Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXVIII (It's Working! Let's Fix It.)

[Carlzner]

Wilson is probably like the 7th most important penalty killer on the team. Holtby, all 4 regular PKing defensemen (Niskanen, Alzner, Carlson, Orpik), Beagle, and Eller are all more vital to that unit than Wilson. His important has been vastly overstated in an attempt to justify his position on the roster because he is a fan favorite. It'd be like saying Justin Williams or Matt Niskanen is irreplaceable on the PP. Someone can take over his PKing role. Williams, Backstrom, and Oshie could all pitch in a bit more on the PK and probably do a good enough job to replace Wilson if it came to it.

Decent wingers like Parenteau, Stempniak, Hudler, etc. have gone for 2nd thru 4th round picks recently (i.e. picks that usually amount to nothing). Sure, some players like Andrew Ladd cost too much and I wouldn't recommend paying that price for someone of his quality, but there are usually good buys to be made at wing. Unfortunately I can't really identify a ton of them now because who knows what teams will end up being sellers, but players like Parenteau, Versteeg, Hudler, Hanssen, Vrbata would all be upgrades over Wilson and Winnik IMO and none of them carry a huge cap hit or term.

Giving one of those three players Wilson's PK minutes means they're getting probably around 2 more minutes of play during a game, or they're getting less ES time. Either way, their energy is being wasted on the PK and their ES play will be noticeably affected by it.

Seeing how they're three of our top offensive players who are all rolling right now... does that really make much sense?

 

[BobRouse]

The likelihood of that is extremely thin. It's Vrana and no one else realistically.

If there's a concern at this point for me it's that the top of the roster isn't consistently dominant, or at the very least they don't tend to have great motors across the board. Ovechkin is their worst two-way player and has routinely been their worst possession top sixer. Can they win with that dynamic in place 5-on-5? They also lack a truly dominant #1D. Niskanen has been mostly very good but how much better can he get in the playoffs? It's lingering questions of just how much prominent players can elevate their game further that creates the anxiety and motivation behind further stacking the roster IMO. We're also not far removed from last year when PIT's bottom six outplayed WSH's and largely determined the outcome. Relying on depth alone won't result in a deep run but you better believe teams that go all the way get that level of performance at key moments to make a difference.

They very likely won't upgrade over Wilson, in part due to his legs, physicality and PK ability. Connolly may be earning his way toward the third line sticking. But at the right value they should still seek to add quality depth. An add pushes the rest and gives insurance beyond Vrana. It also removes one thing they can look back on and regret not doing. You never know what injuries can happen. It's reasonable to want to upgrade over Ness at 7/8D. It's also reasonable to try to upgrade over Vrana for scoring-line reserve winger at the right price. One injury shouldn't lead to them relying on a rookie in a scoring line role. Neither upgrade should necessarily break the bank. It doesn't need to be Vanek...just someone with skill that can still play and keep up.

And how do you suggest we do this with almost zero cap space?

How do we add "depth" when we have to move someone else out in order to bring another in??

We probably have enough room to get ONE cheapish player contract wise. You really want that to be a forward???

Its obvious we need a better 7D than Chorney

 

[g00n]

Isn't that exactly what undoing bad roster moves entails?

With no guarantees, should they just not try?

Who cares what everyone else has or doesn't have? To steal from what a wise man once said, there are no guarantees anyone will have the same team when the playoffs come around.

Once you remove a player from the locker room via trade do you ever put him back in that locker room a few games later? No. But you can change your system and/or mental approach in minutes. MUCH more flexible and when you have a roster that's shown it can produce, much more likely to give you results than rolling the dice and shaking up the lineup.

You have to look around the league. Teams do it all the time. Good GMs know exactly where other squads stand in terms of depth, prospects, etc. In a CAPPED LEAGUE you must know this because that's the defining aspect of the competition among the GMs. It determines player value and cost, and how you construct your squad. If most everyone else is built a certain way you try to find an edge, sure, but you also become aware that nobody is icing an All Star team, either.

So again, is anyone going into the playoffs with essentially an All Star team? Have any of the recent Cup winning teams done that? No. Many of the players we now respect made their reputations by stepping up in the playoffs.

In a capped league it has been shown over and over that getting value over contracts is the way to win. The Hawks may have gamed the system for a few years at that, but in general pretty much every Cup winner in the Ovechkin era has probably had more players step up and perform beyond previous levels than they've had key TDL acquisitions carry them to victory.

 

[twabby]

Giving one of those three players Wilson's PK minutes means they're getting probably around 2 more minutes of play during a game, or they're getting less ES time. Either way, their energy is being wasted on the PK and their ES play will be noticeably affected by it.

Seeing how they're three of our top offensive players who are all rolling right now... does that really make much sense?

Wilson skates a little more than 2 minutes per game on the PK on average. Spreading those 2 minutes out over a few other players shouldn't be that taxing.

I'd venture a guess and say that the production of Williams/Backstrom/Oshie/a good TDL pickup at even strength would still be much greater than Wilson's even strength production even if those three are a little more tired from taking on some more PKing duties.

 

[Langway]

And how do you suggest we do this with almost zero cap space?

How do we add "depth" when we have to move someone else out in order to bring another in??

We probably have enough room to get ONE cheapish player contract wise. You really want that to be a forward???

Its obvious we need a better 7D than Chorney

CapFriendly says they're on track to be able to add ~$4.34M in cap hits at the deadline. That will dip some depending on recalls between now and then but they should have the flexibility to add both, perhaps with some retention involved. I'm not sure they target someone as costly as Vanek with the way Connolly is playing lately but something like Parenteau and Quincey could be adequate depth adds. For as much as something like that would resemble their other boring, mediocre deadline adds I'm not sure they have the willingness to do anything more significant (or, more importantly, see the need for it).

 

[trick9]

Wilson skates a little more than 2 minutes per game on the PK on average. Spreading those 2 minutes out over a few other players shouldn't be that taxing.

I'd venture a guess and say that the production of Williams/Backstrom/Oshie/a good TDL pickup at even strength would still be much greater than Wilson's even strength production even if those three are a little more tired from taking on some more PKing duties.

Every good PK unit in the NHL works with certain forward units. You need good chemistry and awareness on the PK just like you need on the PP. Throwing guys to the wolves mid-season and constantly changing the forward pairings is one way to ruin your good PK unit. Wilson's long reach is also a big advantage to them as they are trying to stay aggressive at all times.

Besides, i rather have Wilson out there blocking shots than Backstrom. Not to even mention about TJ Oshie who is already banged up and had several injury problems in his career already. Wilson had a few game stretch just recently when he was limping back to the bench after a big block in every game.

 

[twabby]

Every good PK unit in the NHL works with certain forward units. You need good chemistry and awareness on the PK just like you need on the PP. Throwing guys to the wolves mid-season and constantly changing the forward pairings is one way to ruin your good PK unit. Wilson's long reach is also a big advantage to them as they are trying to stay aggressive at all times.

Besides, i rather have Wilson out there blocking shots than Backstrom. Not to even mention about TJ Oshie who is already banged up and had several injury problems in his career already. Wilson had a few game stretch just recently when he was limping back to the bench after a big block in every game.

I'd guess that PKing is probably the most interchangable of all three units, especially at forward. It's more about positioning and effort rather than chemistry and knowing where the other forward is going to be. You're not looking to make tons of incisive passes and generating offense, just to be disruptive and clear the puck, for the most part.

I understand not wanting to have your best forwards out there blocking shots, but I also want as many good forwards at even strength as possible. Wilson, for the most part, has been a complete non-factor at even strength for his entire career (recent hot streak aside). I think I'd rather improve on the depth at even strength even at the risk of putting a skilled player on the PK and getting injured.

 

[Hivemind]

The line-up had enough PKers to function while Daniel Winnik was healthy scratched.

 

[EroCaps]

Define "improve themselves". Does a depth winger or 7th dman make you 100% confident? Are you advocating a big splash move? Who do you trade away, then?

I don't think anyone is confident about the playoffs yet. We're debating whether or not making moves is more prudent than standing pat and trying to get the best out of the current roster.

The "splash" move would be an impact forward with leadership ability like Landeskog---and I'd be more than willing to deal some combination of Mojo, Bura, Vrana, a 1st, Johansen, Bowey, whatever.

I'm far from sold on Connelly, Burakovsky, Mojo, Wilson, etc as playoff warriors.

 

[Hivemind]

And how do you suggest we do this with almost zero cap space?

How do we add "depth" when we have to move someone else out in order to bring another in??

We probably have enough room to get ONE cheapish player contract wise. You really want that to be a forward???

Its obvious we need a better 7D than Chorney

Cap Friendly currently projects the Capitals to have $4,343,733 in available cap space at the trade deadline. More than enough to fit a forward AND a #7D. Especially if that forward is cheap (like Vanek) and/or the other team retains a portion of the salary.

 

[Blades of Steel]

Cap Friendly currently projects the Capitals to have $4,343,733 in available cap space at the trade deadline. More than enough to fit a forward AND a #7D. Especially if that forward is cheap (like Vanek) and/or the other team retains a portion of the salary.

we have this discussion every year but I always forget, are we currently banking Cap space while Carlson is out hurt? Did we bank some salary when oshie missed a game or two?

 

[g00n]

Cap Friendly currently projects the Capitals to have $4,343,733 in available cap space at the trade deadline. More than enough to fit a forward AND a #7D. Especially if that forward is cheap (like Vanek) and/or the other team retains a portion of the salary.

So wait, then the $500K gift to Wilson is NOT putting the team in cap hell?

 

[895]

we have this discussion every year but I always forget, are we currently banking Cap space while Carlson is out hurt? Did we bank some salary when oshie missed a game or two?

No. LTIR exemptions are never 'banked'.

 

[Hivemind]

So wait, then the $500K gift to Wilson is NOT putting the team in cap hell?

That $500K would have made a huge difference, and would have allowed them to actually carry 13F. That cap number decreases if they, you know, carry a full compliment of forwards.

But, go on, keep defending them overpaying your favorite 4th liner.

 

[Blades of Steel]

No. LTIR exemptions are never 'banked'.

thanks

 

[Stewie G]

So wait, then the $500K gift to Wilson is NOT putting the team in cap hell?

If not for the amazing run of luck regarding health, it very well might have. They've had to run with a roster less than the max, with almost no room to allow the type of call-ups that would allow them to test out guys from Hershey. Just because it has worked out so far doesn't mean it wasn't a bad move.

 

[Hivemind]

A few other rental forwards that may be worth exploring in the trade market:
Alexandre Burrows - $4.5M cap hit (Vancouver would need to retain, obviously). Fast, 2-way player who can potentially fit anywhere in the line-up. Kills penalties. Somewhat like a Jason Chimera replacement, but with better possession metrics.

Patrick Eaves - $1M cap hit. If Dallas falls out of the playoff hunt and decides to sell, he's likely to be one of the guys they try to sell high on. Having a really solid season as the 3rd wheel on the Benn line. Not going to drive play himself, but would be a good option to fill in should someone like Oshie, Johansson, or Williams get hurt. Isn't killing penalties this year, but he has in the past. Also provides powerplay depth behind Oshie/Williams.

 

[Stewie G]

Once you remove a player from the locker room via trade do you ever put him back in that locker room a few games later? No. But you can change your system and/or mental approach in minutes. MUCH more flexible and when you have a roster that's shown it can produce, much more likely to give you results than rolling the dice and shaking up the lineup.

You have to look around the league. Teams do it all the time. Good GMs know exactly where other squads stand in terms of depth, prospects, etc. In a CAPPED LEAGUE you must know this because that's the defining aspect of the competition among the GMs. It determines player value and cost, and how you construct your squad. If most everyone else is built a certain way you try to find an edge, sure, but you also become aware that nobody is icing an All Star team, either.

So again, is anyone going into the playoffs with essentially an All Star team? Have any of the recent Cup winning teams done that? No. Many of the players we now respect made their reputations by stepping up in the playoffs.

In a capped league it has been shown over and over that getting value over contracts is the way to win. The Hawks may have gamed the system for a few years at that, but in general pretty much every Cup winner in the Ovechkin era has probably had more players step up and perform beyond previous levels than they've had key TDL acquisitions carry them to victory.

That is not what it seemed like the post I quoted was referring to regarding undoing bad roster moves. Seems like some backtracking going on. If they can change their mental approach in minutes, that should blow all of the talk about carrying around the baggage of teams past out of the water. Why didn't anyone think of that until now?

Who said anything about an All-Star team? You don't have to try to compile an All-Star team, just the best team they can reasonably put together. I said it shouldn't matter what the Jones are up to because there are NO GUARANTEES what the rosters will look like come spring. I bet people weren't looking at the Kings as a measuring stick when they picked up Gaborik a couple years ago. Guess what? Turns out they added the best goal scorer that spring and won the Cup.

I don't think anyone is expecting them to pick up a guy(s) to "carry them to victory." They need guys to pick up the slack in case of injuries/slumps. To chip in a couple goals when the big guns go cold. As of now, they really don't have anyone, outside of Vrana, who could possibly fill that role. (mod)

 

[trick9]

I'd guess that PKing is probably the most interchangable of all three units, especially at forward. It's more about positioning and effort rather than chemistry and knowing where the other forward is going to be. You're not looking to make tons of incisive passes and generating offense, just to be disruptive and clear the puck, for the most part.

I understand not wanting to have your best forwards out there blocking shots, but I also want as many good forwards at even strength as possible. Wilson, for the most part, has been a complete non-factor at even strength for his entire career (recent hot streak aside). I think I'd rather improve on the depth at even strength even at the risk of putting a skilled player on the PK and getting injured.

Effort really isn't a main thing on the PK. Pretty much every PK player in the NHL display adequate effort while on the PK, but it's mainly about positioning, stick positioning and covering the lanes for a forward. If you stop playing as a unit and just try to stay aggressive most teams will burn you within seconds.

Chemistry is just as important defensively as it is offensively. Just because you aren't trying to generate offense or incisive passing it's very important to know where your teammates are and who they are covering at all times.

Wilson gets banged up alot on the PK and Winnik already lost part of his ear this season blocking a shot. If you ask me i'll rather stick with the current set-up rather than risking injury-prone guy like Oshie on the PK just because i want to move Wilson's 10 ES minutes to P-A Parenteau on the 4th line.

The line-up had enough PKers to function while Daniel Winnik was healthy scratched.

That stretch was about just as long as Wilson's current hot streak.

 

[Hivemind]

That stretch was about just as long as Wilson's current hot streak.

Winnik has been scratched 10 games already this season. Eller also missed one. Oshie (who's already killing penalties despite your gripes) missed 8.

This team can survive with one fewer PKer in the line-up. The PK won't suddenly implode.

 

[Revelation]

Shame we didn't take a chance on Grabner. The way he's playing right now he'd be an absolutely unreal addition. Top 5 in goals in the NHL with no PP time. Pretty sure everyone else in the top 100 gets at least 2 minutes. Just blazing speed and raw even strength/shorthanded production. Absolute monster on the PK for the Rangers. Generates his own offense so you can just slot him next to Beagle or Eller and have him rain down breakaways and pot a goal every other game.

If they were looking to sell I'd pay a stupid price for him haha.

 

[BobRouse]

Shame we didn't take a chance on Grabner. The way he's playing right now he'd be an absolutely unreal addition. Top 5 in goals in the NHL with no PP time. Just blazing speed and raw even strength/shorthanded production. Absolute monster on the PK for the Rangers. Generates his own offense so you can just slot him next to Beagle or Eller and have him rain down breakaways and pot a goal every other game.

If they were looking to sell I'd sell the farm for him haha.

That's why we'd be a lottery team with Revelation at the helm!

Grabner relies on space. In the playoffs he bombs in splendid fashion. He has 2 goals in 17 games.

I believe it got so bad that he was a healthy scratch against us when last we met the Isles in the playoffs and in the games he did play "invisible" would be a generous way to describe him.

Prior to this year its been 5 years since he hit the 20 goal mark.

He is shooting at nearly 22% which is WAY above his career average (around 10% higher)

 

[trick9]

Winnik has been scratched 10 games already this season. Eller also missed one. Oshie (who's already killing penalties despite your gripes) missed 8.

This team can survive with one fewer PKer in the line-up. The PK won't suddenly implode.

Once against Playoff team. That was CBJ/PIT back-to-back game.

Either way, i'll play along. Who takes that PK'er spot?

 

[Revelation]

That's why we'd be a lottery team with Revelation at the helm!

Grabner relies on space. In the playoffs he bombs in splendid fashion. He has 2 goals in 17 games.

I believe it got so bad that he was a healthy scratch against us when last we met the Isles in the playoffs and in the games he did play "invisible" would be a generous way to describe him.

Prior to this year its been 5 years since he hit the 20 goal mark.

He is shooting at nearly 22% which is WAY above his career average (around 10% higher)

Yeah he's really been dragging the Rangers down into the cellar.

It's amazing how the concept of players performing differently in different years under different systems/teams/coaches/injuries/etc eludes you.

Fastest player in the league can't create his own space... k. Speed from other teams utterly dismembered our lumbering ***** in our last 2 playoff exits... guess we can pretend that didn't happen either.

 

[Hivemind]

Once against Playoff team. That was CBJ/PIT back-to-back game.

Either way, i'll play along. Who takes that PK'er spot?

They've generally split the time among guys who are already killing penalties. If you prefer a 1:1 swap for your game, I'd nominate Johansson, personally.