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Player Discussion Alex DeBrincat

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$8.15M AAV seems like the right offer for Debrincat.

Slightly above Norris as he's certainly proven more, but slightly below Tkachuk and Stützle as they're no doubt more important and valuable players.

It also factors in a slight Ottawa tax, since I don't think many teams will be lining up to pay him more than the $7.85 that Fiala got.
 
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DaveMatthew said:
$8.15M AAV seems like the right offer for Debrincat.

Slightly above Norris as he's certainly proven more, but slightly below Tkachuk and Stützle as they're no doubt more important and valuable players.

It also factors in a slight Ottawa tax, since I don't think many teams will be lining up to pay him more than the $7.85 that Fiala got.
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We also bought 3 RFA years from Norris while we'd be buying only one from Cat. I'd be surprised if we can get him locked up for less than 8.5. I'd probably be ok with it though since we already got the rest of the core locked up and the cap will be higher when it comes to extending Sanderson.
 
BondraTime said:
Absolutely, I was all over a signed Fiala, he's the better player.

Not sure the Sens want to go the arbitration route. Even with his down year, he'll still get 8+ million based on his past 2 seasosns, and no player likes getting brought through that process. Sens just went that route with Stone, and settled with the 1 year deal after not accepting his QO.

Debrincat has the name, and history, whereas Fiala had a 54 point season to his name aside from his 2022 season for his contract discussions.

DBC has multiple 40G seasons, and a 9 million dollar QO. He's already been valued as a 9 million dollar player, I'm sure his agent will expect him to be receiving 7 x 8.5+ deals at the minimum on the open market.
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Well, Fiala definitely helps our case in arbitration,

You look at M.Tkachuk getting 9.5 after a 40 g 100 pts season along with everything else he brings and try to justify 9 for Debrincat... Idk. He's not a UFA, he's not on the open market, if someone wants to offer sheet him, be my guest. He can run the risk of a one year deal to bring him to UFA, that's the leverage he has, and if that's the route he chooses we need to move on, because while he's a good player, I'm not sold on devoting that much cap room to a small scoring winger. If he wants 8.5+, we should move him.
 
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Gil Gunderson said:
We also bought 3 RFA years from Norris while we'd be buying only one from Cat. I'd be surprised if we can get him locked up for less than 8.5. I'd probably be ok with it though since we already got the rest of the core locked up and the cap will be higher when it comes to extending Sanderson.
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I cannot see any team giving him more than $8.5M. He's a good player, but is currently pacing for 28 goals and 70 points. And he's a 5'7 winger.

The reality is his production this year warrants ~$7M per season, but his track record will bump him up a bit more. Teams will definitely wonder if he's a 30-goal and 70-point guy away from Kane though.

Johnny Gaudreau just went through this. Not a ton of teams were in the market for him. Yes, he ended up getting $9.75M, but it was probably his 4th choice of city and he was coming off a 115-point season, not a 70-point one.

If the ask is above $8.5 you trade him and don't lose sleep over it.
 
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Ouroboros said:
This is pretty much the exact opposite of what Darren Dreger said recently. He seems to think that there's a growing sentiment that DeBrincat isn't interested in extending in Ottawa; he likened it to a Pierre-Luc Dubois type situation.

So who knows.
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Dreger is schrodingers analyst round these parts. He could be right, could be wrong. The outcome seems more driven by what people want to believe more than anything.
 
Brady and Stu help more than anything IMO. They are the 2 best players and effectively set the internal budget for contracts.

No way can DeBrincat get more than either of them. Plus if they want to be winners, taking a hair less to ensure you get better players around you is a good investment.
 
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Young scoring wingers with his pedigree get paid in this league. I don't think he's going to leave any money on the table when he's staring down the barrel at the most important contract of his lifetime. Whether he loves the city or not is mostly irrelevant if his agent is telling him "I can get you $10M+ AAV from x, y or z in 2 years' time."
 
OD99 said:
Brady and Stu help more than anything IMO. They are the 2 best players and effectively set the internal budget for contracts.

No way can DeBrincat get more than either of them. Plus if they want to be winners, taking a hair less to ensure you get better players around you is a good investment.
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Unfortunately the contract isn't related to the value of a player on a team compared to other players. It's related to the market value of these players. If Stutzle or Tkachuk we're UFAs and could test the market, they would make quite a bit more than what they're currently making. It's the same thing for Debrincat. Scorers are hard to find and turns out Debrincat has been one of the best in the league for the past few years and has a proven track record.

If he wants to test the market eventually he has the power to do the same thing that Stone did and go for a 1 year deal and then go to UFA and make more. I assume this is what'll happen. His QO is 9M so worst case he makes 9M next year and then tests the market and very likely makes that as a free agent. This is likely why teams weren't willing to give up that much for him in the summer.

Getting him at 8M a year or anything lower than 9 would be because he really wants to stay here and at the same time decide he won't leverage his situation. It seems unlikely. Now I agree that it isn't the best situation for us and I'm not sure if it'll work out long term. Next question becomes what can you get for him if you decide to trade and do you trade him during the summer if you can't sign him long term.
 
Boud said:
Unfortunately the contract isn't related to the value of a player on a team compared to other players. It's related to the market value of these players. If Stutzle or Tkachuk we're UFAs and could test the market, they would make quite a bit more than what they're currently making. It's the same thing for Debrincat. Scorers are hard to find and turns out Debrincat has been one of the best in the league for the past few years and has a proven track record.

If he wants to test the market eventually he has the power to do the same thing that Stone did and go for a 1 year deal and then go to UFA and make more. I assume this is what'll happen. His QO is 9M so worst case he makes 9M next year and then tests the market and very likely makes that as a free agent. This is likely why teams weren't willing to give up that much for him in the summer.

Getting him at 8M a year or anything lower than 9 would be because he really wants to stay here and at the same time decide he won't leverage his situation. It seems unlikely. Now I agree that it isn't the best situation for us and I'm not sure if it'll work out long term. Next question becomes what can you get for him if you decide to trade and do you trade him during the summer if you can't sign him long term.
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Of course his relative value to the players on the team matters. It’s really the only thing that matters for the Sens.

He isn’t a UFA so he doesn’t get market value because he isn’t able to test the market. He’ll be offered team based value, which will be inline with the other star players on the team, some of whom are better than he is.

He can either work along those lines or he can be traded to a different team with different internal salary valuations. His only leverage is to not negotiate and accept his QO, in which case he will be traded away.

If he wants to be part of a team salary structure then there is room for him. If he wants UFA money then he can walk himself to that with another team, it’s really that simple. There is no reason that we should be paying him a salary outside of our salary structure, and he has little leverage to make us do it.
 
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Boud said:
Unfortunately the contract isn't related to the value of a player on a team compared to other players. It's related to the market value of these players. If Stutzle or Tkachuk we're UFAs and could test the market, they would make quite a bit more than what they're currently making. It's the same thing for Debrincat. Scorers are hard to find and turns out Debrincat has been one of the best in the league for the past few years and has a proven track record.

If he wants to test the market eventually he has the power to do the same thing that Stone did and go for a 1 year deal and then go to UFA and make more. I assume this is what'll happen. His QO is 9M so worst case he makes 9M next year and then tests the market and very likely makes that as a free agent. This is likely why teams weren't willing to give up that much for him in the summer.

Getting him at 8M a year or anything lower than 9 would be because he really wants to stay here and at the same time decide he won't leverage his situation. It seems unlikely. Now I agree that it isn't the best situation for us and I'm not sure if it'll work out long term. Next question becomes what can you get for him if you decide to trade and do you trade him during the summer if you can't sign him long term.
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I get your points and agree but there is some precedent for teams having an internal budget and guys buying in.

Tampa and Bruins come to mind right away and even Colorado to an extent. Although you have Mac coming up for a big payday he is clearly a superstar and a C so the difference is clear.

I am hoping he buys into what the players are buying in to - long term success.

Will be interesting and I think we can get a good return for him if he doesn't fit but I like him and hope he becomes part of the core.
 
OD99 said:
I get your points and agree but there is some precedent for teams having an internal budget and guys buying in.

Tampa and Bruins come to mind right away and even Colorado to an extent. Although you have Mac coming up for a big payday he is clearly a superstar and a C so the difference is clear.

I am hoping he buys into what the players are buying in to - long term success.

Will be interesting and I think we can get a good return for him if he doesn't fit but I like him and hope he becomes part of the core.
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Guys take less in tampa cause of taxes. Previously the bruins there were guys who were making less than market value. that is about to change with Pasta.

I think the days of players taking much less than they are worth if they are UFAs are over.
 
HSF said:
Guys take less in tampa cause of taxes. Previously the bruins there were guys who were making less than market value. that is about to change with Pasta.

I think the days of players taking much less than they are worth if they are UFAs are over.
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That’s never really been a thing to begin with though.

Usually guys who hit UFA are guys that didn’t want to extend within their team’s budget structure, or the team didn’t see them fitting in said structure.

That or they were no longer wanted skill wise, or they wanted to test the market to get max dollars somewhere.

UFA guys rarely ever gave discounts unless they really wanted to go to a specific team. The entire premise seems to be to maximize the market dollar.
 
I can only think of Boeser, but has there been any other top 6 forward in recent memory who signed a long term deal below their qualifying offer?
 
bicboi64 said:
I can only think of Boeser, but has there been any other top 6 forward in recent memory who signed a long term deal below their qualifying offer?
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I think Barzal and Cerrili just did, but I could be wrong. Don't know if they were under the old or new QO rules, if it's the new ones they probably didn't.
 
Six Assets said:
8 x 8.5/9ish o_O for DBC. Would prefer to trade him, but he seems like a fan favourite for some reason. Will be interesting to see what the new ownership does with pressure to re-sign him.
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The thing is I’m not sure you would like to trade him when we assess where we will be with him and gone and giroux retired in a very very short time. Back to trying to find wingers. Which people say is easy. But truthfully. It isn’t. If you have a guy with a history of scoring 40 goals who loves it here and who gels really well with the group. Then you sign him
 
His down year might help us get a lower AAV- obviously his agent is going to go off of his previous numbers but if we can lock him up under 8.5/year I’m fine with that.

Don’t like him at 9/year though, and if he wants that then I hope we look to move him for a similar package to what we traded for him or a top four D.
 
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SixthSens said:
His down year might help us get a lower AAV- obviously his agent is going to go off of his previous numbers but if we can lock him up under 8.5/year I’m fine with that.

Don’t like him at 9/year though, and if he wants that then I hope we look to move him for a similar package to what we traded for him or a top four D.
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Yeah if we trade him we better be getting a top 1/2 D back (ie Karlsson, Weegar, Ekholm).
 
The beauty of Tim's contract is basically the same fashion that the Bruins were able to keep players in line for a long time thanks to underpriced contracts to Bourque, Bergeron, Marchand, etc...

There isn't a world where the agent can look at old/new ownership in the face and make a case why ADB should make more than Tkachuk or Stutzle, or Norris, for that matter
 
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TeamRenzo said:
I wouldnt be comfortable with him earning more than Brady or Tim
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Nobody would.

He'd be the 1st core UFA signing the team has made under Dorion.

None of the other guys had signed on. Stone, Duchene, Karlsson, Pageau, etc. And all signed very big deals.

Unfortunately, these contracts aren't as easy as the 3 year guys like Norris, Chabot, Stutzle, Tkachuk, etc.
 
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