Player Discussion Alex DeBrincat

[BondraTime]

Different American players have different reactions to playing here, no doubt. Heck, within the same family, you saw one Tkachuk brother pretty keen to leave a Canadian team, while his younger brother was happy to stay. Brady strikes me as a glass-half-full kind of guy who could find the positives out of living in Yellowknife, and I say that with admiration - those are the kind of people you want to be around in this world.

I base what I said about DeBrincat on some of his interviews. Unprompted, he always talks about the border, weather, etc. - he doesn't harp on it, but he does mention it. Am I reading too much into it? Maybe, but I also notice that he hasn't signed an extension either. How happy is his wife here? Happy wife, happy life, as they say - when guys leave Canada, a lot of the time it's because the wife wants to get home to the States. That was the case when Gaudreau wanted out of Calgary.

To me, the moment of truth comes between the end of the season and the draft - either they announce a DeBrincat extension in that time, or he's getting moved...

I’d Imagine they will be filing for team elected arbitration prior, needs to be done by June 15th prior to the draft.

They don’t want him to accept the QO, as it ties their hands. Arbitration extends their window to trade or sign until August.

The draft makes by far the most sense, but I envision them trying to hammer a contract until the bitter end should it come to it.

 

[Samsquanch]

Maybe the Bobby Ryan wound is still too fresh in my mind.

Funny enough that even though Debrincat is having a massive off year statistically, he's still going to eclipse Ryan's best season ever as a Senator playing with a rookie 2nd line Center. He's two years younger than Ryan was when he got here. And if hes going to sign his deal with us, it be 8 years later than when Ryan signed (ie the cap has gone up significantly since then), and for around the same money today...

Its almost comical to compare the two players and their situations. Even the most snake bitten version of Debrincat is a much better overall player than Ryan ever was. He's definitely more competitive and working harder than Bobby too, who usually needed an opponent to make him angry for him to wake up and be a big difference maker.

I really like Bobby Ryan, but it felt like he was already damaged goods in some ways before he even played his first game here. Sorta like Karlsson in SJ - the fit was never that great, but after the big trades were made, everyone just sorta went along with it....

Debrincat feels different. He genuinely feels like he has a lot more to give, fits into the core and can actually grow with the team and contribute in a meaningful way during a long-term deal here.

 

[JimmyApples]

If you wanna sign Debrincat, it woulda been nice to have the ownership in place before signing. You can probably bring the AAV down with a front loaded, signing bonus heavy deal.

 

[boxbox]

Its honestly a mystery how this team has one of the lowest shooting % in the league and a PP that ranked high as 2nd best in the league. Is every one that snake bitten this year ? The effort and chances seem to be there.

DeBrincat has a career 14.4% shooting percentage. Last year he was shooting at 15.2% the year before at 20.6%. With the Sens 10%, 2nd lowest % career wise. 24 goals under those circumstances is pretty solid. He has 241 shots this year so the chances and effort seem to be there as that his 2nd highest career total.

Whatever it is behind the low shooting % hopefully gets figured out because if he kept up his career average % he would have about 35 goals (41 career high)

The off year could be a blessing if he does resign. Hes a dangerous player and the type of player with the ability to be a game breaker even when invisible for most it; hes sneaky dangerous.

Norris being out for the year created so many "what if" scenarios; them playing together and the results that would yield being one of them

 

[JungleBeat]

Debrincat is better than Ryan in every way possible. Shouldn’t even be a question.

 

[bert]

Ya you got to figure, no long term deals are getting done until new owner, they may be allowed to approve a signing , if officially team has to changed hands yet.

If the ownership change isn't completed before they have to qualify him the sens are screwed. Moment they do he is gone and has next to 0 value.

 

[bert]

Debrincat is better than Ryan in every way possible. Shouldn’t even be a question.

I dunno about that. Ryan could create something out of nothing and was far more physical. Not saying Ryan was better but there were some aspects to his game that could be. From a talent perspective I don't see a big difference. Debrincat is quite clearly much more dedicated off the ice. But I don't think at his peak he is capable of driving a line the way Ryan was. His skillset is limited. Debrincat needs someone really good to carry the puck and set him up. Ryan was capable of driving a line it just didn't happen very often. Debrincat has better linemates this year than Ryan ever did in Ottawa so I don't agree with the linemate excuse. Also comparing production when there is almost 2 goals a game being scored right now is tough.

That being said Debrincat is a better player but the difference isn't as astronomical as some are suggesting. Ryan battled injuries and alot of off ice issues. He really stepped up in 2017 and was a star for this team. Won't forget that.

 

[JD1]

Terrible argument, but what you'd expect from Sens twitter.

When Norris is back DeBrincat won't even be on that spot on the top PP, unless Stutzle is pushed to PP2, which would be crazy.

Idk about that.

Brady, Stu and a D man are givens on PP1. You could put Norris and DeBrincat on opposite sides for one timers. Brady net front, Stu in the bumper. That leaves Batherson on PP 2.

There's lots of options.

Did you notice it was right handed Batherson that put that puck there for DeBrincat? I've commented several times on how much more difficult it is for an LD to tee it up like that for DeBrincat. Or LD Chabot teeing up Brady off the other side. The handedness of the D makes a huge difference on the one timers.

 

[Golden_Jet]

If the ownership change isn't completed before they have to qualify him the sens are screwed. Moment they do he is gone and has next to 0 value.

Ya I wrote that before I knew the timeline.
I alsways thought the process would get voted on at the June board of governors meetings before the draft. Now sounds like July maybe.
Possibly they can give approval to the sisters board, before officially changes hands.

 

[devbouz12]

Ya I wrote that before I knew the timeline.
I alsways thought the process would get voted on at the June board of governors meetings before the draft. Now sounds like July maybe.
Possibly they can give approval to the sisters board, before officially changes hands.

Surely the parties involved could oversee that and ensure it gets dealt with in a timely manner

 

[dmarc]

Debrincat is better than Ryan in every way possible. Shouldn’t even be a question.

Legit this season's pace is better than any season Ryan ever had with us, not close

Ryan never broke the 60pt barrier for us, DBC is there already and having a down year. We can't sign him at any cost but if hes willing to take 8.1 million ish then I'd do that 10/10

Is he worth more than Horvat? Offensively I would say yes but overall game maybe not. That's the current market benchmark I think

 

[GCK]

If the Jets start blowing things up I’d love to figure out a 3 way trade that sends out Debrincat and brings in Ehlers +

Ehlers is a zone entry demon with lower output but I am impressed when I watch him.

 

[Golden_Jet]

If the Jets start blowing things up I’d love to figure out a 3 way trade that sends out Debrincat and brings in Ehlers +

Ehlers is a zone entry demon with lower output but I am impressed when I watch him.

I like Ehlers but he misses to many games with injuries. I’d choose DBC.

 

[Ice-Tray]

I like Ehlers but he misses to many games with injuries. I’d choose DBC.

Yeah I like the idea of downgrading our talent as well!

Just think of how much room we have to fill the bottom six, hell even some of the top six, with more lesser players. That’s how you win in the NHL right? Trade high end skill players for lots of less skilled players who can play on lower lines, and stifle room for prospects and such.

I makes me chuckle to see folks actively wanting to make us worse, the second we start to get better.

 

[SlapJack]

I dunno about that. Ryan could create something out of nothing and was far more physical. Not saying Ryan was better but there were some aspects to his game that could be. From a talent perspective I don't see a big difference. Debrincat is quite clearly much more dedicated off the ice. But I don't think at his peak he is capable of driving a line the way Ryan was. His skillset is limited. Debrincat needs someone really good to carry the puck and set him up. Ryan was capable of driving a line it just didn't happen very often. Debrincat has better linemates this year than Ryan ever did in Ottawa so I don't agree with the linemate excuse. Also comparing production when there is almost 2 goals a game being scored right now is tough.

That being said Debrincat is a better player but the difference isn't as astronomical as some are suggesting. Ryan battled injuries and alot of off ice issues. He really stepped up in 2017 and was a star for this team. Won't forget that.

DeBrincat vs Ryan is interesting in that they both ended up being the 2nd line RW amongst a talented group of top 6 forwards. Points comparison just won't work, Ryan played in a lower scoring "era" and had so many injuries along with his off-ice battles. But I have to disagree in line driving capabilities, they're probably equal in that regard as well. DeBrincat does a lot of good things to push a line forward, he carries the puck into danger zones and creates chances regularly.

DeBrincat's issue this year is not his effort or skill, it's puck luck. When things aren't going right for goal scorers they're grabbing that stick tighter and forcing stuff or deferring to someone else to shoot if they haven't been having any success on their own. What has impressed me about DeBrincat is that he hasn't changed his game from a downturn of success, he knows what he can do well and keeps doing it. But he's missed open nets that he typically nails with ease, had spectacular saves rob him, and other weird stuff like not one but two goals called back in a 6 game period from that stupid offside rule. He's trucking through all that, but I would guess it's still affecting him mentally

People always look at players that are hot and bark about "regressing to the norm" in regards to a high shooting %, and they're not wrong most of the time. Well DeBrincat will progress to his norm later. He's shooting at 10% when his career average is 14.4%. Of his 6 season in the NHL, 2 of them have had low pcts which were the anomalies, the other 4 he was shooting at 17.2% combined.

At a low end bump to 12.5% this year he'd have 6 more goals for 30 in total, at 15% it would be 12 more goals for 36. 30 goals puts him almost top 40 in the league, 36 goals would put him top 20.

Putting these numbers in terms of salary and not using the most scientific method but something to put it into perspective:
His actual league rank in goals with 24 is 73rd. 73rd highest paid forward makes $6M
League rank for 30 goals is 43rd. 43rd highest paid forward makes $7.75M
League rank for 36 goals is a range of forwards tied from 15th to 20th. 15th to 20th range in salary rank is $9.2-9.5M

And just for shits and giggles, he's 62nd in forward points, 62nd highest paid forward makes $6.5M. His cap hit this year is 6.4. So he's having a down year and producing what's reasonably expected for his salary cap hit. He signs for $8M and gets closer to his career numbers, it's almost a great deal.

 

[GCK]

Yeah I like the idea of downgrading our talent as well!

Just think of how much room we have to fill the bottom six, hell even some of the top six, with more lesser players. That’s how you win in the NHL right? Trade high end skill players for lots of less skilled players who can play on lower lines, and stifle room for prospects and such.

I makes me chuckle to see folks actively wanting to make us worse, the second we start to get better.

Debrincat is a complimentary winger who is quite good but will be amongst the highest, if not the highest paid player on the team. I’m not sure if you are aware but the NHL has a salary cap, and signing Debrincat means entering next year with Forsberg/Sogaard, having a bottom 6 that doesn’t produce much filled players who are either really young and cheap or really bad and cheap.

I want to win a cup not have a completely unbalanced roster that only looks good on paper because of the top of the lineup.

I like Ehlers but he misses to many games with injuries. I’d choose DBC.

Ehlers injuries are a concern.

 

[Ice-Tray]

DeBrincat vs Ryan is interesting in that they both ended up being the 2nd line RW amongst a talented group of top 6 forwards. Points comparison just won't work, Ryan played in a lower scoring "era" and had so many injuries along with his off-ice battles. But I have to disagree in line driving capabilities, they're probably equal in that regard as well. DeBrincat does a lot of good things to push a line forward, he carries the puck into danger zones and creates chances regularly.

DeBrincat's issue this year is not his effort or skill, it's puck luck. When things aren't going right for goal scorers they're grabbing that stick tighter and forcing stuff or deferring to someone else to shoot if they haven't been having any success on their own. What has impressed me about DeBrincat is that he hasn't changed his game from a downturn of success, he knows what he can do well and keeps doing it. But he's missed open nets that he typically nails with ease, had spectacular saves rob him, and other weird stuff like not one but two goals called back in a 6 game period from that stupid offside rule. He's trucking through all that, but I would guess it's still affecting him mentally

People always look at players that are hot and bark about "regressing to the norm" in regards to a high shooting %, and they're not wrong most of the time. Well DeBrincat will progress to his norm later. He's shooting at 10% when his career average is 14.4%. Of his 6 season in the NHL, 2 of them have had low pcts which were the anomalies, the other 4 he was shooting at 17.2% combined.

At a low end bump to 12.5% this year he'd have 6 more goals for 30 in total, at 15% it would be 12 more goals for 36. 30 goals puts him almost top 40 in the league, 36 goals would put him top 20.

Putting these numbers in terms of salary and not using the most scientific method but something to put it into perspective:
His actual league rank in goals with 24 is 73rd. 73rd highest paid forward makes $6M
League rank for 30 goals is 43rd. 43rd highest paid forward makes $7.75M
League rank for 36 goals is a range of forwards tied from 15th to 20th. 15th to 20th range in salary rank is $9.2-9.5M

And just for shits and giggles, he's 62nd in forward points, 62nd highest paid forward makes $6.5M. His cap hit this year is 6.4. So he's having a down year and producing what's reasonably expected for his salary cap hit. He signs for $8M and gets closer to his career numbers, it's almost a great deal.

But I mean we could get TWO bottom six wingers instead though.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Debrincat is a complimentary winger who is quite good but will be amongst the highest, if not the highest paid player on the team. I’m not sure if you are aware but the NHL has a salary cap, and signing Debrincat means entering next year with Forsberg/Sogaard, having a bottom 6 that doesn’t produce much filled players who are either really young and cheap or really bad and cheap.

I want to win a cup not have a completely unbalanced roster that only looks good on paper because of the top of the lineup.


Ehlers injuries are a concern.

I really doubt that, I suspect he’ll slot in with the rest of the guys up front if he wants to stay. If he doesn’t want to stay, or wants to be the highest paid player on the team, then sure trade him.

Until then though, we are a much better team with him solidifying the top six.

In my opinion you’re drastically exaggerating the roster balance, besides, if the coaches goes to player pairings, then we could actually have good players on each line instead of lots of middle six guys that don’t actually lead teams to victory in the playoffs.

I’m very aware of the cap, I suspect it will be bumped up in the off season, and I’m also fine rolling with Sooogard and Forsberg to start given how Soggy has played and how Forsy can play. The bottom six is fine with Pinto and Jospeh on the third line with Grieg, and Kasty between two wingers of our choice, be it new 4th line players, or Goat and a guy like Soks.

The cap is going to start taking off after one year of tightness for us. It would be silly to manufacture excuses as to why we have to trade away a top line winger for one year of pressure that isn’t even bad enough to prevent his signing and filling out the squad.

Its a short sighted, knee jerk move in response to a down season, and in my opinion is in line with talk of trading Chabby.

 

[Tragedy]

I dunno about that. Ryan could create something out of nothing and was far more physical. Not saying Ryan was better but there were some aspects to his game that could be. From a talent perspective I don't see a big difference. Debrincat is quite clearly much more dedicated off the ice. But I don't think at his peak he is capable of driving a line the way Ryan was. His skillset is limited. Debrincat needs someone really good to carry the puck and set him up. Ryan was capable of driving a line it just didn't happen very often. Debrincat has better linemates this year than Ryan ever did in Ottawa so I don't agree with the linemate excuse. Also comparing production when there is almost 2 goals a game being scored right now is tough.

That being said Debrincat is a better player but the difference isn't as astronomical as some are suggesting. Ryan battled injuries and alot of off ice issues. He really stepped up in 2017 and was a star for this team. Won't forget that.

When did Ryan ever drive a line as part of the Sens? I'd argue the only time Ryan ever really flirted with his Anaheim days was when he was on the MoToR line with MacArthur and Turris and I'd argue MacArthur was the driving force on that line

 

[GCK]

I really doubt that, I suspect he’ll slot in with the rest of the guys up front if he wants to stay. If he doesn’t want to stay, or wants to be the highest paid player on the team, then sure trade him.

Until then though, we are a much better team with him solidifying the top six.

In my opinion you’re drastically exaggerating the roster balance, besides, if the coaches goes to player pairings, then we could actually have good players on each line instead of lots of middle six guys that don’t actually lead teams to victory in the playoffs.

I’m very aware of the cap, I suspect it will be bumped up in the off season, and I’m also fine rolling with Sooogard and Forsberg to start given how Soggy has played and how Forsy can play. The bottom six is fine with Pinto and Jospeh on the third line with Grieg, and Kasty between two wingers of our choice, be it new 4th line players, or Goat and a guy like Soks.

The cap is going to start taking off after one year of tightness for us. It would be silly to manufacture excuses as to why we have to trade away a top line winger for one year of pressure that isn’t even bad enough to prevent his signing and filling out the squad.

Its a short sighted, knee jerk move in response to a down season, and in my opinion is in line with talk of trading Chabby.

A team that needs to make the playoffs should not be banking on Forsberg/Sogaard with nothing behind them. That’s just asking to miss the playoffs for a 7th straight season.

I challenge you to put together a playoff roster that includes Debrincat at an 83.5M cap

 

[SpezDispenser]

8 X 8 please.

 

[Sens Vader]

he's not worth 8mil unless he significantly improves imo

 

[Answer]

DBC at 8 million?

Put Norris and DBC on the same line for 82 games? How many 5on5 points to they have together? Just think about it? 3rd guy no better than Batherson ( and Batherson would be the line driver on that line offensively making only 4.9 mill)

 

[GCK]

DBC at 8 million?

Put Norris and DBC on the same line for 82 games? How many 5on5 points to they have together? Just think about it? 3rd guy no better than Batherson ( and Batherson would be the line driver on that line offensively making only 4.9 mill)

Norris had 19 even strength goals in 66 games last year.

 

[aragorn]

DBC is a 60 pt player this yr with a rookie centre on a team that is trending into positive territory who could play next yr with a 50 pt centre. DBC - Norris - Batherson should be 60 pt players each if all three stay healthy for most of next season. The top line is a 70 pt line given that each of Tkachuk, Stutzle & Giroux have over 70 pts each. What they need now is more scoring & pt production from the bottom six, both Pinto & Formenton are 30 pt plus players already & better than anyone else we have in the bottom six now.

Pinto IMO has 50 pt production while Formenton has 40 pt potential coming into this yr before the incident. Add a goal scoring RW & that 3rd line could be the catalyst to push this team into the playoffs next season. They have several very good players/prospect that they should be able to create two decent bottom six lines. If Sokolov is not the answer for a scoring 3rd line RW then they have some assets to package together to bring in a good goalscoring RW like Owen Tippett as an example or bring C. Brown back at a cheaper price. If Formenton doesn't return they have Greig, Jarventie & Ostapchuk who are up & coming LWers.