Player Discussion Alex DeBrincat

[Micklebot]

Move Brannstrom or maybe even Zub. They will have several options before the start of season, but trading him for a cheaper option is likely their first choice.

Zub really doesn't seem like an option, we don't have any other RHD that are at all established.

Brannstrom could be moved, he'd free up about 1.2 max once you replace him with a warm body, you certainly won't find a lot of cheaper options that can play up the lineup the way we have with him. I suspect anyone we'd be comfortable playing in his role will be 1.5 or more.

 

[coladin]

Bertuzzi is a crazy anti vax loon.

He isn't signing with a Canadian team.

Does it still matter?

Who's to say if he's "healthy"? 2 blown out knees to end the season. He still might be experiencing too much "pain" to play.

Maybe I’m missing something, but we’re they not bad sprains?

 

[Micklebot]

Maybe I’m missing something, but we’re they not bad sprains?

I think he's suggesting some shenanigans based on the quotations around pain...

 

[Johnny Hanson]

Bertuzzi is a crazy anti vax loon.

He isn't signing with a Canadian team.

COVID isn’t a thing anymore

 

[2CHAINZ]

Bertuzzi is a crazy anti vax loon.

He isn't signing with a Canadian team.

Why is not wanting the covid vax grounds for being a loon?

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

We're going to have to shed some salary now, I think. Not sure how we'd keep Cat.

And risk zero if he misses a couple games with a head ache at the tdl

 

[Senator Stanley]

I don’t know what we’d be interested in from Anaheim.
Best I could come up with of guys that might be available would be,

1st, Henrique, colangelo

Not getting a 1st from Anaheim.

Henrique, Gaucher/Pastujov (pick one), and a 3rd.

I think Anaheim is a much better fit as a trade partner for the Sens than NYI. A trade with Anaheim could break down like this:

Piece #1 - Veteran Money
We could take either Henrique (more value) or Silfverberg (less value/negative value). Both are one year from UFA, both make roughly the same amount, and both have M-NTCs. Arguably Henrique could plug the 2nd line LW hole. Silfverberg doesn't fit as well, but he can play bottom six and I'd take him depending on the value from 2 and 3 below. Of course, the best option would be no money coming back, if you could use that $$ for a better UFA.

Piece #2 - Prospect
Anaheim has had a lot of high picks recently, unlike NYI. Pustujov doesn't fit our profile at all and Colangelo hasn't developed, but Gaucher looks like a Trent Mann player, so he's an obvious option. But they're very heavy on defence prospects and that's probably where you get the best value (even if it's not our organizational need). They can't graduate all of Drysdale (untouchable), Mintyukov, Zellweger, Lacombe, Helleson (unlikely for us based on his status coming out of college), plus lesser names like Warren, Luneau and Hinds. Could we pry away Mintyukov by taking Silfverberg and low/no draft picks? That's probably too optimistic, but doesn't hurt to start there. Alternatively you could build a package around Henrique, Zellweger/Lacombe/Luneau and a pick.

Piece #3 - Pick
Scale up or down based on what's received from 1 and 2. If they include their 2024 1st, it will be protected and there's a good chance it doesn't convey right away.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Boom

 

[Oscar The Grouch]

How's that a huge miss. Maybe those teams would rather just try to sign him next summer when the cap is up and they don't need to trade assets for him.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Boom

So the Sens are the only team of the 6 willing to give him 8 years?

 

[Big Muddy]

It's really hard to see how it can work with DeBrincat back, even at the lowest possible arbitrated number of 7.65M. Roster would look like...

Tkachuk [8.205714] - Stutzle [8.35] - Giroux [6.5]
DeBrincat [7.65] - Norris [7.95] - Batherson [4.975]
Greig [.863333] - Pinto [1.75] - Joseph [2.95]
Kelly [.7625] - Kastelic [.835] - Sokolov [.805]

Chabot [8] - Chychrun [4.6]
Sanderson [.925] - Zub [4.6]
Brannstrom [2] - JBD [.805]

Korpisalo [4]
Forsberg [2.75]


Murray [1.5625]
Ryan [1.833333]
White [.875]
MDZ [.750]

That's 84.3M there, so 800k over the cap even with a 20 man skeleton crew.

I'm not sure where you can save money either - the team is already running out six guys who are basically at the league minimum [Greig, Kelly, Kastelic, Sokolov, Sanderson, JBD]. Even waiving and burying Joseph wouldn't do it because that only gives you 1.15M in relief which is almost entirely eaten up by whatever player replaces him on the roster. Can't see Pinto any lower than 1.75M either - he doesn't have much leverage, but he did score 20 goals.

Basically you have to find a way to clear Joseph's entire hit which would be incredibly expensive.

I think if you replace Joseph with a minimal cost alternative, you would save around $2 m.

What it would cost to move Joseph, I don't know. Maybe some team would take him for future considerations if we are lucky. I guess if we are talking about getting lucky we might as well mention Murray getting bought out.

Regardless, that bottom 6 forwards is looking pretty weak, and not sure how about how strong the 3rd pair would be. It would be interesting to hear how Dorion thought it would all work out knowing the Debrincat situation, the need for a goalie, and the $83.5 m cap. A 20 player roster isn't ideal either & very few teams do that based on what I recall from previous research.

 

[SpezDispenser]

So the Sens are the only team of the 6 willing to give him 8 years?

I don't even think there's 2 teams willing to give 8 years. Where do you read that?

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

So the Sens are the only team of the 6 willing to give him 8 years?

I sure hope we're not thinking of giving him 8 years, even at a discount.

 

[Big Muddy]

Boom

So the Sens are the only team of the 6 willing to give him 8 years?

So, from Debrincat's perspective, taking the arbitrator's amount and waiting until next year & the cap increase would be appealing.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

I sure hope we're not thinking of giving him 8 years, even at a discount.

Doubtful anyone will.

 

[SpezDispenser]

So, from Debrincat's perspective, taking the arbitrator's amount and waiting until next year & the cap increase would be appealing.

Now it's a 90% chance imo.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

So, from Debrincat's perspective, taking the arbitrator's amount and waiting until next year & the cap increase would be appealing.

But why would those teams he wants to go to offer him term then but not now?

 

[Micklebot]

So... wrt moving Joseph to make room for DeBrincat,

Here are some guys that signed for similar money of late;

Nic Roy, 3mx5yrs, 25 years old at the time, 39 pts in 78 games at the time, 30 in 65 last year. Not much of a history prior.

Kerfoot, 3.5 x 2yrs, 28 yrd old, coming off 32 pts in 82, but averaged 38pts per 82 in his time with the leafs.

Rodrigues, 3 x 4 yrs, 29 yrs old, coming off 39 pts in 69, bit of a late bloomer as he really burst onto the scene last year with 43 in 82 but never really stood out prior.

I don't think anyone is taking Joseph without a little incentive, maybe retaining 500-800k is enough, maybe it takes a 2nd round pick, or maybe he gets packaged in a bigger deal.

That said, he's not a bad player, just not good value, and still has some upside.

As for DeBrincat, I'd still be open to a long term deal, but with Korpisalo I think the ship has sailed.

 

[SpezDispenser]

But why would those teams he wants to go to offer him term then but not now?

Want shmant. He'll be mulling over at least 5 7 year, 56 million dollar contracts. Might as well just wait at this point. No one wants the little bastard.

 

[Wallet Inspector]

But why would those teams he wants to go to offer him term then but not now?

Increased cap space next year.

Plus if a team like Dallas doesn't win the Cup next year they may want to make a big trade.

 

[SpezDispenser]

Did dorion short circuit yzermans brain? Maybe yzerman isn't used to being told no and went bananas on july 1st because of it.

 

[Boud]

So, from Debrincat's perspective, taking the arbitrator's amount and waiting until next year & the cap increase would be appealing.

Definitely seems to be a good option for him. He chooses where he goes, he signs probably a better deal he can get now.

The flip side of it is that right now teams still see him as a 40 goal guy who had a bit of a down year. What happens when Josh Norris comes back though ... he might not get as much ice time and opportunity as he did last season on the PP. It's a bit of a risk for him as well because if he has a another 27 goals- 65 point season then teams might not be willing to throw 8.5M on a 8 year deal.

All that said this trade is getting more and more difficult as the days go by. The fact that he can't get a contract done with some of the teams trying to acquire him says a lot about where the league is at right now. Teams are more careful at throwing big numbers for complimentary guys, especially smaller wingers. He's a great player but his package is not as appealing as some other guys who put up similar numbers.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Pinto could be squeezed down under 1.5M if need be. He has zero leaverage. We don’t need a 13th F or 7th D, we can run a 20 man roster while required. Also, Matt Murray is either getting bought out by someone or is going to find his way to Robidas island.

Murray can only be bought out now, if leafs have a player going to Arb, as the first buyout window has closed.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Ok, so sign Pinto at 1.5-2, add in a 7th D (Thomson at .863 for example) and fill in some Fwd spots with Greig (.863), Imama (.775), Smejkal (.870) and Crookshank (.838).

That's a full roster with about 4 mil in cap space. We might get another ~1 mil if Murray gets bought out.

Lets say we win the day in Arbitration, Debrincat gets 7.2.

Options become trade Debrincat for a roster player making 4-5 mil or so (that player would push off say Crookshank giving us 4.838 in space for him)

or, we could go with the fillers, and retain on Debrincat to make him more apealing, say @ 50%, we trade him at 3.6 for the acquiring team, suddenly that's a heck of an attractive rental, that you might be able to extend when the cap goes up.

the .400-1.400 in cap space we have left (depending on a Murray buyout) after retaining can be used to upgrade the bottom 6, I'd hold off till around the deadline to maximize the room.

Maximum Arb reduction is 15% so 7.65 million is the lowest DBC would get.

 

[Ouroboros]

There are three ways we can free up space;

1) Murray buyout, this one is completely out of our hands, but opens up about 1.3
2) Trade Joseph. not sure what it would take to move him, would someone take him for FC, idk, we might have to give up a pick. After a replacement roster player is taken into consideration, frees up maybe 2 m
3) Trade Forsberg, run with Korpi and Sogaard. again not sure what is required to move him but it frees up about 1.825

That's about 5 mil in options if you combine them.

Leafs buying out Murray would solve the problem for us, but I doubt we can count on that. It would be nice if Samsonov gets an earlier arb date than DeBrincat though, then we'd know ahead of time whether he can be kept in the fold or not.

Joseph I think would be very difficult to move

Trading Forsberg doesn't seem realistic. That just puts the club right back in the situation they tried to rectify by signing Korpisalo. If they though they could rely on Sogaard they could have just ran with him and Forsberg and avoided this whole mess.