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Player Discussion Alex DeBrincat

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I am so glad Ottawa fans are beginning to appreciate the Cat.
Chicago's loss is Ottawa's gain.
The Hawks got their Cups and we're now focused on the future.
I'm super happy Alex has found a good home with the Sens.
Here's hoping he can win a Cup with you guys!
ps Ottawa is my second favourite team.
pps .. my avatar is a shot during the Wakefield Canada Day parade in 2010 .. that's me with a wooden Stanley cup!
 
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Ice-Tray said:
I like the look of that, as I don’t see D being as big of an issue to be honest. If JBD can be the guy he was to start the season that’s a good complimentary partner, which is all I think we need at the moment. Further, if we have to pinch somewhere for a season until dead money starts coming off the books I’d rather do that than sacrifice a star winger who fits the team and window.
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There is two options that were cap compliant that I identified. The first one (post #1095) had better defense but Sogaard as the backup. The 2nd (more recent) had Talbot as one of the goalies and a weaker (less proven) defense. Both options had Debrincat & Zub on the roster.

There's always decisions to be made and pros & cons for each approach. For the most part, I've been staying out of the debate and have been just focused on playing with the numbers.

It just seemed odd that some posts (or posters) kept adding expensive players in their discussions or trade proposals without taking into account the salary cap. I guess that's what got me started with the spreadsheets in the first place.

I guess I focus on the details and the old "the cap is going up" is the antithesis of what I do. The devil is in the details. Even in a rising cap environment, a team can still make bad decisions on trades and acquiring players that don't manifest into problems for several years. Its happened to many teams before. One poster even took my spreadsheet and some of the numbers I had in it and claimed they had proven something despite the numerous assumptions I embed into these posts/speadsheets. That seemed the most odd.
 
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UglyPuckling said:
Talbot might want more as well. Things can work in both directions. You never know.


What does "stickie" mean? What does it do? I don't even know.
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Look near the top of a page
Below where it lists eg page 1,2,3….
See where it says Sticky threads
They stay at the top of a page
 
Golden_Jet said:
Look near the top of a page
Below where it lists eg page 1,2,3….
See where it says Sticky threads
They stay at the top of a page
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Oh, I see. A sticky thread stays at the top above the blue line & Normal Threads.

I guess I normally scroll down past that section to Normal Threads. I guess I've looked at Prospect Watch a couple of times, but other than that, never look up there.
 
UglyPuckling said:
LOL - good one! I like your sense of humour! :thumbu:

I got off my butt and looked it up.

Even strength = 3 goals & 8 assists (if I did it correctly).

So, 23 of his 30 points (76.6%) come from the PP.

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Uh... 3G plus 8 assists at ES =11 leaving 19 not 23 (also he has 4 ES goals according to Hockey reference and NHL.com, maybe you were doing 5v5 not ES, I think he has a 4v4 goal) so,
12/30 = 40% at ES or 36.666% at 5v5
18/30 = 60% on the PP
 
Micklebot said:
Uh... 3G plus 8 assists at ES =11 leaving 19 not 23 (also he has 4 ES goals according to Hockey reference and NHL.com, maybe you were doing 5v5 not ES, I think he has a 4v4 goal) so,
12/30 = 40% at ES or 36.666% at 5v5
18/30 = 60% on the PP
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I got the PP numbers from NHL.com, but I realize now that I added PP Goals (5) with PP points (18) to equal 23. I assumed incorrectly that the 18 referred to PP assists. My bad.

The other stats in the post were from Natural Stat Trick per the link I provided. Yes, those stats were 5v5.
 
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His playmaking, hustle and ability to fight for 50/50 pucks and win a good percentage of those battles as a smaller framed dude has been a very welcome surprise, but I’ve been a bit disappointed with the lack of finish like most people.

I think that without Patty Kane (who is one of the best playmakers of all time imo) he’s more of a 30-35 scorer at best if the stars align.

If we’re able to get him for 8M or under I’m down, but otherwise I’m not sure it’s worth it. It’s interesting though because Giroux comes off the books in 2 seasons and the cap will go up so we can probably afford Cat if the price is right.
 
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In a cap league, there's a cycle that a rebuild will follow.

Now the Senators are hitting that phase in the cycle where the young core have moved from their ELC to larger contracts. It gets more difficult to add pieces at that stage to improve the team.

The Debrincat situation seems parallel to when the Leafs added Tavares. So, it's been difficult to add difference makers to our roster since then. The Leafs have been tinkering at the edges of the roster for years because there's not much cap room. We argue endlessly on the Leafs board as to whether adding Tavares (some call him pyjama boy) was a smart move. Well, some I don't I suppose, but many of those tend to be fan boys.

We were fortunate that we were able to get some generational talent when we drafted Matthews & Marner. We were at the right place at the right time, and the draft lottery rules have changed since then making it more random on whether you'll get the 1st overall even when you finish last.

It's hard to win in this league even when you have drafted generational talent and spending cap is really important. I'm not certain that everything is comparable between the 2 teams (generational talent might be one element), but I do see some similarities between the 2 teams and the path the teams have found themselves on.
 
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Wondercarrot said:
Were you also surprised when Norris, Zub, Stutzle, Tkachuk, Batherson, and Chabot signed longterm deals?
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Only one that's somewhat surprising there is Zub, as he was the only upcoming UFA.

All the other guys were RFAs who couldn't walk away. Would have needed to take successive cheap bridge deals to leave early, which would have meant leaving many millions on the table compared to taking the 8M salaries they got immediately by signing long-term.

DeBrincat is an upcoming RFA but is only 1 year away from UFA. Has a lot more leverage than the other guys to choose his destination.
 
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Diatonic said:
In a cap league, there's a cycle that a rebuild will follow.

Now the Senators are hitting that phase in the cycle where the young core have moved from their ELC to larger contracts. It gets more difficult to add pieces at that stage to improve the team.

The Debrincat situation seems parallel to when the Leafs added Tavares. So, it's been difficult to add difference makers to our roster since then. The Leafs have been tinkering at the edges of the roster for the year because there's not much cap room. We argue endlessly on the Leafs board as to whether adding Tavares (some call him pyjama boy). was a smart move. Well, some I don't I suppose, but many of those tend to be fan boys.

We were fortunate that we were able to get some generational talent when we drafted Matthews & Marner. We were at the right place at the right time, and the draft lottery rules have changed since then making it more random on whether you'll get the 1st overall even when you finish last.

It's hard to win in this league even when you have drafted generational talent and spending cap is really important. I'm not certain that everything is comparable between the 2 teams (generational talent might be one element), but I do see some similarities between the 2 teams and the path the teams have found themselves on.
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I think there are quite a few differences between Tavares' and DeBrincat's situations.

Tavares was older, whereas DeBrincat is younger and has room to grow.

The Leafs got f***ed hard by the flat cap caused by the pandemic, whereas inflation is going to cause the cap to sky rocket in the next few seasons, which means the Sens are going to be getting very good value from the final years of the big contracts they just signed, like Stutzle and Norris. For example, Stutzle's $8.3m in 2028 is going to account for a pretty small percentage of the team's cap compared to the value he'll bring when he's at his absolute prime. That will mean lots of cap space to go around from 2024-2028 when our core players are at their peak. The Sens being able to lock down their core players for 7-8 years instead of 5-6 years like the Leafs make a HUGE difference, but also doing it when the cap looks like it's going up makes it even better.

Also, the Leafs signed Tavares right before they had to give contracts to Matthews, Marner and Nylander. The Sens already have their core locked down. The only major contract coming up will be Sanderson in 2024, which IMO is going to cause a bit of a squeeze for the 2024-2025 season as Giroux is still going to be under contract (that's why I argued that we should have only given Giroux a 2yr deal). But after that, the three years from 2025 to 2028 (when Chabot and Takchuk expire) should be the absolute peak of this core's shot at a Stanley Cup. Most of the core will still be under contract and will have absolute bargains of contracts (in team cap %), and will be at the peak of their careers. We would absolutely have the cap room to fill out the team's depth for deep playoff runs.
 
swiftwin said:
I think there are quite a few differences between Tavares' and DeBrincat's situations.

Tavares was older, whereas DeBrincat is younger and has room to grow.

The Leafs got f***ed hard by the flat cap caused by the pandemic, whereas inflation is going to cause the cap to sky rocket in the next few seasons .....
Click to expand...

Sure, Tavares was older, but it was the larger point I was trying to make versus the niggly details. Tavares has been great for us. The point was once you add that other big piece to your core, things get tight & more restrictive pretty quickly.

The cap was rising during and after we signed our core too until more recently. The further into the cycle you go, the more difficult it gets to do things that make a difference. That's the most important point I was making.

You'll always wonder when things got away from you when you hit that stage and of course big ticket additions add to that equation. I just saw some parallels or similarities with the Tavares situation even though the lesser details are not identical.

I would personally include Sanderson as part of your core and he hasn't got his long term, later cycle contract either. I'll guess he'll become your best defenseman very quickly.

I'll just leave it at that & wish you good luck.

As an aside, and seeing as how you mentioned inflation, the fed will keep raising interest rates as that's the only tool they have to fight inflation. That first hits things like the housing market, then stock evaluations, and then eventually employment (greater unemployment). That means there will be less discretionary spending, so who knows what impact that will have on league revenue.
 
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Tranquilo Naito said:
Just like people would have been surprised to see Zub sign a long term deal? Or Timmy to sign a long term deal? Or Norris to sign a long term deal? Or Brady to sign a long term deal? Or Chabot to sign a long term deal?

Assen na yo!
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No, not the same. You need to relax.

Wondercarrot said:
Were you also surprised when Norris, Zub, Stutzle, Tkachuk, Batherson, and Chabot signed longterm deals?
Click to expand...

No, no I wasn't.
 
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