Player Discussion Alex DeBrincat

[Golden_Jet]

Ah. Hmmm. I don't see all posts so clearly I missed some of the lead up.

That’s the downfall of “blocking “, losing context.

 

[Beech]

@BondraTime noted we're never going to sign a premium UFA. I agree with that.

So our only opportunity then to acquire high end talent is either draft it or take a shot at a trade like the DeBrincat trade.

Not my interpretation of @BondraTime 's view.

we all know, Ottawa is not a UFA destination!!!
1) the weather, city size and its relative; "middle of the road" dynamic wise
2) Canadian taxes

what he has argued is: we need to spend and do so lavishly to get UFAs..

a) Effectively, he is arguing that if we go to restaurants and are treated like shit, we need to tip generously.. So that as we continue to go to that restaurant(s), the workers will say.."he/she/them is a big tipper, let's treat him well".

b) and he is further adding that, it's because we are not generous tippers that we are not treated well. A bit of a circular argument with a).

I very much disagree with a) and b). 1) and 2) are too difficult of a hurdle to overcome.

so what you say is 100% accurate.. We need to draft it.... And we need to be prudent enough with FA signings or trades. So that we get more Giroux's. More Marc Methot's.

Yes, an Alex PeterAngelo will never look at us until he is 35 and needs a last contract.... WE NEED TO LIVE WITH IT.

My chances of being with a Hollywood starlet, is when she is 85 and needs helps getting to the bathroom. I live with it. Spending your money on some good looking women, just to impress.. Means, you are out the cash and she has had a good time at the geek's expense.

 

[Beech]

We won't if we have internal rules like they can't make more than 7 and 18.

With a rising cap I doubt that holds till the end of their contracts

that is not the rule.

you can make more than 7 and 18..... Please play as well or better. Please be as productive or better.

the CAT can get his 9 M.. is he going to be a 40 goal scorers. Add 40 assists.. and be, say a plus 20?

Had Brady's brother been interested in the Sens.. Fine.. Give him 12 million.. take his 100 points, his tenacity, his clutchness..

pay performance.. but pay it relative to your own stars..

don't bring in a 60 point man. Pay him more than Brady and Tim.. just so that you feel that you are big time...

 

[StoicSensFan]

That’s the downfall of “blocking “, losing context.

It's also a benefit in most cases.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

that is not the rule.

you can make more than 7 and 18..... Please play as well or better. Please be as productive or better.

the CAT can get his 9 M.. is he going to be a 40 goal scorers. Add 40 assists.. and be, say a plus 20?

Had Brady's brother been interested in the Sens.. Fine.. Give him 12 million.. take his 100 points, his tenacity, his clutchness..

pay performance.. but pay it relative to your own stars..

don't bring in a 60 point man. Pay him more than Brady and Tim.. just so that you feel that you are big time...

Short window for that rule to stay true though.. A rising cap will mean higher AAVs across the league. DeBrincat will likely be looking at 8.5 + imo now.. if this was in 3 years with similar production that number is 10+ Huberdeau signed at 10.5 AAV. If players cost more you need to pay up to get them . Sens are in a good spot with a young core off ELCs with what look like very good AAVs now. They will likely be able to fill in around them under the current max AAVs for a time but as salaries rise the $/point type of production also rises

 

[BondraTime]

Not my interpretation of @BondraTime 's view.

we all know, Ottawa is not a UFA destination!!!
1) the weather, city size and its relative; "middle of the road" dynamic wise
2) Canadian taxes

what he has argued is: we need to spend and do so lavishly to get UFAs..

a) Effectively, he is arguing that if we go to restaurants and are treated like shit, we need to tip generously.. So that as we continue to go to that restaurant(s), the workers will say.."he/she/them is a big tipper, let's treat him well".

b) and he is further adding that, it's because we are not generous tippers that we are not treated well. A bit of a circular argument with a).

I very much disagree with a) and b). 1) and 2) are too difficult of a hurdle to overcome.

so what you say is 100% accurate.. We need to draft it.... And we need to be prudent enough with FA signings or trades. So that we get more Giroux's. More Marc Methot's.

Yes, an Alex PeterAngelo will never look at us until he is 35 and needs a last contract.... WE NEED TO LIVE WITH IT.

My chances of being with a Hollywood starlet, is when she is 85 and needs helps getting to the bathroom. I live with it. Spending your money on some good looking women, just to impress.. Means, you are out the cash and she has had a good time at the geek's expense.

Jesus, seems you misunderstood entirely, as not a single thing you’ve written is what I said. Legitimately the only thing I said is trying to compare a 20 year old ELC contract and a UFA contract, signed years down the road, is absolutely pointless.

All I said, is ELC contracts are different than UFA contracts. Comparing what a core player is paid at age 20 to what UFA is looking for in a contract is extremely, unreliable, because they are in a completely different stratosphere of bargaining.

Not once did I say we need to spend lavishly. If we want to sign a good UFA, we will have to spend lavishly, again, because of the player being a UFA.

 

[Beech]

Short window for that rule to stay true though.. A rising cap will mean higher AAVs across the league. DeBrincat will likely be looking at 8.5 + imo now.. if this was in 3 years with similar production that number is 10+ Huberdeau signed at 10.5 AAV. If players cost more you need to pay up to get them . Sens are in a good spot with a young core off ELCs with what look like very good AAVs now. They will likely be able to fill in around them under the current max AAVs for a time but as salaries rise the $/point type of production also rises

yes,,, but that time frame for the Sen's is different.

Tim's contract starts this coming season. He has 8 years. Brady has 5 more.

So as a minimum, until Brady is one year out . So 4 years from now.. you better be careful with your salary structure.

if we assume Brady, Tim and player x is line 1... then player x on line 1 can be replaced by some FA at a dollar value higher then 8.3 (assuming he put up numbers).

but a player on line 2???? pay him line 1 money and he is 20-30 points less productive. and more than Tim and Brady???

As the cap goes up, yes salaries go up.. but that is inside of tiers.. not have tiers jumping each other..

Imagine yourself in that locker room SOA.. you are the first line left winger. Putting up points and being robust and making 8 M... you look at the second line left winger.. he is 20 points less, 1-2 levels of robustness below you and he is making 9 M.. and you have to put up with it for 5, 6, 7 or 8 more years.

How long before you ask for a trade out?

 

[Que]

That’s the downfall of “blocking “, losing context.

Literally my biggest fear anytime I post. That I come across as such a dick or idiot or loser that someone mutes my voice. I’d never want to offend anyone here that bad.

We’re a community where we’re supposed to come together, not divided. We can have different opinions on the same subject and still be civil, respectful fanatics.

 

[Que]

Also I would like to add that I imagine if we offered a contract that was 7.775 x 8 to Alex that was 7 million in bonus money every year he’d sign in a heartbeat.

The problem is as an organization we don’t have 7 million dollars just laying around. We’re broke until big daddy Andlauer comes in here to save us.

 

[Beech]

Jesus, seems you misunderstood entirely, as not a single thing you’ve written is what I said. Legitimately the only thing I said is trying to compare a 20 year old ELC contract and a UFA contract, signed years down the road, is absolutely pointless.

All I said, is ELC contracts are different than UFA contracts. Comparing what a core player is paid at age 20 to what UFA is looking for in a contract is extremely, unreliable, because they are in a completely different stratosphere of bargaining.

Not once did I say we need to spend lavishly. If we want to sign a good UFA, we will have to spend lavishly, again, because of the player being a UFA.

I get you.. I understand that as a player moves through his years and gets closer to year 7, power shifts to him (if he is performing well).

And so yes, a 6th year player, yields way more power than a 3rd year..

But once a player on your team...regardless of his tenure. whether year 3 to year 13.. once he signs and becomes a team leader in points and/or robustness, leadership... that LOCKS the whole structure.

Now there is no way to move it.... You are happy as a pig in shit when 20 year old Tim S. signed an 8 x 8.3, then put up 90 points... yes..we all are... It meant that you now have your bench mark... your standard for all future contracts for the next 4-8 years.

who cares what UFA comes in and wants what. Or some FA... you are locked.

violate that and you better hope Tim is okay with it, or get a "trade me request".

 

[Loach]

I get you.. I understand that as a player moves through his years and gets closer to year 7, power shifts to him (if he is performing well).

And so yes, a 6th year player, yields way more power than a 3rd year..

But once a player on your team...regardless of his tenure. whether year 3 to year 13.. once he signs and becomes a team leader in points and/or robustness, leadership... that LOCKS the whole structure.

Now there is no way to move it.... You are happy as a pig in shit when 20 year old Tim S. signed an 8 x 8.3, then put up 90 points... yes..we all are... It meant that you now have your bench mark... you standard for all future contracts for the next 4-8 years.

who cares what UFA comes in and wants what. Or some FA... you are locked.

violate that and you better hope Tim is okay with it, or get a "trade me request".

% of the cap would be a better guide in comparison of contracts than just dollars, no?

 

[Beech]

% of the cap would be a better guide in comparison of contracts than just dollars, no?

no... you open you bank account, you see dollars. You fly to Europe for 1 month, you spend dollars. You buy a Ferrari for 1 M. It is in dollars.

you put up 90 points, you see 8.3 million
he puts up 60 points.... you better see, less than 8.3 million.. I mean way less.

 

[Hockeysawks]

They don’t have the cap room to pay him, 17 million with 11 guys left to sign? I think that’s what the tv just said.
Trade him and find a 4 million dollar 2nd to 3rd line tweener.

 

[BondraTime]

no... you open you bank account, you see dollars. You fly to Europe for 1 month, you spend dollars. You buy a Ferrari for 1 M. It is in dollars.

you put up 90 points, you see 8.3 million
he puts up 60 points.... you better see, less than 8.3 million.. I mean way less.

You put up 90, you see 9/10 million, and that’s only going to go up.

Brady’s contract as soon as next year will be equivalent to ~9 million adjusted. By 2025 it will likely be higher.

The Sens aren’t going to be signing anyone higher, because they likely can’t attract them. They want to set a limit of Tkachuk and Stutzle, that’s perfectly fine. But that line of thinking is going to lead to getting burned like we just did with DBC, because players like him can, and will, ask for what they have garnered though their previous shorter contracts taking them to UFA, and that is a contract that is much different than an ELC contract signed years prior.

 

[SpezDispenser]

Debrincat with 1 year left rental to be UFA vs debrincat locked down for 8 years should present wildly different value and offers from teams. Look what this team gave up for 2 years, which at the time ppl thought was a good deal for sens. And it included pieces that were extremely valuable. It needed to otherwise debrincat wouldn’t be a sen.

If he’s going to a team with extension in hand, why wouldn’t we expect top prospect, pick(s), decent roster players coming back? f*** all this noise about teams not willing to give up this guy or that guy and only want to send back scraps. If you’re signing this guy for 8 years the return will include pieces you don’t want to give up. Especially if it’s a rival team in our division. Some of these fans are delusional, 2nd round picks and bottom 6 players as centerpieces for a top line goal scorer. Don’t be convinced by their nonsense.

Totally agree. Good post.

 

[bicboi64]

Debrincat with 1 year left rental to be UFA vs debrincat locked down for 8 years should present wildly different value and offers from teams. Look what this team gave up for 2 years, which at the time ppl thought was a good deal for sens. And it included pieces that were extremely valuable. It needed to otherwise debrincat wouldn’t be a sen.

If he’s going to a team with extension in hand, why wouldn’t we expect top prospect, pick(s), decent roster players coming back? f*** all this noise about teams not willing to give up this guy or that guy and only want to send back scraps. If you’re signing this guy for 8 years the return will include pieces you don’t want to give up. Especially if it’s a rival team in our division. Some of these fans are delusional, 2nd round picks and bottom 6 players as centerpieces for a top line goal scorer. Don’t be convinced by their nonsense.

Cat's performance this season somewhat showed that he isn't a line driver. In a year where scoring was at an all-time high in several years, Cat didn't even hit 30g and was a PP merchant given how much of his scoring was off the PP compared to his previous seasons.

Yes its a down year, but if he needs someone of Kanes' calibre to be on his line, not every team can offer him that opportunity. Even if we trade an extended DeBrincat, teams aren't going to be lining up for a winger that they need to support in order to potentially get 40, heck even 30g out of.

 

[Dionysus]

Cat's performance this season somewhat showed that he isn't a line driver. In a year where scoring was at an all-time high in several years, Cat didn't even hit 30g and was a PP merchant given how much of his scoring was off the PP compared to his previous seasons.

Yes its a down year, but if he needs someone of Kanes' calibre to be on his line, not every team can offer him that opportunity. Even if we trade an extended DeBrincat, teams aren't going to be lining up for a winger that they need to support in order to potentially get 40, heck even 30g out of.

To be fair, he was playing with a rookie center who was in over his head, and isn't known for his playmaking. Along with Batherson who was dealing with his lingering high ankle sprain for much of the season. Not top 6 quality linemates at 5 on 5. He did have some time with Giroux, but barely any with Stu.

 

[SpezDispenser]

Cat's performance this season somewhat showed that he isn't a line driver. In a year where scoring was at an all-time high in several years, Cat didn't even hit 30g and was a PP merchant given how much of his scoring was off the PP compared to his previous seasons.

Yes its a down year, but if he needs someone of Kanes' calibre to be on his line, not every team can offer him that opportunity. Even if we trade an extended DeBrincat, teams aren't going to be lining up for a winger that they need to support in order to potentially get 40, heck even 30g out of.

But you need to support any wingers to get a 40 goal result. It's not happening when teams totally focus on you when you have a rookie c playing where he shouldn't be and a banged winger for basically the whole season.

I'd like to see the stats if you switched him and Tkachuk or Giroux for all of last year.

Oddly though, he's probably the guy who I'm least upset about asking out from our top 6.

 

[sennysensen]

The only way this could work out is if there is more than 1 team he'll extend with and they have to outbid each other.

An extended dbc is worth a lot

Not necessarily, as teams desparate for scoring like Carolina or Islanders will also make strong bids for Cat as a rental. Look what similar and worse players went for at the trade deadline in recent years. There are almost no decent free agents available this year, it's a historically bad FA class.

 

[JD1]

That’s the downfall of “blocking “, losing context.

Agreed. But there's an upside to it

Not my interpretation of @BondraTime 's view.

we all know, Ottawa is not a UFA destination!!!
1) the weather, city size and its relative; "middle of the road" dynamic wise
2) Canadian taxes

what he has argued is: we need to spend and do so lavishly to get UFAs..

a) Effectively, he is arguing that if we go to restaurants and are treated like shit, we need to tip generously.. So that as we continue to go to that restaurant(s), the workers will say.."he/she/them is a big tipper, let's treat him well".

b) and he is further adding that, it's because we are not generous tippers that we are not treated well. A bit of a circular argument with a).

I very much disagree with a) and b). 1) and 2) are too difficult of a hurdle to overcome.

so what you say is 100% accurate.. We need to draft it.... And we need to be prudent enough with FA signings or trades. So that we get more Giroux's. More Marc Methot's.

Yes, an Alex PeterAngelo will never look at us until he is 35 and needs a last contract.... WE NEED TO LIVE WITH IT.

My chances of being with a Hollywood starlet, is when she is 85 and needs helps getting to the bathroom. I live with it. Spending your money on some good looking women, just to impress.. Means, you are out the cash and she has had a good time at the geek's expense.

We acquired Methot via trade. Foligno for Methot, I don't recall if there were draft picks involved but I think it was straight up

 

[JD1]

Jesus, seems you misunderstood entirely, as not a single thing you’ve written is what I said. Legitimately the only thing I said is trying to compare a 20 year old ELC contract and a UFA contract, signed years down the road, is absolutely pointless.

All I said, is ELC contracts are different than UFA contracts. Comparing what a core player is paid at age 20 to what UFA is looking for in a contract is extremely, unreliable, because they are in a completely different stratosphere of bargaining.

Not once did I say we need to spend lavishly. If we want to sign a good UFA, we will have to spend lavishly, again, because of the player being a UFA.

Guess that explains why he didn't understand my reply

 

[JD1]

Cat's performance this season somewhat showed that he isn't a line driver. In a year where scoring was at an all-time high in several years, Cat didn't even hit 30g and was a PP merchant given how much of his scoring was off the PP compared to his previous seasons.

Yes its a down year, but if he needs someone of Kanes' calibre to be on his line, not every team can offer him that opportunity. Even if we trade an extended DeBrincat, teams aren't going to be lining up for a winger that they need to support in order to potentially get 40, heck even 30g out of.

I find a phrase gets uttered here on HF and then repeated over and over until it's taken as gospel

An example of that is Brannstrom not being a strong skater was repeated for a few years and this past year we heard the team brass refer to him as a terrific skater several times.

DeBrincat isn't a line driver. DeBrincat played most of the year with a rookie centre who's strength is likely never going to be dishing the puck and with a guy that spoke openly about struggling to regain form from an ankle injury. What exactly do you expect him to do in that scenario? For starters it's typically the center that drives a line, certainly more often than not it's the centre. That line struggled all year in large part because of the rookie centre and because Batherson wasn't fully up to speed.

DeBrincat has scored the 14th most goals in the NHL over the last 6 years. 6 years! This isn't a one hit wonder. This is a pattern. And of the 13 guys that scored more than him, 7 were centers. Unless they change the rules to something other than most goals wins, teams will want to acquire DeBrincat.

know what else is highly valued. Health. Know how many forwards have played more games than DeBrincat in the last 6 years? 3.

 

[Beech]

We acquired Methot via trade. Foligno for Methot, I don't recall if there were draft picks involved but I think it was straight up

yes, my point. Giroux was an example of an FA signing. Methot was of a trade.

this franchise needs to live in that world. Where it makes trades that are prudent and fruitful. And FA signings along the same lines.

It cannot chase a PeterAngelo, nor can it realistically expect an Eichel trade.
It definitely cannot do a Stone trade and definitely cannot do a Dadonov signing.

one team, the Stanley cup champs are our 10 commandments.

 

[UglyPuckling]

It’s absolutely control over the asset for 2 years. We had him this past year, and could have him again next season if we wanted to keep him rather than trade him. It would be f***ing moronic to hold him until ufa, but it’s 2 years of control.

But that’s not relevant. If you consider it less than 2 years in actuality vs what the team gave up for him, that actually supports my point further, not less. He’s a valuable asset. Teams have to provide value for said asset. Look what a team gave up for 2 (or less) seasons. What should a team give up for 8?

That means that Pierre was prepared to go for his $9 m QO 2nd year and be prepared to see him walk to UFA if the Senators were in a playoff position come trade deadline. If that scenario came to fruition, it would still be an expensive 2-year rental versus an expensive 1-year rental (if he's traded this summer).

So, that's still a risky proposition and an expensive price in a lot of people's minds. I'm not sure where you get the idea that a 7th overall (plus 2nd & 3rd) wasn't significant value to give up. The Senators are a team that relies upon drafting for its best, core players and last year's draft could have been the last opportunity to snatch a good young player via the draft if the team improved over time as we hoped it would.

We still desperately needed a RD at that time despite claims that the rebuild was over. You'd hope Dorion could do the math to see how tight we'd be against the cap (assumes a $83.5 m cap) in 2023-24.

I didn't say anything about what we could expect as a return in a trade, so I'm not sure why you are mentioning this in a reply to my post?

 

[bicboi64]

DeBrincat isn't a line driver. DeBrincat played most of the year with a rookie centre who's strength is likely never going to be dishing the puck and with a guy that spoke openly about struggling to regain form from an ankle injury. What exactly do you expect him to do in that scenario? For starters it's typically the center that drives a line, certainly more often than not it's the centre. That line struggled all year in large part because of the rookie centre and because Batherson wasn't fully up to speed.

DeBrincat has scored the 14th most goals in the NHL over the last 6 years. 6 years! This isn't a one hit wonder. This is a pattern. And of the 13 guys that scored more than him, 7 were centers. Unless they change the rules to something other than most goals wins, teams will want to acquire DeBrincat.

know what else is highly valued. Health. Know how many forwards have played more games than DeBrincat in the last 6 years? 3.

Cat scored those goals with one of the best playmakers of our generation. Kane is also a line driving winger who elevates everyone around him (offensively at least). To anyone acquiring Cat, how many of those teams have a playmaker of that calibre? Kucherov, Rantanen, Kaprizov, Panarin, Marner, Connor, Gaudreau, Robertson, etc... These are all line driving players. Centres aren't always the ones that drive play, it depends on the players you have and their strengths.

Cat certainly has value signed at 8 years, but he is a luxury/complimentary piece for almost every team acquiring him, except Detroit who is starved for top 6 forwards.