Player Discussion Alex DeBrincat

[SpezDispenser]

If one guy gets hurt for 6 weeks we will need a 3rd goalie who can win games. A veteran signing would require waivers to go to the AHL. I truly believe 45-50 starts for Sogaard is important for his development and he can get that in Belleville. Good teams have depth.


Who are his comparables that signed recently ?

Off the top of my head I'd say Boldy, who signed a 7 mil, 7 year extension at 21.

Now, add in several years where dbc hit 40 goals scored twice and 30 once and immediately you see that 8 for him might be wishful thinking.

Larkin as well, though Cs are a different breed. 8.7 x 8 without having the levels of production that dbc has.

Then there's the old men who got big money like Horvat and Miller for example, but again, Cs are harder to examine.

 

[BondraTime]

Off the top of my head I'd say Boldy, who signed a 7 mil, 7 year extension at 21.

Now, add in several years where dbc hit 40 goals scored twice and 30 once and immediately you see that 8 for him might be wishful thinking.

Larkin as well, though Cs are a different breed. 8.7 x 8 without having the levels of production that dbc has.

Then there's the old men who got big money like Horvat and Miller for example, but again, Cs are harder to examine.

Boldy isn't a comparable whatsoever, near the exact opposite. He signed his deal with less than 80 games under his belt, still on his ELC.

That's what happens on ELC deals, you pay for the future, not what he is now.

With DBC, you're paying what he is now. Will a team in UFA possibly fork over 8 million? Maybe, but I don't think he's valued around the league like he is on here.

If we are paying 8 million for DBC, we will likely regret it soon thereafter with the roster construction as is.

Fiala is the closest comparable, at 7.8, and is without a doubt the better player.

 

[BankStreetParade]

Depth scoring is very important.

Look at the success Seattle has had this year offensively, despite their best forward being Jared McCann, who would probably rank 7th on our forward depth chart when everyone is healthy.

They've outscored the Sens handily with far less top-end talent because each one of their lines can help contribute offensively, while the Sens have only 2 lines that can do the same.

We would have been much better off had Dorion played it safe and re-signed Paul and Brown instead of throwing more money (not to mention a 7th overall pick) at DeBrincat and Joseph.

Yep, that's why we're being outscored by Seattle and definitely not because 2 guys who combined for 53 goals last year haven't played for us this year.

 

[GCK]

Boldy isn't a comparable whatsoever, near the exact opposite. He signed his deal with less than 80 games under his belt, still on his ELC.

That's what happens on ELC deals, you pay for the future, not what he is now.

With DBC, you're paying what he is now. Will a team in UFA possibly fork over 8 million? Maybe, but I don't think he's valued around the league like he is on here.

If we are paying 8 million for DBC, we will likely regret it soon thereafter with the roster construction as is.

Fiala is the closest comparable, at 7.8, and is without a doubt the better player.

I see Debrincat as a 7M AAV on a long term deal as the highest we could fit and I think that’s realistic value. I doubt he takes it which is why I think we need to move him.

Tkachuk - 7 x 8.25
Giroux - 3 x 6.5
Batherson - 6 x 5

Where does Debrincat slot in within our team salary structure ?

 

[SpezDispenser]

Boldy isn't a comparable whatsoever, near the exact opposite. He signed his deal with less than 80 games under his belt, still on his ELC.

That's what happens on ELC deals, you pay for the future, not what he is now.

With DBC, you're paying what he is now. Will a team in UFA possibly fork over 8 million? Maybe, but I don't think he's valued around the league like he is on here.

If we are paying 8 million for DBC, we will likely regret it soon thereafter with the roster construction as is.

Fiala is the closest comparable, at 7.8, and is without a doubt the better player.

So boldy has similar numbers to dbc first season, but with dbc you have concrete evidence that he is a 40 goal scorer - not a maybe - but for sure.

So, how is 8 not in his future? I guarantee it is, whether with us or elsewhere and I'd bet good money on it

 

[SpezDispenser]

Or better yet, I'm on mobile and working, someone find a comparable player. 25 ish, 2 40 goal seasons and 2 seasons over 70 points who signed.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Again, it's hard to compare buying four RFA years to buying one.

 

[Micklebot]

Maybe the answer to that is a veteran for the AHL squad. Sure there are goalie injuries but our situation this year is an anomaly with both guys hurt.

We need a Mike Brodeur or curtis McElhinney or Barry Brust... Half kindling but a vet AHL guy that can come up for short spurts when there isn't a waiver option like Hellberg available would be pretty good

As an aside, kinda surprised looking back that Brust never got a second chance in the NHL, his minor league and overseas numbers were surprisingly good.

On another note, Merilainin should be in Belleville next year from the looks of it (or I'm off my rocker, who knows), so idk if they'll actually go after a vet.

Team has been saying publicly Sogaard is the future, I think he'll be counted on as an NHL guy next year, saving room in the budget to sign DeBrincat.

 

[Icelevel]

Meow

 

[BondraTime]

Sens top 5 forwards if DBC is signed at 8 million: 39.2 million. If you want to go top 6 in total, it becomes worse as most other teams 6th highest paid forward is <4, while Bathersonn is at 5.

EAST
Leafs - 43.1 million (Marner/Matthews/Tavares all 10+ mil)
Habs - 28.8 million
Lightning - 36.85 million
Bruins - 33.5 million
Sabres - 32.7 million
Wings - 25.5 million
Islanders - 35.6 million
Rangers - 36.6 million
Devils - 35.5 million (added 14 million onto their top 3 paid guys, likely will be lower)
Pens - 30.9 million
Flyers - 28.6 million
Panthers 34.5 million
Canes - 29.4 (probably add ~2/3 million)
Caps - 37.9 million
Jackets - 28.6 million

WEST
Flames - 33.5 million
Oilers - 36.7 million
Canucks - 32.3 million
Jets - 31.4 million
Knights - 35.4 million
Avs - 39.4 million (Mac + Rantanen at 22 mill)
Blues - 33 million
Sharks 25.8 million
Stars - 39.9 (Benn and Sequin's awful contracts will kill them at 20 mill for another while)
Kraken - 26.5 million
Wild - 29,6 million (Includes Parise 6.3 buyout)
Kings - 33 million (last year of Kopitar's 10 million)
Preds - 29.5 million
Hawks - 25 million
Ducks - 20 million
Yotes - 22 million

Lots of these teams aren't comparable, lots of them are. With the work needed elsewhere on the roster, I don't think the Sens should be committing to a top 2 leaguewide payroll for their top 6 forwards.

 

[Sensinitis]

Sens top 5 forwards if DBC is signed at 8 million: 39.2 million. If you want to go top 6 in total, it becomes worse as most other teams 6th highest paid forward is <4, while Bathersonn is at 5.

EAST
Leafs - 43.1 million (Marner/Matthews/Tavares all 10+ mil)
Habs - 28.8 million
Lightning - 36.85 million
Bruins - 33.5 million
Sabres - 32.7 million
Wings - 25.5 million
Islanders - 35.6 million
Rangers - 36.6 million
Devils - 35.5 million (added 14 million onto their top 3 paid guys, likely will be lower)
Pens - 30.9 million
Flyers - 28.6 million
Panthers 34.5 million
Canes - 29.4 (probably add ~2/3 million)
Caps - 37.9 million
Jackets - 28.6 million

WEST
Flames - 33.5 million
Oilers - 36.7 million
Canucks - 32.3 million
Jets - 31.4 million
Knights - 35.4 million
Avs - 39.4 million (Mac + Rantanen at 22 mill)
Blues - 33 million
Sharks 25.8 million
Stars - 39.9 (Benn and Sequin's awful contracts will kill them at 20 mill for another while)
Kraken - 26.5 million
Wild - 29,6 million (Includes Parise 6.3 buyout)
Kings - 33 million (last year of Kopitar's 10 million)
Preds - 29.5 million
Hawks - 25 million
Ducks - 20 million
Yotes - 22 million

Lots of these teams aren't comparable, lots of them are. With the work needed elsewhere on the roster, I don't think the Sens should be committing to a top 2 leaguewide payroll for their top 6 forwards.

If he re-signs, somehow I doubt it's in that range. Whatever the market is, Stutzle and Tkachuk are both better than him and making 8M. Heck, Giroux is better and he's making 6.5M.

What would you think of signing him at 7M?

If the cap goes up in the next 3 seasons as projected I think that's very reasonable, especially considering Giroux won't be around forever.

 

[BondraTime]

Or better yet, I'm on mobile and working, someone find a comparable player. 25 ish, 2 40 goal seasons and 2 seasons over 70 points who signed.

Yes, he likely will get 8+, that's why teams are going to get in trouble, like a vast majority of UFA signings (and why teams weren't lining up for him when he became available)

Paying for what he did in Chicago is going to burn some team.

 

[JD1]

If one guy gets hurt for 6 weeks we will need a 3rd goalie who can win games. A veteran signing would require waivers to go to the AHL. I truly believe 45-50 starts for Sogaard is important for his development and he can get that in Belleville. Good teams have depth.


Who are his comparables that signed recently ?

There's 8 teams in the league that have had 3 goalies appear in more than 10 games.

Caveat to that is there's a couple of teams that have a guy with 10. But that's games played, not started.

Using Natural stat trick, there's 9 teams with 3 goalies that have played greater than 600 minutes. There's 27 goalies that have played less than 600 minutes, 22 of them less than 300. There's 7 teams that have used only two goalies this year.

Stats say our situation this year is pretty unusual. I think pretty typically that 3rd guy plays 5 or so games. I wouldn't really plan our year based on who that guy might be

 

[JD1]

We need a Mike Brodeur or curtis McElhinney or Barry Brust... Half kindling but a vet AHL guy that can come up for short spurts when there isn't a waiver option like Hellberg available would be pretty good

As an aside, kinda surprised looking back that Brust never got a second chance in the NHL, his minor league and overseas numbers were surprisingly good.

On another note, Merilainin should be in Belleville next year from the looks of it (or I'm off my rocker, who knows), so idk if they'll actually go after a vet.

Team has been saying publicly Sogaard is the future, I think he'll be counted on as an NHL guy next year, saving room in the budget to sign DeBrincat.

I agree...and that's the kind of vet I was thinking of.

 

[JD1]

Sens top 5 forwards if DBC is signed at 8 million: 39.2 million. If you want to go top 6 in total, it becomes worse as most other teams 6th highest paid forward is <4, while Bathersonn is at 5.

EAST
Leafs - 43.1 million (Marner/Matthews/Tavares all 10+ mil)
Habs - 28.8 million
Lightning - 36.85 million
Bruins - 33.5 million
Sabres - 32.7 million
Wings - 25.5 million
Islanders - 35.6 million
Rangers - 36.6 million
Devils - 35.5 million (added 14 million onto their top 3 paid guys, likely will be lower)
Pens - 30.9 million
Flyers - 28.6 million
Panthers 34.5 million
Canes - 29.4 (probably add ~2/3 million)
Caps - 37.9 million
Jackets - 28.6 million

WEST
Flames - 33.5 million
Oilers - 36.7 million
Canucks - 32.3 million
Jets - 31.4 million
Knights - 35.4 million
Avs - 39.4 million (Mac + Rantanen at 22 mill)
Blues - 33 million
Sharks 25.8 million
Stars - 39.9 (Benn and Sequin's awful contracts will kill them at 20 mill for another while)
Kraken - 26.5 million
Wild - 29,6 million (Includes Parise 6.3 buyout)
Kings - 33 million (last year of Kopitar's 10 million)
Preds - 29.5 million
Hawks - 25 million
Ducks - 20 million
Yotes - 22 million

Lots of these teams aren't comparable, lots of them are. With the work needed elsewhere on the roster, I don't think the Sens should be committing to a top 2 leaguewide payroll for their top 6 forwards.

I get 46 just looking at the Leafs....and the big 4 are the problem because the other two, whoever they are, really aren't top 6.

 

[BondraTime]

I get 46 just looking at the Leafs....and the big 4 are the problem because the other two, whoever they are, really aren't top 6.

40.6 for Matthews/Marner/Tavares/Nylander, and then 2.1 as of now for Jarnkrok, if they get a guy making 3 brings them to 43.6

That's a list of the top 5 forwards, not entire top 6. Should have clarified as I added the top 6 bit after posting.

A top 6 list pushes the Sens even higher up compared to other teams, at 44.2 million, as Batherson makes 5 mill, and most other teams 6th highest paid forward is making <4 million.

 

[SpezDispenser]

Sens top 5 forwards if DBC is signed at 8 million: 39.2 million. If you want to go top 6 in total, it becomes worse as most other teams 6th highest paid forward is <4, while Bathersonn is at 5.

EAST
Leafs - 43.1 million (Marner/Matthews/Tavares all 10+ mil)
Habs - 28.8 million
Lightning - 36.85 million
Bruins - 33.5 million
Sabres - 32.7 million
Wings - 25.5 million
Islanders - 35.6 million
Rangers - 36.6 million
Devils - 35.5 million (added 14 million onto their top 3 paid guys, likely will be lower)
Pens - 30.9 million
Flyers - 28.6 million
Panthers 34.5 million
Canes - 29.4 (probably add ~2/3 million)
Caps - 37.9 million
Jackets - 28.6 million

WEST
Flames - 33.5 million
Oilers - 36.7 million
Canucks - 32.3 million
Jets - 31.4 million
Knights - 35.4 million
Avs - 39.4 million (Mac + Rantanen at 22 mill)
Blues - 33 million
Sharks 25.8 million
Stars - 39.9 (Benn and Sequin's awful contracts will kill them at 20 mill for another while)
Kraken - 26.5 million
Wild - 29,6 million (Includes Parise 6.3 buyout)
Kings - 33 million (last year of Kopitar's 10 million)
Preds - 29.5 million
Hawks - 25 million
Ducks - 20 million
Yotes - 22 million

Lots of these teams aren't comparable, lots of them are. With the work needed elsewhere on the roster, I don't think the Sens should be committing to a top 2 leaguewide payroll for their top 6 forwards.

How many of those teams' top 6 players are 25 and under though? I really don't have the time to check right now, but I would LOATHE paying players like Horvat and Miller huge money contracts. Those 8 year deals are for under 25s only and the Sens are flush with those. Which means it comes down to preference. If you don't like DBC at 8 million, that's fine and fair, but if you do, then you've set your top 6 in stone (besides Giroux) for 7/8 years - or the prime of most of the young guys careers.

Also, as you eluded to (or someone did), the cap will be going up, so you really have to factor that into the equation.

Comes down to whether people think his 40 goal years in Chicago were a result of Kane - or if they think he can rebound from a down year this year and produce again at that rate.

 

[BondraTime]

How many of those teams' top 6 players are 25 and under though? I really don't have the time to check right now, but I would LOATHE paying players like Horvat and Miller huge money contracts. Those 8 year deals are for under 25s only and the Sens are flush with those. Which means it comes down to preference. If you don't like DBC at 8 million, that's fine and fair, but if you do, then you've set your top 6 in stone (besides Giroux) for 7/8 years - or the prime of most of the young guys careers.

Also, as you eluded to (or someone did), the cap will be going up, so you really have to factor that into the equation.

Comes down to whether people think his 40 goal years in Chicago were a result of Kane - or if they think he can rebound from a down year this year and produce again at that rate.

DBC will be starting his UFA contract at 26/7, not 25. Horvat will be in his 28 year old season starting his. Very, very little difference.

Most of the high paid players are in that age range, or on soon expiring deals with the exceptions of a few teams like Pitts, Washington, TB, CGY.

The Thomson's, Cozens, Hughes, Petterson, Hischier, Barzel, Connor, Fiala, Robertson, Hintz, Rantanen types are the guys who are atop many their teams pay scales. Then there is the old guard who are coming to the end of their deals like Crosby, OV, Kopitar, etc.

 

[SpezDispenser]

DBC will be starting his UFA contract at 26/7, not 25. Horvat will be in his 28 year old season starting his. Very, very little difference.

Well, 2 years difference. So 33 years old vs 35 years old @ 8 million, but yes, I forgot about his RFA contract.

Hopefully we'd be signing him from 25 to 33 though, not real interested in paying huge money past that age.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Sens top 5 forwards if DBC is signed at 8 million: 39.2 million. If you want to go top 6 in total, it becomes worse as most other teams 6th highest paid forward is <4, while Bathersonn is at 5.

EAST
Leafs - 43.1 million (Marner/Matthews/Tavares all 10+ mil)
Habs - 28.8 million
Lightning - 36.85 million
Bruins - 33.5 million
Sabres - 32.7 million
Wings - 25.5 million
Islanders - 35.6 million
Rangers - 36.6 million
Devils - 35.5 million (added 14 million onto their top 3 paid guys, likely will be lower)
Pens - 30.9 million
Flyers - 28.6 million
Panthers 34.5 million
Canes - 29.4 (probably add ~2/3 million)
Caps - 37.9 million
Jackets - 28.6 million

WEST
Flames - 33.5 million
Oilers - 36.7 million
Canucks - 32.3 million
Jets - 31.4 million
Knights - 35.4 million
Avs - 39.4 million (Mac + Rantanen at 22 mill)
Blues - 33 million
Sharks 25.8 million
Stars - 39.9 (Benn and Sequin's awful contracts will kill them at 20 mill for another while)
Kraken - 26.5 million
Wild - 29,6 million (Includes Parise 6.3 buyout)
Kings - 33 million (last year of Kopitar's 10 million)
Preds - 29.5 million
Hawks - 25 million
Ducks - 20 million
Yotes - 22 million

Lots of these teams aren't comparable, lots of them are. With the work needed elsewhere on the roster, I don't think the Sens should be committing to a top 2 leaguewide payroll for their top 6 forwards.

Great post.

DeBrincat will probably rebound next season and go back to 30-40G but it's a question of how to allocate our limited resources.

Might be better off adding a decent middle 6 forward instead of DeBrincat and then allocating the cap savings towards a good goalie.

 

[SpezDispenser]

It comes down to if management thinks this is a guy they want as a core player going forward. The cap will rise, we've set ourselves up quite nicely with a good forward group, good defence and really only a hole at goalie.

Is DBC a core player? Will he be a guy that will come in next season and perhaps play with Stutzle and go back to 40 a year? If not, then yes, trade him and look for another player. If yes, then try to sign him and call it a day.

We're really close. So, it comes down to how management feels (which in itself is scary).

 

[bicboi64]

Sens top 5 forwards if DBC is signed at 8 million: 39.2 million. If you want to go top 6 in total, it becomes worse as most other teams 6th highest paid forward is <4, while Bathersonn is at 5.

EAST
Leafs - 43.1 million (Marner/Matthews/Tavares all 10+ mil)
Habs - 28.8 million
Lightning - 36.85 million
Bruins - 33.5 million
Sabres - 32.7 million
Wings - 25.5 million
Islanders - 35.6 million
Rangers - 36.6 million
Devils - 35.5 million (added 14 million onto their top 3 paid guys, likely will be lower)
Pens - 30.9 million
Flyers - 28.6 million
Panthers 34.5 million
Canes - 29.4 (probably add ~2/3 million)
Caps - 37.9 million
Jackets - 28.6 million

WEST
Flames - 33.5 million
Oilers - 36.7 million
Canucks - 32.3 million
Jets - 31.4 million
Knights - 35.4 million
Avs - 39.4 million (Mac + Rantanen at 22 mill)
Blues - 33 million
Sharks 25.8 million
Stars - 39.9 (Benn and Sequin's awful contracts will kill them at 20 mill for another while)
Kraken - 26.5 million
Wild - 29,6 million (Includes Parise 6.3 buyout)
Kings - 33 million (last year of Kopitar's 10 million)
Preds - 29.5 million
Hawks - 25 million
Ducks - 20 million
Yotes - 22 million

Lots of these teams aren't comparable, lots of them are. With the work needed elsewhere on the roster, I don't think the Sens should be committing to a top 2 leaguewide payroll for their top 6 forwards.

Very cool break down. Aside from breaking down where we'd be, it gives some perspective as to where other teams are and I hope we learn from them. Stars look the scariest lol

Looking forward to seeing some other teams hopefully overpay their forwards. Stupid Buffalo got some nice value deals but hoping Skinner stops playing the contracts worth

 

[UglyPuckling]

FWIW.

$82,499,880.

Easy enough to move players in or out and see what the total is.

 

[Alex1234]

Almost a Gordie last night

 

[Micklebot]

FWIW.

$82,499,880.

Easy enough to move players in or out and see what the total is.

View attachment 678933

I don't think we move out Joseph, not that I'm against it but I just feel like Dorion won't be ready to give up on him yet

I'm also hopeful they bring the cap up a touch higher than the 83.5 number, I just can't see them not coming to an agreement to smooth out the rise, we should be fine to sign DeBrincat,