Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXVIII (It's Working! Let's Fix It.)

[Revelation]

Once against Playoff team. That was CBJ/PIT back-to-back game.

Either way, i'll play along. Who takes that PK'er spot?

Did you remember to factor in the decrease in PK time to go around from Tom Wilson not being out there to be penalized?

 

[trick9]

They've generally split the time among guys who are already killing penalties. If you prefer a 1:1 swap for your game, I'd nominate Johansson, personally.

Johansson is a good shout for PK possibility.

But i meant as in who to acquire for that 4LW/RW role (whether it's Wilson or Winnik to drop).

 

[BobRouse]

Yeah he's really been dragging the Rangers down into the cellar.

It's amazing how the concept of players performing differently in different years under different systems/teams/coaches/injuries/etc eludes you.

Fastest player in the league can't create his own space... k. Speed from other teams utterly dismembered our lumbering ***** in our last 2 playoff exits... guess we can pretend that didn't happen either.

Yes true. His 22% shooting pctg is perfectly sustainable.

Wonder why teams weren't bending over backwards for this guy after several consecutive subpar seasons from the definition of a perimeter player.

 

[Revelation]

Yes true. His 22% shooting pctg is perfectly sustainable.

Wonder why teams weren't bending over backwards for this guy after several consecutive subpar seasons from the definition of a perimeter player.

Yeah, his past performance is more relevant than what he's doing this season.

Lets dig up Briere and give him a contract, he was a playoff animal back in the day after all

 

[BobRouse]

Yeah, his past performance is more relevant than what he's doing this season.

Lets dig up Briere and give him a contract, he was a playoff animal back in the day after all

Again if you think his ridiculous shooting pctg is sustainable then more power to you.

 

[trick9]

Did you remember to factor in the decrease in PK time to go around from Tom Wilson not being out there to be penalized?

Penalties (per 60): 1.05

Penalties drawn (per 60): 1.90

Tom Wilson is 7th among NHL regulars in drawing penalties. 100th something in penalties taken. Behind Ovechkin, too.

If you want to take out the additional PK time then you'll also need to take out the additional PP time he brings. You'll lose that exchange.

 

[Revelation]

Again if you think his ridiculous shooting pctg is sustainable then more power to you.

We don't need it to be. If you literally cut his production in half he's still up there with our top line forwards in ESG.

He generates 2-3 breakaways a game, pressures the puck on the PK like crazy and even if he doesn't score breakaways are still valuable.

But of course who cares what any player does this season when you didn't like what you saw from them years ago.

 

[Revelation]

Penalties (per 60): 1.05

Penalties drawn (per 60): 1.90

Tom Wilson is 7th among NHL regulars in drawing penalties. 100th something in penalties taken. Behind Ovechkin, too.

If you want to take out the additional PK time then you'll also need to take out the additional PP time he brings. You'll lose that exchange.

He leads our team in PIM and I don't recall him fighting much this season. I remember he was great at drawing penalties but lately it feels like the refs see him on the wrong end of everything.

 

[trick9]

He leads our team in PIM and I don't recall him fighting much this season. I remember he was great at drawing penalties but lately it feels like the refs see him on the wrong end of everything.

He'd still be clear #1 in the NHL without that reputation. It's hilarious how much the refs are letting go against him and still seeing him top-10 in that category.

 

[txpd]

He leads our team in PIM and I don't recall him fighting much this season. I remember he was great at drawing penalties but lately it feels like the refs see him on the wrong end of everything.

Tom Wilson has 40 PIMs this season. Malkin has more. Wilson has 4 fighting majors. 20 minutes in there. So take away those fighting penalties he has 20 minutes. That's 10 minor penalties in 40 plus games. Of those 10, at least a couple have to be matching minors.

If you think he is taking a lot of penalties, you would be effected by his rep yourself

Edit: Wilson is tied for 8th on the team with Oshie in minor penalties. Backstrom has more. Orlov and Kuznetsov have more

 

[Hivemind]

Johansson is a good shout for PK possibility.

But i meant as in who to acquire for that 4LW/RW role (whether it's Wilson or Winnik to drop).

I nominated Alex Burrows and Patrick Eaves as possible candidates on the last page. I also wouldn't be opposed to Vanek (although he'd likely slot above 4th line and push someone else down).

 

[trick9]

I nominated Alex Burrows and Patrick Eaves as possible candidates on the last page. I also wouldn't be opposed to Vanek (although he'd likely slot above 4th line and push someone else down).

Both guys who produce more, sure, but they also bleed way more goals against with more favourable zone starts and better teammates. I wouldn't mind Patrick Eaves as a cheap depth though.

For all that people keep watching how much guys like Parenteau produce more, they also bleed goals against at ES. Guy like P-A Parenteau has for years. His 3.5 GA/per 60 is slightly worse than Winnik's 0.5 per 60 (best on the Capitals).

Besides if you think Tom Wilson is overpaid on the 4th line role, then keep in mind that Alex Burrows makes twice as much money (4.5m AAV) than him and had less points while giving up way more goals against than Wilson last season.

I wouldn't mind Vanek because he has a potential to be a real game-changer. He would slot in place of Connolly(/someone else in top-9) like you said, though.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

He leads our team in PIM and I don't recall him fighting much this season. I remember he was great at drawing penalties but lately it feels like the refs see him on the wrong end of everything.

Leading our team in PIMs really isn't indicative of anything, our team just doesn't take a lot of penalties. Wilson is 54th in the league in PIMs and only has 4 fighting majors.

I think someone likely got in his ear about drawing in his play a bit as he was on a lot of officiating radars for a while and the lack of PIMs tells me it's somewhat working because he doesn't seem any less physical than he used to be.

 

[Langway]

Yes true. His 22% shooting pctg is perfectly sustainable.

FWIW Connolly is shooting 19.5%.

Hansen is another that can kill penalties and provide some versatility. I'm pretty skeptical that they'll acquire a player that takes Wilson's spot in the lineup, though. He might as well be traded if that's their assessment of him. So it's more likely about assessing Connolly, Winnik and maybe what they believe they can get out of Vrana.

 

[BobRouse]

FWIW Connolly is shooting 19.5%.

Hansen is another that can kill penalties and provide some versatility. I'm pretty skeptical that they'll acquire a player that takes Wilson's spot in the lineup, though. He might as well be traded if that's their assessment of him. So it's more likely about assessing Connolly, Winnik and maybe what they believe they can get out of Vrana.

True but Grabner's sample of 45 games is larger thus more of an aberration in terms of inflated %

Also Grabner has a miserable Corsi of 44.3% on a bad possession team (he is a -4.2% relative). He is a career slightly below avg possession player in fact and more often than not a - corsi relative player.

Connolly has only played 31 games. He is a 55.9% possession player with a +5.8 rel corsi. He is a career 52.1% possession player and a + rel corsi possession player in each of the past 4 seasons

Connolly is rocking an ES PDO of 104...won't last. Grabner's ES PDO is 108.5.....

Also our better play has in part coincided by giving Connolly and Winnik a regular spot in the lineup and keeping the lines intact. Both have played extremely well since then.

 

[Hivemind]

Both guys who produce more, sure, but they also bleed way more goals against with more favourable zone starts and better teammates. I wouldn't mind Patrick Eaves as a cheap depth though.

For all that people keep watching how much guys like Parenteau produce more, they also bleed goals against at ES. Guy like P-A Parenteau has for years. His 3.5 GA/per 60 is slightly worse than Winnik's 0.5 per 60 (best on the Capitals).

Besides if you think Tom Wilson is overpaid on the 4th line role, then keep in mind that Alex Burrows makes twice as much money (4.5m AAV) than him and had less points while giving up way more goals against than Wilson last season.

I wouldn't mind Vanek because he has a potential to be a real game-changer. He would slot in place of Connolly(/someone else in top-9) like you said, though.

My comments regarding Tom Wilson being overpaid stem back to his negotiating position more than anything else (he got overpaid compared to comparable players, despite having very little leverage). But the crux would be that there's no point to banking cap space after the trade deadline, so Burrows (and Wilson and Orpik and Winnik and whoever else) being overpaid no longer matters so long as they're cap compliant as a roster.

But my general desire for a player like Burrows is his flexibility to fill in higher in the line-up should someone get hurt or slump. Wilson doesn't really provide that flexibility, and certainly not at the level required for a team with Stanley Cup aspirations. Burrows provides the agitator qualities, but he can also play a complimentary role alongside scoring forwards (as he had at various points next to the Sedins). Plus his speed provides them with another forechecking/transition asset. This isn't to say Winnik or Wilson are playing poorly on the 4th line, but that they are far better suited in that 4th line role than they would be elsewhere in the line-up.

I'll leave the GF/60 and GA/60 metrics up to someone else to debate their validity as an even-strength evaluation tool.

 

[Hivemind]

True but Grabner's sample of 45 games is larger thus more of an aberration in terms of inflated %

Uhhh... that's the opposite of how sample sizes work.

 

[4thTierSport]

Yeah, his past performance is more relevant than what he's doing this season.

Lets dig up Briere and give him a contract, he was a playoff animal back in the day after all

It has a lot of relevance because it to a large scale predicts how the season ends.

Could he end up having another 10-11 season again? Sure, but it's more likely his S% plunges and the goals with it. He is close to being useless if he isn't scoring goals. The PK is already one of the top in the league and we have some pretty good threats in Winnick, Oshie and Beagle.

 

[g00n]

That $500K would have made a huge difference, and would have allowed them to actually carry 13F. That cap number decreases if they, you know, carry a full compliment of forwards.

But, go on, keep defending them overpaying your favorite 4th liner.

My favorite 4th liner is Beagle, but thanks for caring.

 

[Hivemind]

If the Lightning's injury concerns cause them to completely fall out of the playoff race and sell, Brian Boyle might be another guy I'd kick the tires on. His shooting% is probably higher than he's going to sustain, but he can provide value even when he's not scoring. Plus he can provide a change-of-pace option for down low on PP2 as a strong net front presence/screener (especially important if they don't get Vanek). He does PK, but he's not having the greatest season at actually preventing goals while shorthanded (historically he's been much better). Flexible enough to also fill in at center should one of our regular 4 centers get hurt (would definitely trust him more than Sanford as 4C in the playoffs).

 

[Revelation]

It has a lot of relevance because it to a large scale predicts how the season ends.

Could he end up having another 10-11 season again? Sure, but it's more likely his S% plunges and the goals with it. He is close to being useless if he isn't scoring goals. The PK is already one of the top in the league and we have some pretty good threats in Winnick, Oshie and Beagle.

If he plays like he cares he's far from useless since he's the fastest guy in the league. And there's no indication that he'll become a floater given the way the season's been going. Even if he's winning puck races or pressuring opposing D into coughing the puck up he's extremely useful. He's better than Chimera and Chimera played way over his head most of his playoffs here just by being big and fast all the time. We've already seen what speed does in the playoffs. Find the shakiest top 4 D on the opposing team and have Grabner hound him whenever he has the puck like Hagelin hounded us and it will be golden.

Also his S% is less likely to plunge than for most players since he scores so many of his goals on breakaways.

He's the best ESG producer in the entire friggen league right now, not through a week or a month but through half the season.

If they're getting a forward I'd rather they pay up for a guy who could make major impact (like Gaborik did for LA in 2014, remember everyone thought he was finished and he went for Matt Frattin and a 3rd but then exploded in the playoffs) rather than waste assets on another Glencross. If they're getting D just get an NHL regular better than Chorney since that D will probably be sitting if the current top 6 holds up. Say Brendan Smith or Dennis Seidenberg. It would be like the Pens getting Schultz so that if one of our guys goes down they step in and the defense hopefully doesn't miss a beat.

 

[Revelation]

If the Lightning's injury concerns cause them to completely fall out of the playoff race and sell, Brian Boyle might be another guy I'd kick the tires on. His shooting% is probably higher than he's going to sustain, but he can provide value even when he's not scoring. Plus he can provide a change-of-pace option for down low on PP2 as a strong net front presence/screener (especially important if they don't get Vanek). He does PK, but he's not having the greatest season at actually preventing goals while shorthanded (historically he's been much better). Flexible enough to also fill in at center should one of our regular 4 centers get hurt (would definitely trust him more than Sanford as 4C in the playoffs).

Does he actually have a history of being used on the PP as a net front presence?

He always steps up in the playoffs but he's still a very good 4th liner basically.

 

[Hivemind]

Does he actually have a history of being used on the PP as a net front presence?

He always steps up in the playoffs but he's still a very good 4th liner basically.

He's currently on Tampa's PP2, and has been inconsistently used on the powerplay in the past. I wouldn't have him as a primary option, but if/when the powerplay stalls, he's a guy you could switch in there as a mid-series shake-up to change the dynamic of PP2.

 

[Jags]

It's amazing how the concept of players performing differently in different years under different systems/teams/coaches/injuries/etc eludes you.

This is a fair point, but you were doing the same exact thing just yesterday, talking about years-old Caps "trends" that spread across inferior management, coaching, and personnel, very little of which is relevant today.

Pick a lane.

 

[Jags]

I'm not expecting Wilson to be anything more than a disappointment in the playoffs because that is what he has been, historically.

Historically? He's 22 years old.

These points you're making about not being able to rely on our young guys in the postseason...? They're all better than they were. I don't see that any of them have regressed. I was as disappointed and irritated by the lot of them as anyone last year, but each and every one of them has taken pretty serious steps forward.

Back them up, sure. To whatever extent we can afford to put talent behind them in the lineup, we should. But as of right now, I'm not eager to replace any of them.

You've keyed on "Wilson and Winnik" as expendables, and I think it's a fundamental misunderstanding of the value of our 4th line. It's not just that they've been scoring some. They've been pretty consistently tilting the ice, playing in the offensive zone, physically punishing and disrupting the opposition. That they've figured out how to turn that energy into savvy scoring chances is icing on the cake, and so is the vital value all three of them have on our PK.

I'm not saying they're untouchable or that we should stand pat, but at some point you have to let go of the past and embrace the things that have improved. Not just during this streak, but on the whole.

I'm not opposed to making a move, but I think posters here tend to be a little too hung up on the negativity of the past...