Player Discussion Alex DeBrincat

[Wondercarrot]

40.6 for Matthews/Marner/Tavares/Nylander, and then 2.1 as of now for Jarnkrok, if they get a guy making 3 brings them to 43.6

That's a list of the top 5 forwards, not entire top 6. Should have clarified as I added the top 6 bit after posting.

A top 6 list pushes the Sens even higher up compared to other teams, at 44.2 million, as Batherson makes 5 mill, and most other teams 6th highest paid forward is making <4 million.

Personally I think Ottawa’s top 6 is one of the best in the league, it has 5 legit top line guys (6 if Batherson stays on form).
We also have one of the best D in the league with 3 legit top pairing guys and a legit 3/4 guy in Zub.

Our goaltending is average to subpar.
I so badly want to go all in and make a play for Saros at $5 million a year for the next 2 years.

Unload Forsberg, unload Joseph.
Make the play for Saros.
I’d sell another 1st, + + to get him.

2023-24
$77.1 million + 5.2 million dead space = $82.3 million
F- 49.9
Tkachuk 8.2 Norris 7.9 Batherson 5
DeBrincat 8 Stutzle 8.3 Giroux 6.5
Grieg 1 Pinto 2 ? 1
Gauthier 1 Kastelic 1 ? 1

D- 21.2
Chabot 8 Zub 4.6
Sanderson 1 Chychrun 4.6
Brann 1 ? 1
? 1

G- 6
Saros 5
Sogaard 1

That team is so stacked and with Greig and Pinto in the 3rd line we are deep.
I’d put that lineup against any team in the league.

 

[Union2017]

We are already past that, this isn't about financial stability, it is about the cap hit and how that all fits. the difference between 6, 7, and 8+ million is what our bottom six looks like. the question is what does Debrincat deserve for his role and does that cost hurt us too much to make it worth it?

Are we past that really? Are we good buying players out or moving them to AHL the way NYR moved Redden while he was still making millions? I don't think so, but I agree we are doing better. I want to be at the point where I don't care how much they pay who as long as they can absorb the cost if it doesn't work out. And we need the new owners to be able to do that. Just my opinion.

 

[Tuna99]

We just added a $6.5m caliber Dman.

Our 5 on 5 needs more scoring right now. We can't afford to lose DeBrincat.

The team has 4 legit top 4 defenseman. That should be enough. If it isn't, they either have the wrong pieces or the wrong coach.

Debrincat is a wonderful luxury, and he's showing how dangerous he can be now. The team needs to lock him up long term. Solidify that top 6, and when they need to worry about the cap in a couple years they can decide what to do then.

I just don’t see a 5’8” winger making $8 million plus on a long term contract getting you much in a trade with a long term contract moving easily - and ADB will have trade protection if he signs so that alsoLimit is your options.

Not anti ADB, need good players to have a good team. But if he scored 40 this year we make the playoffs. I feel he didn’t deliver so im not a big fans TBH. I don’t even think he’s one of our 6 best forwards next season

Timmy
Brady
Norris
Giroux
Batherson
Pinto (by next season pre season will be a better player then ADB)

 

[caymanmew]

Are we past that really? Are we good buying players out or moving them to AHL the way NYR moved Redden while he was still making millions? I don't think so, but I agree we are doing better. I want to be at the point where I don't care how much they pay who as long as they can absorb the cost if it doesn't work out. And we need the new owners to be able to do that. Just my opinion.

We currently have 5m in dead cap from buyouts and retention on trades. We are never going to be NYR rich but we aren't pinching pennies at this point. We can spend to the cap comfortably.

And we will have new owners in a few months.

 

[swiftwin]

Are we past that really? Are we good buying players out or moving them to AHL the way NYR moved Redden while he was still making millions? I don't think so, but I agree we are doing better. I want to be at the point where I don't care how much they pay who as long as they can absorb the cost if it doesn't work out. And we need the new owners to be able to do that. Just my opinion.

The CBA is different. You can't bury contracts in the minors anymore.

 

[Golden_Jet]

The CBA is different. You can't bury contracts in the minors anymore.

You can, but get hit with
cap hit - 1.125 million

So a 4.125 AAV player that clears waivers would now get a 3 million cap hit.

 

[PoutineSp00nZ]

I just don’t see a 5’8” winger making $8 million plus on a long term contract getting you much in a trade with a long term contract moving easily - and ADB will have trade protection if he signs so that alsoLimit is your options.

Not anti ADB, need good players to have a good team. But if he scored 40 this year we make the playoffs. I feel he didn’t deliver so im not a big fans TBH. I don’t even think he’s one of our 6 best forwards next season

Timmy
Brady
Norris
Giroux
Batherson
Pinto (by next season pre season will be a better player then ADB)

His size is irrelevant. His points are what matters.

He's having an off year, which might help when it comes to signing a new contract.

Any long term contract is a risk. But I think the debrincat we are seeing now is more the Alex debrincat wr will see going forward. If he continues to be a near point per game, 30 to 40 goal scorer he will have value regardless of his size

 

[Tuna99]

His size is irrelevant. His points are what matters.

He's having an off year, which might help when it comes to signing a new contract.

Any long term contract is a risk. But I think the debrincat we are seeing now is more the Alex debrincat wr will see going forward. If he continues to be a near point per game, 30 to 40 goal scorer he will have value regardless of his size

Where was he in November? Just don’t think he has enough cheese slices for a full playoff run

 

[MrGuyPerson]

Our goaltending is average to subpar.
I so badly want to go all in and make a play for Saros at $5 million a year for the next 2 years.

The sens goal tending is atrocious and has been plagued by inconsistency, possibly since the days of Craig Anderson.

This idea is so good, that the only issue with trying to accomplish it, is I'd imagine 15 other franchises are thinking the same thing. There will be a bidding war.

Buffalo - I know is going to want Juuse. They already made trade proposal thread on hf boards. If hf boards can think of it I am certain gms already have.

Calgary - For sure exploring goalie options.

The Kaken - They'd be a lot better if their own net was not always Kraken.

Vegas - They are solid, but a true number 1 tendy feels rare in today's NHL

Devils - not sure how much they need it, but why not go for an upgrade

Carolina - Maybe? Freddy's alight, but Juuse is better, so ultimately they could

The Leafs - matt Murray may have stopped 50 on the sens, but we know he doesn't bring that performance night in and night out.

Pittsburgh- Big Maybe.

Detroit - Yep.

And finally The Sens - yep.

To aquire Juuse before free agency, which is what Nashville will do as that was their plan when they selected Askarov, the competition is gonna be tough. How much are you willing to move to make it happen and will it actually compete with what the other teams listed offered?

Or will you wait until free agency and hope he chooses this market of all the ones listed? I think I got most of the relevant teams that either might want and a goalie or definitely do.

 

[UglyPuckling]

Personally I think Ottawa’s top 6 is one of the best in the league, it has 5 legit top line guys (6 if Batherson stays on form).
We also have one of the best D in the league with 3 legit top pairing guys and a legit 3/4 guy in Zub.

Our goaltending is average to subpar.
I so badly want to go all in and make a play for Saros at $5 million a year for the next 2 years.

Unload Forsberg, unload Joseph.
Make the play for Saros.
I’d sell another 1st, + + to get him.

2023-24
$77.1 million + 5.2 million dead space = $82.3 million
F- 49.9
Tkachuk 8.2 Norris 7.9 Batherson 5
DeBrincat 8 Stutzle 8.3 Giroux 6.5
Grieg 1 Pinto 2 ? 1
Gauthier 1 Kastelic 1 ? 1

D- 21.2
Chabot 8 Zub 4.6
Sanderson 1 Chychrun 4.6
Brann 1 ? 1
? 1

G- 6
Saros 5
Sogaard 1

That team is so stacked and with Greig and Pinto in the 3rd line we are deep.
I’d put that lineup against any team in the league.

I took the liberty of putting your roster & numbers into my spreadsheet. Mainly I just wanted to have a spreadsheet iteration with Saros in it so it's handy & available for future use. Hope you don't mind.

I think there's one small difference between mine (below) and yours. That is mine has a 22 player roster, whereas yours is 21 players. For the players that have existing NHL contracts, I inserted their real cap hits (from CapFriendly) - just a note or detail.

It's pretty tight if the cap ceiling is $83.5 m and the Senators have a 22-player roster. But, to reiterate, I just wanted to have this iteration handy for future use. I'll let others do the commenting as per usual.

 

[Wondercarrot]

I took the liberty of putting your roster & numbers into my spreadsheet. Mainly I just wanted to have a spreadsheet iteration with Saros in it so it's handy & available for future use. Hope you don't mind.

I think there's one small difference between mine (below) and yours. That is mine has a 22 player roster, whereas yours is 21 players. For the players that have existing NHL contracts, I inserted their real cap hits (from CapFriendly) - just a note or detail.

It's pretty tight if the cap ceiling is $83.5 m and the Senators have a 22-player roster. But, to reiterate, I just wanted to have this iteration handy for future use. I'll let others do the commenting as per usual.

View attachment 679723

Thanks man! Was secretly hoping you’d do this

 

[Wondercarrot]

So given it’s ‘possible’ to fit Saros, how many people here would want to do it?

Realistically you are looking at another 1st and Grieg (+ maybe some spare change)
You’d need to move out Forsberg and Joseph as well. (Maybe one in the deal)

 

[UglyPuckling]

Thanks man! Was secretly hoping you’d do this

Not a problem. You helped me as well, so thanks!

 

[JD1]

DBC will be starting his UFA contract at 26/7, not 25. Horvat will be in his 28 year old season starting his. Very, very little difference.

Most of the high paid players are in that age range, or on soon expiring deals with the exceptions of a few teams like Pitts, Washington, TB, CGY.

The Thomson's, Cozens, Hughes, Petterson, Hischier, Barzel, Connor, Fiala, Robertson, Hintz, Rantanen types are the guys who are atop many their teams pay scales. Then there is the old guard who are coming to the end of their deals like Crosby, OV, Kopitar, etc.

If we sign DeBrincat this summer he will be 25 starting his contract.

 

[MrGuyPerson]

So given it’s ‘possible’ to fit Saros, how many people here would want to do it?

Realistically you are looking at another 1st and Grieg (+ maybe some spare change)
You’d need to move out Forsberg and Joseph as well. (Maybe one in the deal)

I would hope everyone here would want to do it. Desire aside though, I think you are underestimating the cost to aquire a true number 1 goalie. A lot of the league also does not have a true number 1 goalie.


In short, I highly doubt Nashville would accept a B grade prospect, a mid to late 1st rounder(Mid to late because your team will win a lot more games after this trade), and a few role players for one of the few legit #1 goalies in the league.

Other teams will also be interested, and I suspect they will offer more than this

Juuse's is under contract until 24-25 season. His trade value is certainly more than "here take what I'm comfortable losing". Nashville's roster is near contention(probably due in large part to Juuse) while missing Forsberg for a large chunk of the season.

In Nashville's shoes as still a fringe playoff team while missing star players for a long portion of the season, and their offense not having much depth, they need an actual impact forward not a hopefully will be one. I would demand an A level prospect/An established 1st-2nd line player + whatever spare parts player my scouting team says fits. In the case of the sens this looks more like Norris/Pinto + whoever nashvilles scouting department picks from the bottom 6.

The trade value you suggested sounds a lot like what the Sabres fans thought. But, if you want a #1 goalie they won't just hand him over, especially if other teams are interested. Buffalo fans seemed to think middlestat and some other spare parts player and a pick would be good. It isn't though. Especially considering how many more games your team will win with an actual top goalie. Mid to late first rounders have little value to a team already on the fringe of contending. In the case of Buffalo and I were Nashville, I'd demand one of quinn/peterka/savoie + spare parts

 

[GCK]

The Debrincat dilemma comes down to what you think makes the team a playoff team.

Letting Hamonic walk hurts way more than his on ice performance would indicate IMO. Whenever the goalie lets in a bad goal or a young player makes a bad play, Hamonic is the guy who comes over and tells them to forget about it and provides encouragement. That leadership needs to come from a vet with the right personality.

Going into next season with Forsberg and Sogaard is a disaster waiting to happen IMO. Sogaard needs to have a season in the AHL where he plays 50 games and establishes consistency, moving him up to split time with Forsberg could easily ruin him. It’s a common theme that rushing goalies almost always backfires.

Our scoring depth is non existent. Sure we could go with duos like Stu:Brady, Norris/Debrincat, Pinto/Bath along with Joseph, Greig and hopefully Formenton but that means having zero depth in case of injuries.

It’s pretty clear the cap is going to be 83.5M and teams are not going to lineup to take on Forsberg or Joseph so that we can upgrade our goaltending.

I keep coming back to Debrincat being a 7.5-8M luxury that looks good on paper but is a likely mistake in practice.

 

[aragorn]

The Debrincat dilemma comes down to what you think makes the team a playoff team.

Letting Hamonic walk hurts way more than his on ice performance would indicate IMO. Whenever the goalie lets in a bad goal or a young player makes a bad play, Hamonic is the guy who comes over and tells them to forget about it and provides encouragement. That leadership needs to come from a vet with the right personality.

Going into next season with Forsberg and Sogaard is a disaster waiting to happen IMO. Sogaard needs to have a season in the AHL where he plays 50 games and establishes consistency, moving him up to split time with Forsberg could easily ruin him. It’s a common theme that rushing goalies almost always backfires.

Our scoring depth is non existent. Sure we could go with duos like Stu:Brady, Norris/Debrincat, Pinto/Bath along with Joseph, Greig and hopefully Formenton but that means having zero depth in case of injuries.

It’s pretty clear the cap is going to be 83.5M and teams are not going to lineup to take on Forsberg or Joseph so that we can upgrade our goaltending.

I keep coming back to Debrincat being a 7.5-8M luxury that looks good on paper but is a likely mistake in practice.

I liked the entirety of your post except for the last sentence, IMO DBC makes the team better & adds the secondary scoring this team needs besides it's top line given the bottom six basically have next to zero offence among the two lines. With the return of Norris that should push Pinto down to the 3rd line, but he is going to need help to not just match this yr's numbers, but improve upon them which is why changes need to be made in the bottom six for next yr.

Greig certainly should add a little more offence, but they will need more & if it's not from within than it will need to come from outside the org. What I like about DBC is that he can play either LW or RW & that allows Dorion to find the best forward they can afford from either wing. The return of Formenton would certainly help as well, but who knows what the future holds for him.
Goaltending is certainly an issue that will definitely need to be fixed & maybe it's just another yr of patience before we see what Sogaard & Merilainen can be, but we shouldn't hurt the offence to fix the defence, but rather wait for the right deal to present itself. Chychrun & Joseph both IMO have to be better next yr otherwise they could present a potential trade package for a goalie too.

 

[dmarc]

What do people think PDs plan was when he acquired DBC? If he scored 40 he would be a 9 million plus player and you'd have to think they'd be willing to pay him that.

He's nearly a 30g scorer in a down year, 8 million is kinda best case for the team honestly due to the upcoming cap crunch.

Anyways, I am team sign the guy, the next 4-5 years is our window and he can absolutely be a key player in that

 

[ottawah]

Our scoring depth is non existent. Sure we could go with duos like Stu:Brady, Norris/Debrincat, Pinto/Bath along with Joseph, Greig and hopefully Formenton but that means having zero depth in case of injuries.

I keep coming back to Debrincat being a 7.5-8M luxury that looks good on paper but is a likely mistake in practice.

I'm not sure how that helps. Replacing the 4th highest scorer on the team would mean notable upgrades across a lot of secondary scoring just to have the scoring remain on the same level. To see a notacable improvement we'd have to have 3rd/4th lime players up their points by 15 a game, and I'm not buying on that happening by allocating and extra 8 mill to those lines.

Its not like he has had a terrible year. His scoring/60 is only down 7% from last year. If his shooting percentage was just halfway back to what it is career wise, his per 60 this year would be the same as last year.

 

[GCK]

I'm not sure how that helps. Replacing the 4th highest scorer on the team would mean notable upgrades across a lot of secondary scoring just to have the scoring remain on the same level. To see a notacable improvement we'd have to have 3rd/4th lime players up their points by 15 a game, and I'm not buying on that happening by allocating and extra 8 mill to those lines.

Its not like he has had a terrible year. His scoring/60 is only down 7% from last year. If his shooting percentage was just halfway back to what it is career wise, his per 60 this year would be the same as last year.

Josh Norris replaces Debrincat’s offence AND provides way better defensive play.

The 8M freed up improves goaltending and depth.

How will Debrincat’s numbers look next year when he’s off PP1.

 

[Xspyrit]

It's crazy how inexistant Dorion foresight is.

lol just saw a Sens fan trading DeBrincat for 2 forwards in the Paul/Brown mold, then DUMP Joseph and then trade assets for a much worse goalie than Gustavsson

You can't make this **** up

 

[HSF]

The Debrincat dilemma comes down to what you think makes the team a playoff team.

Letting Hamonic walk hurts way more than his on ice performance would indicate IMO. Whenever the goalie lets in a bad goal or a young player makes a bad play, Hamonic is the guy who comes over and tells them to forget about it and provides encouragement. That leadership needs to come from a vet with the right personality.

Going into next season with Forsberg and Sogaard is a disaster waiting to happen IMO. Sogaard needs to have a season in the AHL where he plays 50 games and establishes consistency, moving him up to split time with Forsberg could easily ruin him. It’s a common theme that rushing goalies almost always backfires.

Our scoring depth is non existent. Sure we could go with duos like Stu:Brady, Norris/Debrincat, Pinto/Bath along with Joseph, Greig and hopefully Formenton but that means having zero depth in case of injuries.

It’s pretty clear the cap is going to be 83.5M and teams are not going to lineup to take on Forsberg or Joseph so that we can upgrade our goaltending.

I keep coming back to Debrincat being a 7.5-8M luxury that looks good on paper but is a likely mistake in practice.

Hamonic is not really needed with Chychrun here

Hamonic is a bottom pairing guy. Unless he signs for 1 mill we shouldnt be spending time on trying to get him back

 

[Cosmix]

What do people think PDs plan was when he acquired DBC? If he scored 40 he would be a 9 million plus player and you'd have to think they'd be willing to pay him that.

He's nearly a 30g scorer in a down year, 8 million is kinda best case for the team honestly due to the upcoming cap crunch.

Anyways, I am team sign the guy, the next 4-5 years is our window and he can absolutely be a key player in that

I think the team might give Debrincat his QO of $9M if Debrincat refuses to sign a longer term contract for less such as $8M AAV for 5 or more years. Once the new owners are in place, a longer term decision would be made (e.g., trade or raise the offer).

 

[GCK]

Hamonic is not really needed with Chychrun here

Hamonic is a bottom pairing guy. Unless he signs for 1 mill we shouldnt be spending time on trying to get him back

Hamonic’s value far exceeds his on ice performance. This isn’t a video game, team chemistry, leadership and mentoring are all real facets of team building.

I think the team might give Debrincat his QO of $9M if Debrincat refuses to sign a longer term contract for less such as $8M AAV for 5 or more years. Once the new owners are in place, a longer term decision would be made (e.g., trade or raise the offer).

I’d take him to arbitration rather than give him his 9M. No way he comes close to 9 in that scenario.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

You have to think with near certainty that Detroit kicked the tires on Debrincat when he was available last year, and were not willing to offer more than the Sens (especially as they picked 8th, Ottawa 7th). With what is likely noticable diminished value this year, what makes Detroit that much more interested this year? They are in the same boat as Ottawa, up and coming team with a chance to get Debrincat without giving up a prospect and turned it down.

The hard truth is Debrincat went to the highest bidder last year. Teams were leery of him not producing as well with out Kane, and that is not something to be leery of now, they are sure. Secondly, they were leery of the contract, but at least you had him for 1 year at a 6.5M cap hit and still had RFA rights. Now it is likely to be a 9M cap hit with no rights after this year.

I'm not sure what way this is going, but its very hard to see even getting close to our original outlay back with him having diminished value.

As discussed on the local Sport Radio station yesterday, there is reason to suspect the NHL facilitating the trade to Ottawa, knowing that they would soon be put up for sale. This ties in with the rumoured $450 million debt, with a big part of being a LOC extended by the NHL to the Sens to make signing and make the trade for the Cat, to improve the Senators for the coming season, and pump up the value, and asking price for the franchise went it eventually was going to put up for sale.