Player Discussion Alex DeBrincat

[bert]

I would trade him, no idea what the returns are looking like though

Id take whatever they can get. He doesnt fit in at that price tag with this teams roster construction.

Not if he's demanding 9m+ aav, no matter the term. He wont be able to live up to that number on our roster stapled on the 2nd line behind Tkachuk, and with the other talented players competing with him for ice time, pp min, and offensive zone opportunities, he simply wont have those prime opportunities to maximize his production with our current roster.

Dont get me wrong, he may very well be a 9M+ player and put up consistent 40g/ppg seasons somewhere else, but he needs to be the primary go to guy for the team he plays on to do that. I dont see him more than a 30g/70pt guy on our team, and he likely values himself as being a higher caliber player than that and wont be surprising if he demands to be paid as an elite 1st liner. I was on the fence regarding signing him all season, but i've come around to the idea of trading him and using the return/assets/cap space to shore up the goaltending and forward depth instead, I'm pretty convinced thats the better option at this point.

100 percent accurate. Its the only rational way to look at it.

With this roster make up would you take Barbashev at 5 million or Debrincat at 9? What about Bertuzzi at 6 Million or Debrincat at 9?

In a vacuum Debrincat is a better player than them but on this team I dont think they are any better having Debrincat than either of those players. In fact I think they are worse.

This also alows the team the cap space to get a goalie or another forward. Plus whatever assets they get back for the cat. Which right now they wont have a pick until the 4th round for 2 straight drafts. Hard to have sustainable success with 0 prospect depth.

 

[DaveMatthew]

I think everyone should stop using the $9M figure. That's not what Debrincat will be paid next year or on his next contract. I know that's his QO, but it doesn't matter. Ottawa will not pay him that, nor will a single other team in the league. And I can't imagine Debrincat will ask for it.

If he doesn't want to extend and is willing to play out next year, as Dorion said, they'll take him to arbitration and that number for next year will be bumped down to under $8M.

If he's seeking a 7-year extension on the market after next season, he'll be in the $7.5-8M range, if he scores ~35 goals next year.

If I was Debrincat, I'd be interested in a shorter-term extension. 3 years at $7.5M per. Lock in some money, take some more time to decide if you like Ottawa (it'd really be a 2-year extension since he'd hold all the power again going into year 3), rebuild your value and try UFA again at 28 when the cap is ~$95M.

That'd be ideal for Ottawa as well, since they keep him, get the cap hit down and maintain some flexibility heading into the next few years.

 

[bert]

I think everyone should stop using the $9M figure. That's not what Debrincat will be paid next year or on his next contract. I know that's his QO, but it doesn't matter. Ottawa will not pay him that, nor will a single other team in the league. And I can't imagine Debrincat will ask for it.

If he doesn't want to extend and is willing to play out next year, as Dorion said, they'll take him to arbitration and that number for next year will be bumped down to under $8M.

If he's seeking a 7-year extension on the market after next season, he'll be in the $7.5-8M range, if he scores ~35 goals next year.

If I was Debrincat, I'd be interested in a shorter-term extension. 3 years at $7.5M per. Lock in some money, take some more time to decide if you like Ottawa (it'd really be a 2-year extension since he'd hold all the power again going into year 3), rebuild your value and try UFA again at 28 when the cap is ~$95M.

That'd be ideal for Ottawa as well, since they keep him, get the cap hit down and maintain some flexibility heading into the next few years.

Do you really believe this? Why wouldnt he? He has the leverage and he can walk to UFA. Lets use some common sense.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Do you really believe this? Why wouldnt he? He has the leverage and he can walk to UFA. Lets use some common sense.

He has the leverage to walk to UFA, yes.

He doesn't have the leverage to get a $9M contract from Ottawa, or anyone else.

There is no team in the league that will pay him that. He'll either be taken to arbitration (where he'll likely get between $7.65-8M next year) and walk to UFA, or he'll re-sign in Ottawa (or somewhere else after a trade) for less than $9M/season.

As a UFA next year, he still won't get $9M.

 

[bert]

He has the leverage to walk to UFA, yes.

He doesn't have the leverage to get a $9M contract from Ottawa, or anyone else.

There is no team in the league that will pay him that. He'll either be taken to arbitration (where he'll likely get between $7.65-8M next year) and walk to UFA, or he'll re-sign in Ottawa (or somewhere else after a trade) for less than $9M/season.

As a UFA next year, he still won't get $9M.

Sure he does, the sens aren't going to lose him for nothing. If they dont give him his QO he walks to UFA. Thats why he structured the deal that way and thats why Chicago traded him.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Sure he does, the sens aren't going to lose him for nothing. If they dont give him his QO he walks to UFA. Thats why he structured the deal that way and thats why Chicago traded him.

Ottawa can elect to take him to arbitration to reduce the QO (where it can be reduced by up to 15%). And that's what Dorion indicated they would do.

With the down season he just had, Debrincat won't be awarded $9M. Arbitration is based purely on comparables, and 27-goal scorers don't make $9M.

If he decides to go to UFA and they bring him back on a 1-year deal, it'll be between $7.65M-8M.

On Alex DeBrincat and the idea of “cut-rate” arbitration: If a team elects to go through this process, it can argue for a salary reduction — which can’t be lower than 85 per cent of the previous season’s salary. When New Jersey traded for Timo Meier, multiple sources said they believed that’s exactly what the Devils would do if: a) they kept the winger in 2023-24 and b) he hadn’t signed an extension. So, in theory, Meier could drop from $10 million in 2022-23 to $8.5 million, and DeBrincat from $9 million to $7.65 million. Colorado went down this road with Ryan O’Reilly in 2014, before agreeing on a two-year extension. (The first season of that contract actually saw a drop from $6.5 million to $5.8 million.) It’s rare, but it happens.

32 Thoughts: The real question facing new Maple Leafs GM Brad Treliving

Will Ryan Smith bring a team to Salt Lake City? What's next on the Senators' ownership timeline? And what will be the fallout from the Brad Treliving and Kyle Dubas hirings? Elliotte Friedman has that and more in this edition of 32 Thoughts.

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Will taking him to arbitration burn the relationship? Yeah, probably. But if he doesn't extend, who cares. He's a much more tradeable asset at a lower salary and every cent counts.

If I'm Ottawa, I try to get his salary cut to $7.65M and then eat another 25% before trading him, if I have to. That'll open up all sorts of potential destinations.

There's risk for Debrincat. If he, for example, declines an 8x8 offer from Ottawa in June, he'll have to play out the year at a lower salary and if he has another down year, might not get another offer like that next summer. He's not Matthew Tkachuk. Teams won't be lined up for him.

 

[BondraTime]

Arbiters don’t look at 1 season, they’ll look at his past few seasons. Sens will lean heavily on this season, DBC and his agent will lean heavily on his 73 in 134 the previous 2.

Won’t just be his 27 goal season, will also be the previous 2 where he scored 73 in 134.

He’ll probably get 8ish million give or take regardless.

Taking him to arbitration is the right move either way. If we take him to arbitration, that means we’re trading him. Just gives the Sens more time, or another year out of him.

 

[KnuckChuckinTkachuk]

I think everyone should stop using the $9M figure. That's not what Debrincat will be paid next year or on his next contract. I know that's his QO, but it doesn't matter. Ottawa will not pay him that, nor will a single other team in the league. And I can't imagine Debrincat will ask for it.

If he doesn't want to extend and is willing to play out next year, as Dorion said, they'll take him to arbitration and that number for next year will be bumped down to under $8M.

If he's seeking a 7-year extension on the market after next season, he'll be in the $7.5-8M range, if he scores ~35 goals next year.

If I was Debrincat, I'd be interested in a shorter-term extension. 3 years at $7.5M per. Lock in some money, take some more time to decide if you like Ottawa (it'd really be a 2-year extension since he'd hold all the power again going into year 3), rebuild your value and try UFA again at 28 when the cap is ~$95M.

That'd be ideal for Ottawa as well, since they keep him, get the cap hit down and maintain some flexibility heading into the next few years.

I keep saying a 3-5 year deal at 8mil per sounds just about right for both sides.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Ottawa can elect to take him to arbitration to reduce the QO (where it can be reduced by up to 15%). And that's what Dorion indicated they would do.

With the down season he just had, Debrincat won't be awarded $9M. Arbitration is based purely on comparables, and 27-goal scorers don't make $9M.

If he decides to go to UFA and they bring him back on a 1-year deal, it'll be between $7.65M-8M.

32 Thoughts: The real question facing new Maple Leafs GM Brad Treliving

Will Ryan Smith bring a team to Salt Lake City? What's next on the Senators' ownership timeline? And what will be the fallout from the Brad Treliving and Kyle Dubas hirings? Elliotte Friedman has that and more in this edition of 32 Thoughts.

www.sportsnet.ca

Will taking him to arbitration burn the relationship? Yeah, probably. But if he doesn't extend, who cares. He's a much more tradeable asset at a lower salary and every cent counts.

If I'm Ottawa, I try to get his salary cut to $7.65M and then eat another 25% before trading him, if I have to. That'll open up all sorts of potential destinations.

There's risk for Debrincat. If he, for example, declines an 8x8 offer from Ottawa in June, he'll have to play out the year at a lower salary and if he has another down year, might not get another offer like that next summer. He's not Matthew Tkachuk. Teams won't be lined up for him.

This is a really good point. Forgot that we can take him to arbitration.

 

[UglyPuckling]

I think everyone should stop using the $9M figure. That's not what Debrincat will be paid next year or on his next contract. I know that's his QO, but it doesn't matter. Ottawa will not pay him that, nor will a single other team in the league. And I can't imagine Debrincat will ask for it.

If he doesn't want to extend and is willing to play out next year, as Dorion said, they'll take him to arbitration and that number for next year will be bumped down to under $8M.

If he's seeking a 7-year extension on the market after next season, he'll be in the $7.5-8M range, if he scores ~35 goals next year.

If I was Debrincat, I'd be interested in a shorter-term extension. 3 years at $7.5M per. Lock in some money, take some more time to decide if you like Ottawa (it'd really be a 2-year extension since he'd hold all the power again going into year 3), rebuild your value and try UFA again at 28 when the cap is ~$95M.

That'd be ideal for Ottawa as well, since they keep him, get the cap hit down and maintain some flexibility heading into the next few years.

How would anyone know what the arbitrator would rule ultimately? The process hasn't started. Yes, I understand the hypothetical 85%, but that doesn't mean that's what the arbitrator will do. Maybe I'm missing something?

 

[Micklebot]

How would anyone know what the arbitrator would rule ultimately? The process hasn't started. Yes, I understand the hypothetical 85%, but that doesn't mean that's what the arbitrator will do. Maybe I'm missing something?

Well, idk if arbitration gets him under 8, but it almost certainly gets him comfortably under 9.

There are about 37 forwards that had an 8 mil or higher cap hit, while Debrincat around 80th in pts per game.

 

[UglyPuckling]

Well, idk if arbitration gets him under 8, but it almost certainly gets him comfortably under 9.

There are about 37 forwards that had an 8 mil or higher cap hit, while Debrincat around 80th in pts per game.

I wasn't arguing for any specific amount, just that it didn't seem like anyone could say for sure what the arbitrator would do. I hadn't really done any kind of investigation into the subject, so I suppose your info is at least interesting.

I have no idea what Debrincat wants, or if he wouldn't just take a Qualifying Offer of $9 m as Dorion listed that as one of the many possibilities. I did note Dorion provided a "list" of possibilities in that podcast interview.

I guess the other question would be would the Senators offer $8 m or more and whether that would be wise.

 

[Micklebot]

I wasn't arguing for any specific amount, just that it didn't seem like anyone could say for sure what the arbitrator would do. I hadn't really done any kind of investigation into the subject, so I suppose your info is at least interesting.

Didn't mean to suggest you were arguing for any specific amount,

I have no idea what Debrincat wants, or if he wouldn't just take a Qualifying Offer of $9 m as Dorion listed that as one of the many possibilities. I did note Dorion provided a "list" of possibilities in that podcast interview.

Well, deadline to take him to arbitration is is two weeks or 48 hrs after the SC is awarded, so he really shouldn't get the option to just accept his QO.
The original post seemed to be getting at the idea that DeBrincat just signing his QO seems to be the least likely of possibilities, so we shouldn't just assume he'll be 9 mil for 1 year.

I guess the other question would be would the Senators offer $8 m or more and whether that would be wise.

Sure, my personal hope is we trade him if he wants more than 8, but 8 and under would be great.

 

[JimmyApples]

Sounds like everyone is pretty sure he’s not signing a long term extension in Ottawa?

 

[Cosmix]

Sounds like everyone is pretty sure he’s not signing a long term extension in Ottawa?

I don't think anyone knows what Debrincat and his wife want to do at this time.

However, if the Senators were to offer him a 7 or 8 year contract at $8M AAV with large annual signing bonuses and no trade/no movement clauses, I think he would likely accept it as it would set him and his family up for life.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I don't think anyone knows what Debrincat and his wife want to do at this time.

However, if the Senators were to offer him a 7 or 8 year contract at $8M AAV with large annual signing bonuses and no trade/no movement clauses, I think he would likely accept it as it would set him and his family up for life.

He won’t be getting signing bonuses, won’t have a new owner in time for that.

 

[JimmyApples]

I don't think anyone knows what Debrincat and his wife want to do at this time.

However, if the Senators were to offer him a 7 or 8 year contract at $8M AAV with large annual signing bonuses and no trade/no movement clauses, I think he would likely accept it as it would set him and his family up for life.

Maybe I’m in the minority, but I’m totally okay with Debrincat playing the season on his $9M QO and taking a shot at a long term extension during the season

 

[Cosmix]

He won’t be getting signing bonuses, won’t have a new owner in time for that.

I tend to agree as the Senators have not been known to offer large signing bonuses paid over the life of the contract; however that was under Melnyk. Even without signing bonuses, an $8M AAV might be enough to get him to sign.

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

Sounds like everyone is pretty sure he’s not signing a long term extension in Ottawa?

Yes. The bartender who’s friends with DeBrincat’s wife's cousins roommate said so.

 

[UglyPuckling]

Well, deadline to take him to arbitration is is two weeks or 48 hrs after the SC is awarded, so he really shouldn't get the option to just accept his QO.
The original post seemed to be getting at the idea that DeBrincat just signing his QO seems to be the least likely of possibilities, so we shouldn't just assume he'll be 9 mil for 1 year.

I listened to that podcast interview (Locked on Senators?). Dorion mentioned that he could or might go with the QO. Then again, he also listed all the other alternatives as possibilities as well. Hence, no real indication of his direction on this other than going with QO is a possibility if you take what was said at face value.

 

[Micklebot]

I listened to that podcast interview (Locked on Senators?). Dorion mentioned that he could or might go with the QO. Then again, he also listed all the other alternatives as possibilities as well. Hence, no real indication of his direction on this other than going with QO is a possibility if you take what was said at face value.

He listed every possible scenario, but it would be pretty dumb to give him the qualifying offer rather than either signing or trading him before hand or taking him to arbitration. Lots of people rip on Dorion but I don't think he's that dumb... Giving DeBrincat a QO has no upside for the team,

 

[UglyPuckling]

He listed every possible scenario, but it would be pretty dumb to give him the qualifying offer rather than either signing or trading him before hand or taking him to arbitration. Lots of people rip on Dorion but I don't think he's that dumb... Giving DeBrincat a QO has no upside for the team,

Oh for sure. I'm not suggesting it's Dorion's 1st option or preference. I'm just saying he is verbalizing it as an option. Sounded like he was waiting for feedback from Debrincat. He said something about 10 days, maybe waiting for feedback on a offer that was made?

 

[Masked]

One thing that I don't think has been mentioned yet is that he isn't eligible for a NTC until next season. So he could sign long term here, new ownership takes over, brings in a new GM and the new GM trades him to Winnipeg.

That could be something that his agent might want to protect against.

Assen na yo!

 

[Ice-Tray]

Ottawa can elect to take him to arbitration to reduce the QO (where it can be reduced by up to 15%). And that's what Dorion indicated they would do.

With the down season he just had, Debrincat won't be awarded $9M. Arbitration is based purely on comparables, and 27-goal scorers don't make $9M.

If he decides to go to UFA and they bring him back on a 1-year deal, it'll be between $7.65M-8M.

32 Thoughts: The real question facing new Maple Leafs GM Brad Treliving

Will Ryan Smith bring a team to Salt Lake City? What's next on the Senators' ownership timeline? And what will be the fallout from the Brad Treliving and Kyle Dubas hirings? Elliotte Friedman has that and more in this edition of 32 Thoughts.

www.sportsnet.ca

Will taking him to arbitration burn the relationship? Yeah, probably. But if he doesn't extend, who cares. He's a much more tradeable asset at a lower salary and every cent counts.

If I'm Ottawa, I try to get his salary cut to $7.65M and then eat another 25% before trading him, if I have to. That'll open up all sorts of potential destinations.

There's risk for Debrincat. If he, for example, declines an 8x8 offer from Ottawa in June, he'll have to play out the year at a lower salary and if he has another down year, might not get another offer like that next summer. He's not Matthew Tkachuk. Teams won't be lined up for him.

Agreed.

Dorion also mentioned that at that cap hit, being a close to 40 goal guy at the deadline next season would make him even more attractive for a trade.

Lots of options if he doesn’t want to sign a long term deal, none of them have us paying him 9 million next year.

 

[Ice-Tray]

He listed every possible scenario, but it would be pretty dumb to give him the qualifying offer rather than either signing or trading him before hand or taking him to arbitration. Lots of people rip on Dorion but I don't think he's that dumb... Giving DeBrincat a QO has no upside for the team,

He specifically mentioned the 15% along with the QO and arbitration, so you know he had that whole plan lined up if they go that route.