Player Discussion Alex DeBrincat

[Big Muddy]

Given that many of the roster spots are taken by players under contract, many/most AAVs are already known. That leaves only a few assumptions to make. So, I wouldn't characterize it as a "pretend" roster or exercise.

* Note - I have created many spreadsheets in the past and posted them before. Some of the spreadsheets show a roster that meets the cap, and some don't. If you've been in here and are paying attention, you would have noticed that already I'm sure.

So, I've already done this, and will of course, continue to do this.

In many cases, I take the ideas generated by other posters, and then plug them into the spreadsheet. I take different hypotheses that people make in here, and then run the numbers to reveal whatever they show. Whatever the numbers are, they are the numbers. You could say just let the numbers speak for themselves.

Running the numbers is informative and it is a different approach that sets aside emotions and preconceived ideas that some people are more prone to.

In general, when more expensive players are added to the known salaries (good players already under contract), the more likely it is that the total will exceed the cap when the cap is tight. And, next year, given that that the cap will likely be $83.5 m, it will definitely be tight.

I think you would find the exercise quite useful. It could be much better than making blanket statements (opinions).

You make good points. Some folks are going to be less specific and run with their narratives versus showing their work. Its not only easier, but there's less risk of being exposed.

 

[Mark Stones Spleen]

Ok l

 

[JackieDaytona]

Despite being snake bitten wrt shooting percentage, Cat has shown great offensive spark, has shown he can carry a line and the team at times.

He’s playing great on both sides of the puck(unexpected for me, I thought he was more one dimensional than he is, a nice surprise), and as mentioned earlier in the thread he’s really good transitioning the puck.

I hope there’s a way to keep him and pay a decent dman (Zub or otherwise).

 

[Hale The Villain]

I hope there’s a way to keep him and pay a decent dman (Zub or otherwise).

It's possible if we go with JBD or Thomson as a top 4 D next year and give Forsberg full starting goalie duties with a cheap backup behind him, but those aren't exactly smart decisions.

 

[Xspyrit]

Alex is playing much better recently, maybe he's finally getting comfortable

And not just offensively, he's playing more adequately in all zones. The whole team as a whole is doing that. Why does it always take so long to figure out how to play DJ hockey? I mean, each season, returning player or not.

At the same time, due to his contract, Batherson might be the best asset we have to get that top 4 RD who's signed for several years.

For example, if the Islanders come to you and offer Pulock for Batherson. Do you do it? I probably would.

Well, that is the hardest question I have been asked in a while. Batherson is very valuable to many teams who need a 1st line RW since the vast majority are in cap crunch

Pulock is a pretty good player too and on a good contract as long as he doesn't decline. Very hard decision.

As a fan I wouldn't do it since Drake is one of my favorites, as a GM I probably would since our team could take a step forward. It would be easier to find a good RW to replace Bath (even if not as good)

 

[Big Muddy]

It's possible if we go with JBD or Thomson as a top 4 D next year and give Forsberg full starting goalie duties with a cheap backup behind him, but those aren't exactly smart decisions.

Yep. Although I mentioned this in another thread, it seems worth mentioning that if the Senators sign Debrincat to Stutzle's contract, they will have about $12.6 m to sign 12 players (23 player roster) or 11 players (22 player roster).

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

It's possible if we go with JBD or Thomson as a top 4 D next year and give Forsberg full starting goalie duties with a cheap backup behind him, but those aren't exactly smart decisions.

Hopefully teams sold by then and we can spend to the cap

 

[Hale The Villain]

Hopefully teams sold by then and we can spend to the cap

That's actually assuming we spend to the 83.5M cap, which isn't a guarantee.

Big Muddy did a nice analysis of the cap situation for next season in the trade rumour/proposal thread.

 

[SensontheRush]

How is DbC our most effective player along the boards? Champion-tier grinder.

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

That's actually assuming we spend to the 83.5M cap, which isn't a guarantee.

Big Muddy did a nice analysis of the cap situation for next season in the trade rumour/proposal thread.

Ya i saw that. We're closer to the cap once Stutzle's contract kicks in then i realized.

 

[NB613]

How is DbC our most effective player along the boards? Champion-tier grinder.

Him, Giroux, and Tkachuk are awesome at that. Batherson too last year. Alfie was amazing there too.

 

[Ice-Tray]

You make good points. Some folks are going to be less specific and run with their narratives versus showing their work. Its not only easier, but there's less risk of being exposed.

Weird take in my opinion.

What work is there to show here? Spreadsheets don’t tell us anything capfriendly hasn’t already told each and every one of us: there is a cap crunch coming next season. We literally all know this.

I don’t have to show my work because the proof is in the pudding. Either I’m right and they sign him long term, or I’m wrong if they choose not to. It’s a simple as that.

I love how ‘some people’ treat this place like it’s courthouse instead of a chat forum… show your work…. Not only easier…. In my opinion talking hockey online should be easy.

 

[OttawaSenators11]

They'll have to do a ton of juggling to make Cat fit while also making sure we can surround him with the pieces necessary to try and win the cup - I'm not sure it's possible without drastic reconfiguration with regards to our big money core.

 

[Boud]

They'll have to do a ton of juggling to make Cat fit while also making sure we can surround him with the pieces necessary to try and win the cup - I'm not sure it's possible without drastic reconfiguration with regards to our big money core.

They need to do some shuffling but not sure if it's that complicated to do. Talbot likely gone next year and replaced by Soogard. Money coming off the books for the buyouts and then trade Zaitsev.

Formenton is a goner, replace him with Greig. Fill in spots with Jarventie, Boucher, Ostapchuk, Reinhardt and other guys incoming.

On defense likely that JBD grabs a spot. Hopefully you re-sign Zub.

 

[JD1]

Can DeBrincat not sign a long term deal as of July 1?

Is there anything that prevents him from signing a one year deal AND a 7 year deal? Isn't he eligible to sign long term as of July 1 2023 for the 24-25 season if he's on an expiring deal in June 2024.
Seems the entire hockey universe knows the cap is going to go up significantly and DeBrincat is caught in an odd situation. If both sides want a deal, they may need to get creative

1 year 5 M deal
7 year 9 M deal

 

[xVolchenkov]

If we need space, trade Joseph not DeBrincat.

Zaitsev, Joseph, Thompson, Greig and a 2023 1st Round Pick for Chychrun.

 

[Big Muddy]

Weird take in my opinion.

What work is there to show here? Spreadsheets don’t tell us anything capfriendly hasn’t already told each and every one of us: there is a cap crunch coming next season. We literally all know this.

I don’t have to show my work because the proof is in the pudding. Either I’m right and they sign him long term, or I’m wrong if they choose not to. It’s a simple as that.

I love how ‘some people’ treat this place like it’s courthouse instead of a chat forum… show your work…. Not only easier…. In my opinion talking hockey online should be easy.

If you firmly believe that everything will work out and that Dorion had a good plan, you could show us your numbers and vision of how it would work out. It's not weird at all & it's actually simple. Maybe the last sentence of your post is the most revealing. By easy you mean being able to make statements/proclamations without backing anything up.

 

[Micklebot]

Can DeBrincat not sign a long term deal as of July 1?

Is there anything that prevents him from signing a one year deal AND a 7 year deal? Isn't he eligible to sign long term as of July 1 2023 for the 24-25 season if he's on an expiring deal in June 2024.
Seems the entire hockey universe knows the cap is going to go up significantly and DeBrincat is caught in an odd situation. If both sides want a deal, they may need to get creative

1 year 5 M deal
7 year 9 M deal

I thought there was a period you couldn't extend a player for after signing a 1 year deal, we went through it with Stone where we couldn't extend him till after Xmas, then had from Jan to march to get something done before finally trading him.

Asking DeBrincat to sign a 1 year deal at a discount then play half of it before getting the extension might be a tall ask for a guy that just got here.

I do hope the can work something out though, I don't expect anything till we get the official word on the cap for next year,

 

[Micklebot]

If we need space, trade Joseph not DeBrincat.

Zaitsev, Joseph, Thompson, Greig and a 2023 1st Round Pick for Chychrun.

We can make space by moving Zaitsev and Joseph, but it might cost us some assets to be sure...

 

[UglyPuckling]

They need to do some shuffling but not sure if it's that complicated to do. Talbot likely gone next year and replaced by Soogard. Money coming off the books for the buyouts and then trade Zaitsev.

Formenton is a goner, replace him with Greig. Fill in spots with Jarventie, Boucher, Ostapchuk, Reinhardt and other guys incoming.

On defense likely that JBD grabs a spot. Hopefully you re-sign Zub.

If we need space, trade Joseph not DeBrincat.

Zaitsev, Joseph, Thompson, Greig and a 2023 1st Round Pick for Chychrun.

So, based on the feedback from the above posts, I have generated another 22-player roster for the 2023-24 season.

Here are some of the highlights and assumptions (important):

• Chychrun has been added to the roster (per above)
• Debrincat is resigned to a long term contract
• Zaitsev has been subtracted. If there's a cost to do so (salary coming back from a cap dump, buyout) it's NOT included
• Zub has been resigned to a $5m contact
• Pinto is signed to a bridge contract
• Grieg, JBD & other ELCs have been inserted into the roster
• Formenton and Joseph are removed
• Performance bonuses are NOT included
• Sogaard is the backup net minder

*** One thing I'd be curious about is if we have Grieg, Pinto and Sanderson in the lineup, what are we using as trade bait to land Chychrun? Presumably it could cost some assets to dump Zaitsev as well. I'll leave it to others and their imaginations to deal with that.

 

[Micklebot]

Sokolov as the backup net minder

I'm not convinced that's a fair assumption, but I'd love to see it for maybe a practice or two...

 

[UglyPuckling]

I'm not convinced that's a fair assumption, but I'd love to see it for maybe a practice or two...

LOL. I noticed that error and changed it to Sogaard.

 

[Samboni]

I hope that Alex is enjoying playing here and likes the city. Personally speaking, I hope that re-signs… his game is getting better with each outing.

 

[SpezDispenser]

I hope that Alex is enjoying playing here and likes the city. Personally speaking, I hope that re-signs… his game is getting better with each outing.

Same.

 

[Wondercarrot]

So, based on the feedback from the above posts, I have generated another 22-player roster for the 2023-24 season.

Here are some of the highlights and assumptions (important):

• Chychrun has been added to the roster (per above)
• Debrincat is resigned to a long term contract
• Zaitsev has been subtracted. If there's a cost to do so (salary coming back from a cap dump, buyout) it's NOT included
• Zub has been resigned to a $5m contact
• Pinto is signed to a bridge contract
• Grieg, JBD & other ELCs have been inserted into the roster
• Formenton and Joseph are removed
• Performance bonuses are NOT included
• Sogaard is the backup net minder

*** One thing I'd be curious about is if we have Grieg, Pinto and Sanderson in the lineup, what are we using as trade bait to land Chychrun? Presumably it could cost some assets to dump Zaitsev as well. I'll leave it to others and their imaginations to deal with that.

View attachment 622388

This is the version I come up with whenever I do this as well. The bottom 6 outside of Pinto need to be stripped down to ELCs.
There is no other way to keep DeBrincat, Zub, and a new solid D (preferably UFA so we can keep pipeline full for ELCs)

There is more than enough talent in that top 7 IMO to supplement with Kastelic, Grieg, Crookshank, Ostpachuk, and a cheap vet here and there in some combination over the next 3 years of their ELCs

Joseph and Zaitsev moved out with asset where needed.
All future foreseeable cap increases go towards Pinto and Sanderson contracts.

I would go ahead with this model, no half measures here. You are either building to win or you aren’t.