Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXVIII (It's Working! Let's Fix It.)

[RandyHolt]

The problem with injuries... coaches just keep using the broken player.

It has not been discussed here, but Alzner finally bowing out mid game, led me to question why was he even out there. That was a HUGE factor in that game and thus the series. We had changed tactics/lines and won game 5. It was obvious Alzner was slowed in the games before that, missing practices etc. Save the 'we had no one better' arguments. We have seen kids called up do just fine playing on adrenaline. Including Alzner himself, in his first playoff game.

One my biggest complaints of Bruce in the playoffs, pretending Mike Green could shoot. Not easing his minutes, not even taking him off the PP, even though he couldn't and wouldn't shoot. Pots and Juice actually scored goals in that series, and both had PP experience. Nope. He pushed all in on Green and it failed miserably. Watch the vid I made of Varly getting XC'd in the head. He can be seen pushing Kunitz feebly, with one arm.

Rant complete, depth usage is as big a problem as depth itself.

 

[Roughing]

Don't touch it.

If it fails again we'll have ample opportunities for big changes this offseason.

 

[Hivemind]

On the broadcast last night Joe B. mentioned that we have gotten the most goals from our bottom 6 than any other team in the league.

I'd like to see Joe B's math on this one. Columbus currently has a bottom six consisting of Gagner (14), Hartnell (11), Anderson (10), Jenner (9), Karlsson (6), and Sedlak (5) for a total of 55 goals from their bottom six. There's been some swapping between Jenner, Anderson, and Calvert (5), so depending on which configuration you chose you can drop that number down to 50 goals. Either way, that's significantly more production than the 40 goals our bottom six has put up.

If we adjust to 5-on-5 only, it's still a 42-33 advantage for Columbus.

 

[g00n]

You can undo a bad mindset or system. You can't undo bad roster moves. You can only make more moves to get back something similar to what you lost and maybe try to improve from there.

That's the cost of tinkering for the sake of "no guarantees". There are NEVER any guarantees. You never know what kind of oddball injuries will pop up on your team OR OTHERS.

And that's something we should look at before we make any changes: what kind of depth do other teams really have? Are the top teams in the league 8 and 9 solid NHLers deep on the blueline? Do they all have 12 forwards who can score like All Stars?

Or are they also fighting the cap and hoping to get some value out of some AHLers, journeymen, vets, etc?


The Pens won last year because guys you didn't expect to produce produced, and eventually their stars did, too. It was not just because they made a few trades when they sucked.

 

[Stewie G]

If you have one by the deadline, and its lingering type or long term, then you make a move.

You don't spend a ton of assets on a need you MAY potentially have.

Why not get another #1 goalie while we are at it? If Holtby goes down then Grubauer is unproven to a large extent.

May as well

They DID just have this exact problem. Last year. It JUST HAPPENED. The Caps relied on an ice-cold 2C, and watched as one of the Pens' in-season pickups went 3-4-7 against them, including a GWG and what amounted to the GTG in the season-ending G6.

You don't get a #1 goalie because they have one of the best backup in the league, and because assets and cap space aren't unlimited.

 

[BobRouse]

The Pens won last year because guys you didn't expect to produce produced, and eventually their stars did, too. It was not just because they made a few trades when they sucked.

Very true. Also career journeymen/average D like Lovejoy and Daley played the best hockey of their lives at the same time when a guy like Bonino played his best.

In hockey you really have to have this kind of stuff happen (recall "DRUCE ON THE LOOSE"...he singlehandedly seemingly beat the Rangers that season)

That year injuries derailed us (bad luck..Hatcher, Dino, Beaupre and Stevens playing with one arm)

We had Liut but there really were no trades that could have compensated for loving the other 3 guys. Its just tough luck.

They DID just have this exact problem. Last year. It JUST HAPPENED. The Caps relied on an ice-cold 2C, and watched as one of the Pens' in-season pickups went 3-4-7 against them, including a GWG and what amounted to the GTG in the season-ending G6.
.

So we should get another #2 center on the level of Kuznetsov and shelve him just in case Kuz goes cold?

Kuznetsov's line drove possession and just lacked finish.

Our top 6 dominated Pitts top 6. Ovechkin alone outscored both Malkin and Croz.

We lost because our 3rd and 4th lines got eviscerated.

We addressed our bottom 6 this offseason so that doesn't happen again.

 

[twabby]

Is everyone really so impressed with Tom Wilson's game that they wouldn't welcome an upgrade? Tom Wilson has 2 points in 28 playoff games. Same with Daniel Winnik, who has 3 points in 45 playoff games.

The 4th line has scored some goals recently, but who remembers the "best third line in hockey" last season? Chimera-Johansson-Wilson was considered untouchable by many here due to their insane chemistry for a few weeks during the regular season (with some pretty terrible underlying stats mind you). How did that work out in the playoffs? People talk about Kuznetsov going cold with good reason, but so did those three (3 combined points in 6 games against Pittsburgh).

Are we really counting on Brett Connolly to be a difference-maker in the playoffs? Same with Johansson, whose only real playoff moments were one game against the Rangers in 2011 and the series against the Flyers (most on the PP). And Burakovsky, for as skilled as he is, is far from a sure thing in the playoffs as evidenced last year. Why is everyone convinced his current hot streak will continue into the playoffs? He had a similar hot streak last regular season too.

Good wingers are probably the best bang for the buck TDL acquisitions you can find if past TDLs are any indication. Good defensemen cost an arm and a leg and centers are similarly looking like they will cost a ton, if the market for Duchene is any indication. Vanek may or may not be the right guy but there will be other good wingers available for relatively cheap, so why not upgrade the depth? If the acquisition ends up not being a fit for whatever reason, sit him. But if a player like Burt, Johansson, or Kuznetsov goes cold again what do you do?

 

[BobRouse]

Is everyone really so impressed with Tom Wilson's game that they wouldn't welcome an upgrade? Tom Wilson has 2 points in 28 playoff games. Same with Daniel Winnik, who has 3 points in 45 playoff games.

The 4th line has scored some goals recently, but who remembers the "best third line in hockey" last season? Chimera-Johansson-Wilson was considered untouchable by many here due to their insane chemistry for a few weeks during the regular season (with some pretty terrible underlying stats mind you). How did that work out in the playoffs? People talk about Kuznetsov going cold with good reason, but so did those three (3 combined points in 6 games against Pittsburgh).

Are we really counting on Brett Connolly to be a difference-maker in the playoffs? Same with Johansson, whose only real playoff moments were one game against the Rangers in 2011 and the series against the Flyers (most on the PP). And Burakovsky, for as skilled as he is, is far from a sure thing in the playoffs as evidenced last year. Why is everyone convinced his current hot streak will continue into the playoffs? He has a similar hot streak last regular season too.

Top wingers are probably the best bang for the buck TDL acquisitions you can find if past TDLs are any indication. Defensemen cost an arm and a leg and centers are similarly looking like they will cost a ton, if the market for Duchene is any indication. Vanek may or may not be the right guy but there will be other good wingers available for relatively cheap.

Nope! That's why we need Vanek who scored 0 goals in his last 10 game playoff run with the Wild.

Name them. What is "relatively cheap"? Prices at the TDL are astronomical. Glencross, who most were happy with, cost 2 good picks and was a negative for us.

Tell me how we will fit them under the cap when we have almost no room. Who will they replace in the lineup? If they replace Wilson then they better darn well be able to kill penalties.

 

[Hivemind]

We got it, BR. You think the roster is perfect, and that nobody should be discussing ways to adjust the roster in the roster thread. You can step off your soap box now.

And if you're going to come at a 0-fer-10 streak regarding Vanek in the playoffs, I suggest you look at Winnik and Wilson's career playoff numbers.

 

[Stewie G]

Very true. Also career journeymen/average D like Lovejoy and Daley played the best hockey of their lives at the same time when a guy like Bonino played his best.

In hockey you really have to have this kind of stuff happen (recall "DRUCE ON THE LOOSE"...he singlehandedly seemingly beat the Rangers that season)

That year injuries derailed us (bad luck..Hatcher, Dino, Beaupre and Stevens playing with one arm)

We had Liut but there really were no trades that could have compensated for loving the other 3 guys. Its just tough luck.

Why not put the team in a position to survive "tough luck"? Why not pick up a guy that has the potential to be this team's Druce? The more options you have, the more likely you are to get a great series from a guy when you need it.

The best hockey of their lives from average guys might be enough to get you through. The best hockey of their lives for crappy guys might not be enough to get you past a tough team.

I used to be a "protect your nuts" guy, but watching the clips of rookie Ovechkin and comparing it to the guy with gray hair makes you realize time is getting short. If not now, then when? When the team is a lesser version of this one and they're just trying to catch up to the top teams?

Edit to add: The Pens could have lost last year and blamed it on "tough luck" that Crosby and Malkin went cold or Letang was out for a pivotal game. They didn't have to go out and get another Crosby or Malkin or Letang to replace them. They got guys like Hagelin who scored 3 goals and 7 points and Daley, who scored and went +3 in the game that Letang missed, that fit their team and gave their stars a chance to find their game again.

 

[BobRouse]

We got it, BR. You think the roster is perfect, and that nobody should be discussing ways to adjust the roster in the roster thread. You can step off your soap box now.

And if you're going to come at a 0-fer-10 streak regarding Vanek in the playoffs, I suggest you look at Winnik and Wilson's career playoff numbers.

Winnik and Wilson are 4th liners not getting PP time and TOI

Vanek was always relied upon and has failed to deliver in a scoring role.

Why fix something that isn't broke??

 

[BobRouse]

Why not put the team in a position to survive "tough luck"? Why not pick up a guy that has the potential to be this team's Druce? The more options you have, the more likely you are to get a great series from a guy when you need it.

The best hockey of their lives from average guys might be enough to get you through. The best hockey of their lives for crappy guys might not be enough to get you past a tough team.

I used to be a "protect your nuts" guy, but watching the clips of rookie Ovechkin and comparing it to the guy with gray hair makes you realize time is getting short. If not now, then when? When the team is a lesser version of this one and they're just trying to catch up to the top teams?

Who do you have in mind? Clearly you have someone like that.

How are you certain we don't have that in Hershey? Druce never gave any impression that he was going to score 14 goals in a playoff run before he did it.

 

[g00n]

Is everyone really so impressed with Tom Wilson's game that they wouldn't welcome an upgrade? Tom Wilson has 2 points in 28 playoff games. Same with Daniel Winnik, who has 3 points in 45 playoff games.

The 4th line has scored some goals recently, but who remembers the "best third line in hockey" last season? Chimera-Johansson-Wilson was considered untouchable by many here due to their insane chemistry for a few weeks during the regular season (with some pretty terrible underlying stats mind you). How did that work out in the playoffs? People talk about Kuznetsov going cold with good reason, but so did those three (3 combined points in 6 games against Pittsburgh).

Are we really counting on Brett Connolly to be a difference-maker in the playoffs? Same with Johansson, whose only real playoff moments were one game against the Rangers in 2011 and the series against the Flyers (most on the PP). And Burakovsky, for as skilled as he is, is far from a sure thing in the playoffs as evidenced last year. Why is everyone convinced his current hot streak will continue into the playoffs? He had a similar hot streak last regular season too.

Good wingers are probably the best bang for the buck TDL acquisitions you can find if past TDLs are any indication. Good defensemen cost an arm and a leg and centers are similarly looking like they will cost a ton, if the market for Duchene is any indication. Vanek may or may not be the right guy but there will be other good wingers available for relatively cheap, so why not upgrade the depth? If the acquisition ends up not being a fit for whatever reason, sit him. But if a player like Burt, Johansson, or Kuznetsov goes cold again what do you do?

The ENTIRE TEAM pretty much went cold the 2nd half of the season. You're cherrypicking players you want to move out. Do you want to move Kuz out, too, since he also sucked in the playoffs last year?

Tom Wilson does a lot of stuff that he doesn't get credit for here. I'd been down on him for scoring less than I'd hoped but the more I watch him the more I'm seeing positive contributions and correct plays elsewhere on the ice. That Beagle goal last night doesn't happen without Wilson's aggressive forecheck.

Wilson has 5 points in his last 4 games. Connolly has 4 goals in his last 6. Winnik has 4 points in his last 4 games. Let's see where this goes and then decide if it's something that can be drawn out in the playoffs before we mess with it. If you can get a Vanek to sit in the box as insurance on the cheap, or if someone gets hurt near the TDL, fine. But I don't think the price is going to be right if we're shopping "just in case", and our "just in case" in Hershey might be just as likely to step up.

 

[twabby]

Nope! That's why we need Vanek who scored 0 goals in his last 10 game playoff run with the Wild.

Name them. What is "relatively cheap"? Prices at the TDL are astronomical. Glencross, who most were happy with, cost 2 good picks and was a negative for us.

Tell me how we will fit them under the cap when we have almost no room. Who will they replace in the lineup? If they replace Wilson then they better darn well be able to kill penalties.

Wilson is probably like the 7th most important penalty killer on the team. Holtby, all 4 regular PKing defensemen (Niskanen, Alzner, Carlson, Orpik), Beagle, and Eller are all more vital to that unit than Wilson. His important has been vastly overstated in an attempt to justify his position on the roster because he is a fan favorite. It'd be like saying Justin Williams or Matt Niskanen is irreplaceable on the PP. Someone can take over his PKing role. Williams, Backstrom, and Oshie could all pitch in a bit more on the PK and probably do a good enough job to replace Wilson if it came to it.

Decent wingers like Parenteau, Stempniak, Hudler, etc. have gone for 2nd thru 4th round picks recently (i.e. picks that usually amount to nothing). Sure, some players like Andrew Ladd cost too much and I wouldn't recommend paying that price for someone of his quality, but there are usually good buys to be made at wing. Unfortunately I can't really identify a ton of them now because who knows what teams will end up being sellers, but players like Parenteau, Versteeg, Hudler, Hanssen, Vrbata would all be upgrades over Wilson and Winnik IMO and none of them carry a huge cap hit or term.

 

[Stewie G]

Who do you have in mind? Clearly you have someone like that.

How are you certain we don't have that in Hershey? Druce never gave any impression that he was going to score 14 goals in a playoff run before he did it.

To paraphrase a favorite saying of some "If I knew enough, I'd be in the game." It is the job of the team to figure out who that might be. Maybe the guy IS in Hershey. How do they know WHICH guy has the best chance of being their Druce if they don't give any of them the chance? Maybe they had their own Druce in the past, but never knew it because they rolled the same lines the entire regular season, no matter the circumstances.

 

[twabby]

The ENTIRE TEAM pretty much went cold the 2nd half of the season. You're cherrypicking players you want to move out. Do you want to move Kuz out, too, since he also sucked in the playoffs last year?

Tom Wilson does a lot of stuff that he doesn't get credit for here. I'd been down on him for scoring less than I'd hoped but the more I watch him the more I'm seeing positive contributions and correct plays elsewhere on the ice. That Beagle goal last night doesn't happen without Wilson's aggressive forecheck.

Wilson has 5 points in his last 4 games. Connolly has 4 goals in his last 6. Winnik has 4 points in his last 4 games. Let's see where this goes and then decide if it's something that can be drawn out in the playoffs before we mess with it. If you can get a Vanek to sit in the box as insurance on the cheap, or if someone gets hurt near the TDL, fine. But I don't think the price is going to be right if we're shopping "just in case", and our "just in case" in Hershey might be just as likely to step up.

If the 4th line continues to produce like it has recently and you could guarantee that production to continue then sure, I wouldn't recommend upgrading them because they would be producing at levels that would put them near the top of the entire NHL. But I'd much rather use a larger sample size rather than this small one to gauge their true talent level and their likely level of contribution come playoff time.

 

[EroCaps]

It blows my mind that after 10 years of tinkering and playoff flame outs there are any fans confident going into the postseason.

They've looked amazing and complete before, people.

They can and should improve themselves any way possible.

 

[BobRouse]

In the end I trust BMac.

He is also the anti-GMGM in that he has no problem announcing his teams needs and making it happen.

I bet there is a 99% chance we either do nothing or get a better #7D

If he was unhappy with the 12 forwards or the 6D he would have said so.

 

[txpd]

This sounds a lot like people think the way to stave off the coming doom is to buy our way out of it. get more. get more. dump the bottom and get more top.

Wilson is a key member of that team and the locker room culture.

The Caps beat the Pens last season if Kuznetsov is producing at half his season pace.

Reality. The biggest obstacle for the Caps to beat this playoffs is themselves and their history. If adding Oprik and Williams haven't removed that extra weight from their shoulders, adding another player isn't going to do it. They need to acknowledge that issue and beat it. No question that the opponent uses is to boost their strength. Teams wont quit against the Caps.

Try to restack or continue to stack the team isn't where the Cup is.

Edit: Who is confident?

 

[twabby]

This sounds a lot like people think the way to stave off the coming doom is to buy our way out of it. get more. get more. dump the bottom and get more top.

Wilson is a key member of that team and the locker room culture.

The Caps beat the Pens last season if Kuznetsov is producing at half his season pace.

Reality. The biggest obstacle for the Caps to beat this playoffs is themselves and their history. If adding Oprik and Williams haven't removed that extra weight from their shoulders, adding another player isn't going to do it. They need to acknowledge that issue and beat it. No question that the opponent uses is to boost their strength. Teams wont quit against the Caps.

Try to restack or continue to stack the team isn't where the Cup is.

What about Johansson, Chimera, Wilson, Winnik, Burakovsky, Richards, etc.? Why does it fall squarely on the shoulders of Kuznetsov when these players also underperformed?

 

[g00n]

It blows my mind that after 10 years of tinkering and playoff flame outs there are any fans confident going into the postseason.

They've looked amazing and complete before, people.

They can and should improve themselves any way possible.

Define "improve themselves". Does a depth winger or 7th dman make you 100% confident? Are you advocating a big splash move? Who do you trade away, then?

I don't think anyone is confident about the playoffs yet. We're debating whether or not making moves is more prudent than standing pat and trying to get the best out of the current roster.

 

[g00n]

If the 4th line continues to produce like it has recently and you could guarantee that production to continue then sure, I wouldn't recommend upgrading them because they would be producing at levels that would put them near the top of the entire NHL. But I'd much rather use a larger sample size rather than this small one to gauge their true talent level and their likely level of contribution come playoff time.

regarding guarantees etc

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=127108733&postcount=304

 

[twabby]

regarding guarantees etc

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=127108733&postcount=304

Right that's kind of my point and it was a rhetorical statement. You can't guarantee anything, but you can work in terms of what is most likely going to happen. You can't guarantee that Ovechkin or Backstrom will produce in the playoffs, but I'd bet on them before others on the team, for instance.

I'm not expecting Wilson to be anything more than a disappointment in the playoffs because that is what he has been, historically. I'd rather not let a few hot games right now cloud judgments about his (or Winnik's, Burakovsky's, etc.) likelihood of being a contributor come playoff time when we have many more points of reference to include in our overall judgment.

 

[Stewie G]

You can undo a bad mindset or system. You can't undo bad roster moves. You can only make more moves to get back something similar to what you lost and maybe try to improve from there.

That's the cost of tinkering for the sake of "no guarantees". There are NEVER any guarantees. You never know what kind of oddball injuries will pop up on your team OR OTHERS.

And that's something we should look at before we make any changes: what kind of depth do other teams really have? Are the top teams in the league 8 and 9 solid NHLers deep on the blueline? Do they all have 12 forwards who can score like All Stars?

Or are they also fighting the cap and hoping to get some value out of some AHLers, journeymen, vets, etc?


The Pens won last year because guys you didn't expect to produce produced, and eventually their stars did, too. It was not just because they made a few trades when they sucked.

Isn't that exactly what undoing bad roster moves entails?

With no guarantees, should they just not try?

Who cares what everyone else has or doesn't have? To steal from what a wise man once said, there are no guarantees anyone will have the same team when the playoffs come around.

 

[Langway]

How are you certain we don't have that in Hershey?

The likelihood of that is extremely thin. It's Vrana and no one else realistically.

If there's a concern at this point for me it's that the top of the roster isn't consistently dominant, or at the very least they don't tend to have great motors across the board. Ovechkin is their worst two-way player and has routinely been their worst possession top sixer. Can they win with that dynamic in place 5-on-5? They also lack a truly dominant #1D. Niskanen has been mostly very good but how much better can he get in the playoffs? It's lingering questions of just how much prominent players can elevate their game further that creates the anxiety and motivation behind further stacking the roster IMO. We're also not far removed from last year when PIT's bottom six outplayed WSH's and largely determined the outcome. Relying on depth alone won't result in a deep run but you better believe teams that go all the way get that level of performance at key moments to make a difference.

They very likely won't upgrade over Wilson, in part due to his legs, physicality and PK ability. Connolly may be earning his way toward the third line sticking. But at the right value they should still seek to add quality depth. An add pushes the rest and gives insurance beyond Vrana. It also removes one thing they can look back on and regret not doing. You never know what injuries can happen. It's reasonable to want to upgrade over Ness at 7/8D. It's also reasonable to try to upgrade over Vrana for scoring-line reserve winger at the right price. One injury shouldn't lead to them relying on a rookie in a scoring line role. Neither upgrade should necessarily break the bank. It doesn't need to be Vanek...just someone with skill that can still play and keep up.