Player Discussion Alex DeBrincat

Big Muddy

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Dec 15, 2019
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So, based on the feedback from the above posts, I have generated another 22-player roster for the 2023-24 season.

Here are some of the highlights and assumptions (important):
  • Chychrun has been added to the roster (per above)
  • Debrincat is resigned to a long term contract
  • Zaitsev has been subtracted. If there's a cost to do so (salary coming back from a cap dump, buyout) it's NOT included
  • Zub has been resigned to a $5m contact
  • Pinto is signed to a bridge contract
  • Grieg, JBD & other ELCs have been inserted into the roster
  • Formenton and Joseph are removed
  • Performance bonuses are NOT included
  • Sogaard is the backup net minder
*** One thing I'd be curious about is if we have Grieg, Pinto and Sanderson in the lineup, what are we using as trade bait to land Chychrun? Presumably it could cost some assets to dump Zaitsev as well. I'll leave it to others and their imaginations to deal with that.

View attachment 622388

This is the version I come up with whenever I do this as well. The bottom 6 outside of Pinto need to be stripped down to ELCs.
There is no other way to keep DeBrincat, Zub, and a new solid D (preferably UFA so we can keep pipeline full for ELCs)

There is more than enough talent in that top 7 IMO to supplement with Kastelic, Grieg, Crookshank, Ostpachuk, and a cheap vet here and there in some combination over the next 3 years of their ELCs

Joseph and Zaitsev moved out with asset where needed.
All future foreseeable cap increases go towards Pinto and Sanderson contracts.

I would go ahead with this model, no half measures here. You are either building to win or you aren’t.
Generally, your ideas and UP's are focused in the right direction. But, if Grieg, Pinto and Sanderson are in the lineup, what is the trade bait being used to acquire Chychrun? Looks like the poster that created the spreadsheet had visualized that issue. There's always a few assumptions that need to be made in an exercise like this. So, as you noted, if we go the Free Agency route, the RD's AAV would need to be $4.6 m or less.

Getting rid of Zaitsev is another consideration, and we'd have to hope that Sogaard is ready for NHL duty as well.
 
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Ice-Tray

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If you firmly believe that everything will work out and that Dorion had a good plan, you could show us your numbers and vision of how it would work out. It's not weird at all & it's actually simple. Maybe the last sentence of your post is the most revealing. By easy you mean being able to make statements/proclamations without backing anything up.
Lol, you’re a funny guy.

I didn’t say Dorion had a ‘good plan’, nor was I saying that ‘everything will work out’, I said they would sign DBC if he wants to stay, and had that in mind when they traded for him (obviously a hot take lol). See how that’s not at all what you wrote? See how you changed that to try and be nasty? Yeah that’s you in a nutshell.

Why in the world would I need to show numbers when Puckling has already made a beautiful spreadsheet (which I have complimented a few times now), and capfriendly also has all the salary numbers anyone would need to add up a salary. Saying that I think they plan on signing DBC, and obviously considered the cap implications for such a possibility is hardly a take where I ‘need to back it up’, it’s common sense, I shouldn’t even need to say it.

We all know that the numbers are very close, but room could be made by removing any number of players, which is also all dependent on what we sign players for to begin with. These fancy spreadsheets and ‘backed up’ opinions are filled with made up numbers and suppositions, and thus are worth little beyond pointing out the cap crunch, and the enjoyment the poster had in making them along with the ensuing discussions.

It’s just talk, not facts, and guessing, with a bunch of salary numbers coupled with a bunch of made up salary numbers as guesstimates. That’s your ‘backing it up’ on this topic.

So again, my premise stands without me having to take the time to make up a bunch of salaries and then add them to existing salaries, then pretending to remove a salary from the team if my pretend numbers don’t fit under the cap. I’m cool with other people playing with that, but I don’t feel the need to because it isn’t anymore real than what I said.

You’ve provided nothing here besides once again piggybacking into a discussion in hopes of taking some passive aggressive jabs at me while puckling and I were being rather civil. It’s pathetic, but sadly, expected.

Now run along, I’ve spent all the time I’m going to spend on you.
 

SpezDispenser

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Aug 15, 2007
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I was skeptical for a bit, can't help it when a high octane player comes in and doesn't quite perform as well as we all hoped, but he's picked it up huge. Now...it's hard to imagine not wanting to re-sign him and add him to the core.
 

Cosmix

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I was skeptical for a bit, can't help it when a high octane player comes in and doesn't quite perform as well as we all hoped, but he's picked it up huge. Now...it's hard to imagine not wanting to re-sign him and add him to the core.
I like Debrincat and hope the team signs him.

However, I have 2 concerns about Debrincat:
1. What salary it will take to sign him.
2. His mall size that makes him vulnerable to getting injured by hits from bigger players.
 
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SpezDispenser

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I like Debrincat and hope the team signs him.

However, I have 2 concerns about Debrincat:
1. What salary it will take to sign him.
2. His mall size that makes him vulnerable to getting injured by hits from bigger players.
Not often does he get hit though. He's shifty and he has a ridiculous core - which I've always maintained is key in this league. You could be right, but I don't think I'd really put much stock in that for DBC.

8.5 million X 8 is my guess. Or just under Brady's
 

UglyPuckling

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May 14, 2021
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Lol, you’re a funny guy.

I didn’t say Dorion had a ‘good plan’, nor was I saying that ‘everything will work out’, I said they would sign DBC if he wants to stay, and had that in mind when they traded for him (obviously a hot take lol). See how that’s not at all what you wrote? See how you changed that to try and be nasty? Yeah that’s you in a nutshell.

Why in the world would I need to show numbers when Puckling has already made a beautiful spreadsheet (which I have complimented a few times now), and capfriendly also has all the salary numbers anyone would need to add up a salary. Saying that I think they plan on signing DBC, and obviously considered the cap implications for such a possibility is hardly a take where I ‘need to back it up’, it’s common sense, I shouldn’t even need to say it.

We all know that the numbers are very close, but room could be made by removing any number of players, which is also all dependent on what we sign players for to begin with. These fancy spreadsheets and ‘backed up’ opinions are filled with made up numbers and suppositions, and thus are worth little beyond pointing out the cap crunch, and the enjoyment the poster had in making them along with the ensuing discussions.

It’s just talk, not facts, and guessing, with a bunch of salary numbers coupled with a bunch of made up salary numbers as guesstimates. That’s your ‘backing it up’ on this topic.

So again, my premise stands without me having to take the time to make up a bunch of salaries and then add them to existing salaries, then pretending to remove a salary from the team if my pretend numbers don’t fit under the cap. I’m cool with other people playing with that, but I don’t feel the need to because it isn’t anymore real than what I said.

You’ve provided nothing here besides once again piggybacking into a discussion in hopes of taking some passive aggressive jabs at me while puckling and I were being rather civil. It’s pathetic, but sadly, expected.

Now run along, I’ve spent all the time I’m going to spend on you.
Thanks for the compliment - I think? For a future year, CapFriendly only provides info about existing salaries.

I'm not sure why you think this is voodoo or pointless. It's actually pretty logical, rational and pretty straightforward. A GM or someone with the organization will be doing the same thing. Its standard business practice and all businesses do this including hockey teams.

Regarding the assumptions that you brought up, I am in fact careful to state them. But, you may have noticed, if the assumptions do not pan out, the total cap number will generally be going up versus down.

You said yourself that "the numbers are close" and that "room could be made by removing any number of players". That was a valid point and probably a good place to stop your post in my opinion.

The poster you are debating with did say something that does frame the challenge in a rather good way. If the Senators sign Debrincat to Stutzle's contract, there will be $12.6 m to sign 11 or 12 players. There is a cap constraint next year with a $83.5 m cap ceiling. Its not doom or gloom, but it's pretty obvious that not everything that we'd like to do will be able to occur. I don't see more value in having abstract discussion based on blind faith without taking into account the situation at hand and things that are more concrete.
 
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Ice-Tray

Registered User
Jan 31, 2006
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If you firmly believe that everything will work out and that Dorion had a good plan, you could show us your numbers and vision of how it would work out. It's not weird at all & it's actually simple. Maybe the last sentence of your post is the most revealing. By easy you mean being able to make statements/proclamations without backing anything up.
Lol, you’re a funny guy.

I didn’t say Dorion had a ‘good plan’, nor was I saying that ‘everything will work out’, I said they would sign DBC if he wants to stay, and had that in mind when they traded for him (obviously a hot take lol). See how that’s not at all what you wrote? See how you changed that to try and be nasty? Yeah that’s you in a nutshell.

Why in the world would I need to show numbers when Puckling has already made a beautiful spreadsheet (which I have complimented a few times now), and capfriendly also has all the salary numbers anyone would need to add up a salary. Saying that I think they plan on signing DBC, and obviously considered the cap implications for such a possibility is hardly a take where I ‘need to back it up’, it’s common sense, I shouldn’t even need to say it.

We all know that the numbers are very close, but room could be made by removing any number of players, which is also all dependent on what we sign players for to begin with. These fancy spreadsheets and ‘backed up’ opinions are filled with made up numbers and suppositions, and thus are worth next to nothing beyond the enjoyment the poster had in making them.

It’s just talk, and guessing, with a bunch of salary numbers coupled with a bunch of made up salary numbers as guesstimates. That’s your ‘backing it up’ on this topic.

So again, my premise stands without me having to take the time to make up a bunch of salaries and then add them to existing salaries, then pretending to remove a salary from the team if my pretend numbers don’t fit under the cap. I’m cool with other people playing with that, but I don’t feel the need to because it isn’t anymore real than what I said.

You’ve provided nothing here besides once again piggybacking into a discussion in hopes of taking some passive aggressive jabs at me while puckling and I were being rather civil. It’s pathetic, but sadly, expected.

Now run along, I’ve spent all the time I’m going to spend on you.
Thanks for the compliment - I think? For a future year, CapFriendly only provides info about existing salaries.

I'm not sure why you think this is voodoo or pointless. It's actually pretty logical, rational and pretty straightforward. A GM or someone with the organization will be doing the same thing. Its standard business practice and all businesses do this including hockey teams.

Regarding the assumptions that you brought up, I am in fact careful to state them. But, you may have noticed, if the assumptions do not pan out, the total cap number will generally be going up versus down.

You said yourself that "the numbers are close" and that "room could be made by removing players could be removed". That was probably a good place to stop your post in my opinion.

The poster you are debating with did say something that does frame the challenge in a rather good way. If the Senators sign Debrincat to Stutzle's contract, there will be $12.6 m to sign 11 or 12 players. There is a cap constraint next year with a $83.5 m cap ceiling. Its not doom or gloom, but it's pretty obvious that not everything that we'd like to do will be able to occur. I don't see more value in having abstract discussion based on blind faith without taking into account the situation at hand and things that are more concrete.
it was absolutely a compliment, and I don’t mean to diminish your work, more to explain that the position I have taken is pretty shallow, does not challenge your work, and I personally think is common sense.

I think your work illustrates that there is work to be done to sign DBC, and Zub, which is great to create setting.
 

UglyPuckling

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May 14, 2021
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it was absolutely a compliment, and I don’t mean to diminish your work, more to explain that the position I have taken is pretty shallow, does not challenge your work, and I personally think is common sense.

I think your work illustrates that there is work to be done to sign DBC, and Zub, which is great to create setting.
OK. I wasn't sure.

One thing that I do is that take peoples ideas and put them into a spreadsheet. It seems like a good idea to take the ideas and create a different iteration. There's lots of different ideas in here. We'd all love to add additional great players or keep all the good ones that we have. But, that doesn't always work out. I guess when you go through this exercise, it rubs against the more fantasy type approach which maybe some people like more. So, maybe that's a bit of a downer sometimes.
 

bicboi64

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Aug 13, 2020
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OK. I wasn't sure.

One thing that I do is that take peoples ideas and put them into a spreadsheet. It seems like a good idea to take the ideas and create a different iteration. There's lots of different ideas in here. We'd all love to add additional great players or keep all the good ones that we have. But, that doesn't always work out. I guess when you go through this exercise, it rubs against the more fantasy type approach which maybe some people like more. So, maybe that's a bit of a downer sometimes.
I spend wayyy too much time on capfriendly, its such a time sink lol! A lot of fun though
 

Silencio

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Lol, you’re a funny guy.
gfellasfunnyhow-main1.jpg
 

Cosmix

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Generally, your ideas and UP's are focused in the right direction. But, if Grieg, Pinto and Sanderson are in the lineup, what is the trade bait being used to acquire Chychrun? Looks like the poster that created the spreadsheet had visualized that issue. There's always a few assumptions that need to be made in an exercise like this. So, as you noted, if we go the Free Agency route, the RD's AAV would need to be $4.6 m or less.

Getting rid of Zaitsev is another consideration, and we'd have to hope that Sogaard is ready for NHL duty as well.
Formenton and Joseph are out and to them may be added a draft pick to get Chychrun.
 

Ice-Tray

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Jan 31, 2006
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OK. I wasn't sure.

One thing that I do is that take peoples ideas and put them into a spreadsheet. It seems like a good idea to take the ideas and create a different iteration. There's lots of different ideas in here. We'd all love to add additional great players or keep all the good ones that we have. But, that doesn't always work out. I guess when you go through this exercise, it rubs against the more fantasy type approach which maybe some people like more. So, maybe that's a bit of a downer sometimes.
Naw, I respect what you did/do for sure, and I think it adds to the discussion because it keeps it grounded. I agree that fantasy is fun when talking trades, but when we’re talking about re-signing DBC, Zub, etc, it pays to keep the real established numbers in mind. You help with that.

I think we’ll prioritize signing DBC if he wants to stay, and we’ll move out pieces to facilitate that if needs be. I think we traded for a 24 year old scoring star with the full intention to woo him with our locker room and young talent, and then sign him long term.

I think Zub’s camp has always wanted to hit UFA and will use that to set a price, and my gut tells me that he’d like to stay at whatever that market price is. Whether we want to pay is yet to be determined.

Having said that, we may not be able to keep everyone, and if demands are high we may have to balk and move on to other options. I think DBC will be a priority.
 

Samsquanch

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Nov 28, 2008
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We honestly just need one of JBD, Thompson, or Kleven to become a top 4 dman to make Debrincat work numbers wise imo.

Between all of the other young forwards coming up we can fill out the bottom of the roster over the next few years and still keep the top 6 together. We have get creative for 2 more years after this season, until the Giroux deal is done. That's manageable.

We would be stupid to let a player of his caliber go, just like Chicago was. He's a play driver and a 200ft player. And he's never in bad spots to get hit and he's much stronger than he looks. Not shy to battle around the boards. And he seems to fit in perfectly with team because he's a good dude.

The only way I would let him go is if he priced himself out of here. Anything north of 8.5m would start making me uncomfortable. But otherwise for me it's Batherson that gets traded if we need to open up dollars from the front end. Love him and his contract both, but DeBrincat is clearly the better player imo.
 
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UglyPuckling

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May 14, 2021
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Naw, I respect what you did/do for sure, and I think it adds to the discussion because it keeps it grounded. I agree that fantasy is fun when talking trades, but when we’re talking about re-signing DBC, Zub, etc, it pays to keep the real established numbers in mind. You help with that.

I think we’ll prioritize signing DBC if he wants to stay, and we’ll move out pieces to facilitate that if needs be. I think we traded for a 24 year old scoring star with the full intention to woo him with our locker room and young talent, and then sign him long term.

I think Zub’s camp has always wanted to hit UFA and will use that to set a price, and my gut tells me that he’d like to stay at whatever that market price is. Whether we want to pay is yet to be determined.

Having said that, we may not be able to keep everyone, and if demands are high we may have to balk and move on to other options. I think DBC will be a priority.

We honestly just need one of JBD, Thompson, or Kleven to become a top 4 dman to make Debrincat work numbers wise imo.

Between all of the other young forwards coming up we can fill out the bottom of the roster over the next few years and still keep the top 6 together. We have get creative for 2 more years after this season, until the Giroux deal is done. That's manageable.

We would be stupid to let a player of his caliber go, just like Chicago was. He's a play driver and a 200ft player. And he's never in bad spots to get hit and he's much stronger than he looks. Not shy to battle around the boards. And he seems to fit in perfectly with team because he's a good dude.

The only way I would let him go is if he priced himself out of here. Anything north of 8.5m would start making me uncomfortable. But otherwise for me it's Batherson that gets traded if we need to open up dollars from the front end. Love him and his contract both, but DeBrincat is clearly the better player imo.
I created an iteration that got the numbers to work. It's post #1095.

But, there were a number of things (assumptions) that need to happen to make that model (simulation) work. BTW, JBD (3rd pair) and Thomson (7D) were already included.

Some of them were:
  • Zaitsev is moved without cost
  • Pinto is signed to a bridge contract
  • Grieg, JBD & other ELCs have been inserted into the roster
  • Formenton and Joseph are removed
  • Performance bonuses are NOT included
  • Sogaard is the backup net minder
The roster even included Chychrun on the 2nd pair.

But, the assumptions are important. For example, would our GM be comfortable with Sogaard as our backup goalie?

If you understand the law of probability, the chance of all of those things happening is very low. All it takes is one or two of those assumptions to not become true for the model not to work.
 
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Big Muddy

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Dec 15, 2019
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Formenton and Joseph are out and to them may be added a draft pick to get Chychrun.
I think the Yotes GM based on all of the info available from the media was looking for combinations of 1st round draft picks and top notch ELCs. It was reported that it would take 3 or 4 of those pieces iirc. Based on some of the reports, the assets they were interested in from the Senators were Sanderson, Pinto, Grieg and our unprotected 1st.

If they would set aside Formenton's situation, that might be a substitute for one of the pieces, but even with our 1st, that seems light unless the GM lowers his demands. Don't think they'd view Joseph as one of the assets. They've had Chychrun on the market for about a year, so their GM seems to be very patient and willing to wait until his price is met.
 

Cosmix

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I think the Yotes GM based on all of the info available from the media was looking for combinations of 1st round draft picks and top notch ELCs. It was reported that it would take 3 or 4 of those pieces iirc. Based on some of the reports, the assets they were interested in from the Senators were Sanderson, Pinto, Grieg and our unprotected 1st.

If they would set aside Formenton's situation, that might be a substitute for one of the pieces, but even with our 1st, that seems light unless the GM lowers his demands. Don't think they'd view Joseph as one of the assets. They've had Chychrun on the market for about a year, so their GM seems to be very patient and willing to wait until his price is met.
3 or 4 1st round picks or top notch ELCs? I doubt that Chychrun will fetch that. A mid 1st round pick, 3rd liner and decent prospect or 2nd round pick should be enough.
 

Big Muddy

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Dec 15, 2019
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3 or 4 1st round picks or top notch ELCs? I doubt that Chychrun will fetch that. A mid 1st round pick, 3rd liner and decent prospect or 2nd round pick should be enough.
He might not. But GM Bill Armstrong could decide to hang on to Chychrun if that were the case.

As I mentioned, Chychrun has been on the market for about a year and Armstrong hasn't moved him. So, that doesn't seem like a GM who is desperate to get the player moved at all costs.
 
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Ice-Tray

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I created an iteration that got the numbers to work. It's post #1095.

But, there were a number of things (assumptions) that need to happen to make that model (simulation) work. BTW, JBD (3rd pair) and Thomson (7D) were already included.

Some of them were:
  • Zaitsev is moved without cost
  • Pinto is signed to a bridge contract
  • Grieg, JBD & other ELCs have been inserted into the roster
  • Formenton and Joseph are removed
  • Performance bonuses are NOT included
  • Sogaard is the backup net minder
The roster even included Chychrun on the 2nd pair.

But, the assumptions are important. For example, would our GM be comfortable with Sogaard as our backup goalie?

If you understand the law of probability, the chance of all of those things happening is very low. All it takes is one or two of those assumptions to not become true for the model not to work.
I agree, but if we remove the unlikely signing of Chychrun we have breathing space in that scenario. We’d also have to give up some of those young players to get him, and we’ve looking at big salary bumps for both him and Sanderson soon. He also hasn’t been great in the right side.

I maintain that we don’t need that type of player, at that price, to with Sandy on the second pairing.

I’m not sure Soogard will be ready either so Talbot might be needed still.

Nice list to look at, thanks. It would be nice if it could float from page to page so that we didn’t have search for it.
 
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HSF

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Sep 3, 2008
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said before that he will lead our team offensively

he should be signed asap
 

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