Player Discussion Alex DeBrincat

[Sens of Anarchy]

Quick Shifts: Maple Leafs must pounce on Lightning's biggest weakness

The Maple Leafs and the Victor Hedman advantage, Alex DeBrincat's future, Tom Wilson's loyalty, the Wild's galaxy-brain goalies approach and eight more NHL goodies are all in this edition of Luke Fox's Quick Shifts.

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As with all GMs and Battleship games, Pierre Dorion has earned his share of hits and misses.

In the moment, the Ottawa Senators’ bold swing to acquire Alex DeBrincat from Chicago at the 2022 draft felt like a win.

But DeBrincat’s just-OK contract year and GM Dorion’s inability to extend his prized winger complicate matters.

Ottawa surrendered first- and second-round picks in 2022 (Nos. 7 and 39 overall) plus a third-round choice in 2024 for one winter of DeBrincat, plus an exclusive negotiating window that has (so far) proven unfruitful.

At the trade deadline, the Senators were in a similar position with DeBrincat as the San Jose Sharks were with Timo Meier. One team recouped assets; the other played it cool and hoped.

DeBrincat’s steep qualifying offer ($9 million) complicates an extension. He did not play like a $9-million star this year, but Dorion is prepared to make that RFA offer while hoping to lower DeBrincat’s AAV in exchange for term.

Dorion has enough cap room to extend DeBrincat and certainly doesn’t want this marriage to end as a one-year rental to nowhere, but the player holds all the leverage at this point.

DeBrincat isn’t jumping to commit, and the uncertainty of Ottawa’s ownership throws a wrinkle into negotiations.

This will grow into a louder off-season debate.

 

[SlapJack]

Nostalgia leads many here to have kept certain players, and financial uncertainty has others wanting to get rid of DeBrincat. So imagine not bothering with DeBrincat and keeping Connor Brown with Nick Paul instead moving forward. Would cost almost the same, represents the bottom 6 depth being clamored for, and drops scoring down by about 50% with those 2 combined vs DeBrincat. And older.

That's a similar scenario to what will inevitably happen if thinking you can get 2 depth players for a top line forward is a better idea. No thanks, I'll keep DeBrincat.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Nostalgia leads many here to have kept certain players, and financial uncertainty has others wanting to get rid of DeBrincat. So imagine not bothering with DeBrincat and keeping Connor Brown with Nick Paul instead moving forward. Would cost almost the same, represents the bottom 6 depth being clamored for, and drops scoring down by about 50% with those 2 combined vs DeBrincat. And older.

That's a similar scenario to what will inevitably happen if thinking you can get 2 depth players for a top line forward is a better idea. No thanks, I'll keep DeBrincat.

As long as he wants to stay

 

[Butchy Dakkar]

After Stone and MD I understand the repulsion at the idea of a one year deal. Let’s hope it’s not a one year qual.

 

[Pinto Bean]

Best case scenario is the Sens signing Cat to a long-term extension for under 8M.

Worst case scenario is us locking in Cat to some crazy contract just cause we're in a tough spot. (See Bobby Ryan situation)

This is why, if we can't get a fair deal in on both sides, just move him for whatever value can be had even though it likely hurts us for the next year or two because I'd rather short-term pain then some contract that will drag us down for years and years.

 

[Big Muddy]

Nostalgia leads many here to have kept certain players, and financial uncertainty has others wanting to get rid of DeBrincat. So imagine not bothering with DeBrincat and keeping Connor Brown with Nick Paul instead moving forward. Would cost almost the same, represents the bottom 6 depth being clamored for, and drops scoring down by about 50% with those 2 combined vs DeBrincat. And older.

That's a similar scenario to what will inevitably happen if thinking you can get 2 depth players for a top line forward is a better idea. No thanks, I'll keep DeBrincat.

The points in your posts are good thoughts, but they ignore that Debrincat could end up being an expensive one year rental.

I keep seeing posters downplay the costs as well, but 7th overall can amount to something fairly frequently and could have long term benefits. I'm not arguing about the point you make about keeping Brown or Paul either just to make it clear as there were more options other than keep Paul/Brown versus acquire Debrincat.

There's some other factors such as Debrincat didn't have the strongest season from a point production point of view, and that we didn't make the playoffs. But, those factors play into the situation as well. You could look at these factors as hindsight, but those risks were always there pre-trade as well.

We do have enough cap room if Debrincat is willing to sign a more reasonable long term deal, and hopefully that will happen. But, this deal was always short term thinking largely and a roll of the dice imho. While the downside or negative consequences were not very popular given the euphoria of that time, they weren't really hidden or out of sight either. Hopefully it all works out.

 

[SlapJack]

The points in your posts are good thoughts, but they ignore that Debrincat could end up being an expensive one year rental.

I keep seeing posters downplay the costs as well, but 7th overall can amount to something fairly frequently and could have long term benefits. I'm not arguing about the point you make about keeping Brown or Paul either just to make it clear as there were more options other than keep Paul/Brown versus acquire Debrincat.

There's some other factors such as Debrincat didn't have the strongest season from a point production point of view, and that we didn't make the playoffs. But, those factors play into the situation as well. You could look at these factors as hindsight, but those risks were always there pre-trade as well.

We do have enough cap room if Debrincat is willing to sign a more reasonable long term deal, and hopefully that will happen. But, this deal was always short term thinking largely and a roll of the dice imho. While the downside or negative consequences were not very popular given the euphoria of that time, they weren't really hidden or out of sight either. Hopefully it all works out.

Yeah everything hinges on the parameters of the deal. If it's the 9M QO with no certainty, or he expresses a desire to leave, not much else you can do other than trade him. It has to be reasonable for both sides. Alex is probably not going to take 7, the team can't go much higher than 8 if at all.

 

[aragorn]

DBC
- $7 +$7 + ($8 X 6) = $62 mil plus signing bonus of $.5 mil per yr based on production (over 60 pts) = $66 mil (cap avg $8.25 mil). I imagine they could get quite creative to get this done.

- if they can get past the next 2 yrs that should free up a good chunk of cash. They need to move on from Joseph's contract asap.

- I assume Giroux retires after his contract is over in 2 yrs, he'll be 37 yrs old & that saves them about $6.5 mil.

- Hamonic is likely gone in a yr or 2 & Forsberg & Chychrun contracts also done in 2 yrs. Assuming Chychrun is re-signed (approx. $4.5 mil saved on the other two guys).

- the dead cap salary expenditures ($5.5 approx.) also ends in 2 yrs I think, $.875K for 4 yrs after that.

- cap should increase over the next 2 - 5 seasons as we come out of this recession. Assume $1 to $2 mil per yr, if it continues.

- Sanderson likely gets most of the free money when his contract is up in 2 yrs. Pinto should also get a decent contract at some point.

- $10 to 15 mil coming off the books in 2 yrs, cap could go up $2 to $5 over the next 2 to 5 yrs or more. Hopefully, that will be enough money to re-sign most of our good players or the most important ones.

 

[Ice-Tray]

DBC
- $7 +$7 + ($8 X 6) = $62 mil plus signing bonus of $.5 mil per yr based on production (over 60 pts) = $66 mil (cap avg $8.25 mil). I imagine they could get quite creative to get this done.

- if they can get past the next 2 yrs that should free up a good chunk of cash. They need to move on from Joseph's contract asap.

- I assume Giroux retires after his contract is over in 2 yrs, he'll be 37 yrs old & that saves them about $6.5 mil.

- Hamonic is likely gone in a yr or 2 & Forsberg & Chychrun contracts also done in 2 yrs. Assuming Chychrun is re-signed (approx. $4.5 mil saved on the other two guys).

- the dead cap salary expenditures ($5.5 approx.) also ends in 2 yrs I think, $.875K for 4 yrs after that.

- cap should increase over the next 2 - 5 seasons as we come out of this recession. Assume $1 to $2 mil per yr, if it continues.

- Sanderson likely gets most of the free money when his contract is up in 2 yrs. Pinto should also get a decent contract at some point.

- $10 to 15 mil coming off the books in 2 yrs, cap could go up $2 to $5 over the next 2 to 5 yrs or more. Hopefully, that will be enough money to re-sign most of our good players or the most important ones.

Theoretically as the cap continues to go up, the extra space will be ours to use on depth players since all of our stars will be locked up to deals that get better each year in terms of percentage of cap.

 

[Cosmix]

Theoretically as the cap continues to go up, the extra space will be ours to use on depth players since all of our stars will be locked up to deals that get better each year in terms of percentage of cap.

The Deadcap is not as bad as you indicated. It is as follows:

2022-23. 2023-24. 2024-25. 2025-26 & 2 years
5.124. 5.02. -625. 0.875

 

[Golden_Jet]

Nostalgia leads many here to have kept certain players, and financial uncertainty has others wanting to get rid of DeBrincat. So imagine not bothering with DeBrincat and keeping Connor Brown with Nick Paul instead moving forward. Would cost almost the same, represents the bottom 6 depth being clamored for, and drops scoring down by about 50% with those 2 combined vs DeBrincat. And older.

That's a similar scenario to what will inevitably happen if thinking you can get 2 depth players for a top line forward is a better idea. No thanks, I'll keep DeBrincat.

And Nick Paul has been roasted a lot in 2023 on Tampa board.

 

[Ice-Tray]

The Deadcap is not as bad as you indicated. It is as follows:

2022-23. 2023-24. 2024-25. 2025-26 & 2 years
5.124. 5.02. -625. 0.875

Huh? I didn’t say anything was bad. I was talking about the cap going up.

 

[bicboi64]

Nostalgia leads many here to have kept certain players, and financial uncertainty has others wanting to get rid of DeBrincat. So imagine not bothering with DeBrincat and keeping Connor Brown with Nick Paul instead moving forward. Would cost almost the same, represents the bottom 6 depth being clamored for, and drops scoring down by about 50% with those 2 combined vs DeBrincat. And older.

That's a similar scenario to what will inevitably happen if thinking you can get 2 depth players for a top line forward is a better idea. No thanks, I'll keep DeBrincat.

How does scoring drop 50%?

Cat had 66 points. Paul had 32 points and in an alt reality where Brown plays for Ottawa, 30-40 points is a fair prediction for him. We literally have the same production as Cat, also have either the 7th overall in our pipeline or another player we could've gotten for that pick (might as well have been CHychrun with that pick). If we keep the 7th overall, than we have $6 million to spend on a forward. We could've have Bjorkstrand for a mid round pick. Our team is harder to play against with two way guys that are puck hounds like Bjorkstrand, Brown, and Paul than Cat.

 

[DueDiligence]

Lol I was just making a joke about the McDonalds on Prince of Wales and Hogs Back, I used to live right by it and worked at the Boys & Girls Club near it. That place is ghetto af and cops were always around because of stabbings and theft. Now that McDonalds at Rideau is gone, Hogs Back McDonalds is probably the most ghetto McD's in the city.

Ghetto in Ottawa is a gated community compared to virtually every other city.

 

[Wallet Inspector]

The cap if likely going up after this offseason, signing Cat for 7.5 mil is a good idea.

 

[Micklebot]

How does scoring drop 50%?

Cat had 66 points. Paul had 32 points and in an alt reality where Brown plays for Ottawa, 30-40 points is a fair prediction for him. We literally have the same production as Cat, also have either the 7th overall in our pipeline or another player we could've gotten for that pick (might as well have been CHychrun with that pick). If we keep the 7th overall, than we have $6 million to spend on a forward. We could've have Bjorkstrand for a mid round pick. Our team is harder to play against with two way guys that are puck hounds like Bjorkstrand, Brown, and Paul than Cat.

Production is highly correlated to opportunity, I'm not sure Brown is getting the same opportunity with Batherson and Giroux ahead of him, he'd lose all his pp time for example. You've also go to account for the second order effect, if we take out one player and add two, you've got to balance the equation and remove or adjust somebody else's production, Joseph is the obvious choice, so take out his 18pts in 56gp, you could also attempt to account for the other 26 games. Also, does Paul actual score 32 here, he got much better linemates in Tbay than Joseph played with here, maybe he slides up the lineup and plays with Stü, or maybe Brown takes that spot, but they can't both have it.

 

[coladin]

I think he signs. He seems too well entrenched with the core not to sign. Everytime you hear of a group, it is always Chucky, Brniksy. Chychrun on the slumber party night? Chucky, Timmy, Brinksy, G...card game on the plane? Chucky, Brinksy, G. All-Star Break? In Florida with Chucky, Brinksy, etc...

I think he will rightfully think this through , and the fact that he is pondering it so much, while playing it cool in the media, tells me he is really breaking down how to spend the next 5 plus years of his life

 

[Silencio]

I love how DeBrincat spends all this time playing coy about his intentions in order to gain some more leverage in negotiations with Dorion or whatever, and then Chychrun goes on a podcast and totally blows his cover like HEY GUYS ALEX LOVES OTTAWA AND CUDDLES UP IN BED WITH US ON ROAD TRIPS TO WATCH NETFLIX SEN 4 LIFE Y'ALL

 

[Loach]

I think he signs. He seems too well entrenched with the core not to sign. Everytime you hear of a group, it is always Chucky, Brniksy. Chychrun on the slumber party night? Chucky, Timmy, Brinksy, G...card game on the plane? Chucky, Brinksy, G. All-Star Break? In Florida with Chucky, Brinksy, etc...

I think he will rightfully think this through , and the fact that he is pondering it so much, while playing it cool in the media, tells me he is really breaking down how to spend the next 5 plus years of his life

So...if you take him to arbitration it gives more time to sign him than just giving him the 1 year qualifier...is that right? Maybe he is waiting for new ownership that can pay signing bonuses? Arbitration would give more time for ownership to be settled, then he could get a 7m × 8 year deal with a bunch paid in bonuses...he get his money and team gets a better cap hit. Could this be a thing or have I got how it works all mixed up?

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

 

[Tragedy]

If you can't trust Dan Tait from twitter, who can you trust?

 

[Silencio]

If you can't trust Dan Tait from twitter, who can you trust?

Yeah who does he think he is, Kevin Weekes?

 

[WORLDSTARHIPHOP]

Damn this is pre-streets streets. This is like the lanes are talking

 

[Micklebot]

If you can't trust Dan Tait from twitter, who can you trust?

How many kids does he have though... @2CHAINZ do you have Intel on Tait's dependant status?

 

[Mingus Dew]

It's obviously crude but goddamn that meme template never fails to make me laugh.