Player Discussion Alex DeBrincat

[playasRus]

tLol not tryna trash Debrincat at all . Saying a player is capable for 35 goals and deserves 8m on long term aint trashing .

My point is his price tag isn’t worth it to me I would be cool with an overpay at 9m if our long term cap didn’t look tight but it does and I rather use that money for depth throughout the forward lines or on D.

I'm in the opinion that your views are skewed by all the 8M 25-35 goal scorers we have on the team.

All those guys have either A) only broken 30 goals once (if at all), and B) were signed mostly for RFA years on their extension.

We'd be buying UFA years from DeBrincat, so expecting dollar for dollar on production compared to the young core isn't acceptable, logical, or realistic.

To boot, he's broken 40 goals twice (would have been 3 if he wasn't limited to 52 games and had another 30 games for the last 8 goals). He's in the top 10 of pure goal production as well as goal/game production in the last 5 years behind Matthews (11.5M), Draisatl (8.5M from ELC 5 years ago), Ovechkin (9.5M), McDavid (12.5M), Psatrnak (6.6M from ELC 5 years ago), Connor (7.1M from ELC 3 years ago), and Stamkos (8.5M signed 6 years ago).

Are all those guys also only worth sub-9M? I wouldn't call many of them overpaid, even Matthews (I'd say they got owned by not signing him to 8 years instead of 5 years lol). All the ELC extensions were signed ages ago and if signed today in UFA, would all get 10M and up, except maybe Connor. Stamkos being the appropriately paid because of being on the downswing of his career/injuries.

 

[Ice-Tray]

He's been mostly fine, he hasn't been a liability or anything and wasn't implying it, but if we're ranking the top 6 offensively, I have him and Cat ranking below the other 4 so far. Josh and Cat scored a combined 76 goals last year and haven't found the back of the net yet, so I'm sure they're hoping that changes soon and I'm sure it will.

I definitely agree with you, I guess in terms of Norris’ game he’s maybe less a scoring threat right now due to rounding out his game.

He’s been underwhelming on the scoreboard, agreed, but I do love that he’s developing into a two way player instead of being stuck as a trigger man. I find that he’s a much more effective player when he’s engaged physically and battling for pucks to make plays. He’s a hell of an athlete and he’s starting to use that to his advantage beyond cranking pucks.

Once Cat starts potting his goals, and he will for sure as he’s also so much more than just a trigger man, the points will pile up for these guys. Chemistry is huge here, as most have mentioned. 4 games together so far, and they are looking more dangerous each game.

 

[aragorn]

Norris? I think he’s played great in his new role. He’s had to adapt his game away from being the trigger man to being the guy who has to go and get the puck in the corner and make plays.

This change has had also affected the way he physically engages in the game. He’s more physical now, and has been getting into shoves and heated moments more so far. He’s essentially kind of doing Brady’s role on the second line while Cat looks for the soft spots to score, like he did a lot on the top line.

I think Norris has been great so far in his new role, and is now PKing as well. Of course he was a post away from his signature PP goal the other game as well so that’s still there.

Anyways, it looks like he’s transitioning to being more of a two way force, than a sniper, which is great for a young centre man.

I agree he has been great so far this season adapting to his new role & more importantly he has been very good defensively taking the tougher assignments. He is going to learn a lot playing with Giroux & he's already pretty good at faceoffs & carrying the puck, fighting for possession, good goal scorer & really needs to learn to be a better playmaker to become a complete player IMO. He's improved the centre position in Ottawa 100% & is proving he can adapt to play with different kinds of players too. He's been great!

 

[Ice-Tray]

I'm in the opinion that your views are skewed by all the 8M 25-35 goal scorers we have on the team.

All those guys have either A) only broken 30 goals once (if at all), and B) were signed mostly for RFA years on their extension.

We'd be buying UFA years from DeBrincat, so expecting dollar for dollar on production compared to the young core isn't acceptable, logical, or realistic.

To boot, he's broken 40 goals twice (would have been 3 if he wasn't limited to 52 games and had another 30 games for the last 8 goals). He's in the top 10 of pure goal production as well as goal/game production in the last 5 years behind Matthews (11.5M), Draisatl (8.5M from ELC 5 years ago), Ovechkin (9.5M), McDavid (12.5M), Psatrnak (6.6M from ELC 5 years ago), Connor (7.1M from ELC 3 years ago), and Stamkos (8.5M signed 6 years ago).

Are all those guys also only worth sub-9M? I wouldn't call many of them overpaid, even Matthews (I'd say they got owned by not signing him to 8 years instead of 5 years lol). All the ELC extensions were signed ages ago and if signed today in UFA, would all get 10M and up, except maybe Connor. Stamkos being the appropriately paid because of being on the downswing of his career/injuries.

It may come down to guys having to fit into a pay structure that allows us to ice the very best team top to bottom though.

Sometimes you have to let guys go if they want to take more of the pie than you want to spend there, even if they deserve it and you agree with the sentiment.

The ultimate goal is to win cups, and that team formula can’t be too heavy in any one area or you’re doomed to fail in the playoffs. One player can be shut down no matter how good he is, the cap has to be managed smartly, and talented depth is key.

I want Cat signed, no question, but I also don’t think this is a blank cheque situation, nor do I think that he’ll get as much here as we would if he wanted to go to a bottom feeder that needed cap dollars and a star to market.

We need to make sure we can fit everyone under the cap so we can have a nice long window of contention. That has to be the goal of management and players.

 

[bert]

I like DeBrincat & think he is playing well & the scoring will eventually come as that line begins to gel together. Having said that though, we shouldn't be given him $9 mil, in fact, he shouldn't be paid more than Brady, Timmy or Norris. While he certainly helps with the scoring & will eventually start scoring he just isn't as dynamic & doesn't do as much as some of our younger guys are already doing & they will only get better too.

And let's not forget that the Sens still have some young guys coming that are also going to help this team score goals & the leadership of this team is still quite young. Crookshank could turn into a player & goal scorer, he seems to have that "it" potential, we think Greig has IT as well. Formenton, Ostapchuk & Boucher will bring the grit needed for playoff hockey & could add some scoring & even Jarventie & Sokolov have offensive potential, if needed. They will have plenty of scoring they could use some money on upgrading their goaltending in future as well as their RD options.

I think you should give him some more time before you decide on how dynamic he is. None of the players you have mentioned in the 2nd paragraph can hold his jock. He is going to get going and this post is gonna look a little silly.

 

[aragorn]

I think you should give him some more time before you decide on how dynamic he is.

I'm fine with him, I just don't want to give him $9 mil as some have suggested, I don't want to put all of our money into the forward group as Toronto has done, I want them to upgrade goaltending at some point to SC goaltending & upgrade the defence. I think people put too much stock on offence & not enough on preventing goals.

 

[playasRus]

It may come down to guys having to fit into a pay structure that allows us to ice the very best team top to bottom though.

Sometimes you have to let guys go if they want to take more of the pie than you want to spend there, even if they deserve it and you agree with the sentiment.

The ultimate goal is to win cups, and that team formula can’t be too heavy in any one area or you’re doomed to fail in the playoffs. One player can be shut down no matter how good he is, the cap has to be managed smartly, and talented depth is key.

I want Cat signed, no question, but I also don’t think this is a blank cheque situation, nor do I think that he’ll get as much here as we would if he wanted to go to a bottom feeder that needed cap dollars and a star to market.

We need to make sure we can fit everyone under the cap so we can have a nice long window of contention. That has to be the goal of management and players.

Whole heartedly agree. My gripe was with saying he had no argument for asking for 9+M because he "may only be a 35 goal scorer"

If DeBrincat tables 9M x 8 years, you take it and run because you're never going to find that much contribution in FA for that price with a 25 yo. Caps going up to 86.5M likely so within 2-3 years 9M is going to be 10% of the cap.

If he demands 9.5M x 8, I'd evaluate the situation with other guys like Zub/Pinto and see if you can fit that.

Anything over 9.5M and you try and recoup assets by trading him earlier than later.

 

[SensontheRush]

He's a puck thief.

As much as he might've caused BOS's 5th goal, he also saved one on a good defensive play in the 3rd.

 

[bert]

I'm fine with him, I just don't want to give him $9 mil as some have suggested, I don't want to put all of our money into the forward group as Toronto has done, I want them to upgrade goaltending at some point to SC goaltending & upgrade the defence.

That fair but you are saying that Tkachuk, Norris and Stutzle are all more dynamic players than him and that's really not an accurate assessment thus far into their careers. Seems to me its based on a 3 game sample size. The teams salary structure is up for great debate for sure, I just think you need more time before you decide on who should be expendable and before we can see what he is willing to sign for. The caps very likely going up and there is a lot of money coming off the books in buy outs, and dead money contracts. If he goes on a heater and scores 40 + this year at a PPG you probably want to keep him.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I definitely agree with you, I guess in terms of Norris’ game he’s maybe less a scoring threat right now due to rounding out his game.

He’s been underwhelming on the scoreboard, agreed, but I do love that he’s developing into a two way player instead of being stuck as a trigger man. I find that he’s a much more effective player when he’s engaged physically and battling for pucks to make plays. He’s a hell of an athlete and he’s starting to use that to his advantage beyond cranking pucks.

Once Cat starts potting his goals, and he will for sure as he’s also so much more than just a trigger man, the points will pile up for these guys. Chemistry is huge here, as most have mentioned. 4 games together so far, and they are looking more dangerous each game.

Ya that's fair, his role will need to change and a lot is going to be expected of him at both ends of the ice. Maybe I should have been more specific that I was referring to offensive output for him and Cat. Alex in particular has looked uncomfortable and lacking chemistry to me so far, but I'm sure it'll come.

 

[Hale The Villain]

I'm fine with re-signing DeBrincat, as long as it doesn't prevent us from having enough cap space to re-sign Zub and add another top 4 D.

I'm usually against re-signing soon-to-be UFAs to big money contracts, but I think he's young enough to ensure the second half of the contract won't blow up in our faces.

I imagine that would involve trading Joseph and Formenton within the next year or two and replacing them internally, but we should have enough young depth to fill out the bottom 6.

 

[dumbdick]

Poor post, lol. Easily has been one of our most consistent forwards.

I disagree, but also respect your right to your maligned opinion.

He's an expensive player and I've set my expectations accordingly. He cant be playing like our 6th or 7th best forward.

 

[Masked]

I'm fine with him, I just don't want to give him $9 mil as some have suggested, I don't want to put all of our money into the forward group as Toronto has done, I want them to upgrade goaltending at some point to SC goaltending & upgrade the defence. I think people put too much stock on offence & not enough on preventing goals.

If you have a chance to have elite players in their prime, you go for it. They're not going to be top heavy like the Leafs because if he signs for $9M the Sens best 5 forwards will be signed for less than the Leafs top 4 forwards. And that's with a salary cap that's going to go up significantly.

How are you going to get an elite goalie or an elite defenceman? Those guys are rare, especially the goalies.

Assen na yo!

 

[majormajor]

If he demands 9.5M x 8, I'd evaluate the situation with other guys like Zub/Pinto and see if you can fit that.

Anything over 9.5M and you try and recoup assets by trading him earlier than later.

They have some flexibility on when they start paying Pinto the big bucks but it looks to me like Zub could walk and get $7m+. And the Sens would be devastated without him. He's arguably more important than Debrincat because there's no way to replace Zub. The RD options in trade or UFA are bleak.

 

[playasRus]

They have some flexibility on when they start paying Pinto the big bucks but it looks to me like Zub could walk and get $7m+. And the Sens would be devastated without him. He's arguably more important than Debrincat because there's no way to replace Zub. The RD options in trade or UFA are bleak.

I love Zub but I'm not sure I'd sign that contract of 7M x 6-7 years.

Does Zub really fall in the class of guys like Morgan Reilly and Quinn Hughes? Is he that much better than Torey Krug, Hampus Lindholm, Colton Parayko, or Ryan Pulock?

I'd be offering 5.5M x 8 years and negotiating towards 6M, with a cap of 6.5M if I get desperate.

 

[majormajor]

I love Zub but I'm not sure I'd sign that contract of 7M x 6-7 years.

Does Zub really fall in the class of guys like Morgan Reilly and Quinn Hughes? Is he that much better than Torey Krug, Hampus Lindholm, Colton Parayko, or Ryan Pulock?

I'd be offering 5.5M x 8 years and negotiating towards 6M, with a cap of 6.5M if I get desperate.

Let's say he walks. What do you do?

 

[DaveMatthew]

Let's say he walks. What do you do?

You acquire someone else.

Regardless, there is a 0% chance that Zub gets a contract close to $7M.

He'll be between $4.5-5M, so hopefully we can get it done. A Ben Chiarot type deal.

 

[bicboi64]

Interesting discussion on DeBrincat's contract. Its all premature, but if I have to pay him more than $8.5 million (he'd be the highest paid player on the team), I think I'd personally spend that money on keeping Zub, Pinto, etc... + having a bit of flexibility. We've already committed quite a bit to our forward core and I don't know if we can afford to not lock up a guy like Zub (who I don't think should get a penny over $5 million, offer him a 8 year deal with $5 million aav.). I'd be open to trading him before his next deal, but it has to be a surefire win that addresses our needs or we're better off "overpaying" for him.

I love that this is the type of problem we'll be having though lol, been a while since we've had too much talent

 

[Big Muddy]

You acquire someone else.

Regardless, there is a 0% chance that Zub gets a contract close to $7M.

He'll be between $4.5-5M, so hopefully we can get it done. A Ben Chiarot type deal.

IIRC, Toronto was trying to land a decent top 4 RD for years before they finally landed one. Good RDs are like unicorns it seems. I don't want to pay $7 m either btw, but its easy to say we'll find another capable RD, but much harder in practice to accomplish.

 

[SpezDispenser]

Wait until he starts scoring lol. He'll just fill the net like crazy, it'll be insane.

 

[BondraTime]

Needs to be put on PP1, Norris should be moved to the 2nd unit.

Can't keep your best shooter and goalscorer off your 1st unit because others were there last year, that's idiotic

 

[Sun God Nika]

It is when you're asking him to take an offer below his qualifying that has him looking for a new contract when he's 32.

If you don't think he's worth what NHL comparables are, or dont want to pay it, then yes you trade him ala huberdeau.

Just no point in saying I don't think he's as good as he has been performing so I'll ask him to take less, for less, than what his peers are getting.

That's just not reasonable.

His qualifying offer is 9M. The contract i whipped up has that built in that he would be paid 9M next year.

You can also argue that it is easier to get that next contract at 32 then it would be at 34.

 

[playasRus]

Let's say he walks. What do you do?

IIRC, Toronto was trying to land a decent top 4 RD for years before they finally landed one. Good RDs are like unicorns it seems. I don't want to pay $7 m either btw, but its easy to say we'll find another capable RD, but much harder in practice to accomplish.

You acquire someone else.

Regardless, there is a 0% chance that Zub gets a contract close to $7M.

He'll be between $4.5-5M, so hopefully we can get it done. A Ben Chiarot type deal.

I guess the question is, if we're thinking tying up 9.5M on our 1B LW (thereby overpaying by 1M above optimal replacement) is going to jeopardize our ability to add depth on D, in nets, and in our bottom 6, then will tying up 7M on our #2-3 defensive D (thereby overpaying by about 1-1.5M above optimal replacement) will also jeopardize out ability to acquire the depth that we were prioritizing by not resigning DeBrincat?

In other words, is a Connor Brown instead (4-5M middle 6 wing guy in FA) + Zub worst than DeBrincat + Hamonic (4-5M RHD middle pair guy in FA). I guess you can argue that if it somehow comes down to it, the 2M difference between DeBrincat and Zub alone is worth a goalie upgrade.

When I say "1M optimal replacement" it's just jargon for "if we had drafted this talented player and then got them on a sweetheart 8x8 deal, not talking about UFA replacement since, let's be real, a 35+G scorer/top pairing D will always cost north of 8.5M/6.5M on FA.

 

[Sun God Nika]

I'm in the opinion that your views are skewed by all the 8M 25-35 goal scorers we have on the team.

All those guys have either A) only broken 30 goals once (if at all), and B) were signed mostly for RFA years on their extension.

We'd be buying UFA years from DeBrincat, so expecting dollar for dollar on production compared to the young core isn't acceptable, logical, or realistic.

To boot, he's broken 40 goals twice (would have been 3 if he wasn't limited to 52 games and had another 30 games for the last 8 goals). He's in the top 10 of pure goal production as well as goal/game production in the last 5 years behind Matthews (11.5M), Draisatl (8.5M from ELC 5 years ago), Ovechkin (9.5M), McDavid (12.5M), Psatrnak (6.6M from ELC 5 years ago), Connor (7.1M from ELC 3 years ago), and Stamkos (8.5M signed 6 years ago).

Are all those guys also only worth sub-9M? I wouldn't call many of them overpaid, even Matthews (I'd say they got owned by not signing him to 8 years instead of 5 years lol). All the ELC extensions were signed ages ago and if signed today in UFA, would all get 10M and up, except maybe Connor. Stamkos being the appropriately paid because of being on the downswing of his career/injuries.

I know his next contract is going to be 9+ rather than saying he doesn't deserve it I should say I wouldn't be comfortable if the Sens bought him at market value. I rather keep Zub + 3-4M in cap space change.

Those bolded players don't have the same question mark Debrincat has... "Can this player continue doing what they did without player X?"

Maybe Debrincat can, the sentiment from this fanbase is optimistic he can and theres nothing wrong with that. I believe in some stuff other people here don't. I just don't think the Sens should take that risk at 9M.

 

[majormajor]

You acquire someone else.

Regardless, there is a 0% chance that Zub gets a contract close to $7M.

He'll be between $4.5-5M, so hopefully we can get it done. A Ben Chiarot type deal.

If you insist on getting Zub on a Chiarot type deal, you won't have Zub and you'll settle in UFA for the next Chiarot. That's a huge downgrade. The Sens are dramatically better when Zub is on the ice.

I guess the question is, if we're thinking tying up 9.5M on our 1B LW (thereby overpaying by 1M above optimal replacement) is going to jeopardize our ability to add depth on D, in nets, and in our bottom 6, then will tying up 7M on our #2-3 defensive D (thereby overpaying by about 1-1.5M above optimal replacement) will also jeopardize out ability to acquire the depth that we were prioritizing by not resigning DeBrincat?

In other words, is a Connor Brown instead (4-5M middle 6 wing guy in FA) + Zub worst than DeBrincat + Hamonic (4-5M RHD middle pair guy in FA). I guess you can argue that if it somehow comes down to it, the 2M difference between DeBrincat and Zub alone is worth a goalie upgrade.

When I say "1M optimal replacement" it's just jargon for "if we had drafted this talented player and then got them on a sweetheart 8x8 deal, not talking about UFA replacement since, let's be real, a 35+G scorer/top pairing D will always cost north of 8.5M/6.5M on FA.

I think that is overly abstracted from reality. We have to compare Debrincat and Zub to their potential replacements and for Zub that is the UFA market and that is where things get really ugly.