A Comprehensive Review of the Kyle Dubas Era

[Donnie740]

I have been watching a bit of the Florida/Canes series. These guys are animals as well as talented especially Florida and that’s why they are going to win the cup so for all the people that think like Dubas that our soft bunch of players have any chance……the answer is nope and that’s all you need to know about reviewing Dubas

The Dubas Fan Boi Club will point to the stat sheet that shows the hits in the Florida Toronto series were close to even.

But there’s a big difference between Justin Holl accidentally bumping into someone and bring credited with a “hit” compared to Gudas driving Dave Kampf face first into the boards and being credited with a hit.

 

[Trapper]

The Dubas Fan Boi Club will point to the stat sheet that shows the hits in the Florida Toronto series were close to even.

But there’s a big difference between Justin Holl accidentally bumping into someone and bring credited with a “hit” compared to Gudas driving Dave Kampf face first into the boards and being credited with a hit.

Or the threat of hits that actually cause the other players to get rid of the puck quicker or lose a puck battle because you won’t fully get in there.

 

[GQS]

Someone posted the Dubas draft record the other day and I was shocked at how bad it was. He really won't be missed by me at all. But the disappointing thing is Shanahan is still here. So they missed their chance to really make a change. Bringing this same core back is just plain discouraging. And he wanted Dubas back too, just Dubas tried to squeeze more money out of them and I guess that soured things.

How is Dubas' draft record 'shockingly bad'?

NHL and WHA Team Draft Lists at Hockeydb.com

www.hockeydb.com

You can go check out the draft history of every single team and come back and tell me which team drafted significantly better than Dubas outside of the 1st round in the past few years? Not every pick Dubas made has worked out, but at least some of them look promising and have a decent chance at becoming NHL players.

 

[LeafEgo]

IIRC Ranta waited until Marner signed. Sakic refused to overpay.

Probably that, but I also felt agents were waiting for Marner to sign to bump the market up, but when the contract came in it was such an outlier that it's wasn't particularly helpful.

Stutzle just signed 8.3 for eight years. Look at his stats first three years, just got 39/90.

 

[keonsbitterness]

So what? Matthews, Marner and Tavares make 11-11.6 million and have been playoff no shows for 7 years

So what? I was responding to a post about Marchment, not them.

 

[mikeyz]

So what? I was responding to a post about Marchment, not them.

And I'm asking you why are you shitting on Marchment when we have 3 guys who make almost 3 times more then him and have accomplished the same in more then double the time?

 

[Superstar]

Probably that, but I also felt agents were waiting for Marner to sign to bump the market up, but when the contract came in it was such an outlier that it's wasn't particularly helpful.

Stutzle just signed 8.3 for eight years. Look at his stats first three years, just got 39/90.

Dubas is an embarrassment with those RFA contracts to Nylander, Matthews and Marner...can't even get max term with those handouts. Gross incompetence.

Glad he's gone...probably would be giving Matthews 5 x $15 million next.

 

[Racer88]

These guys play with skill by executing with speed.

Speed and nasty. I still wonder where our team speed went

The Dubas Fan Boi Club will point to the stat sheet that shows the hits in the Florida Toronto series were close to even.

But there’s a big difference between Justin Holl accidentally bumping into someone and bring credited with a “hit” compared to Gudas driving Dave Kampf face first into the boards and being credited with a hit.

Agreed 100%

 

[Leaf Fans]

So far Sea of Blue is the only poster who has attempted an objective comprehensive review.

 

[Captain Crunch]

Glaring Errors:

* Not rallying around Nazem Kadri and making him the scapegoat for three bitter playoff losses. Subsequently trading Kadri for ultimately irrelevant players in Kerfoot and Barrie.

* Nic Foligno Trade - A complete and utter disaster. The other forgotten piece - Noesen would go on to have a productive year in Carolina.

* The handling of the Marleau Contract. Under no circumstances should he have been traded with a First Round Pick. The goal here was to retain Kapanen and Johnsson, both of whom were ultimately dealt a year later.

* The signing of the Mrazek contract. Abysmal. The jettisoning of that contract was also downright atrocious.

* The handling of the Nylander contract. Should have been forced to sit the year. Would have sent a clear message the team comes first.

* The Murray contract - Almost as inexcusable as the Tukka Rask trade. When even the majority of the fanbase has it right, you definitely need new management.

* Not addressing organizational depth - The Jake Muzzin deal had an initial positive impact; however, his current injury status makes the trade a loss. No question, Durzi, Grundstrom, and Moore would be valuable members of our current depth. The loss of Hyman of also not additionally addressed.

* Promoting Keefe without considering potential alternatives. I don't blame Keefe as virulently as many of you, I think he has some positive qualities; however, he is often his own worst enemy. He may find success elsewhere.

* Increasing organizational bloat while wanting to 'streamline' the decision making processes. There are many figureheads in the organization that serve no function. Trim the fat.

* John Tavares Contract - Hard to blame him for it, but a more restrained and experienced GM probably would have avoided this. Everybody was clamoring for it, and even though Tavares has put up good numbers, and even scored the goal to get us to the next round this year, perhaps it is best if alternate options are explored.

* Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews Deals - Created false expectations that could not be met. Both players should have been bridged (like Mackinnon) and signed to monster deals after at least 1 championship run.

* Completely overthinking the expansion draft and losing McCann. This player would have added tremendous depth to our top 6.

Some Positives:

* Found sporadic quality goaltending in Jack Campbell - Ultimately the right decision to let go of Campbell

* Found a quality 1B in Samsonov - Fantastic year, needs to continue to work on his game (specifically his positioning and lateral movement) - Has proven to be mentally tough (rebounds well, especially after soft Game 5 goal against Tampa)

* Drafted and developed Joseph Woll - Have high hopes for this kid. His positioning reminds me of Belfour (my favorite Leafs goalie)

* Drafted Knies - Huge credit for this, kid is a stud. Hopefully he realizes why Florida deliberately targeted him this year and comes back stronger and angrier next year.

* Signing of Kampf - Hardworking and low maintenance fourth liner. Played with a lot of heart and developed good chemistry with a host of linemates (ranging from Engvall to Lafferty).

* Trading for Luke Schenn - I was a nonbeliever but Schenn has improved his game immensely. Strong, steady, and displayed some solid leadership, especially when absorbing those horrendous Tampa chirps.

* Signing of Bunting - Finding a youngish player that can provide 50 points is a coup.

* Acquiring McCabe - Thought he was a solid physical presence when focused. Felt he was less effective in the Florida series.

Undecided/Question Marks:

* Trading of Rasmus Sandin - Trading our young defenseman never has a habit of coming back to bite us in the rear... I thought this guy was solid. Good positioning, physical when needed, and high puck IQ. We certainly missed his breakout passing in the playoffs.

* Acquiring Lafferty - Showed some sporadic potential, felt his deployment could be better. Could use his speed on the penalty kill like Chicago did.

* Gustaffson - Didn't this guy play consistently for Montreal in the 2021 playoffs? Why was he not used instead of Giordano and Holl?


Did I miss anything?

Great post. Really sums it up well. The only question I have, wasn't Lou the GM who drafted Woll?

 

[Captain Crunch]

Woll was a Hunter draft pick.

Dubas and Hunter co-ran the 2015 draft.

Hunter ran the 2016 and 2017 draft on his own. As much as I hate those two drafts, Woll and Liljegren are Hunter's picks so we have to give credit to Hunter for that. That being said, we had 18 picks in two drafts and only four players of significance were produced: Matthews, Woll, Liljegren and Grundstrum who was a piece in the Muzzin trade.

Dubas handled the development of all prospects from 2014 onwards though. People don't give him enough credit for the Marlies becoming a development factory.

NHLers with 100 games played produced by the Marlies between 2005-2014: Jiri Tilusty, Korbinian Holzer, James Reimer, Josh Leivo, Nazem Kadri, Gregg McKegg, Sam Carrick

Same list but with Dubas: Connor Brown, Andreas Johnsson, Pierre Engvall, Travis Dermott, Rasmus Sandin, Timothy Liljegren, Trevor Moore, Mason Marchement, Carl Grundstrum, Kasperi Kapanen, Connor Carrick, Zach Hyman, William Nylander, Justin Holl.

I'm willing to bet actual money that at least two of these guys end up on this list in the near future as well: Joseph Woll, Matt Knies, Nick Abruzzse, Topi Niemala,

But out of that list we only have 3 players still on the Leafs, one of which hopefully/thankfully will not have his contract renewed. And six others who we should have hung onto (hindsight is 20/20, at the time of the Muzzin trade it was viewed as a very good one).

 

[FerrisRox]

So he's learning something that an average hockey fan has known for years? That you need plenty of toughness and grit in order to win it all? This is NHL real men's hockey, not EA Sports video game hockey. I'm not convinced he'll be great at all. All the balancing and juggling around the cap because Dubas chose to allocate half the cap to 4 forwards is due to Pridham's competence and not anything to do with Dubas.

People need to stop acting like there was some sort of cap wizardry going on in Toronto in the first place. It's all nonsense.

When you have no space left, you have to do desperate things like signing well past their prime veterans to $850,000 contracts, make several paper transactions to send guys up and down to save money on off-days and offer-low rent contracts to players with question marks and injury history that makes them affordable.

There is no magic going on here and it doesn't require clever manipulation of the salary cap to do this. For years some of Dubas' loudest boosters have pretended that somehow Toronto had this huge advantage cause they had the guy that "wrote the salary cap" coupled with the Boy Genius and this was giving the Leafs a huge advantage in terms of how to manipulate the salary cap. It was all utter nonsense. Dubas gave half the money to four guys and then largely stuck band-aids all over the rest of roster and some people here acted like we were seeing cunning management from a guy playing 3D chess.

The Emperor Had No Clothes. The Maple Leafs are much better off without him.

 

[FerrisRox]

Or the threat of hits that actually cause the other players to get rid of the puck quicker or lose a puck battle because you won’t fully get in there.

Also, heavy hits can absolutely wear down an opponent over the length of a series. A team that properly and consistently finishes their check and takes every opportunity to lay a hit not only gets in their opponents head, as you have pointed out by forcing them to make quicker decisions and taking away their time, but there's also a physical toll. After four or five games of getting hit every time you have possession there is a cumulative effect. You're battered, you're bruised, you're sore and if two teams are relatively easily matched the team that isn't hearing footsteps and extra beat up may very well have the advantage they need.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

People need to stop acting like there was some sort of cap wizardry going on in Toronto in the first place. It's all nonsense.

When you have no space left, you have to do desperate things like signing well past their prime veterans to $850,000 contracts, make several paper transactions to send guys up and down to save money on off-days and offer-low rent contracts to players with question marks and injury history that makes them affordable.

There is no magic going on here and it doesn't require clever manipulation of the salary cap to do this. For years some of Dubas' loudest boosters have pretended that somehow Toronto had this huge advantage cause they had the guy that "wrote the salary cap" coupled with the Boy Genius and this was giving the Leafs a huge advantage in terms of how to manipulate the salary cap. It was all utter nonsense. Dubas gave half the money to four guys and then largely stuck band-aids all over the rest of roster and some people here acted like we were seeing cunning management from a guy playing 3D chess.

The Emperor Had No Clothes. The Maple Leafs are much better off without him.

Great post!

 

[hockeywiz542]

Former Toronto Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas traded a 2025 top-10 protected 1st round draft pick as part of a trade with the Chicago Blackhawks in exchange for Jake McCabe and Sam Lafferty instead of an unprotected 2025 1st round draft pick. What a relief!!

Maple Leafs acquire Chicago defenceman Jake McCabe, forward Sam Lafferty ahead of NHL trade deadline

Heading to Chicago are forwards Joey Anderson and Pavel Gogolev, a top 10 protected first round pick in the 2025 NHL draft and a second round pick in the 2026 draft.

www.thestar.com

Monday, Feb. 27, 2023

The Maple Leafs aren’t waiting for NHL trade deadline on Friday to make impactful additions to their lineup.

The club announced on Monday that it has completed a deal for Chicago defenceman Jake McCabe, a move that addresses their blueline depth heading into the post-season.

Toronto once again included high draft capital to acquire McCabe and winger Sam Lafferty from the Blackhawks, sending a top-10 protected first-round pick in the 2025 NHL draft and a second-round pick in 2026.

Also heading to Chicago are forwards Joey Anderson and Pavel Gogolev.

Toronto will also get conditional fifth-round picks in the 2024 and 2025 NHL draft.

The Blackhawks will retain 50 per cent of the salary for McCabe, who has a cap hit of $4 million this season, and for each of the next two seasons.

 

[Lauro]

So far Sea of Blue is the only poster who has attempted an objective comprehensive review.

This. But let the Dubas haters have their weeks of joy ;-)

 

[ACC1224]

So far Sea of Blue is the only poster who has attempted an objective comprehensive review.

Who decides what's 'objective'?

I haven't seen the post but I imagine it's their opinion like everyone else.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Who decides what's 'objective'?

I haven't seen the post but I imagine it's their opinion like everyone else.

If you are interested, here is the link to SeaOfBlue's comments in response to some criticisms of former Toronto Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas by the original poster of this thread:

A Comprehensive Review of the Kyle Dubas Era

Glaring Errors: * Not rallying around Nazem Kadri and making him the scapegoat for three bitter playoff losses. Subsequently trading Kadri for ultimately irrelevant players in Kerfoot and Barrie. * Nic Foligno Trade - A complete and utter disaster. The other forgotten piece - Noesen...

forums.hfboards.com

 

[Twine Tickler]

I think people will soon realize what a "terrible failure" GM actually looks like. We've had no shortage of that in our recent 30 years, and Kyle was not even close to that.

It's funny how there is some who think of Kyle's tenure as a complete failure and that he is the dumbest mind in hockey, yet those same people would likely never refer to Auston, Mitch and Willy as such failures. Yet they share the same, if not more, of the blame in the last 5 seasons.

It is entirely possible for talented players to have seasons that end in failure, but not be complete failures as players. Same goes for General Managers.

Kyle is a very bright hockey mind. He is innovative, and he helped develop a culture that players wanted to play for and represent. I can't remember any former GM being able to get players on team friendly, league minimum deals. Yet that was common place for Kyle. Say what you will about him overpaying our core, he always found a way to round out the roster in a way that was worthy of competing for the Stanley Cup. Ultimately he hitched his wagon to Mitch, Auston, JT, and Willy which was ultimately turned out to be his biggest undoing. Mitch and Auston particularly let him down in those big moments with an alarming regularity. But I got news for you, it didn't matter who was steering the ship these past 5 seasons, those 2 would be in the same place, letting whoever was in charge down when it mattered the most.

I often wonder if the people who criticize Dubas even remember some of our previous GM's...I just don't know how you could even throw Kyle's name into the same basket as JFJ, Fletcher, Nonis, Burke and even Lou. All of those guys were far worse, and left us with far more of a mess to clean up after they left.

 

[ACC1224]

I think people will soon realize what a "terrible failure" GM actually looks like. We've had no shortage of that in our recent 30 years, and Kyle was not even close to that.

It's funny how there is some who think of Kyle's tenure as a complete failure and that he is the dumbest mind in hockey, yet those same people would likely never refer to Auston, Mitch and Willy as such failures. Yet they share the same, if not more, of the blame in the last 5 seasons.

It is entirely possible for talented players to have seasons that end in failure, but not be complete failures as players. Same goes for General Managers.

Kyle is a very bright hockey mind. He is innovative, and he helped develop a culture that players wanted to play for and represent. I can't remember any former GM being able to get players on team friendly, league minimum deals. Yet that was common place for Kyle. Say what you will about him overpaying our core, he always found a way to round out the roster in a way that was worthy of competing for the Stanley Cup. Ultimately he hitched his wagon to Mitch, Auston, JT, and Willy which was ultimately turned out to be his biggest undoing. Mitch and Auston particularly let him down in those big moments with an alarming regularity. But I got news for you, it didn't matter who was steering the ship these past 5 seasons, those 2 would be in the same place, letting whoever was in charge down when it mattered the most.

I often wonder if the people who criticize Dubas even remember some of our previous GM's...I just don't know how you could even throw Kyle's name into the same basket as JFJ, Fletcher, Nonis, Burke and even Lou. All of those guys were far worse, and left us with far more of a mess to clean up after they left.

The infamous 'same people'. Who are they, some secret society? Has anyone ever seen them?

 

[Trapper]

The infamous 'same people'. Who are they, some secret society? Has anyone ever seen them?

They wouldn’t be secret if people have seen them.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Great post. Really sums it up well. The only question I have, wasn't Lou the GM who drafted Woll?

No,

Who decides what's 'objective'?

I haven't seen the post but I imagine it's their opinion like everyone else.

I said attempted.

 

[ACC1224]

They wouldn’t be secret if people have seen them.

That's what I'm doing wrong!

 

[Trapper]

That's what I'm doing wrong!

I’ll send you an invite to the next Stonecutter’s meeting but don’t tell anyone here.

 

[nuck]

You need grit, scoring, goaltending, luck, etc. You basically need everything to go right to win a Cup. Hardest trophy in sports to win. I don't think extra grit changes much of past results tbh.

My guess is Dubas will go on to another team and have some great success. Maybe I'm wrong, I just don't think this was the time to let him go. We have invested time into his development, he drafts well, his decision making has improved, and he was willing to trade the core/make major moves to improve the team this off season.

He may draft well but we actually have only Lilly and a whiff of Knies to base that on. so a bit more time is needed to support that. And because it seemed from the pc that he was saying he was willing to trade from the core doesn't mean he would have, and we don't know if those changes would have been the right ones. Admitting what you did isn't working doesn't mean you know what does work.

Imagine if the improved decision making of the last couple of seasons was negated because Kyle stuck with the wrong coach and they were only a Keefe replacement away from better times. But we don't know if he would even consider that. There is no assumption he would hit on it next year, only that it would be different than this year. Its a good time for some fresh eyes, just as he will be the fresh eyes on his next stop.