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Player Discussion Alex DeBrincat

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The one thing that amazes me about not wanting to re-up DeBrincat, is how prolific he has been throughout his career.

He currently ranks 14th in goals since he entered the league in 2017... the 13 players ahead of him are:

Mika Zibanejad 190 goals - 8.5M/year (signed October 2021)
John Tavares 192 goals - 11M/year (signed 2018)
Steven Stamkos 194 goals - 8.5M/year (signed 2016)
Sebastian Aho 194 goals - 8.45M/year (signed 2019)
Brayden Point 200 goals - 9.5M/year (signed 2021)
Mikko Rantanen 200 goals - 9.25/year (signed 2019)
Kyle Connor 207 goals - 7.125/year (signed 2019)
Nathan MacKinnon 209 goals - 6.3M/year (ends this year, 12.6M going forward)
David Pastrnak 242 goals - 6.66M/year (ends this year, 11.25M going forward)
Leon Draisaitl 256 goals - 8.5M/year (signed 2017)
Connor McDavid 257 goals - 12.5M/year (signed 2018)
Auston Matthews 259 goals - 11.6M/year (signed 2019)
Alexander Ovechkin 264 goals - 9.5M/year (signed 2021)

and if you drop that down to just wingers, he jumps to 5th, behind only Ovechkin, Pastrnak, Connor and Rantanen.

even if you want to rag on him for points this year, the 2 people with similar games played that he tied in points this year (Eichel missed 15 games so not him) are Timo Meier (6M RFA this year, with a 10M QO) and Nick Suzuki (7.875M C and Captain)

I personally think that if we can come to an agreement under what Stu and Chuck make, then we pull the trigger... you aren't going to replace what Debrincat brings with depth and goaltending... Give him an actual playmaker next year (and not a rookie center that pots 15 assists on the 2nd line {no offense, I like Pinto}) and he will flourish.

Also, on the goaltending topic, I'm not usually one for all the fancy stats, but Forsberg has been a top 20 goalie in GSVA last year and this year, next year, with a full year of Chychrun, and Sanderson getting more minutes from the start (and not being stuck with Hamonic for 7/8 of the year) I think we will be more than fine. If we are going to find a way to shore up the bottom 6, it will be through ELC's and moving Joseph (although I'd be fine in giving him a shot with Greig-Pinto)
 
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GCK said:
I don’t think you can argue that Debrincat is worth 8M on the open market, I just don’t think he’s worth it on the Sens due to projected usage.
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Projected usage would increase with a healthy centre, and the 1st and 2nd lines could get mixed up a bit. If Norris had been helthy, DeBc would have been playing with Stutzle and Giroux all season. And he would be on a stronger power-play unit. This past year isn't a great indicator of future opportunities.
 
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GCK said:
I don’t think you can argue that Debrincat is worth 8M on the open market, I just don’t think he’s worth it on the Sens due to projected usage.
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He would get 8 mill on the open market.

His history and numbers speak for themselves.

Your entire numbers argument is about arguing against what his stats show.

Your argument about his play style (not driving play, being soft, and being a perimeter player), is all about arguing against what most people see with their own eyes, and how he is generally described as a player, both here and in Chicago.

I much prefer your stance of wanting to spread the money around, because the play style and stat arguments against him are incredibly weak. He is a huge asset to the team at 8 million, especially going forward on a long term deal, and there really isn’t a question on that in my opinion.

To me it boils down to quality vs quantity and there are valuable arguments to be made on either side.
 
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GCK said:
I don’t think you can argue that Debrincat is worth 8M on the open market, I just don’t think he’s worth it on the Sens due to projected usage.
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If Alex DeBrincat is worth that much on the open market, he's absolutely worth that for Ottawa. Even if you think that there no room for him on this team, then he's an asset worth signing. He is worth more as an asset when signed. The uncertainty right now is a detriment to his value.

Granted, you have to sign him for the right price and pretty much anything north of 8 is not team friendly for Ottawa.
 
DBC easily gets $8m/yr on a long-term deal.
25 years old. Two 40-goal seasons and averaging close to 70 points per season over his career so far.

I understand the opinion that the $8m could be better spread around. That said, we have Giroux for 2 more years (hopefully more) and currently a bunch of questions marks at the prospect level in terms of who could be top 6 players. To me, only Jarventie looks like he could be a fit and that is certainly up in the air right now. So, if you lose DBC and Giroux and you have nothing to replace, you're going to be pretty thin up front in the very near future.

Sign DBC now, try to hold him to a limited NTC, so that you have an out if you need it.
DBC had a bit off an off year this year but that should be expected in the first year after a trade.
Look at Huberdeau in Calgary. With Norris back in the fold and DBC more familiar with the city and team next year, he will get 35+ goals next year and 75+ points and he has game breaker qualities, should/when we make the playoffs next season.
 
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I don't think Cat will have an issue getting $9 million at all. Jeff Skinner got $9 million aav after posting his first 40g season. If Cat still hits near 30g on an off year during a very high scoring season, I'd be shocked if some desperate gm didn't try throwing $9 million at him.

Stupid Penguins. If Hextall was still GM, might have been able to con them into giving us Guentzel and a decent draft pick for Cat lol
 
Good in Osgoode said:
DBC easily gets $8m/yr on a long-term deal.
25 years old. Two 40-goal seasons and averaging close to 70 points per season over his career so far.

I understand the opinion that the $8m could be better spread around. That said, we have Giroux for 2 more years (hopefully more) and currently a bunch of questions marks at the prospect level in terms of who could be top 6 players. To me, only Jarventie looks like he could be a fit and that is certainly up in the air right now. So, if you lose DBC and Giroux and you have nothing to replace, you're going to be pretty thin up front in the very near future.

Sign DBC now, try to hold him to a limited NTC, so that you have an out if you need it.
DBC had a bit off an off year this year but that should be expected in the first year after a trade.
Look at Huberdeau in Calgary. With Norris back in the fold and DBC more familiar with the city and team next year, he will get 35+ goals next year and 75+ points and he has game breaker qualities, should/when we make the playoffs next season.
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if you lose DBC and Giroux and you have nothing to replace, you're going to be pretty thin up front in the very near future. That is frightening considering we've been a complete tear down rebuild and very realistically could face that starting this summer. I do however think there are players that will be available to fill the hole left by DeBrincat and short up the 3rd line with better quality. We don't have prospects ready to plug and play in those spots but there are UFAs that can plug those holes and buy some time for the couple prospects we have to be ready. If we relied soley on our prospects .. we would not advance next year.
 
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Flamingo said:
Projected usage would increase with a healthy centre, and the 1st and 2nd lines could get mixed up a bit. If Norris had been helthy, DeBc would have been playing with Stutzle and Giroux all season. And he would be on a stronger power-play unit. This past year isn't a great indicator of future opportunities.
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I would argue that with a healthy Norris dcat belongs in the second pp unit. Based on what we have seen Norris is a much better sniper than dcat and we have better players for the other roles on pp1 as well!
 
SweSensFan said:
I would argue that with a healthy Norris dcat belongs in the second pp unit. Based on what we have seen Norris is a much better sniper than dcat and we have better players for the other roles on pp1 as well!
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I agree,

To add,

I don't think Cat going to be on our first PP unit next year either. Norris had more PPG in 66 games last year than anyone had this year. Norris will be back on PP1 and be on one of the half-walls. Stutzle will be on the other wall and that means there is no space for Cat. Even if he could do the bumper well, which I don't think he can, Batherson had more PPG than him this year, so it is unlikely he losses his spot.

Cat will end up on PP2 with G, we just have too many offensive weapons for everyone to be on PP1.
 
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Sens of Anarchy said:
if you lose DBC and Giroux and you have nothing to replace, you're going to be pretty thin up front in the very near future. That is frightening considering we've been a complete tear down rebuild and very realistically could face that starting this summer. I do however think there are players that will be available to fill the hole left by DeBrincat and short up the 3rd line with better quality. We don't have prospects ready to plug and play in those spots but there are UFAs that can plug those holes and buy some time for the couple prospects we have to be ready. If we relied soley on our prospects .. we would not advance next year.
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How do we very realistically this summer face losing DeBrincat and Giroux?
 
GCK said:
Okay, but I still disagree. Debrincat to me is the prototypical perimeter player.
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As are a lot of wingers. Its sorta built into the position. You can't have all the exact same type of player on a team, if all our players were away from the perimeter and bunching up in front of the net, it would be a disaster.
 
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Sens of Anarchy said:
if you lose DBC and Giroux and you have nothing to replace, you're going to be pretty thin up front in the very near future. That is frightening considering we've been a complete tear down rebuild and very realistically could face that starting this summer. I do however think there are players that will be available to fill the hole left by DeBrincat and short up the 3rd line with better quality. We don't have prospects ready to plug and play in those spots but there are UFAs that can plug those holes and buy some time for the couple prospects we have to be ready. If we relied soley on our prospects .. we would not advance next year.
Click to expand...

about the complete tear down thing, I looked up some of the playoff teams this year and compared their depth charts with ours in comparison to "rebuilds."

Toronto - going into the playoffs with Nylander, Marner, Matthews, Tavares and Reilly as top 10 picks.

Edmonton - going in with Kane, RNH, Nurse, Draisaitl, McDavid and Boucherd.

Florida - Barkov, Ekblad, Bennett and Tkachuk

Winnipeg - Niederreiter, Scheifele, Ehlers, Dubois and Perfetti (don't forget Wheeler was a 5th overall pick and is still contributing)

Tampa - Stamkos, Hedman and Sergachev (they have been insane at drafting in the later rounds)

Colorado - Landeskog, Galchenyuk, Nichushkin, MacKinnon, Rantanen, Makar and Byram.

meanwhile Ottawa has Tkachuk, Stutzle, and Sanderson.

Except Tampa, every team I pulled here have between 4 and SEVEN top 10 drafted players contributing heavily to their teams.

Ottawa pulled the trigger and traded Karlsson at training camp 2018, since then we have had 4 top ten picks (with one that was projected to be a second rounder) while finishing bottom 10 in the league 5 times.

Another thing these teams didn't do that Ottawa did, was trade away first round picks before they started making the playoffs... I know I sound contradictory as in one thread I'm defending re-signing DeBrincat whereas here I'm claiming it was foolish to trade for him... but it does sorta ring true... we have no depth and no promising prospects due to unfortunate trade scenarios (trading for Duchene really hurt, the Karlsson trade really helped)

I know people will argue that some players are playing beyond their draft positions and may be worth a top 10 pick now, and some of the names I listed (Galchenyuk) probably wouldn't be top 10 picks in a redraft, but the overarching theme I'm seeing with most* playoff teams, is 4+ top 10 picks contributing heavily to their teams success.

SweSensFan said:
I would argue that with a healthy Norris dcat belongs in the second pp unit. Based on what we have seen Norris is a much better sniper than dcat and we have better players for the other roles on pp1 as well!
Click to expand...

a guy who has 1 full completed season where he scored 35 goals is a "much better sniper" than a guy who has never missed a game due to injury and has scored 40 twice... huh.
 
caymanmew said:
I agree,

To add,

I don't think Cat going to be on our first PP unit next year either. Norris had more PPG in 66 games last year than anyone had this year. Norris will be back on PP1 and be on one of the half-walls. Stutzle will be on the other wall and that means there is no space for Cat. Even if he could do the bumper well, which I don't think he can, Batherson had more PPG than him this year, so it is unlikely he losses his spot.

Cat will end up on PP2 with G, we just have too many offensive weapons for everyone to be on PP1.
Click to expand...
But that second unit with G, arguable the best PP playmaker, DBC, Pinto, and Sanderson…. I mean that is a solid unit.

We need one more guy to play Brady’s role and that is a 1b unit.
 
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