All Purpose Mitch Marner Talk II

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As good a playmaker and penalty killer Mitch is, this team cannot afford an AAV of $10.893M for a 16-25 goal winger when they are paying their 2 top Cs $22.634M per. Yup he set up JT beautifully on his way to 47 goals but IMO he needs to find the back of the net at least 2x as often in order get this team to the next level.
Did you read my post?
 
I said this before and I will say it again. My thinking that Marner should have got 8 years and $9.5 million AAV was based on the contract extension Nikita Kucherov got from Tampa Bay after he got 100 points in the 2017-18 Season. Marner signed his contract after getting 94 points in the 2018-19 Season, along with the fact they both play Right Wing. So that's why I thought it was the best comparable at the time and I don't care about previous ELC and what their next contracts looked like.
Well stop saying it because it is wrong
 
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So Thornton is the setup guy added to the Matthews line now. That activates Marner to go to the net and shoot more. Keefe said this himself, i agree. Marner needs to go to the net more, keefe think that also.
He needs to shoot more and needs to go to the net more. Thats what his game needs and it makes no difference how much he makes. He needs a better shot,go to the net more,get stronger. Big deal. Tell me a player that isn’t working on something to improve their game.
He will likely be a 30 ish goal scorer soon. He has to pass and it becomes predictable if he over does it. He’s been over doing it. Now he will be going to the net more. His numbers in goals will go up when he activates more in to the paint. He will draw some penalties doing it too which will help. He’s not drawing anything over on the wall.
He needs to adjust his game and will.
 
Actually, their signing cap hit percentages were:

Marner: 13.37% x 6 years
Kane: 11.09% x 5 years

Patrick Kane's post ELC deal is completely inappropriate as a comparison to Mitch Marner for a number of reasons.

It was signed 10 years prior to Marner's, under a completely different CBA when the player to owner split was 57% to 43% vs 50% to 50% now, and has more than a 2% difference in cap percentage as you outlined, and even then you're looking at a cap hit difference of $6.3 million to $10.893 million.

Other than superficially similar statistics based on PPG averages, there's nothing suitable about this comparison. And you had to go back ten years to find this.
 
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None of those happened prior to Kane signing. They are irrelevant. The only playoffs Kane had prior to signing was 2008-2009, and he was not better than Marner.
Even in the 2009 playoffs the Blackhawks still advanced to the Western Conference Final, with Kane getting 9 goals, 5 assists for 14 points. That's still better than Marner's 9 points in seven games against Boston in 2018.
 
In other Marner related news I was just looking at his career stats and at some point this season he's going to get 300 points for his NHL career. Right now he has 291 points with 300 games played.
 
It was signed 10 years prior to Marner's, under a completely different CBA when the player to owner split was 57% to 43% vs 50% to 50% now, and has more than a 2% difference in cap percentage as you outlined, and even then you're looking at a cap hit difference of $6.3 million to $10.893 million.
Not sure why you think the CBA split matters in this discussion. The gap in time is only an issue when you do something like post raw AAVs for some reason, instead of the cap hit percentages that are used in valuation. The 2% gap in cap hit percentage is to account for the fact that Marner was a significantly better player and got an extra year of term. Nothing you stated makes Kane a bad comparable, but I also did a more thorough breakdown in the Dubas thread, using your own chosen comparables.
Even in the 2009 playoffs the Blackhawks still advanced to the Western Conference Final, with Kane getting 9 goals, 5 assists for 14 points. That's still better than Marner's 9 points in seven games against Boston in 2018.
Their P/GP in the playoffs was essentially identical at time of signing (0.88 P/GP vs. 0.85 P/GP), and Marner had done it against tougher opponents, defences, and goalies, over a bigger sample, with much less PP time. When Kane had faced an opponent like Marner had been facing, Kane was horrible and Chicago lost in 5.
 
Their P/GP in the playoffs was essentially identical at time of signing (0.88 P/GP vs. 0.85 P/GP), and Marner had done it against tougher opponents, defences, and goalies, over a bigger sample, with much less PP time. When Kane had faced an opponent like Marner had been facing, Kane was horrible and Chicago lost in 5.
At least Kane advanced to the Western Conference Final the first time he was in the playoffs, because I wish Toronto can get out of the first round.
 
At least Kane advanced to the Western Conference Final the first time he was in the playoffs, because I wish Toronto can get out of the first round.
We'd all like to get out of the first round, but player contracts are not based on what round a team got to. Chicago also lost quite convincingly that year when they ran into the type of team we had been facing.
 
At least Kane advanced to the Western Conference Final the first time he was in the playoffs, because I wish Toronto can get out of the first round.
Chicago was absolutely stacked... Toews, Kane, ladd, byfuglien, Bolland, Sharp, Havlat, Versteeg, Brouwer on forward.... defense included Keith, Campbell, Seabrook... Khabibulin in net.

That team was much deeper and more physical than recent Leaf teams.
 
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We'd all like to get out of the first round, but player contracts are not based on what round a team got to. Chicago also lost quite convincingly that year when they ran into the type of team we had been facing.
So even though Kane had a better playoffs the first time he made it with the Blackhawks and they were able to advance, you still think Marner has been the better playoff performer even though the Leafs have not yet won a playoff series with him.
 
Chicago was absolutely stacked... Toews, Kane, ladd, byfuglien, Bolland, Sharp, Havlat, Versteeg, Brouwer on forward.... defense included Keith, Campbell, Seabrook... Khabibulin in net.

That team was much deeper and more physical than recent Leaf teams.
Chicago between 2010 - 2015 is what we want Toronto to become.
 
So even though Kane had a better playoffs the first time he made it with the Blackhawks and they were able to advance, you still think Marner has been the better playoff performer even though the Leafs have not yet won a playoff series with him.
Kane did not have a better playoffs though. His team missed the playoffs the first year and then his team advanced the next year against easier opponents than Toronto faced, before having a worse loss than Toronto when they encountered a similar team.
 
Kane did not have a better playoffs though. His team missed the playoffs the first year and then his team advanced the next year against easier opponents than Toronto faced, before having a worse loss than Toronto when they encountered a similar team.
So even though Kane and the Blackhawks missed the playoffs in his rookie season, despite making it next year and advancing to the Western Conference Finals and putting up better numbers than Marner did in 2018 against Boston means he wasn't as good? I can not see that logic and it's no wonder you have a reputation among non Leafs fans for crazy statements like that.

The only thing I will agree with you is that in 2017, 2018, and 2019 Toronto did face tougher opponents in Washington and Boston. However that needs to stop being an excuse, although I guess it could still be said about Washington because no one and not even the most hardcore Leafs fans predicted them to make the playoffs in 2017.
 
So even though Kane and the Blackhawks missed the playoffs in his rookie season, despite making it next year and advancing to the Western Conference Finals and putting up better numbers than Marner did in 2018 against Boston means he wasn't as good? I can not see that logic and it's no wonder you have a reputation among non Leafs fans for crazy statements like that.

The only thing I will agree with you is that in 2017, 2018, and 2019 Toronto did face tougher opponents in Washington and Boston. However that needs to stop being an excuse, although I guess it could still be said about Washington because no one and not even the most hardcore Leafs fans predicted them to make the playoffs in 2017.
There seems to be an ongoing position the the excuse for playoff performance sits on Marners shoulders. I wonder which position seems more unreasonable.
 
So even though Kane and the Blackhawks missed the playoffs in his rookie season, despite making it next year and advancing to the Western Conference Finals and putting up better numbers than Marner did in 2018 against Boston means he wasn't as good?
Kane did not put up better numbers than Marner did. You're mistaking a team accomplishment for an individual accomplishment. Their P/GP in the playoffs was essentially identical at time of signing (0.88 P/GP vs. 0.85 P/GP). Both had two series under P/GP, and one series above P/GP. The difference is that Marner had done it against tougher opponents, defences, and goalies, over a bigger sample, with much less PP time. When Kane had faced an opponent of the quality that Marner had been facing, Kane had the worst series of either of them and Chicago lost in 5.
 
Your comparing a 34 point jump between Mackinnon's 4th season and 5th season. The 46 point jump was between Rantanen's 1st and 2nd season. I would think it is a lot more likely for a player to naturally increase the point totals in their first few seasons as they gets used to the league and develop. On the otherhand Mackinnon was static at 60 point pace or below for 4 season and then exploded. That is very irregular.

The fact Mackinnon exploded when he started to play with Rantanen is quite telling. It looks like it allowed Mackinnon to find his game.

Again just being devils advocate + I've seen a bunch of Avs fans say similar things on their board during Rantanen's 2nd full season.

Edit: it is also a little silly to compare Mackinnon's best season (his rookie season) rather than the season before he exploded where he put up 53 points in 82 games. This means Mackinnon point totals increased by 44 not 34 points.

1. I referenced Mackinnon's rookie year because you acted like Mackinnon did nothing prior to Rantanen arriving. It's not Mackinnon's fault that the Avs were terrible for most of his formative years there ala Rielly and Kadri (seriously...Leaf fans should not be arguing against what having poor linemates does for your production)

2. Go make a poll on the mainboards and ask who benefits more from each other. Hint...it's not Mackinnon

3. Rantanen and Mackinnon both made a jump in production playing with each other, and since, Mackinnon has proved that he doesn't need Rantanen to produce at the level he has been.

Mackinnon's breakout actually started at the WHC and WC for Canada before his breakout year when he put up 15 points in 10 games. Anyone who watched those games could see that Mackinnon had turned a corner long before he was put with Rantanen.

You'd be hard-pressed to find anyone that believes that Rantanen benefits Mackinnon more than the other way around. There's no point further arguing this with you if this what you wanna believe. Do you seriously think Marner benefitted Tavares more than the other way around too?
 
1. I referenced Mackinnon's rookie year because you acted like Mackinnon did nothing prior to Rantanen arriving. It's not Mackinnon's fault that the Avs were terrible for most of his formative years there ala Rielly and Kadri (seriously...Leaf fans should not be arguing against what having poor linemates does for your production)

2. Go make a poll on the mainboards and ask who benefits more from each other. Hint...it's not Mackinnon

3. Rantanen and Mackinnon both made a jump in production playing with each other, and since, Mackinnon has proved that he doesn't need Rantanen to produce at the level he has been.

Mackinnon's breakout actually started at the WHC and WC for Canada before his breakout year when he put up 15 points in 10 games. Anyone who watched those games could see that Mackinnon had turned a corner long before he was put with Rantanen.

You'd be hard-pressed to find anyone that believes that Rantanen benefits Mackinnon more than the other way around. There's no point further arguing this with you if this what you wanna believe. Do you seriously think Marner benefitted Tavares more than the other way around too?
I mean he was a mid 50s point player for 4 seasons until Rantanen came along and then he suddenly is a mid 90s point player. Whether he turned a corner at the WC or he turned a corner when finally put with high end complimentary talent it is hard to say. All I know and was being devils advocate for is that Mack's production almost doubled when put with Rantanen after being stagnant (actually getting worse) for 4 years. There has to be some sort of correlation.

I think maybe it was a confidence thing and that is why he now is able to play that well without high end guys as you were saying.

Not sure where your last point came from but honestly think Marner/JT benefited each other greatly. JT had his best 5 on 5 season by far and Marner had his best season by far after showing he could play at a ppg pace the previous half season with Kadri I believe. It also showed how good JT is at adapting his play to his linemates as he was more a setup guy with Lee on his line the previous couple years
 
Kane did not put up better numbers than Marner did. You're mistaking a team accomplishment for an individual accomplishment. Their P/GP in the playoffs was essentially identical at time of signing (0.88 P/GP vs. 0.85 P/GP). Both had two series under P/GP, and one series above P/GP. The difference is that Marner had done it against tougher opponents, defences, and goalies, over a bigger sample, with much less PP time. When Kane had faced an opponent of the quality that Marner had been facing, Kane had the worst series of either of them and Chicago lost in 5.
You are ignoring the fact that Kane and Chicago still went to the Western Conference Final in 2009, where as Marner and Toronto have not yet won a playoff series since 2004.

No matter what stats you mention that might make Marner look better people won't care about them if Toronto does not get past the first round, because that's why it's stupid to say Kane wasn't as good or saying how he missed the playoffs in 2008.
 
You are ignoring the fact that Kane and Chicago still went to the Western Conference Final in 2009, where as Marner and Toronto have not yet won a playoff series since 2004.

No matter what stats you mention that might make Marner look better people won't care about them if Toronto does not get past the first round, because that's why it's stupid to say Kane wasn't as good or saying how he missed the playoffs in 2008.
He's not ignoring that fact, he's just pointing out that the team advancing a round is a TEAM accomplishment, not a personal one. To illustrate, if for example, in game 7 in 2017-18, after Marleau scored twice if Andersen was to stand on his head, save everything, and stop the Bruins from tying the game, thus allowing us to advance around, does that mean that Marner should now be worth more money?

Anyways, I don't really have any stake in a pure Marner vs. Kane debate, but conflating team success to individual success is a logical fallacy.
 
He's not ignoring that fact, he's just pointing out that the team advancing a round is a TEAM accomplishment, not a personal one. To illustrate, if for example, in game 7 in 2017-18, after Marleau scored twice if Andersen was to stand on his head, save everything, and stop the Bruins from tying the game, thus allowing us to advance around, does that mean that Marner should now be worth more money?

Anyways, I don't really have any stake in a pure Marner vs. Kane debate, but conflating team success to individual success is a logical fallacy.
I just think it's weird saying team success should not matter because history shows us Patrick Kane having a better playoffs than Marner, yet he's sticking to his guns that Marner has had better playoff performance because of reasons that have to do with point production.
 
I just think it's weird saying team success should not matter because history shows us Patrick Kane having a better playoffs than Marner, yet he's sticking to his guns that Marner has had better playoff performance because of reasons that have to do with point production.
Point production is one of the best ways a player can help his team find success in the playoffs though. Though that being said, apart from his second year, I don't think Marner's playoffs have been as strong as his point totals would suggest.
 
You are ignoring the fact that Kane and Chicago still went to the Western Conference Final in 2009, where as Marner and Toronto have not yet won a playoff series since 2004.
I'm not ignoring anything. That is a team accomplishment, not an individual one. It's not relevant to a discussion about individual player contracts. Chicago advancing further than Toronto does not equal Kane being better than Marner. Beyond that, it wasn't even all that much more impressive as a team accomplishment than what Toronto had done. Chicago advanced against weaker opponents than Toronto faced, and then when facing a similar quality of opponent, Toronto did better.
 
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