a issue. Rantanen makes less and produces less. He’s produced and has driven the play most of the timevsince being a Leaf. On the whole dubas should have said $10,000,000 max for Matthews and Marner. Matthews got a goal scorers premium and Marner got a stupid bonus package Lou burned him on and gave up a extra year of Ufa over Matthews. $400,000 to$500,0000 over paid max
I could find that amount of over pay for 1 player on every team in the league. It’s nothing.

I completely agree that Matthews should have taken a similar contract that Eichel got from Buffalo, although Matthews did deserve more money because he has had a better NHL career with team success and personal success. His $11.634 million AAV would look a lot better on an 8 year contract instead of a 5 year contract.

Marner should have signed for no more than $9.5 million AAV and got talked into accepting 8 years, instead of signing for 6 years at $10.893 million AAV.

 

[Notsince67]

I completely agree that Matthews should have taken a similar contract that Eichel got from Buffalo, although Matthews did deserve more money because he has had a better NHL career with team success and personal success. His $11.634 million AAV would look a lot better on an 8 year contract instead of a 5 year contract.

Marner should have signed for no more than $9.5 million AAV and got talked into accepting 8 years, instead of signing for 6 years at $10.893 million AAV.

This is how we get into these stupid arguments. Dumb valuations which extend to a question on whether he gets paid too much or not. 9.5mm for 8 years is not anywhere near a fair value based on his elc performance. At a minimum, perhaps 5 years but not 8.

 

[ToneDog]

This is how we get into these stupid arguments. Dumb valuations which extend to a question on whether he gets paid too much or not. 9.5mm for 8 years is not anywhere near a fair value based on his elc performance. At a minimum, perhaps 5 years but not 8.

As good a playmaker and penalty killer Mitch is, this team cannot afford an AAV of $10.893M for a 16-25 goal winger when they are paying their 2 top Cs $22.634M per. Yup he set up JT beautifully on his way to 47 goals but IMO he needs to find the back of the net at least 2x as often in order get this team to the next level.

 

[Dekes For Days]

As good a playmaker and penalty killer Mitch is, this team cannot afford an AAV of $10.893M for a 16-25 goal winger

Marner has never paced for less than 20 goals, and it's meaningless to evaluate playmakers based on goals. Marner is an amazing player and a huge contributor to the team, and his best years are still ahead of him.

 

[ToneDog]

Marner has never paced for less than 20 goals, and it's meaningless to evaluate playmakers based on goals. Marner is an amazing player and a huge contributor to the team, and he will only get better.

Agreed he is an amazing player (most times) but this teams needs more goals from somebody not named Matty, Johnny or Willie. We saw what happens to Leafs' goalscoring when the oppositions shuts down these 3. Somebody has to step up and who better than a winger making 8 figures? No way should Hyman be scoring more goals than Mitch and no way should Willie be scoring 2x as many as Mitch.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Agreed he is an amazing player (most times) but this teams needs more goals from somebody not named Matty, Johnny or Willie. We saw what happens to Leafs' goalscoring when the oppositions shuts down these 3.

Suggesting Marner needs to turn into a 40+ goal scorer for this team to get to the next level is completely baseless. He is a playmaker, and the Leafs are already consistently one of the best scoring teams in the league, with some of the best goal-scorers in the league. Nobody has shut down our star players.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Suggesting Marner needs to turn into a 40+ goal scorer for this team to get to the next level is completely baseless. He is a playmaker, and the Leafs are already consistently one of the best scoring teams in the league, with some of the best goal-scorers in the league. Nobody has shut down our star players.

I agree that Marner is the Leafs playmaker and chances are he won't score 40+ goals. However since he's career high is 26 goals which he got during the 2018-19 Season, it would not be a surprise if can score at least 30 goals.

 

[LeafsNation75]

This is how we get into these stupid arguments. Dumb valuations which extend to a question on whether he gets paid too much or not. 9.5mm for 8 years is not anywhere near a fair value based on his elc performance. At a minimum, perhaps 5 years but not 8.

I said this before and I will say it again. My thinking that Marner should have got 8 years and $9.5 million AAV was based on the contract extension Nikita Kucherov got from Tampa Bay after he got 100 points in the 2017-18 Season. Marner signed his contract after getting 94 points in the 2018-19 Season, along with the fact they both play Right Wing. So that's why I thought it was the best comparable at the time and I don't care about previous ELC and what their next contracts looked like.

 

[ToneDog]

Suggesting Marner needs to turn into a 40+ goal scorer for this team to get to the next level is completely baseless. He is a playmaker, and the Leafs are already consistently one of the best scoring teams in the league, with some of the best goal-scorers in the league. Nobody has shut down our star players.

What do you call what CBJs did to our stars ?? Deny it all you want but there will be games, especially in the playoffs where they are shut down. If Mitch wants to get to 100 points he is going to have to score at least 30 goals and doing so will keep the opposition honest, given his pass first rep.

 

[LeafsNation75]

What do you call what CBJs did to our stars ?? Deny it all you want but there will be games, especially in the playoffs where they are shut down. If Mitch wants to get to 100 points he is going to have to score at least 30 goals and doing so will keep the opposition honest, given his pass first rep.

When you look at breakdown of the 4 total points Marner had against Columbus this is when they happened.

In Game 3 he had the primary assist on William Nylander's goal that gave Toronto a 2-0 lead.

In Game 4 his two secondary assists was on their 1st and 2nd goals when Toronto was playing 6v5. His third assist of that game was on Matthews game winning goal in overtime.

 

[Dekes For Days]

What do you call what CBJs did to our stars ??

Columbus didn't do anything to our stars. They played well against the best defensive team in the league, and they were our highest producing players. Our depth scoring is primarily what dried up.

If Mitch wants to get to 100 points he is going to have to score at least 30 goals and doing so will keep the opposition honest, given his pass first rep.

Marner doesn't need 30 goals to get to 100 points, but 30 goals is also very different from what you suggested he needed to do. 30 goals is a more reasonable target.

 

[ToneDog]

When you look at breakdown of the 4 total points Marner had against Columbus this is when they happened.

In Game 3 he had the primary assist on William Nylander's goal that gave Toronto a 2-0 lead.

In Game 4 his two secondary assists was on their 1st and 2nd goals when Toronto was playing 6v5. His third assist of that game was on Matthews game winning goal in overtime.

Matty's OT game winner was 5v4. At the end of the day they were shut out twice in 5 games and for 50+ minutes of game #4. If that is not being shut down, not sure what is. You can bet the Habs are not going to try to outscore us if we meet in the playoffs.

 

[ToneDog]

Columbus didn't do anything to our stars. They played well against the best defensive team in the league, and they were our highest producing players. Our depth scoring is primarily what dried up.

Marner doesn't need 30 goals to get to 100 points, but 30 goals is also very different from what you suggested he needed to do. 30 goals is a more reasonable target.

I was thinking 2 x 16 = 32 (40 is less likely) which I agree is very reasonable and will put teams on notice.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Actually, their signing cap hit percentages were:

Marner: 13.37% x 6 years
Kane: 11.09% x 5 years

And their pre-signing points/GP were...

Marner: 0.93
Kane: 0.89

And primary points/GP...

Marner: 0.71
Kane: 0.67

And this despite Kane having a massive production advantage. When we look at more accurate metrics than per-game, and consider things like PP TOI which skews raw production...

ES Points/60

Marner: 2.56
Kane: 2.12

ES Primary Points/60

Marner: 2.05
Kane: 1.60

ES Goals/60

Marner: 0.86
Kane: 0.74

PP Points/60

Marner: 7.19
Kane: 5.67

PP Primary Points/60

Marner: 4.69
Kane: 4.21

PP Goals/60

Kane: 1.70
Marner: 1.56

Marner was clearly the superior player, and deserved a bigger contract.

Nobody signs contracts based on how many rounds their team won, especially as a teenager, though even with that said, Kane had not really shown anything more than Marner. Their P/GP in the playoffs was essentially identical, and Marner had done it against tougher opponents, defences, and goalies, over a bigger sample, with much less PP time. When Kane had faced an opponent like Marner had faced, Kane was horrible and Chicago lost in 5.

He actually wasn't. Even though Kane got more PP time (including relative to the league) than Marner, their P/GP rankings over their pre-signing periods were:

Marner: 26th
Kane: 36th

Marner is even more ahead in ranking when the impacts of PP TOI are considered.

There is zero justification for Kane being a "ceiling". Kane is below the floor. Marner was better in basically every way, in some ways quite substantially. Marner's contract was also an extra year. It actually adds up quite well when valuable information is not excluded for no reason.

It is difficult to compare the two directly as Marner signed his contract after the 3rd year of his ELC while Kane signed his December of his 3rd year after a quick/hot start to the season. Kane also entered the league a year earlier so you could easily make the argument it is important to compare their D+1 vs D+1, D+2 vs D+2 etc.

For example looking at their first 2 years as cant use 3 years for comparison as Kane already signed his contract, it is ignoring Kane is younger which is a pretty big factor but whatever:

Marner: 39th and 39th top scorer
Kane: 32nd and 40th.

Slight edge to Kane, closer than I thought though. Kane also had a very good deep playoff push and was a recent 1st overall which generally inflates AAV.

I would be very interested to see those rate statistics only comparing their first 2 years as obviously just looking at scoring position isn't a full enough picture.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Matty's OT game winner was 5v4. At the end of the day they were shut out twice in 5 games and for 50+ minutes of game #4. If that is not being shut down, not sure what is. You can bet the Habs are not going to try to outscore us if we meet in the playoffs.

Yes I forgot that Matthews overtime goal in Game 4 was scored on the power play, so that meant all three of Marner's assists that night did not happen when playing at 5v5.

In fact I just looked it up and Marner's assist in Game 3 on Nylander's goal was also scored on the power play, so that means all of his 4 total points happened at 5v4 or 6v5 and never at 5v5.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I was thinking 2 x 16 = 32 (40 is less likely) which I agree is very reasonable and will put teams on notice.

He scored 16 in 59 games though. Your claim was that he "needs to find the back of the net at least 2x as often in order get this team to the next level". If he scored 2 times as often last season when he scored 16 goals, he would have been scoring at a 45 goal pace.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

i disagree tbh.

nhl draft eligibility date cutoff is unique and year of birth is used for most minor leagues.

personally, i always use Y.O.B.

That is fair, I get why you would think that way but the draft eligibility date cutoff determine when they can play in the NHL so is extremely important too.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Maybe because:

1. Mackinnon was the 1st overall pick and one of the most hyped in years...this is what everyone thought he was going to be.

2. Mackinnon had the 3rd best D1 rookie year of the 2010's after Matthews and McDavid. Long before Rantanen was an NHL player. I was on this site back then...imagine if Matthews was on any other team how hyped he would be by HF...that was Mackinnon.

Mackinnon went from a career high of 63 points in 82 games to 97 points in 74 games his first season playing full time with Rantanen, a 34 point jump. Rantanen went from a career high of 38 points in 75 games to 84 points in 81 games, a 46 point jump.

Your comparing a 34 point jump between Mackinnon's 4th season and 5th season. The 46 point jump was between Rantanen's 1st and 2nd season. I would think it is a lot more likely for a player to naturally increase the point totals in their first few seasons as they gets used to the league and develop. On the otherhand Mackinnon was static at 60 point pace or below for 4 season and then exploded. That is very irregular.

The fact Mackinnon exploded when he started to play with Rantanen is quite telling. It looks like it allowed Mackinnon to find his game.

Again just being devils advocate + I've seen a bunch of Avs fans say similar things on their board during Rantanen's 2nd full season.

Edit: it is also a little silly to compare Mackinnon's best season (his rookie season) rather than the season before he exploded where he put up 53 points in 82 games. This means Mackinnon point totals increased by 44 not 34 points.

 

[LeafsNation75]

He scored 16 in 59 games though. Your claim was that he "needs to find the back of the net at least 2x as often in order get this team to the next level". If he scored 2 times as often last season when he scored 16 goals, he would have been scoring at a 45 goal pace.

The reason why Marner only had 16 goals last season was because he missed 11 games due to that high ankle sprain. When he's 100% healthy and it's a full 82 game schedule he can score at least 25+ goals since had 26 goals 1 year earlier during the 2018-19 Season.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Yes I forgot that Matthews overtime goal in Game 4 was scored on the power play, so that meant all three of Marner's assists that night did not happen when playing at 5v5.

In fact I just looked it up and Marner's assist in Game 3 on Nylander's goal was also scored on the power play, so that means all of his 4 total points happened at 5v4 or 6v5 and never at 5v5.

Doesn't surprise me, Mitch had probably his worst season as a leaf impact wise. Put up enough points but wasn't nearly his usual electric self, gave the puck away a crazy amount etc. Contract talks got to him i think and I'm expecting a much better Marner this year.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Doesn't surprise me, Mitch had probably his worst season as a leaf impact wise. Put up enough points but wasn't nearly his usual electric self, gave the puck away a crazy amount etc. Contract talks got to him i think and I'm expecting a much better Marner this year.

It also did not help when Marner suffered that high ankle sprain and missed 11 games during the regular season.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It is difficult to compare the two directly as Marner signed his contract after the 3rd year of his ELC while Kane signed his December of his 3rd year after a quick/hot start to the season.

If we were excluding comparables whenever any tiny detail was different, nobody would ever have any comparables. That's not a very big difference in time of signing. Also, Kane was hotter after signing that season than prior. The best we can do is consider what each player did prior to signing, and their respective situations, and then consider any adjustments that might be necessary due to discrepancies.

Kane also entered the league a year earlier so you could easily make the argument it is important to compare their D+1 vs D+1, D+2 vs D+2 etc.

You could make the argument that Kane deserves a small boost in that comparison because his production is from a slightly younger age, but you can't just exclude things that Marner did prior to signing. You'd be excluding one of the best pre-signing seasons in the history of the cap era, which is pretty relevant to the contract.

Though for the record, through their first two years and their 3rd year up to Kane's signing date, Marner still produced better and ranked better, even though Kane got to play primarily with his team's other star players during that time, and Marner didn't.

Kane also had a very good deep playoff push and was a recent 1st overall which generally inflates AAV.

Kane was not better in the playoffs, and draft position does not impact contract valuation.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Doesn't surprise me, Mitch had probably his worst season as a leaf impact wise. Put up enough points but wasn't nearly his usual electric self, gave the puck away a crazy amount etc. Contract talks got to him i think and I'm expecting a much better Marner this year.

I agree, a lot of points but overall, left me wanting a lot more. I would only add that in the playoffs when it matters the most, his play was ... disappointing.

I hope it was the contract talks, I dunno though. I mean by the time the playoffs (or playins) arrived, you'd think he'd be over that by then. But whatever, it's a new season and if he plays like an 11 million dollar man and figures prominently in a deep playoff run then all will be forgiven.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Kane was not better in the playoffs, and draft position does not impact contract valuation.

When Chicago won the Stanley Cup in 2010, 2013, and 2015 these were Kane's playoff stats.

2010: 10 Goals, 18 Assists, 28 Points in 22 games played.

2013: 9 Goals, 10 Assists, 19 Points in 23 games played, plus he also won the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP.

2015: 11 Goals, 12 Assists, 23 Points in 23 games played.

Also please don't give me that excuse how Kane did all that after he signed his 5 year $6.3 million AAV contract and his current 8 year $10.5 million AAV contract before winning in 2015. If your going to say Marner was better in the playoffs you need to look at everything Kane has done compared to him.

So far Marner's best playoffs was in 2018 against Boston when he had 9 Points in seven games played.

 

[Dekes For Days]

When Chicago won the Stanley Cup in 2010, 2013, and 2015 these were Kane's playoff stats.

None of those happened prior to Kane signing. They are irrelevant. The only playoffs Kane had prior to signing was 2008-2009, and he was not better than Marner.