Player Discussion Alex DeBrincat

[Micklebot]

A 1st, 2nd and 3rd might not be a high bar to reach in a return for DeBrincat this summer, but all 1sts aren't valued equally.

There's a massive difference in value between a 7th overall pick and a mid or late 1st.

It's likely if we trade DeBrincat we won't get anywhere close to what we gave up to get him, but that's sunk cost at this point.

Weak draft vs strong draft will help mitigate it a bit, but it still hurts.

 

[coladin]

They played well against the best team in the league. It shows they can rise to the occasion. They just can't do it consistently. That 5 on 3 for the Bruins was B.S. The refs gift wrapped the W for the Bruins.

I think Batherson being the line driver helped both Pinto and Cat. Pinto was very good as well. Just a much better line that, with Drake playing like that, may break out in the nick of time

 

[BondraTime]

Weak draft vs strong draft will help mitigate it a bit, but it still hurts.

Won’t help mitigate it much I don’t think. Outside of the top end, it’s the same as any other year.

It’s a very strong top end. It’s pretty well the same once you get past 10.

1st-~6th ish definitely has way, way more value this year.

When you’re getting into 20-30, the values are basically negligible.

2022 - Jiri Kulich, Liam Ohgren, Owen Pickering, Isaac Howard, Noah Ostland, Denton Mateychuk, Liam Bischel

2023 - (obviously a general prediction) Charlie Stramel, Gabe Perrault, Quentin Musty, Oliver Bonk, Daniel But, Lukas Dragicivic, Ethan Gauthier

There really isn’t much/any difference in the quality of guys that may be available or ranked from 17-32 compared to last year.

Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, Mitchkov, Benson and Smith all go 1st last year in my opinion. The top end absolutely is no comparison, and will forever be the reason the draft was so much better than 2022.

Same with the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Will be guys available in the 2nd that are very good, and for some inexplicable reason falls (Luneau in 2022 for example, would be pushing top 10 in this draft if he were a late birthday and being available at the end of the 2nd). Don’t think the depth of this draft offers any team anymore chance of grabbing a good player than any other year.

Top 5 picks are undoubtedly better, by an absolutely ginormous amount. I think the 6-12ish is better as well, by a smaller amount. After that, it’s like any other year. Don’t think this is going to be a 2003/2015 draft depth wise, it just has the absolutely stacked top end.

 

[Micklebot]

Won’t help mitigate it much I don’t think. Outside of the top end, it’s the same as any other year.

It’s a very strong top end. It’s pretty well the same once you get past 10.

1st-~6th ish definitely has way, way more value this year.

When you’re getting into 20-30, the values are basically negligible.

2022 - Jiri Kulich, Liam Ohgren, Owen Pickering, Isaac Howard, Noah Ostland, Denton Mateychuk, Liam Bischel

2023 - (obviously a general prediction) Charlie Stramel, Gabe Perrault, Quentin Musty, Oliver Bonk, Daniel But, Lukas Dragicivic, Ethan Gauthier

There really isn’t much/any difference in the quality of guys that may be available or ranked from 17-32 compared to last year.

Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, Mitchkov, Benson and Smith all go 1st last year in my opinion. The top end absolutely is no comparison, and will forever be the reason the draft was so much better than 2022.

Same with the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Will be guys available in the 2nd that are very good, and for some inexplicable reason falls (Luneau in 2022 for example, would be pushing top 10 in this draft if he were a late birthday and being available at the end of the 2nd). Don’t think the depth of this draft offers any team anymore chance of grabbing a good player than any other year.

Top 5 picks are undoubtedly better, by an absolutely ginormous amount. I think the 6-12ish is better as well, by a smaller amount. After that, it’s like any other year. Don’t think this is going to be a 2003/2015 draft depth wise, it just has the absolutely stacked top end.

Well that's disappointing... I really haven't been following this draft as close as I usually would...

 

[Hale The Villain]

Weak draft vs strong draft will help mitigate it a bit, but it still hurts.

I think the most likely pick by far based on what the Sens scouts typically look for was Kasper, who is going to be a good player but probably not a star, so I wasn't that upset about giving up the 7th overall pick.

But if we were going to pick Korchinski or Mintyukov then it's a stinger for sure. Both look like potential top pairing studs.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

A 1st, 2nd and 3rd might not be a high bar to reach in a return for DeBrincat this summer, but all 1sts aren't valued equally.

There's a massive difference in value between a 7th overall pick and a mid or late 1st.

It's likely if we trade DeBrincat we won't get anywhere close to what we gave up to get him, but that's sunk cost at this point.

let’s remember his career numbers were great, when he played with Kane, and not so much now in Ottawa without a player close to the calibre of Kane, so if he drops his AAV to a level suitable to the team, then signing him for 4 or 5 seasons might be palatable….. but he has the Trump card of taking the QO, and know that he’ll be traded before the Deadline and cash in as an UFA…..

 

[Alex1234]

let’s remember his career numbers were great, when he played with Kane, and not so much now in Ottawa without a player close to the calibre of Kane, so if he drops his AAV to a level suitable to the team, then signing him for 4 or 5 seasons might be palatable….. but he has the Trump card of taking the QO, and know that he’ll be traded before the Deadline and cash in as an UFA…..

He is going to be traded at the draft if no contract is signed before.

The gap between draft and TDL is massive value wise.

 

[bert]

I think the most likely pick by far based on what the Sens scouts typically look for was Kasper, who is going to be a good player but probably not a star, so I wasn't that upset about giving up the 7th overall pick.

But if we were going to pick Korchinski or Mintyukov then it's a stinger for sure. Both look like potential top pairing studs.

It's funny because the sens would have had 2 chances at Luneau who looks like he is just as good as Mintyukov or Krochinski and he was playing in their own back yard. Guys an absolute super star this year. Gatineau has won 21 games in a row. Ranked #1 in Canada and he is their best player.

 

[Big Muddy]

You have to hope that Dorion has a good idea what the Debrincat camp wants at this point. If we are going to dangle him, I sure hope that process starts soon if it hasn't started already. They got to get something back for him if he isn't part of our long term future.

I was a little wary with the idea that we'd get a bundle or big return right after the trade when that idea was floating around here. In retrospect, we moved the timeline up when being patient may have been the better move seeing as Debrincat wasn't really instrumental in achieving the playoffs this year (yes, a tinge of hindsight here).

If we let interested parties speak to the Debrincat camp, what kind of offer could we get? Could we get a middle of the roster player and a middling pick back? I guess I'm interested in what others think might happen here and the potential return.

 

[ottawah]

He is going to be traded at the draft if no contract is signed before.

The gap between draft and TDL is massive value wise.

It is, but if you go to the majority of teams in the league and offer him up with his contract status, you are getting an awful lot of no's around the league. Those not saying no are not offering a lot, likely well less than what we paid.

If he signs the QO, we get to the trade deadline and eat 50% then we may actually get a lot more.

Obviously if he was signed longer term on a decent deal it changes, but he is not. Right now teams view him as a 9M rental. That not a lot of value for what he brings to the table.

 

[Big Muddy]

It is, but if you go to the majority of teams in the league and offer him up with his contract status, you are getting an awful lot of no's around the league. Those not saying no are not offering a lot, likely well less than what we paid.

If he signs the QO, we get to the trade deadline and eat 50% then we may actually get a lot more.

Obviously if he was signed longer term on a decent deal it changes, but he is not. Right now teams view him as a 9M rental. That not a lot of value for what he brings to the table.

Yes, that's an alternative that I've also been pondering as well, and has gained more attention & momentum in my mind. Debrincat's $9 m will make it a very lean cap situation next season though unless the cap goes up above the $83.5 m. That's the risk.

I don't know what the Senators plan to do in the goaltending dept., but that subject is important & warrants attention. The GM (Pierre or whomever) is going to have a difficult summer I think.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Still feel like it's a complete no brainer for both sides to deal DeBrincat to Detroit for the NYI 1st and Fabbri/Kubalik. They'll sign him to a Fiala-type contract (7.5-8M for 7YRs).

They have 30M in cap space this summer with no one significant to re-sign. DeBrincat is Michigan-born, within their core age group, and they are in desperate need of high-end talent.

We get a cheaper replacement LW sniper that isn't nearly as good, but we open up some cap space to improve the team in other areas and get a replacement 1st to replenish the pipeline.

Would be surprised if he went anywhere else to be honest.

 

[HSF]

You have to hope that Dorion has a good idea what the Debrincat camp wants at this point. If we are going to dangle him, I sure hope that process starts soon if it hasn't started already. They got to get something back for him if he isn't part of our long term future.

I was a little wary with the idea that we'd get a bundle or big return right after the trade when that idea was floating around here. In retrospect, we moved the timeline up when being patient may have been the better move seeing as Debrincat wasn't really instrumental in achieving the playoffs this year (yes, a tinge of hindsight here).

If we let interested parties speak to the Debrincat camp, what kind of offer could we get? Could we get a middle of the roster player and a middling pick back? I guess I'm interested in what others think might happen here and the potential return.

Dorion can't do anything without new ownership in place

It makes sense both DBC and management to wait and see once ownership is in place. This type of deal will involve signing bonuses and perhaps a different structure to the salary over the years

Still feel like it's a complete no brainer for both sides to deal DeBrincat to Detroit for the NYI 1st and Fabbri/Kubalik. They'll sign him to a Fiala-type contract (7.5-8M for 7YRs).

They have 30M in cap space this summer with no one significant to re-sign. DeBrincat is Michigan-born, within their core age group, and they are in desperate need of high-end talent.

We get a cheaper replacement LW sniper that isn't nearly as good, but we open up some cap space to improve the team in other areas and get a replacement 1st to replenish the pipeline.

Would be surprised if he went anywhere else to be honest.

huge no thanks to fabbri who would just add another injury prone forward to our group

All that to get a first ? The sens don't really need that

 

[DrEasy]

Yes, that's an alternative that I've also been pondering as well, and has gained more attention & momentum in my mind. Debrincat's $9 m will make it a very lean cap situation next season though unless the cap goes up above the $83.5 m. That's the risk.

I don't know what the Senators plan to do in the goaltending dept., but that subject is important & warrants attention. The GM (Pierre or whomever) is going to have a difficult summer I think.

This team should be better next year, and so it could be at least in the playoff fight all the way to the deadline, so I don't see DBC being traded at the trade deadline. So in case he just signs the QO and we're competitive, we'll likely use him as our own rental and will lose him at the end of the year.

 

[Hale The Villain]

huge no thanks to fabbri who would just add another injury prone forward to our group

All that to get a first ? The sens don't really need that

The Sens don't need to re-sign DeBrincat for 7.5-8M on a long-term deal, and that may be the most value we'd be able to get back.

I'd take the 3-4M in savings from downgrading to Fabbri and allocate it towards a better goaltender. Hell I'd even take the NYI 1st and trade it if it means getting a legit #1. We need one of those far more than we need to keep DeBrincat.

 

[Adele Dazeem]

Still feel like it's a complete no brainer for both sides to deal DeBrincat to Detroit for the NYI 1st and Fabbri/Kubalik. They'll sign him to a Fiala-type contract (7.5-8M for 7YRs).

They have 30M in cap space this summer with no one significant to re-sign. DeBrincat is Michigan-born, within their core age group, and they are in desperate need of high-end talent.

We get a cheaper replacement LW sniper that isn't nearly as good, but we open up some cap space to improve the team in other areas and get a replacement 1st to replenish the pipeline.

Would be surprised if he went anywhere else to be honest.

I would want more than that. You're making a team competing for the same Playoff spots better. I would want Soderblom + that package.

 

[HSF]

The Sens don't need to re-sign DeBrincat for 7.5-8M on a long-term deal, and that may be the most value we'd be able to get back.

I'd take the 3-4M in savings from downgrading to Fabbri and allocate it towards a better goaltender. Hell I'd even take the NYI 1st and trade it if it means getting a legit #1. We need one of those far more than we need to keep DeBrincat.

Fabbri barely plays though. It would be almost dead space. We don't really need to have to worry about both Norris and Fabbri missing games next year


Much rather have DBC who I know will most likely play and then see whats in the goalie market for cheap to support Forsberg

Sens should look at moving other guys like Joseph to clear space who are not really vital

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

@Burrowsaurus you can ignore threads. Do you want to ignore this because people want to improve team depth and are willing to part with Debrincat if the ask is too high? IE not agreeing with you lol

 

[Cosmix]

I am of the opposite view as I don't think the options have to be QO or 8 years.

He could sign for $7.5 for years let's say and make bank while setting himself up for a final FA singing extravaganza if he gets back to his scoring ways.

I really hope GMPD explores that option as it doesn't preclude us from signing him again later (he will be more settled here, the team will presumably be on the upswing and making the playoffs, etc...).

Very, very tough situation to navigate.

Its a tough situation of the GM's making.

 

[Cosmix]

Formenton is way better than Joseph, Gauthier, Brown, Brassard etc

If the GM does not sign Formenton, he is a doofus. Oh wait!

If you don’t accept that good young players can have down seasons, then you end up giving up on them too early and lose out.

I think DBC is a great player and we shouldn’t be looking to trade away the good players we have.

Makes me shudder seeing trade proposals for quantity over quality all of a sudden. Or people wanting to get more draft picks.

Glad we have pros at the helm while we shoot the shit in here, because we lack typically lack a cohesive vision, patience, and are tremendously reactive and short sighted.

Scary to run a team like that.

I agree; however, we need experienced successful pros at the helm.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Fabbri barely plays though. It would be almost dead space. We don't really need to have to worry about both Norris and Fabbri missing games next year


Much rather have DBC who I know will most likely play and then see whats in the goalie market for cheap to support Forsberg

Sens should look at moving other guys like Joseph to clear space who are not really vital

If that's the worry then demand Kubalik instead. Shouldn't matter much to Detroit either way.

Forsberg is at best a middling starter and he's coming off of a terrible injury. We should go into next season with him as the backup if we're serious about trying to make the playoffs.

If Dorion didn't give Gustavsson away we'd have no need to find a goalie, but unfortunately it's now the biggest concern with the team going into next season and we'd be smart to invest significant resources to ensure it doesn't become a problem.

 

[Cosmix]

let’s remember his career numbers were great, when he played with Kane, and not so much now in Ottawa without a player close to the calibre of Kane, so if he drops his AAV to a level suitable to the team, then signing him for 4 or 5 seasons might be palatable….. but he has the Trump card of taking the QO, and know that he’ll be traded before the Deadline and cash in as an UFA…..

If he forces our hand and insists on his QO of $9M for 2023-24, then we should trade him asap, not wait until the TDL. If Debrincat is refusing to sign a longer term deal now at about $8M AAV, then trade him at the first opportunity, including now.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

@Burrowsaurus you can ignore threads. Do you want to ignore this because people want to improve team depth and are willing to part with Debrincat if the ask is too high? IE not agreeing with you lol

View attachment 674558

Yes I hate when people disagree with me and I want to block all of you because of it

 

[Golden_Jet]

Dorion can't do anything without new ownership in place

It makes sense both DBC and management to wait and see once ownership is in place. This type of deal will involve signing bonuses and perhaps a different structure to the salary over the years


huge no thanks to fabbri who would just add another injury prone forward to our group

All that to get a first ? The sens don't really need that

Ya you got to figure, no long term deals are getting done until new owner, they may be allowed to approve a signing , if officially team has to changed hands yet.

 

[Ice-Tray]

If the GM does not sign Formenton, he is a doofus. Oh wait!


I agree; however, we need experienced successful pros at the helm.

I am far more cautious when it comes this sentiment. I think change has just as good a likelihood of being disappointing.

Lots of Shite GMs out there, very few who have been successful. None have been successful without missteps along the way, and the current successful guys are employed.

If you operate from a perspective of hating the current management group, then any change must look good. Personally I love the team being built, love the squad on the ice, and that’s the deciding factor when it comes to evaluating the architect. I am concerned that a new outsider has just as much change of screwing up what has been clearly moving on the right direction as they are of making it better.

I also don’t see a team that has stagnated or taken steps backwards that needs a new direction from the top. When I perceive the team looking this way I will agree that change may be needed. For now it just looks like EM era hate still brewing underneath powering a drive for change when it’s not really needed.

Yes I hate when people disagree with me and I want to block all of you because of it

Do like I do and get blocked by everyone so it’s just the two of us in here arguing back and forth.