Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXVIII (It's Working! Let's Fix It.)

[Revelation]

Give me a break. He is lucky he has a good partner and a great goaltender to cover his ***. He does the stuff that you just mentioned and he is done gone. Had he done the stuff he is doing now back in the days before Nisky, Caps fans would of wanted his head.

Weird how Orlov-Niskanen is significantly outperforming Alzner-Niskanen.

Alzner has his share of crap defensive plays but they're ignored because they're not as glaring as a turnover from a guy actually trying to move the play forward.

But yeah, stack the D with pylons then wonder why you're getting blown out in the playoffs by teams with defensive stalwarts like Trevor Daley and Justin Schultz getting top 4 minutes. Lol.

 

[twabby]

If you create more goals than you allow, you are a net positive for your team. Guess which player has the worst relative goal differential at even strength on the team since last season?

Orlov's critics mainly cite his risky play without actually crunching the numbers to see if the reward is greater than the risk (hint: it is). Meanwhile, Alzner's supporters cite his steady and reliable defensive play without crunching the numbers to see if his defense makes up for his lack of offense (hint: it doesn't). People demand forwards play defense, why don't they demand defensemen to contribute offensively?

 

[Revelation]

There's a faction among our posters that thinks points for is all that matters. That group also seems to have missed most of Mike Green's Caps career.

There's also a faction that looking gritty while pinned in front of the net is more important than winning games.

 

[PB12]

Weird how Orlov-Niskanen is significantly outperforming Alzner-Niskanen.

Alzner has his share of crap defensive plays but they're ignored because they're not as glaring as a turnover from a guy actually trying to move the play forward.

But yeah, stack the D with pylons then wonder why you're getting blown out in the playoffs by teams with defensive stalwarts like Trevor Daley and Justin Schultz getting top 4 minutes. Lol.

It doesn't matter. He leaves Nisky to do the work and Nisky has to save his sorry ***. Thats not fair to Nisky or Holtby at all.

 

[Calicaps]

Weird how Orlov-Niskanen is significantly outperforming Alzner-Niskanen.

Alzner has his share of crap defensive plays but they're ignored because they're not as glaring as a turnover from a guy actually trying to move the play forward.

But yeah, stack the D with pylons then wonder why you're getting blown out in the playoffs by teams with defensive stalwarts like Trevor Daley and Justin Schultz getting top 4 minutes. Lol.

If you create more goals than you allow, you are a net positive for your team. Guess which player has the worst relative goal differential at even strength on the team since last season?

Orlov's critics mainly cite his risky play without actually crunching the numbers to see if the reward is greater than the risk (hint: it is). Meanwhile, Alzner's supporters cite his steady and reliable defensive play without crunching the numbers to see if his defense makes up for his lack of offense (hint: it doesn't). People demand forwards play defense, why don't they demand defensemen to contribute offensively?

The answer to both of you is that numbers aside, the offensive opportunities prevented, which aren't always calculable because they may be prevented 30 seconds before a shot would've happened, are greater with Alzner. That's why he gets the tougher assignments, PK time, and key minutes. Preventing a cycle from getting underway at all, holding a guy along the boards so he can't make a play, these things don't show up statistically but they make the subtle difference. And that's why defensive defenseman are prized by coaches.

 

[SpinningEdge]

Maybe it's just me - but maybe a rental isn't the answer. They rarely work out.

A rental is a player a team is unsure of keeping or wants to get rid of - and a player usually playing for a contract. Then they go to a new team and have to worry about just winning on a team he knows is just renting him? That's a huge risk because maybe you get a player who is just playing for him and not necessarily some random team he will be with for 20-30 games...

I think the approach is to trade for a player Caps want to be part of their future. Someone longer than a final year contract.

Question is- what of those players are available?

 

[Revelation]

The answer to both of you is that numbers aside, the offensive opportunities prevented, which aren't always calculable because they may be prevented 30 seconds before a shot would've happened, are greater with Alzner. That's why he gets the tougher assignments, PK time, and key minutes. Preventing a cycle from getting underway at all, holding a guy along the boards so he can't make a play, these things don't show up statistically but they make the subtle difference. And that's why defensive defenseman are prized by coaches.

And dumping the puck to the boards after getting it in the offensive zone and giving it away to the other team instead of generating an offensive chance also isn't always calculable but is a major blow to the team. You manage to get established in the offensive zone, get a cycle going, then Alzner pisses it away. Chipping the puck up resulting in a neutral zone free for all and a counterattack, instead of carrying it in and generating an offensive chances with the other team on their heels, also doesn't show up in defensive stats or even on the eye test often.

But no one cares because people prefer gritty defensive plays rather than not having to make gritty defensive plays because you didn't give the other team an opportunity to attack in the first place. It's like people preferring amazing acrobatic saves that goalies make due to being out of position rather to a goalie never letting it get to that point in the first place. Alzner is beyond reproach here because he came along at the same time as Jeff Schultz, when we were all pining for a good stay at home defenseman, and didn't suck. So him never figuring out the other half of the ice or how to use his mobility to carry the puck is never considered a slight against him, even though it hampers the team given that he's used as a top pairing D.

Also, PMDs are the most prized commodity in the league right now.

 

[Calicaps]

And dumping the puck to the boards after getting it in the offensive zone and giving it away to the other team instead of generating an offensive chance also isn't always calculable but is a major blow to the team. You manage to get established in the offensive zone, get a cycle going, then Alzner pisses it away. Chipping the puck up resulting in a neutral zone free for all and a counterattack, instead of carrying it in and generating an offensive chances with the other team on their heels, also doesn't show up in defensive stats or even on the eye test often.

But no one cares because people prefer gritty defensive plays rather than not having to make gritty defensive plays because you didn't give the other team an opportunity to attack in the first place. It's like people preferring amazing acrobatic saves that goalies make due to being out of position rather to a goalie never letting it get to that point in the first place. Alzner is beyond reproach here because he came along at the same time as Jeff Schultz, when we were all pining for a good stay at home defenseman, and didn't suck. So him never figuring out the other half of the ice or how to use his mobility to carry the puck is never considered a slight against him, even though it hampers the team given that he's used as a top pairing D.

Also, PMDs are the most prized commodity in the league right now.

tl;dr.

I'll just end with this thought: you give 9 27's assignments and it could get really ugly really fast. And BTW, none of this means I don't like Orlov. I do.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Actually good 2-way PMD defensemen are a prized commodity. Ones that can't at least capably hold their own in their own end, not so much.

 

[Revelation]

tl;dr.

Yea I expected as much

It's not about liking Orlov, it's about realizing that this team gets a lot worse if you subtract him without a capable replacement than if you subtract Alzner.

 

[Revelation]

Actually good 2-way PMD defensemen are a prized commodity. Ones that can't at least capably hold their own in their own end, not so much.

That would be big news to Alex Goligoski, Tyson Barrie and Keith Yandle.

And if Orlov couldn't hold his own end capably then our top pairing of Orlov Niskanen would be getting killed instead of leading to the most dominant month in the team's history, since, you know, it's the top pairing and doesn't get sheltered much by definition.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

If you create more goals than you allow, you are a net positive for your team. Guess which player has the worst relative goal differential at even strength on the team since last season?

Orlov's critics mainly cite his risky play without actually crunching the numbers to see if the reward is greater than the risk (hint: it is). Meanwhile, Alzner's supporters cite his steady and reliable defensive play without crunching the numbers to see if his defense makes up for his lack of offense (hint: it doesn't). People demand forwards play defense, why don't they demand defensemen to contribute offensively?

I have a number to crunch for you.....

1 - as in it only takes one brain dead play to lose a playoff game or be worse be eliminated.

When Orlov can reasonably eliminate the large majority of those, IN THE PLAYOFFS, then he truly becomes as valuable as you want us to believe. I'm very happy he's playing better as as the rest of the team, but the playoffs is where he will cement his future with this team or play himself out of town.

 

[Calicaps]

Yea I expected as much

It's not about liking Orlov, it's about realizing that this team gets a lot worse if you subtract him without a capable replacement than if you subtract Alzner.

I said nothing about replacing him. Just saying you misjudge Alzner's value.

 

[Revelation]

I have a number to crunch for you.....

1 - as in it only takes one brain dead play to lose a playoff game or be worse be eliminated.

When Orlov can reasonably eliminate the large majority of those, IN THE PLAYOFFS, then he truly becomes as valuable as you want us to believe.

If you think Alzner has 0 of those in a game I don't know what team you've been watching.

Here's another number - 1 - as in it takes one offensive chance in a tight as balls playoff game not being converted or taken advantage of to lose said playoff game.

 

[PB12]

I said nothing about replacing him. Just saying you misjudge Alzner's value.

It seems like recently when a player struggles we have to trade him. Havewe really gotten this spoiled.

 

[Hivemind]

Yeah, it isn't. Yet. Wait until the contract is up to evaluate. Also, I assume every other player on the roster is earning every single penny of his salary...

People here are advocating that they cannot call up even a 13th forward because the need to bank cap space for the deadline, and you want to pretend that having another $500K to bank doesn't matter?

It's about the leverage they had in negotiations. There's obviously other players who are overpaid (Orpik being the flag bearer on this front), but most of them at least were in a negotiating position where they had the leverage to drive up their salary. The issue most of us were taking was that they could have played hardball with Wilson and signed him for less (like they've done with other players in the past).

 

[PB12]

If you think Alzner has 0 of those in a game I don't know what team you've been watching.

Here's another number - 1 - as in it takes one offensive chance in a tight as balls playoff game not being converted or taken advantage of to lose said playoff game.

Yeah and it takes one mistake to kill your dreams. Something Orlov has done in the past. It could have been a lot worse had it not been for Holtby. And right now Orlov is still showing those signs. Alzner may not be flashy, but he is someone you can trust.

 

[Revelation]

I said nothing about replacing him. Just saying you misjudge Alzner's value.

I'm one of few people willing to objectively judge his value.

He's very good at a very narrow part of the game that looks like sexy defense to people - skating backwards while the other team is carrying the puck and not being undressed, swatting the puck outside, then blocking shots. It's great until you remember that there's 2 more zones to the game.

Niskanen is about as good as Alzner at that but he also has something to offer in the neutral and offensive zone and is pretty much unanimously considered our best overall defenseman as a result.

And Niskanen still looks a lot better with Orlov next to him than Alzner because he's more comfortable staying back than having to rush the puck himself. That's also a part of the game that impacts a team defensively.

 

[Revelation]

Yeah and it takes one mistake to kill your dreams. Something Orlov has done in the past. It could have been a lot worse had it not been for Holtby. And right now Orlov is still showing those signs. Alzner may not be flashy, but he is someone you can trust.

You mean you don't feel as bad when the team loses games/playoff series because they can't transition the puck because it doesn't look as bad to the eye.

It also takes only one unconverted offensive play to kill your dreams. Ovechkin vs Fleury game 7. That decided the series.

 

[CapsJunkie]

nice

 

[PB12]

You mean you don't feel as bad when the team loses games/playoff series because they can't transition the puck because it doesn't look as bad to the eye.

It also takes only one unconverted offensive play to kill your dreams. Ovechkin vs Fleury game 7. That decided the series.

Lets say its a 1-1 game. Goalies are hot. And Orlov decides he wants to "create" some offense, and turns it over. Thats another thing. Orlov cracks under pressure. You chase after him with high tempo, and he will crack. He will hold the puck till the last second and will turn it over. Espically when he against the boards. So going back he takes the puck up the zone, turns it over, leaving Nisky with the 2-1. Scores.

 

[Revelation]

Lets say its a 1-1 game. Goalies are hot. And Orlov decides he wants to "create" some offense, and turns it over. Thats another thing. Orlov cracks under pressure. You chase after him with high tempo, and he will crack. He will hold the puck till the last second and will turn it over. Espically when he against the boards. So going back he takes the puck up the zone, turns it over, leaving Nisky with the 2-1. Scores.

Let's say it's a 1-1 game. Goalies are hot. We're turtling like crazy and not creating any offense because we're scared ****less of a turnover. The other team keeps attacking in our zone, wearing our guys taking point shots until Alzner can't block them all and one deflects in, or someone misses an assignment which always happens under continuous pressure.

That's like half our playoff series to date.

Orlov had that one atrocious game vs the Isles and half the board thinks that's how he plays every game now lol

 

[Hivemind]

Are we really evaluating players off of hypothetical scenarios that posters are imagining?

 

[Revelation]

Are we really evaluating players off of hypothetical scenarios that posters are imagining?

Mine isn't hypothetical. Caps vs Rangers under Hunter. Caps vs Rangers under Trotz. Alzner was on for back breaking goals in both of those but it doesn't matter because he made good plays other times.

 

[PB12]

Are we really evaluating players off of hypothetical scenarios that posters are imagining?

Yes because every one is talking about Orlov's offense but it will be his defense will decide whether or not he's a Cap in the future.