Player Discussion Alex DeBrincat

[SpezDispenser]

Are you honestly ignoring that Tolvanen makes 1.45M and DeBrincat will make 7.5-9M?

Because he's 1/8th as good?

 

[DaveMatthew]

Tolvanen: 41 career goals
Debrincat: 187 career goals.

Gee, I wonder why one guy is on track for an 8yr/$8M+ AAV contract and the other guy was on waivers this year????

Nobody is questioning that Debrincat is a better player.

The problem is that we traded a lottery pick for, if Bruce Garrioch is to believed, a player who has no interest in playing here.

We'll now have to trade him for pennies on the dollar, and by February, everyone will be talking about how we should trade for a 2nd line winger who can score 25 goals. Meanwhile Tolvanen will probably score 25 goals next year.

There was always a risk that Debrincat would not extend. Claiming Tolvanen, for free off waivers, would have been a very reasonable contingency plan.

But this org continues to have little to no foresight. Passing on him didn't make sense then (considering we were also without Formenton), and it makes even less sense in hindsight.

 

[Sun God Nika]

Are you honestly ignoring that Tolvanen makes 1.45M and DeBrincat will make 7.5-9M?



Low.

Chances that Hall waives his NTC to come to Ottawa? Even lower.

I’m less worried about players not wanting to come to Ottawa anymore. Ottawa is going to be competitive and the Melnyk cloud is gone. The concern is more on Boston willing to gift wrap a second line winger to a team in the division

 

[BondraTime]

I’d be surprised if there was 3 teams seriously looking at DBC this year.

Next year as a UFA, he’ll have a handful of teams looking at signing him.

Trading for him with a year until UFA and a very high contract, there’s not going to be a market.

If there isn’t an extension agreed upon, which I’m not sure why DBC would agree to after a career worst year, the options are going to be very limited, and the return very disappointing.

Still going to guess we get a Martinhook + Drury + Pick type return

 

[Hale The Villain]

Because he's 1/8th as good?

Well that's my point. He's not 1/8 as good, he's better than that.

In a normal season he'll probably be able to produce over half as many goals as DeBrincat at 1/8 the salary. Same goes for some of the other cheap depth scorers Seattle added to their roster.

The biggest reason Seattle managed to make the post-season, despite have no stars at any position and experiencing awful goaltending, was because they scored by committee and were comfortable playing "one-dimensional" snipers like Tolvanen, Sprong and Donato throughout their lineup.

Got 52 goals from those 3 players at a combined salary of 3.4M and didn't spend anything in assets to acquire those 3 guys. Compare that to trading the 7th + 39th OVR picks, spending all our available cap space for DeBrincat, and gutting our depth to load up the top 6, and I think it's obvious which is the smarter course of action.

 

[DaveMatthew]

I’d be surprised if there was 3 teams seriously looking at DBC this year.

Next year as a UFA, he’ll have a handful of teams looking at signing him.

Trading for him with a year until UFA and a very high contract, there’s not going to be a market.

If there isn’t an extension agreed upon, which I’m not sure why DBC would agree to after a career worst year, the options are going to be very limited, and the return very disappointing.

Still going to guess we get a Martinhook + Drury + Pick type return

Detroit will probably be interested, but Yzerman is not going to overpay, and looking at what they have to offer, there's not much there of interest.

Washington I could see, since they want to make a run at the end of Ovie's career and will need a replacement after. But we'd have to take back Mantha who's... underwhelming.

Beyond that? I doubt Carolina will want him since Waddell has been pretty up front about wanting his team to get bigger. Nashville, probably not. LA? Doubt it. Anaheim? Again, not what they need.

It'll be slim pickings.

 

[BondraTime]

Tolvanen as a free pickup would have been wise for the Sens.

I wasn’t a fan of Tolvanen, but he’s proved me wrong this year. Looks like a legit depth scoring piece.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Detroit will probably be interested, but Yzerman is not going to overpay, and looking at what they have to offer, there's not much there of interest.

Washington I could see, since they want to make a run at the end of Ovie's career and will need a replacement after. But we'd have to take back Mantha who's... underwhelming.

Beyond that? I doubt Carolina will want him since Waddell has been pretty up front about wanting his team to get bigger. Nashville, probably not. LA? Doubt it. Anaheim? Again, not what they need.

It'll be slim pickings.

So 15 minutes from the TDL with the Sens on the verge of their 1st playoff appearance since the Duchene acquisition / tear down decision coincided it is. It probably makes some sense that Dorion would push this down the road and lay the decision on the new owners from there. He is definitely not in a winning/endearing situation here

 

[BankStreetParade]

Nobody is questioning that Debrincat is a better player.

The problem is that we traded a lottery pick for, if Bruce Garrioch is to believed, a player who has no interest in playing here.

We'll now have to trade him for pennies on the dollar, and by February, everyone will be talking about how we should trade our 2024 1st for a 2nd line winger who can score 25 goals. Meanwhile Tolvanen will probably score 25 goals.

There was always a risk that Debrincat would not extend. Claiming Tolvanen, for free off waivers, would have been a very reasonable contingency plan.

But this org continues to have little to no foresight.

I remember 100s and 100s of pages about another American-born player on the team who posters kept insisting was giving all the signals that he was leaving, that he wanted a bridge contract and wouldn't budge on that, that he wanted heaven and earth on his next contract, whose family were in his ear imploring him to go somewhere else...and ended up signing a fair 8 year contract at an AAV that is already looking like a good deal for us.

Some guys on here have been saying the sky is falling for years now and yet every time I look up, there it is! Intact. Most days it's blue and bright. Sometimes it gets a little cloudy but that's life, isn't it?

Everything else you're saying is a hypothetical. Trade values judged by HFB posters? Come on. Absolutely meaningless. I'm pretty confident when I say I've never seen a group of people be more wrong about a topic, more consistently, than HFB posters talking trades and trade values. That shit is laughable. Pennies on the dollar is just something you made up. You don't know that anymore than I know we could get Connor McDavid for him.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Detroit will probably be interested, but Yzerman is not going to overpay, and looking at what they have to offer, there's not much there of interest.

Washington I could see, since they want to make a run at the end of Ovie's career and will need a replacement after. But we'd have to take back Mantha who's... underwhelming.

Beyond that? I doubt Carolina will want him since Waddell has been pretty up front about wanting his team to get bigger. Nashville, probably not. LA? Doubt it. Anaheim? Again, not what they need.

It'll be slim pickings.

I would disagree on Anaheim. Their future is stacked and with 40M in cap space and limited UFA options that fit their team's core age, I think DeBrincat would be a perfect fit.

Lamoreillo has never cared one iota about his team's future and I could see him being interested in bringing DeBrincat to the Island.

Pittsburgh is a possibility, depending on what Dubas wants to do. I don't think they'll rebuild and if they want to get younger while improving the team DeBrincat could be a fit. We'd need to take on Granlund but if that means getting the 14th OVR pick + I would be fine with that.

Also worth noting there's always teams out there that shouldn't be interested, or at least don't seem like a great fit, that find themselves in the mix. If you would have told me Vancouver would be the team to trade significant assets for yet another smallish offensive D in Hronek, I would have laughed at you. So who knows.

 

[DaveMatthew]

I remember 100s and 100s of pages about another American-born player on the team who posters kept insisting was giving all the signals that he was leaving, that he wanted a bridge contract and wouldn't budge on that, that he wanted heaven and earth on his next contract, whose family were in his ear imploring him to go somewhere else...and ended up signing a fair 8 year contract at an AAV that is already looking like a good deal for us.

Some guys on here have been saying the sky is falling for years now and yet every time I look up, there it is! Intact. Most days it's blue and bright. Sometimes it gets a little cloudy but that's life, isn't it?

Everything else you're saying is a hypothetical. Trade values judged by HFB posters? Come on. Absolutely meaningless. I'm pretty confident when I say I've never seen a group of people be more wrong about a topic, more consistently, than HFB posters talking trades and trade values. That shit is laughable. Pennies on the dollar is just something you made up. You don't know that anymore than I know we could get Connor McDavid for him.

And I remember many posters talking about how Stone signing that 1-year extension was not a big deal. He wanted to be here and they just needed to iron a few things out. Nothing to worry about. That has as much bearing on the situation with Debrincat as Bobby Ryan.

Unless you're talking about Tkachuk? Which was a completely different situation considering he was an RFA coming off an ELC...

And nobody is saying the sky is falling. GMs make bad decisions all the time. Not just our GM, but GMs of other teams too. Ours just seems to make more than his fair share. Which is probably why his team still can't get into the playoffs. (Don't worry, he's made some good ones too, and we can all agree there is some potential here...)

Trading for Debrincat, in hindsight considering his performance last year and his apparent unwillingness to play here moving forward, looks to be another bad decision.

Shocker - fans on discussion board will discuss bad decisions!

 

[BondraTime]

I mean, it should be a universally agreed principal that a DBC trade will be pennies on the dollar compared to what we gave up less than a year ago, no?

Less control, higher cap and salary, coming off a much worse season; of course the trade will be recouping whatever we can get compared to what we gave up.

If there is an agreed upon extension, it’s less bleak for us.

 

[Sun God Nika]

I mean, it should be a universally agreed principal that a DBC trade will be Pennie’s on the dollar compared to what we gave up less than a year ago, no?

I mean if the Isles 17th overall is available from Detroit that might be a better pick than the 7th overall from 2022.

 

[DaveMatthew]

I would disagree on Anaheim. Their future is stacked and with 40M in cap space and limited UFA options that fit their team's core age, I think DeBrincat would be a perfect fit.

Venturing over to the Ducks forum, their fans seem to think a small goal-scoring winger is the last thing they need. Sounds like they want more size, especially on D.

Considering they have to re-sign Zegras and Terry, doubt they want to spend $8M on Debrincat.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

I mean, it should be a universally agreed principal that a DBC trade will be pennies on the dollar compared to what we gave up less than a year ago, no?

Less control, higher cap and salary, coming off a much worse season; of course the trade will be recouping whatever we can get compared to what we gave up.

Depends. If we manage to mid-first rounder for this year, that isn't too far off from 7th overall last year considering how deep this draft is supposed to be.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Depends. If we manage to mid-first rounder for this year, that isn't too far off from 7th overall last year considering how deep this draft is supposed to be.

I'd take 17th OA + Kubalik... but I don't know if Detroit does that.

 

[BondraTime]

Depends. If we manage to mid-first rounder for this year, that isn't too far off from 7th overall last year considering how deep this draft is supposed to be.

This draft has an unbelievable top 5. After that, it’s like any other draft.

I take Korchinski, Mintyukov and Kasper over the guys ranked 6-10 in this draft.


We get a mid 1st, that’s mission accomplished in my eyes. Unfortunately, what teams in the 15 range are going to be trading for DBC? Only one possible o see is Detroit at 17, no other teams picking from 15 on seem like they are giving up a pick for DBC.

Still much less valuable than a 19 year old guy from last year at 7th (assuming they don’t Boucher the pick)

 

[Alf Silfversson]

I mean, it should be a universally agreed principal that a DBC trade will be pennies on the dollar compared to what we gave up less than a year ago, no?

Less control, higher cap and salary, coming off a much worse season, of course the trade will be recouping whatever we can get compared to what we gave up.

We didn't give up THAT much so I'd say no, I don't agree with that. I don't think we'll get full value on what we gave up but I think it could reasonably be close.

Gave up:
7th OA
39th OA
3rd round pick

I could see the return being:
15-24 OA
Prospect who was former second rounder type player (eg. Neiderbach from Detroit)
4-7th round pick.

I'd prefer we tried to get an almost-ready prospect from somebody over more picks but that might not be possible.

 

[bicboi64]

I would disagree on Anaheim. Their future is stacked and with 40M in cap space and limited UFA options that fit their team's core age, I think DeBrincat would be a perfect fit.

Lamoreillo has never cared one iota about his team's future and I could see him being interested in bringing DeBrincat to the Island.

Pittsburgh is a possibility, depending on what Dubas wants to do. I don't think they'll rebuild and if they want to get younger while improving the team DeBrincat could be a fit. We'd need to take on Granlund but if that means getting the 14th OVR pick + I would be fine with that.

A 2nd line forward like Granlund and a mid round pick is the best we can hope for at this point, I'd be 'content' with that type of return.

 

[SpezDispenser]

Well that's my point. He's not 1/8 as good, he's better than that.

In a normal season he'll probably be able to produce over half as many goals as DeBrincat at 1/8 the salary. Same goes for some of the other cheap depth scorers Seattle added to their roster.

The biggest reason Seattle managed to make the post-season, despite have no stars at any position and experiencing awful goaltending, was because they scored by committee and were comfortable playing "one-dimensional" snipers like Tolvanen, Sprong and Donato throughout their lineup.

Got 52 goals from those 3 players at a combined salary of 3.4M and didn't spend anything in assets to acquire those 3 guys. Compare that to trading the 7th + 39th OVR picks, spending all our available cap space for DeBrincat, and gutting our depth to load up the top 6, and I think it's obvious which is the smarter course of action.

While I get your argument - and it holds water depending on what Ottawa wants to do - Tolvanen is nowhere near as good as DBC. And I don't think it's even remotely close. DBC is a much better passer and that makes his elite level shot all the more dangerous, so while 1/8th as good was not really fair, I think it's a few levels below.

However, when you combine him with 2 other pieces, then Ottawa can conceivably replace DBC with some solid depth and other people have made similar arguments. Each POV has merit, there's no wrong answer really.

 

[Wallet Inspector]

Vegas has Brett Howden in their top 6 right now and are up 2-0 in the Stanley Cup Final. We don't need 6 All-Stars in the top 6 to be competitive. Norris and Batherson can carry a 2nd line on their own just fine, just need a guy who doesn't slow them down.

However, take a look at Vegas' 3rd line. Significantly better than ours. Taking DeBrincat's cap hit and putting that towards two middle 6 players instead could be the better move.

We have Greig on an ELC next year.

Tkachuk-Stutzle-Giroux
Debrincat-Norris-Batherson
Greig-Pinto-Joseph

That's a great top 9, both depth-wise and top end wise.

 

[Senator Stanley]

A 2nd line forward like Granlund and a mid round pick is the best we can hope for at this point, I'd be 'content' with that type of return.

That would be a disastrous return. Is Granlund even a positive asset, setting aside what Hextall paid for him before getting fired?

I would bring back DBC on a one-year deal and risk losing him for nothing before taking on Granlund at $5M for two more years.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Intra-division 3 way:

To Detroit: Alex Debrincat
To Montreal: 2023 17 OA (from DET)
To Ottawa: Josh Anderson + 2023 43rd OA (from DET)

I could see Dorion trying for something like that.

 

[BondraTime]

Intra-division 3 way:

To Detroit: Alex Debrincat
To Montreal: 2023 17 OA (from DET)
To Ottawa: Josh Anderson + 2023 43rd OA (from DET)

I could see Dorion trying for something like that.

Do we have a 2nd to toss in for someone?

 

[Alf Silfversson]

Intra-division 3 way:

To Detroit: Alex Debrincat
To Montreal: 2023 17 OA (from DET)
To Ottawa: Josh Anderson + 2023 43rd OA (from DET)

I could see Dorion trying for something like that.

I could see it too. I freakin' hope not but I could see it.

I think Detroit is a reasonable landing spot for DBC.

Any chance they'd go for:

To Detroit:
DBC
2024 2nd
Tyler Boucher

To Ottawa:
Lucas Raymond
Ben Chiarot (camp dump)

?