I could still look back to that how "mazur was drafted too high".
It's easy to look back on my old draft data, which did include my own rank and other ranks.
Simon Edvinsson
- picked 6th overall.
- his highest rank was 2nd overall
- his consensus pre-draft rank was at 7th overall (falled a bit from january ranks)
- his draft range was 2-23 overall
Sebastian Cossa
- picked 15th overall, traded up 23rd --> 15th to get him
- his highest rank was 7th overall
- his consensus pre-draft rank was at 18th overall (Wallstedt was 10th) Wings second 1st rd pick was 23th overall
- his draft range was 7-54 overall
Shai Buium
- picked 38th overall. (wings traded up by 2 spots to get him)
- his highest rank was 27th overall
- his consensus pre-draft rank was at 59th overall
- his draft range was 27-102 overall
Carter Mazur
- picked 70th overall
- his highest rank was 126th overall (my own rank, nobody else did rank him higher, except Kris Draper, 129th was nearest)
- his consensus pre-draft rank was at 198th overall
- his draft range was 126-302 overall
- Wings didn't have a pick for ne next 44 picks, so maybe that was the reason for the reach.
Red Savage
- picked 114th overall.
- his highest rank was 43rd overall
- his consensus pre-draft rank was at 79th overall
- his draft range was 43-148 overall
If you swap Savage or dower-Nilsson to 70th overall and Mazur to 114th or 134th, guys just get drafted in different order and we have same results. Whiners should be happy.
Some guys just are reaches and some are taken as "fallers". What I've learned in latest years, on Top15 goes very near of consensus and then all the consensus blows up. Everybody will favor their own guys and 2-7 rounds could be anything.
What comes to Mazur, he could be right there as 70th best talent, but that "overager" thing obviously dropped him at all lists, which will affect on this consensus-model. Those guys just get overlooked. If Red Wings scouts saw his real talent by eye-test, all credit for Draper or whoever was so sure about the pick. Get your guy.
But fun to notice, that also my statistical model (my own rank) had noticed Mazur higher, than any other rank builder I use for my consensus value. That includes Bob McKenzie etc. all the biggest ranking websites. In my statistical model I did just compare his Dy+1 year to other year earlier 2020 drafted and their Dy+1 years and weighted that heavily. Pretty simple.
Liam Dower-Nilsson
- picked 134th overall.
- his highest rank was 34rd overall
- his consensus pre-draft rank was at 72nd overall
- his draft range was 34-122 overall
Oscar Plandowski
- picked 155th overall
- his highest rank was 37th overall
- his consensus pre-draft rank was at 93rd overall
- his draft range was 37-140 overall
Pasquale Zito
- picked 166th overall.
- unranked on any list
- didn't play at all on his draft year 2020-21
Also, interesting how no one talks about these 3 picks after Mazur (Savage, Dower-Nilsson, Plandowski), which seems to be all steals vs. the position they were picked, and how high they were ranked on many lists.