Rumor: All about Alex DeBrincat -possible trade

[SoupNazi]

Another Strickland tweet

I'd just like to see this saga end, one way or another.

 

[Henkka]

If we could unload Fabbri or Chiarot on some trade, we could add DeBrincat + Erik Karlsson (retented to 8M) after that.

And still would have 25M of cap space for next season.

Extend Seider, extend Raymond, extend Rasmussen... and go again after next round of bargains.

 

[jkutswings]

Get skilled forwards on to a scoring line with scoring line ice time and you'd be surprised.

You mean like pairing Debrincat with Larkin?

 

[norrisnick]

You mean like pairing Debrincat with Larkin?

I was thinking a 90% cheaper option.

 

[dekelikekocur]

Probably based on the Strickland tweet.

Just more clickbait bs. Someone else is reporting that Taresenko rejected all of the offers he had and fired his agent and hired a new agent.

 

[jkutswings]

I was thinking a 90% cheaper option.

I know. But sometimes one ribeye provides a better meal than a dozen sliders. It's fine if you don't think Debrincat specifically fits that saying, but sooner rather than later Detroit needs a first line caliber player to go with all the KMart blue light specials.

 

[Hen Kolland]

I was thinking a 90% cheaper option.

The 90% cheaper option? 10% of Debrincat at $8.5 million would be less than Berggren makes today on his ELC. He's likely to sign a 2-3 year bridge deal, and if he ever gets remotely close to providing the same first line output of Debrincat, you are probably paying at least 75%, and again, if it's close to Debrincat, probably 80-90% or more.

Your perspective was flawed in the beginning, is flawed now, and will continue to be flawed on the way this business world of hockey works.

You don't get to keep your prospects on an ELC salary for their entire career. They don't remain bargains forever. You pay money for performance.

 

[norrisnick]

I know. But sometimes one ribeye provides a better meal than a dozen sliders. It's fine if you don't think Debrincat specifically fits that saying, but sooner rather than later Detroit needs a first line caliber player to go with all the KMart blue light specials.

I get that. However, the Hudler example still holds true. He wasn't ever "good enough" for our top line, but then he finished top 10 in league scoring with a pair of rookie linemates in Calgary. Berggren is just as good, IMO. Give him proper linemates and ice time.

 

[saska sault]

We should just sign Tarasenko and tell Ottawa good luck.

 

[jkutswings]

I get that. However, the Hudler example still holds true. He wasn't ever "good enough" for our top line, but then he finished top 10 in league scoring with a pair of rookie linemates in Calgary. Berggren is just as good, IMO. Give him proper linemates and ice time.

I think Berggren is more of a 20-40-60 guy at his peak and Debrincat is closer to 80 points with nearly half coming from goals. But at this point we can agree to disagree.

 

[norrisnick]

The 90% cheaper option? 10% of Debrincat at $8.5 million would be less than Berggren makes today on his ELC. He's likely to sign a 2-3 year bridge deal, and if he ever gets remotely close to providing the same first line output of Debrincat, you are probably paying at least 75%, and again, if it's close to Debrincat, probably 80-90% or more.

Your perspective was flawed in the beginning, is flawed now, and will continue to be flawed on the way this business world of hockey works.

You don't get to keep your prospects on an ELC salary for their entire career. They don't remain bargains forever. You pay money for performance.

89% cheaper. My bad.

And that's fine that Berggren will get more expensive. The value provided by ELCs and 2nd contracts greatly outweigh full UFA value contracts.

Maximizing that value is more important than overpaying in a trade to then overpay for a pint sized winger.

 

[Henkka]

We should just sign Tarasenko and tell Ottawa good luck.

Yeah, should sign Tarasenko, and then trade him to Ottawa for DeBrincat, and let them pay for that favor.

 

[saska sault]

Yeah, should sign Tarasenko, and then trade him to Ottawa for DeBrincat, and let them pay for that favor.

They can throw in a 2nd for saving the paperwork.

 

[jkutswings]

89% cheaper. My bad.

And that's fine that Berggren will get more expensive. The value provided by ELCs and 2nd contracts greatly outweigh full UFA value contracts.

Maximizing that value is more important than overpaying in a trade to then overpay for a pint sized winger.

You seem very concerned about overpayment.

For the sake of discussion, let's say Detroit signs Debrincat to an 8x$8M deal for $64M total.

By the time that deal is near its end, if the cap goes up as expected, you'll see SECOND LINE WINGERS getting 7-8 million a year. Which is the absolute worst case floor for Debrincat. (I would expect him to average 70 points a year or better in Detroit.)

If you like other players better, fine. If Detroit ends up paying an arm and a leg in the trade, I'll be against that as well. But signing this guy to a long term deal will neither hurt the team on the ice nor in the pocketbook.

 

[Shaman464]

Neither did lots of guys until they did it. I'm guessing Hudler also didn't have 30 goal upside, right? Get skilled forwards on to a scoring line with scoring line ice time and you'd be surprised.

Hudler's problem wasn't his skill, it was his size, for a season he was able to use his other skills to make up for that. Berggren's problem is he doesn't have the ability. His peak might be 25g 25a. But that makes him about 2/3rds the player ADB is and a career middle 6 winger on a team full of middle 6 wingers.

 

[Henkka]

By the time that deal is near its end, if the cap goes up as expected, you'll see SECOND LINE WINGERS getting 7-8 million a year. Which is the absolute worst case floor for Debrincat. (I would expect him to average 70 points a year or better in Detroit.)

If you like other players better, fine. If Detroit ends up paying an arm and a leg in the trade, I'll be against that as well. But signing this guy to a long term deal will neither hurt the team on the ice nor in the pocketbook.

It's the same as JT Compher money will pretty soon be that old 3.85M Darren Helm money...

 

[Hen Kolland]

89% cheaper. My bad.

And that's fine that Berggren will get more expensive. The value provided by ELCs and 2nd contracts greatly outweigh full UFA value contracts.

Maximizing that value is more important than overpaying in a trade to then overpay for a pint sized winger.

We are operating under the notion that we pay fair value in the trade and fair value of the contract. Because nobody with half a brain would be sitting here parroting how smart it is to overpay in any capacity for any player.

And no, bridged 2nd contracts are not more valuable than fair value contracts for true first line players. Bridging players is a "value" because it allows your to have more information about what you are buying, but you could end up in a position where you give a bridge deal to a player, let's call him "Zadina". You are really hoping that "Zadina" can figure it out, but after more struggles "Zadina" asks for a trade, you can't find someone to trade "Zadina" to and ultimately you end up waiving said "Zadina" on a bridge deal. Outside of that, it's like having a lawyer on a retainer fee. I am just reserving the right to give you the fair value UFA contract down the road (if you don't wither way) that we are talking about being afraid to pay to Debrincat, who has already proven to be one of the league's best goal scorers. Bridge contracts have their place and do provide value, but there's a reason that the best players sign long term deals with their teams.

You are trying to create a reality that isn't guaranteed to exist. You view this as Debrincat underachieves his contract and proven performance, while Berggren or a first round pick or Kubalik or whoever all overachieve their contracts, historical performance and projections, and therefore we lose. It's far more likely that the pieces we have to give up flounder or remain the same; we have plenty of data to support that.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Yeah, should sign Tarasenko, and then trade him to Ottawa for DeBrincat, and let them pay for that favor.

That's actually a good idea. Sign and trade for the same money no assets given out.

 

[norrisnick]

You seem very concerned about overpayment.

For the sake of discussion, let's say Detroit signs Debrincat to an 8x$8M deal for $64M total.

By the time that deal is near its end, if the cap goes up as expected, you'll see SECOND LINE WINGERS getting 7-8 million a year. Which is the absolute worst case floor for Debrincat. (I would expect him to average 70 points a year or better in Detroit.)

If you like other players better, fine. If Detroit ends up paying an arm and a leg in the trade, I'll be against that as well. But signing this guy to a long term deal will neither hurt the team on the ice nor in the pocketbook.

Locking up a tiny shooter at $8Mx8 plugs him into a top 6 with Raymond, Berggren is trending that way and maybe even Lombardi. I don't think Ras or Soderblom have enough juice to solidify a top 6 spot, but maybe. If we are going big game hunting I would much rather pay more for a bigger winger or at least one that drives his own offense.

Burning assets on DeBrincat because he wants to be here and Ottawa can't wait to be rid of him isn't my top option. Largely because then those assets, minutes, and cap space is now gone.

We are operating under the notion that we pay fair value in the trade and fair value of the contract. Because nobody with half a brain would be sitting here parroting how smart it is to overpay in any capacity for any player.

And no, bridged 2nd contracts are not more valuable than fair value contracts for true first line players. Bridging players is a "value" because it allows your to have more information about what you are buying, but you could end up in a position where you give a bridge deal to a player, let's call him "Zadina". You are really hoping that "Zadina" can figure it out, but after more struggles "Zadina" asks for a trade, you can't find someone to trade "Zadina" to and ultimately you end up waiving said "Zadina" on a bridge deal. Outside of that, it's like having a lawyer on a retainer fee. I am just reserving the right to give you the fair value UFA contract down the road (if you don't wither way) that we are talking about being afraid to pay to Debrincat, who has already proven to be one of the league's best goal scorers. Bridge contracts have their place and do provide value, but there's a reason that the best players sign long term deals with their teams.

You are trying to create a reality that isn't guaranteed to exist. You view this as Debrincat underachieves his contract and proven performance, while Berggren or a first round pick or Kubalik or whoever all overachieve their contracts, historical performance and projections, and therefore we lose. It's far more likely that the pieces we have to give up flounder or remain the same; we have plenty of data to support that.

Like the 40+ goal scorer in Detroit reality? That one?

 

[Gniwder]

Just more clickbait bs. Someone else is reporting that Taresenko rejected all of the offers he had and fired his agent and hired a new agent.

Agent switch is confirmed now.

Stevie should just offer him a one year contract at whatever he wants. At least it'll make the season interesting, and possibly break that no playoff streak.

Tarasenko changes agents during free agency

Free agent Vladimir Tarasenko has changed agents as he seeks a new contract.

www.espn.com

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

89% cheaper. My bad.

And that's fine that Berggren will get more expensive. The value provided by ELCs and 2nd contracts greatly outweigh full UFA value contracts.

Maximizing that value is more important than overpaying in a trade to then overpay for a pint sized winger.

Are we going to win a Cup in two years. If not, Berggren's "cheap" deal is worthless. Because if he's a 20-20 or 30-30 guy... He's going to come in at 5M long term or 4M on a bridge.

I hope we can get Debrincat without having to trade him... but it's insanity to pass on a bona-fide scorer because "This kid on an ELC could definitely be that guy someday". He's here. He's available. For once in the rebuild, let's not nickel and dime shit. Do it right.

 

[Shaman464]

Locking up a tiny shooter at $8Mx8 plugs him into a top 6 with Raymond, Berggren is trending that way and maybe even Lombardi. I don't think Ras or Soderblom have enough juice to solidify a top 6 spot, but maybe. If we are going big game hunting I would much rather pay more for a bigger winger or at least one that drives his own offense.

Burning assets on DeBrincat because he wants to be here and Ottawa can't wait to be rid of him isn't my top option. Largely because then those assets, minutes, and cap space is now gone.


Like the 40+ goal scorer in Detroit reality? That one?

Raymond isn't a first liner yet and may never be a truly elite scorer, and Berggren is trending to be a middle 6 depth scorer. To give you an idea there are 20 players in the NHL that had at least 90% of Raymond's total point production over 156 games in 82 games or less last season. ADB on downward and bottom feeding Blawkhawks teams has had more goals in two of his seasons than Raymond has had in his first 156 games. There is no one currently in Detroit's current roster or prospect pool that is likely to have a single 40 goal season in their careers. The closest we have to a 40 goal scorer currently in the org is Larkin, who will never hit 40 goals.

I don't really want to pay a ton for ADB, but if its a Mazur/Veleno/Berggren plus non-first round picks, I say go for it and never look back.

 

[norrisnick]

Are we going to win a Cup in two years. If not, Berggren's "cheap" deal is worthless. Because if he's a 20-20 or 30-30 guy... He's going to come in at 5M long term or 4M on a bridge.

I hope we can get Debrincat without having to trade him... but it's insanity to pass on a bona-fide scorer because "This kid on an ELC could definitely be that guy someday". He's here. He's available. For once in the rebuild, let's not nickel and dime shit. Do it right.

Exactly. A rebuild. Add to the team. Don't remove one of the few good pieces we have.

 

[Shaman464]

Exactly. A rebuild. Add to the team. Don't remove one of the few good pieces we have.

I have no idea why you're so stuck on Berggren, he's 100% a dime a dozen middle 6 winger. He's the exact kind of piece you move to get a top line guy.

 

[jkutswings]

Locking up a tiny shooter at $8Mx8 plugs him into a top 6 with Raymond, Berggren is trending that way and maybe even Lombardi. I don't think Ras or Soderblom have enough juice to solidify a top 6 spot, but maybe. If we are going big game hunting I would much rather pay more for a bigger winger or at least one that drives his own offense.

Burning assets on DeBrincat because he wants to be here and Ottawa can't wait to be rid of him isn't my top option. Largely because then those assets, minutes, and cap space is now gone.


Like the 40+ goal scorer in Detroit reality? That one?

You do realize that pairing him with Larkin and Raymond would immediately give him more help than he had all year with Ottawa, right? Batherson and Pinto COMBINED for 97 points last year, as opposed to Dylan's 79 by himself, let alone Raymond with 45 in a shortened season.

In this hypothetical, I'd expect something like the following this coming season:

Larkin goes 35-55-90
Debrincat goes 35-40-75
Raymond goes 30-35-65

That's a first line with more firepower than anything since the Euro twins.