Player Discussion Alex DeBrincat

[Sens of Anarchy]

Debrincat is a complimentary winger who is quite good but will be amongst the highest, if not the highest paid player on the team. I’m not sure if you are aware but the NHL has a salary cap, and signing Debrincat means entering next year with Forsberg/Sogaard, having a bottom 6 that doesn’t produce much filled players who are either really young and cheap or really bad and cheap.

I want to win a cup not have a completely unbalanced roster that only looks good on paper because of the top of the lineup.


Ehlers injuries are a concern.

Its a tough message to get through.

 

[SensFactor]

If we end up moving DBC, I hope we get a top D prospect in return.

 

[Ice-Tray]

A team that needs to make the playoffs should not be banking on Forsberg/Sogaard with nothing behind them. That’s just asking to miss the playoffs for a 7th straight season.

I challenge you to put together a playoff roster that includes Debrincat at an 83.5M cap

It’s been done countless times already this season.

Thankfully it’s not my job to put together the roster, and I suspect the cap will go up in the off season as well.

Regardless, I have zero interest in trimming the top level talent to fit more bottom six talent for one tight season. That’s not where I would pinch at all.

As for goalies, to me the UFA guys will all cost too much and come with just as many question marks as the guys we have. Except, we have seen Soggy put together several solid starts now when pressure has never been higher, and we have watched a full season for Forsberg already. It’s not the most inspiring duo at the moment, but the potential is there for me.

Whats asking to miss the playoffs to me is the simple matter of downgrading talent where we needed it, to gamble that an available and costly UFA goalie will be better than what we have. we have no need for more middle six players at the moment, or should not be a priority over Cat, and neither should middling get tender. Been there done that, twice now.

We can agree to disagree, but I see guys looking to shed the Cat at a low point, which is still 25 goals and 60 points, at a time when we should be using that as ammunition to sign him to a deal that fits the team pay structure.

Its a tough message to get through.

It’s because it’s smoke and mirrors, it’s doesn’t go though anything. Just think, he’ll get signed and it will be another reason for you to grump, along with DJ and Dorion being back. Happy times ahead my friend!

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

It’s been done countless times already this season.

Thankfully it’s not my job to put together the roster, and I suspect the cap will go up in the off season as well.

Regardless, I have zero interest in trimming the top level talent to fit more bottom six talent for one tight season. That’s not where I would pinch at all.

As for goalies, to me the UFA guys will all cost too much and come with just as many question marks as the guys we have. Except, we have seen Soggy put together several solid starts now when pressure has never been higher, and we have watched a full season for Forsberg already. It’s not the most inspiring duo at the moment, but the potential is there for me.

Whats asking to miss the playoffs to me is the simple matter of downgrading talent where we needed it, to gamble that an available and costly UFA goalie will be better than what we have. we have no need for more middle six players at the moment, or should not be a priority over Cat, and neither should middling get tender. Been there done that, twice now.

We can agree to disagree, but I see guys looking to shed the Cat at a low point, which is still 25 goals and 60 points, at a time when we should be using that as ammunition to sign him to a deal that fits the team pay structure.


It’s because it’s smoke and mirrors, it’s doesn’t go though anything. Just think, he’ll get signed and it will be another reason for you to grump, along with DJ and Dorion being back. Happy times ahead my friend!

always a pleasure reading posts from the cheap seats lol... Keep up the studies someday you'll get there if you can rid yourself of what you think you know now.

 

[SlapJack]

But I mean we could get TWO bottom six wingers instead though.

Maybe 3 or 4 if you play your cards right!

 

[Hale The Villain]

Yeah I like the idea of downgrading our talent as well!

Just think of how much room we have to fill the bottom six, hell even some of the top six, with more lesser players. That’s how you win in the NHL right? Trade high end skill players for lots of less skilled players who can play on lower lines, and stifle room for prospects and such.

I makes me chuckle to see folks actively wanting to make us worse, the second we start to get better.

Depth scoring is very important.

Look at the success Seattle has had this year offensively, despite their best forward being Jared McCann, who would probably rank 7th on our forward depth chart when everyone is healthy.

They've outscored the Sens handily with far less top-end talent because each one of their lines can help contribute offensively, while the Sens have only 2 lines that can do the same.

We would have been much better off had Dorion played it safe and re-signed Paul and Brown instead of throwing more money (not to mention a 7th overall pick) at DeBrincat and Joseph.

 

[Ice-Tray]

always a pleasure reading posts from the cheap seats lol... Keep up the studies someday you'll get there if you can rid yourself of what you think you know now.

Always the curmudgeon… Just tired attempts from a tired poster. Maybe go for a walk? There’s more to life than social media you’ll find

Maybe 3 or 4 if you play your cards right!

Let’s get them aaaalllllllll!

 

[GCK]

@Ice-Tray

My concerns about going in to next season with Forsberg and Sogaard is that there is no one trustworthy behind them when one or both get hurt. Getting even a one year UFA so that we can keep Sogaard in reserve provides much needed depth in a critical position.

 

[Ice-Tray]

@Ice-Tray

My concerns about going in to next season with Forsberg and Sogaard is that there is no one trustworthy behind them when one or both get hurt. Getting even a one year UFA so that we can keep Sogaard in reserve provides much needed depth in a critical position.

I hear you, and it’s definitely a gamble to some degree, I agree.

I guess after the goaltending attempts we’ve made lately, I‘m more worried that the next guy won’t be great, but this time it could cost us Cat, who is a great player for us.

I’d rather take the gamble, see if Soggy can take the next step on a more permanent level, and I like the stability that Forsy usually brings.

Getting a sure thing goalie always seems next to impossible.

 

[UglyPuckling]

A team that needs to make the playoffs should not be banking on Forsberg/Sogaard with nothing behind them. That’s just asking to miss the playoffs for a 7th straight season.

I challenge you to put together a playoff roster that includes Debrincat at an 83.5M cap

I don't think some posters like dealing with the numbers. It seems to be viewed as part of being a "bad fan" I think based on conversation that I had.

Also, regarding backup goalies, one of my past posts had a list of free agent goalies. I think the mean (might have been average versus a mean, can't remember) price was about $2.1 m based on their current contracts.

It seems to me that so much depends on Forsberg being healthy and what the cap ceiling will be next year.

 

[GCK]

I don't think some posters like dealing with the numbers. It seems to be viewed as part of being a "bad fan" I think based on conversation that I had.

Also, regarding goalies, one of my past posts had a list of free agent goalies. I think the mean (might have been average versus a mean, can't remember) price was about $2.1 m based on their current contracts.

It seems to me that so much depends on Forsberg being healthy and what the cap ceiling will be next year.

If we move Debrincat, re-sign Hamonic at 2M for a year, add a guy like David Kampf at 1.5M, bring back Formenton for about 1.8M, give Brannstrom 2 x 1.2M keep either JBD or Thomson at 900K, Gauthier at about 850K

14 Forwards
Brady Stu Giroux
Formenton Norris Batherson
Greig Pinto Joseph
Kastelic Kampf Brassard
2 of Gauthier/Sokolov/Kelly other gets waived and sent to Belleville

7 D
Sanderson Zub
Chychrun Chabot
Brannstrom Hamonic
JBD

Forsberg
F. Andersen on a 1 year prove it or another 3M UFA

PP1
Brady
Stu
Batherson
Norris
Sanderson

PP2
Giroux
Pinto
Greig/Formenton
Chychrun
Chabot

Gives us some depth IMO.

 

[Ice-Tray]

If we move Debrincat, re-sign Hamonic at 2M for a year, add a guy like David Kampf at 1.5M, bring back Formenton for about 1.8M, give Brannstrom 2 x 1.2M keep either JBD or Thomson at 900K, Gauthier at about 850K

14 Forwards
Brady Stu Giroux
Formenton Norris Batherson
Greig Pinto Joseph
Kastelic Kampf Brassard
2 of Gauthier/Sokolov/Kelly other gets waived and sent to Belleville

7 D
Sanderson Zub
Chychrun Chabot
Brannstrom Hamonic
JBD

Forsberg
F. Andersen on a 1 year prove it or another 3M UFA

PP1
Brady
Stu
Batherson
Norris
Sanderson

PP2
Giroux
Pinto
Greig/Formenton
Chychrun
Chabot

Gives us some depth IMO.

That’s just a downgrade of a roster though. You’re paying a backup goalie who may not even be better than soggy let alone Forsberg, and bringing in a 4th line player that we don’t need at all as we have guys in Belleville at worst who deserve a shot.

Formy is a huuuuge question mark, and we take a massive hit on goalscoring.

I’m just really not seeing the upside here. I’d rather not have Freddy, and move Joseph if we really need to create the space.

Patience is the name of the game here. Keep the best players we have, and then add as the cap grows. I’m more than tired of wasting time on washed up goalies.

 

[Ice-Tray]

I don't think some posters like dealing with the numbers. It seems to be viewed as part of being a "bad fan" I think based on conversation that I had.

Also, regarding backup goalies, one of my past posts had a list of free agent goalies. I think the mean (might have been average versus a mean, can't remember) price was about $2.1 m based on their current contracts.

It seems to me that so much depends on Forsberg being healthy and what the cap ceiling will be next year.

Eh, I think that the roster creation and cap spreadsheets are fun, but that’s all they are at the end of the day. There’s not a whole lot of real life value beyond being able to see that something needs to happen.

We don’t know what the final cap number will be, we don’t know what guys will be willing sign for, we don’t know what guys are able to be moved, and we don’t even know if cat wants to stay.

At the end of the day trying to play capologist with none of the fluid information is not something to hang one’s hat on. Like I said, fun to read, cool to do for some, but that’s the extent of it

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

I'm seeing a lot of 8x8 projections from fans, but is that really realistic?

He really feels more like a $6 or $6.5x8 player. Any way he signs for that?

 

[Gil Gunderson]

I'm seeing a lot of 8x8 projections from fans, but is that really realistic?

He really feels more like a $6 or $6.5x8 player. Any way he signs for that?

I have a really hard time seeing it. 7.8 mil might be the lowest I can see him signing for, and that's still unlikely IMO.

 

[bert]

When did Ryan ever drive a line as part of the Sens? I'd argue the only time Ryan ever really flirted with his Anaheim days was when he was on the MoToR line with MacArthur and Turris and I'd argue MacArthur was the driving force on that line

2017 playoff run.

 

[Ice-Tray]

I'm seeing a lot of 8x8 projections from fans, but is that really realistic?

He really feels more like a $6 or $6.5x8 player. Any way he signs for that?

That’s not even remotely reasonable for a 25 goal 60 point 24 year old guy in a ‘down season’.

Now we want DBC to sign an insane sweet deal like Batherson?

I dont think some folks know what we have here. I hope he wants to stay with the guys.

2017 playoff run.

That was his finest moment, over years of disappointment and underperformance due to expectations.

The Bobby Ryan story in Ottawa isn’t a pretty one.

 

[boxbox]

Debrincat is better than Ryan in every way possible. Shouldn’t even be a question.

Comparing Debrincat to Ryan and vise-versa is like comparing sports coupe to an SUV. In some ways one is better than the other and in some ways not. Debrincat is a 5'7 speedy winger and Ryan was a 6'2 power forward. Debrincat is a goal scorer primarily and that is what is expected of him, most goal scorers need a good set up guy because generating scoring chances from bad passes is hard, creating scoring chances for others is not part of their job description thats not to say they aren't qualified to do so. Ryan being much bigger allowed him to play a physical brand of hockey; hit, force turnovers , shield/protect the puck...that's basically what was expected of him and when he was on he was really good at doing so.

To suggest one has more skill then the other is tricky. How do you measure skill ? There are plenty of players in all sorts of pro sports that are extremly skilled but are average at best in terms productivity , just like there are productive players that aren't that skilled in comparison to others at the same competitive level. Its very unlikely a player picked 2nd overall isn't skilled. Top 3 picks in most drafts all had elite or near elite level skill sets. Its also very unlikely that a player picked 39th overall, became one of the top goal scorers over the past few seasons by being skill less.

 

[boxbox]

DeBrincat vs Ryan is interesting in that they both ended up being the 2nd line RW amongst a talented group of top 6 forwards. Points comparison just won't work, Ryan played in a lower scoring "era" and had so many injuries along with his off-ice battles. But I have to disagree in line driving capabilities, they're probably equal in that regard as well. DeBrincat does a lot of good things to push a line forward, he carries the puck into danger zones and creates chances regularly.

DeBrincat's issue this year is not his effort or skill, it's puck luck. When things aren't going right for goal scorers they're grabbing that stick tighter and forcing stuff or deferring to someone else to shoot if they haven't been having any success on their own. What has impressed me about DeBrincat is that he hasn't changed his game from a downturn of success, he knows what he can do well and keeps doing it. But he's missed open nets that he typically nails with ease, had spectacular saves rob him, and other weird stuff like not one but two goals called back in a 6 game period from that stupid offside rule. He's trucking through all that, but I would guess it's still affecting him mentally

People always look at players that are hot and bark about "regressing to the norm" in regards to a high shooting %, and they're not wrong most of the time. Well DeBrincat will progress to his norm later. He's shooting at 10% when his career average is 14.4%. Of his 6 season in the NHL, 2 of them have had low pcts which were the anomalies, the other 4 he was shooting at 17.2% combined.

At a low end bump to 12.5% this year he'd have 6 more goals for 30 in total, at 15% it would be 12 more goals for 36. 30 goals puts him almost top 40 in the league, 36 goals would put him top 20.

Putting these numbers in terms of salary and not using the most scientific method but something to put it into perspective:
His actual league rank in goals with 24 is 73rd. 73rd highest paid forward makes $6M
League rank for 30 goals is 43rd. 43rd highest paid forward makes $7.75M
League rank for 36 goals is a range of forwards tied from 15th to 20th. 15th to 20th range in salary rank is $9.2-9.5M

And just for shits and giggles, he's 62nd in forward points, 62nd highest paid forward makes $6.5M. His cap hit this year is 6.4. So he's having a down year and producing what's reasonably expected for his salary cap hit. He signs for $8M and gets closer to his career numbers, it's almost a great deal.

the whole team seems snake bitten...for much of the season the Sens were VIP members at leagues TOP 5 worse team shooting % club

 

[JD1]

@Ice-Tray

My concerns about going in to next season with Forsberg and Sogaard is that there is no one trustworthy behind them when one or both get hurt. Getting even a one year UFA so that we can keep Sogaard in reserve provides much needed depth in a critical position.

Maybe the answer to that is a veteran for the AHL squad. Sure there are goalie injuries but our situation this year is an anomaly with both guys hurt.

 

[JungleBeat]

Comparing Debrincat to Ryan and vise-versa is like comparing sports coupe to an SUV. In some ways one is better than the other and in some ways not. Debrincat is a 5'7 speedy winger and Ryan was a 6'2 power forward. Debrincat is a goal scorer primarily and that is what is expected of him, most goal scorers need a good set up guy because generating scoring chances from bad passes is hard, creating scoring chances for others is not part of their job description thats not to say they aren't qualified to do so. Ryan being much bigger allowed him to play a physical brand of hockey; hit, force turnovers , shield/protect the puck...that's basically what was expected of him and when he was on he was really good at doing so.

To suggest one has more skill then the other is tricky. How do you measure skill ? There are plenty of players in all sorts of pro sports that are extremly skilled but are average at best in terms productivity , just like there are productive players that aren't that skilled in comparison to others at the same competitive level. Its very unlikely a player picked 2nd overall isn't skilled. Top 3 picks in most drafts all had elite or near elite level skill sets. Its also very unlikely that a player picked 39th overall, became one of the top goal scorers over the past few seasons by being skill less.

Just because Ryan was 6’2 and lazy /slow doesn’t mean he was a power forward. Probably one the the weakest guys on the ice tbh.

Also, Ryan was expected to score and not be invisible for all his years in Ottawa. Not just shield the puck which he was awful at. Thankfully the Bobby Ryan years in Ottawa are done. Debrincat doesn’t seem to be a distraction in the locker room as well unlike BR9

 

[RickyLafleur]

If we end up moving DBC, I hope we get a top D prospect in return.

Not another Stone for Brannstrom situation please.

 

[SpezDispenser]

I'm seeing a lot of 8x8 projections from fans, but is that really realistic?

He really feels more like a $6 or $6.5x8 player. Any way he signs for that?

Zero chance. He's a proven 40 goal guy, 75 point guy. 8 is a bargain for him because of a down year.

 

[ottawah]

I'm seeing a lot of 8x8 projections from fans, but is that really realistic?

He really feels more like a $6 or $6.5x8 player. Any way he signs for that?

Depends on the players thought but as an agent I would advise against it. The salary cap, if it budges, will be minimal this year. But the year after its likely to move upwards of 8M, meaning more money especially for FAs. Take the 9M for next year then hit free agency as the cap shoots up. All things equal you are likely looking at 10M extra by waiting and you can pick your team. Plus he has not had the greatest of years by his standards, better off regrouping for next year. Its a risk, he could hurt his value, but its hard to see that happening given his history.

But if he likes it here and decides thats as important than the extra money, maybe he would stay.

 

[GCK]

Maybe the answer to that is a veteran for the AHL squad. Sure there are goalie injuries but our situation this year is an anomaly with both guys hurt.

If one guy gets hurt for 6 weeks we will need a 3rd goalie who can win games. A veteran signing would require waivers to go to the AHL. I truly believe 45-50 starts for Sogaard is important for his development and he can get that in Belleville. Good teams have depth.

Zero chance. He's a proven 40 goal guy, 75 point guy. 8 is a bargain for him because of a down year.

Who are his comparables that signed recently ?