Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXVIII (It's Working! Let's Fix It.)

[g00n]

Are we really evaluating players off of hypothetical scenarios that posters are imagining?

Seems like a lot of that is going on.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

If you think Alzner has 0 of those in a game I don't know what team you've been watching.

Here's another number - 1 - as in it takes one offensive chance in a tight as balls playoff game not being converted or taken advantage of to lose said playoff game.

When you shoulder a heavy load against the other teams best each night, they're bound to score sometimes. Give Alzner beachblanket matchups and he might not be on for an even strength goal against all season!

 

[Revelation]

When you shoulder a heavy load against the other teams best each night, they're bound to score sometimes. Give Alzner beachblanket matchups and he might not be on for an even strength goal against all season!

That's a great way to deflect any criticism of bad play lol

Give Alzner beachblanket matchups and tell him to skate the puck up and generate goals for the team and you might see a lot more pizzas than usual

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Lets say its a 1-1 game. Goalies are hot. And Orlov decides he wants to "create" some offense, and turns it over. That's another thing. Orlov cracks under pressure. You chase after him with high tempo, and he will crack. He will hold the puck till the last second and will turn it over. Especially when he against the boards. So going back he takes the puck up the zone, turns it over, leaving Nisky with the 2-1. Scores.

Let's be fair, historically he has, but we have to give him another crack at stepping up in the playoffs to fairly evaluate where this team has to go in the offseason.

They've partnered him with arguably the best D the Caps have this year, they shelter him properly, maybe they can find a way to make it work in the playoffs?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

That's a great way to deflect any criticism of bad play lol

Give Alzner beachblanket matchups and tell him to skate the puck up and generate goals for the team and you might see a lot more pizzas than usual

Or it's being realistic. This team doesn't need Alzner to raise his offensive game to succeed, not when he's shouldering the heaviest competition pretty well each night on the scoresheet.

 

[Revelation]

Or it's being realistic. This team doesn't need Alzner to raise his offensive game to succeed, not when he's shouldering the heaviest competition pretty well each night on the scoresheet.

It's not. If you're given easier matchups you're expected to produce offensively. At least if your team is expected to go somewhere. There's 5-6 D in the NHL at any given moment that can produce offensively at even strength while getting the toughest matchups. Yandle, Shattenkirk, Burns have been sheltered historically yet their teams lived and died with what they could provide offensively.

If Alzner was that amazing there'd be no explanation for Orlov-Niskanen being more effective than Alzner-Niskanen.

They may not need Alzner, and I agree that he's a good player (though a bit overrated honestly) and has a role on the team, but the point is they need SOMEBODY or the team gets wrecked no matter how good defensively he is.

 

[PB12]

Let's be fair, historically he has, but we have to give him another crack at stepping up in the playoffs to fairly evaluate where this team has to go in the offseason.

They've partnered him with arguably the best D the Caps have this year, they shelter him properly, maybe they can find a way to make it work in the playoffs?

Oh i agree. At the same time he can't stay on offense too long. He has to get back. I remember against the Pens game 3 of the season this season, there were 2 Caps and 2 Pens along the boards in the Pens zone on the left side. And there is Orlov who is on the left, waiting for to slide accross the boards to him like he was thinking about creating chance. Nope. Instead it goes to a Pen, who creates a 2 on 1 with Nisky having to dive to block the pass. Thats what i'm talking about.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

It's not. If you're given easier matchups you're expected to produce offensively. At least if your team is expected to go somewhere. There's 5-6 D in the NHL at any given moment that can produce offensively at even strength while getting the toughest matchups. Yandle, Shattenkirk, Burns have been sheltered historically yet their teams lived and died with what they could provide offensively.

If Alzner was that amazing there'd be no explanation for Orlov-Niskanen being more effective than Alzner-Niskanen.

They may not need Alzner, and I agree that he's a good player (though a bit overrated honestly) and has a role on the team, but the point is they need SOMEBODY or the team gets wrecked no matter how good defensively he is.

More effective, against lesser opposition in sheltered minutes, largely even strength only because there's limited trust in other situations in ORLOV.

Remind me how many Cups do Yandle, Shattenkirk and Burns have again? Now remind me how many guys like Mitchell, Regehr, Hjalmarsson, McQuaid, Orpik, Beauchamin, O'Donnell have. There's a significant need for the DEFENSE Alzner brings. Look what happened last season when he went down. House of cards collapsed.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Oh i agree. At the same time he can't stay on offense too long. He has to get back. I remember against the Pens game 3 of the season this season, there were 2 Caps and 2 Pens along the boards in the Pens zone on the left side. And there is Orlov who is on the left, waiting for to slide accross the boards to him like he was thinking about creating chance. Nope. Instead it goes to a Pen, who creates a 2 on 1 with Nisky having to dive to block the pass. Thats what i'm talking about.

He's got to get smarter and make better decisions, there's no doubt.

 

[Revelation]

More effective, against lesser opposition in sheltered minutes, largely even strength only because there's limited trust in other situations in ORLOV.

Remind me how many Cups do Yandle, Shattenkirk and Burns have again? Now remind me how many guys like Mitchell, Regehr, Hjalmarsson, McQuaid, Orpik, Beauchamin, O'Donnell have. There's a significant need for the DEFENSE Alzner brings. Look what happened last season when he went down. House of cards collapsed.

I suppose Jay Beagle is the most valuable player on our team since Kris Draper has 4 cups, followed by our very own Claude Lemieux in Tom Wilson

Weird how none of the guys you mentioned were ever top pairing defensemen for their teams. Holy crap, imagine if we had

Mitchell-Regehr
Orpik-Beauchemin
O'Donnell-McQuaid

All the cups would be ours

Looking back at their teams, I can't help but notice that they also had guys like Doughty, Keith, Campbell, Voynov, Martinez, Niedermayer, Gonchar, Letang, all of whom would skate the puck coast coast every chance they get, and many of whom weren't defensive rocks at the time their teams won the cup (Campbell/Voynov/Martinez/Letang). Boston is pretty much the only team that didn't skate the puck much and they still ponied up for Kaberle at the deadline and needed Tim Thomas to pull off the best goaltending performance in about 10 years.

Alzner is valuable in the same way all those D were - as in he still needs better D with damn fine offensive capabilities surrounding him for the team to be successful.

You need guys that can skate the puck through the neutral zone and blast dangerous shots from the point to be successful. That's just a fact sadly. Everything else has been made obsolete by the NHL coaching arms race.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Ahh the comic routine continues. This place does need some humor at times I'll give you that.

 

[Revelation]

This place is already a joke, I'm just trying to make it a funnier one

 

[Calicaps]

I suppose Jay Beagle is the most valuable player on our team since Kris Draper has 4 cups, followed by our very own Claude Lemieux in Tom Wilson

Weird how none of the guys you mentioned were ever top pairing defensemen for their teams. Holy crap, imagine if we had

Mitchell-Regehr
Orpik-Beauchemin
O'Donnell-McQuaid

All the cups would be ours

Looking back at their teams, I can't help but notice that they also had guys like Doughty, Keith, Campbell, Voynov, Martinez, Niedermayer, Gonchar, Letang, all of whom would skate the puck coast coast every chance they get, and many of whom weren't defensive rocks at the time their teams won the cup (Campbell/Voynov/Martinez/Letang). Boston is pretty much the only team that didn't skate the puck much and they still ponied up for Kaberle at the deadline and needed Tim Thomas to pull off the best goaltending performance in about 10 years.

Alzner is valuable in the same way all those D were - as in he still needs better D with damn fine offensive capabilities surrounding him for the team to be successful.

You need guys that can skate the puck through the neutral zone and blast dangerous shots from the point to be successful. That's just a fact sadly. Everything else has been made obsolete by the NHL coaching arms race.

Speaking of deflecting...

No one is saying you need 3 pairs of pure defensive defensemen. We're saying you need one or two. Alzner fills a need, both in the regular season and the playoffs. Orlov might too IF he can continue to improve his decision making AND translate that to the post-season. Why is that so hard to understand?

And FWIW, Beagle may not be the most important player on this team, but I bet if you polled the dressing room, he'd get a lot of votes.

 

[Revelation]

Speaking of deflecting...

No one is saying you need 3 pairs of pure defensive defensemen. We're saying you need one or two. Alzner fills a need, both in the regular season and the playoffs. Orlov might too IF he can continue to improve his decision making AND translate that to the post-season. Why is that so hard to understand?

And FWIW, Beagle may not be the most important player on this team, but I bet if you polled the dressing room, he'd get a lot of votes.

How am I deflecting? He listed a bunch of #4s for cup winners. I merely pointed out that they all had PMDs playing higher up contributing more significantly. It's literally the opposite of a deflection

They have Orpik, Schmidt, Niskanen and Carlson that all do what Alzner does to a degree. They have pretty much no one except Orlov willing to regularly skate the puck up the ice and do offensive playmaken. Schmidt has slowly started doing it but he's not particularly creative nor does he have a great shot. Niskanen can (it's his responsibility when playing with Alzner) but he doesn't like to, Carlson is too slow, he usually passes it up then gets to the offensive zone in time for a blueline slapper.

All of the last cup winners relied enormously on guys skating the puck up and zigzagging through the offensive zone. Every freaking defenseman on the Hawks does it, even their "shutdown guy" Hjarmalsson. There was a guy on every pairing for the Pens who did it last year. Doughty always does it for the Kings, as did Voynov/Martinez whenever they could (Martinez scored 2 golden goals for them being up high). And all of them have turnovers (especially Letang who is a turnover machine) because if it was possible to skate the puck up without them everyone would do it. But the reward outweighs the risk and they all have cups.

Orlov fills a role that is pivotal for EVERY cup winner that we have NO other replacement for. Why is that so hard to understand? We saw firsthand how limited the run and gun caps were when no defensemen other than lackadaisical Mike Green could make any offensive play to save their life.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

D. Orlov #9, The key to the Stanley Cup.

 

[Raikkonen]

This has to stop somehow. Adstats guys hijacking this thread again.

On the topic. I bet Alzner is not 100% after last year's injury, YET, and I bet he's not firing on all cylinders. He will be better in playoffs, and we know he has done it before.

Orlov, while still fighting for his Washington Capital spot, didn't win anything yet. Progressed but didn't achieve his goals.

One is known commodity, a defensive expert 24/7, another is promising guy with warts. Nothing changed yet. Can we not talk about it every ****ing day?

 

[Pigskin]

how about we give our first to LV and they take Orpik

then we trade Grubi to St Louis for their first ... he could go well there, a good gig with a decent defense in front of him and they want a goalie like him who is cost controlled/cheap because they aren't gonna be able to get rid of Allen and that becomes their tandem

we upgrade our first slightly and don't lose anybody we really want to keep to LV

everybody wins

EDIT: Respect to Orpik who is playing great right now

 

[Stewie G]

This has to stop somehow. Adstats guys hijacking this thread again.

On the topic. I bet Alzner is not 100% after last year's injury, YET, and I bet he's not firing on all cylinders. He will be better in playoffs, and we know he has done it before.

Orlov, while still fighting for his Washington Capital spot, didn't win anything yet. Progressed but didn't achieve his goals.

One is known commodity, a defensive expert 24/7, another is promising guy with warts. Nothing changed yet. Can we not talk about it every ****ing day?

This is not "adstats", this is more of a philosophical debate. The battle has been going on around the league and it's clear which way things are headed in general. The Caps seem to be leaning a particular direction right now. We'll see what happens moving forward and into the playoffs.

 

[Stewie G]

I'm just confused as to why people refuse to look at things in the aggregate. If defensemen need to focus on defense first, second, and third, why not just have all of your forwards cherry pick the entire game? I mean, it's their job to score goals since they're forwards, right? That is just as silly as applying a one-sided approach to evaluating defensemen.

 

[BobRouse]

Lets see...we are leading the league in points (and really haven't played our A game for much of the season)

Our PP is middling (altho trending well) and we don't seem to get many opportunities despite being a top 5 possession team.

On the broadcast last night Joe B. mentioned that we have gotten the most goals from our bottom 6 than any other team in the league.

Our 3rd line (whom people seem to want to mess with) has a score adjusted corsi close to 60%

We have about 100pts from our D which is up among the top of the league.

Our Vezina winning goalie is having a BETTER year than last year and our backup could be a starter on many teams in the league.

We have very little cap space and very few young assets at our disposal.

Outside of getting cheap D depth I can't see us doing anything that would mess with chemistry.

Ever since Connolly joined that Eller line (also Winnik getting a regular jersey) the Caps have taken off. Why would anyone want to mess with this?

 

[RandyHolt]

I think Revelation brings up valid points. Love for Alzner will not cease of course, as he is a very likeable guy that won't make "the big mistake"; well other than saying we can't get motivated to play a loser team. So his defenders will not back down... perhaps until they hear his contract demands. He took a hometown discount last time, and think that may bite us big time.

In our glide to the finish line, I would like to see our great defensive minded coaches, coach up Alzner to try to be more aggressive offensively; try and knead some dough. It may be too late to change who he is, but he seems very coachable.

The game has changed and is still changing. The defensive defensemen are slowly evolving out of the game for more of a 2 way player. George was all about the PMD, he was just a bit early to the party, pal.

There is so little scoring, everyone is "stopping shots". I call it big goalie disease. So a premium no longer needs to be put on a guy to prevent goals as the game itself is very low scoring as is. Especially in the playoffs when the games get tight.

Who are the heros in the playoffs? The goalie, or the guy that scores. Doesn't that say anything about the value of D only guys? Heck even the 3rd/4th liners are expected to score.

 

[Stewie G]

Nothing you said is wrong. If you could guarantee that no one would get injured or slump or have the bounces start going the other way, then sure, carry on. I think the people advocating for a move are not comfortable relying on this run of play to continue all the way til June.

Who could have seen the tremendous drop off from Kuz coming at this point last year? Would having someone like a Vanek help mitigate that problem if it happened again this year?

The Pens ran through a ton of players last year out of sheer necessity, but it paid off in the long run as they were able to identify who able to keep up in the NHL. Why not be proactive (which many have accused the Caps of not doing in years past) and see what shakes out?

 

[BobRouse]

Nothing you said is wrong. If you could guarantee that no one would get injured or slump or have the bounces start going the other way, then sure, carry on. I think the people advocating for a move are not comfortable relying on this run of play to continue all the way til June.

Who could have seen the tremendous drop off from Kuz coming at this point last year? Would having someone like a Vanek help mitigate that problem if it happened again this year?

The Pens ran through a ton of players last year out of sheer necessity, but it paid off in the long run as they were able to identify who able to keep up in the NHL. Why not be proactive (which many have accused the Caps of not doing in years past) and see what shakes out?

But what if we don't have injuries? You bring Vanek in and sit him in the press box?

You break up our dominating 3rd line where Bura and Connolly are generating and producing?

You put Vanek on the 4th line?

What kind of message are you sending to players who are performing excellently by sitting them?

We have a goose laying golden eggs. I don't think its proactive to cut him open in search of something better.

 

[Stewie G]

But what if we don't have injuries? You bring Vanek in and sit him in the press box?

You break up our dominating 3rd line where Bura and Connolly are generating and producing?

You put Vanek on the 4th line?

What kind of message are you sending to players who are performing excellently by sitting them?

We have a goose laying golden eggs. I don't think its proactive to cut him open in search of something better.

BUT WHAT IF YOU DO??@!? Geez. It's not a giant mental leap to consider the potential for an injury to a top 6 player at some point from March through hopefully June or a potential Kuz-like slump from a top 6er. It happened just last year.

 

[BobRouse]

BUT WHAT IF YOU DO??@!? Geez. It's not a giant mental leap to consider the potential for an injury to a top 6 player at some point from March through hopefully June or a potential Kuz-like slump from a top 6er. It happened just last year.

If you have one by the deadline, and its lingering type or long term, then you make a move.

You don't spend a ton of assets on a need you MAY potentially have.

Why not get another #1 goalie while we are at it? If Holtby goes down then Grubauer is unproven to a large extent.

May as well