2025 NHL Draft: Lose a ton for Porter Martone

[hohosaregood]

hopefully it's like the 2013 or 2014 drafts where the top 4 are relatively equivalent. obviously mackinnon came out on top but he and seth jones were neck and neck up to the draft and even barkov justified going 2nd pretty early on. and draisaitl coming out on top compared to reinhart, ekblad, and bennett. if it's like that, you could easily justify martone or schaeffer 1oa. at this point, hagens would have to play at an insane level to pull away from crowd.

 

[Gecklund]

If you get James Hagens 3rd overall you're laughing IMO. I'm really happy with any of those three players.

Yep agreed. Think this draft we are going to add yet another cornerstone level piece regardless of where our pick falls (within reason). I’ll be honest I’ve tuned out of hockey a lot for the past couple months (basically since July 15th-ish) but my early opinions of this draft is there’s a ton of guys who could give us a very good piece.

I don’t think any of them are on Macklin’s level (as discussed previously in this thread but I didn’t look until now so I’m responding now ) I think Macklin is just so intelligent and I think his offensive game is a bit underrated. He’s never going to be that Jack Hughes level highlight real but I think he is just one of those guys that always makes the right play/always is in the right spot. Real fun to have.

With all that said I’d love to add any of Hagens, Schaefer, Martone, Frondell, Ryabkin, McQueen, Hensler. I’m probably forgetting people cause football is on so only half paying attention to this very rambly post but I like the potential of all those guys and even if our young guys really drag us along to a higher finish, I don’t think we will go wanting from the draft.

 

[anthonyyy]

This came up on my Twitter feed so I figured I'd post here. I don't know anything about this kid other than this clip, but if he's talented enough to play top-6 in the NHL, he could be Will Smith's best friend as the F1 on that line. He turns 18 in a month, so maybe take it with a grain of salt that he could just be stronger than these guys right now.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1843342949779972221

 

[Barrie22]

This came up on my Twitter feed so I figured I'd post here. I don't know anything about this kid other than this clip, but if he's talented enough to play top-6 in the NHL, he could be Will Smith's best friend as the F1 on that line. He turns 18 in a month, so maybe take it with a grain of salt that he could just be stronger than these guys right now.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1843342949779972221

Even among CHL players 6'0 and 175 is still kind of average size. I watched expecting to see like a brent burns kind of player towering over everyone on the ice, but in most of those clips he was the same size or even smaller then the ones he was battling for the puck with.

 

[Juxtaposer]

EP's first 2025 ranking came out and it's a doozy.

1. Hagens
2. McQueen
3. Misa
4. Schaefer
5. Martone

Ryabkin down at 12, Frondell down at 15, and Hensler at 16. All judged to have limited upside, which I can't say I disagree with. Trethewey and Radivojevic outside the first round.

They're high on Malcolm Spence, whom I do like a lot as a high-floor almost certainly a 2nd liner, but not someone who will be in consideration for our pick. They like Jackson Smith as their second D off the board, who is a very interesting Korchinski-like LHD. And they're high on Victor Eklund as well, as they should be!

Someone that sticks out to me as interesting in the early 2nd is Jack Murtagh, he's a sort of power winger type, and he's stood out to me with the NTDP so far this season.

I would love if McQueen has a 1st overall caliber season, he'd be a great fit. I'm just not sold from what I've seen so far.

I wanted to share a couple tools ratings that EP does for a couple individuals. Take these numbers in order as [skating][shooting][passing][stick-handling][hockey sense][physicality]

James Hagens: 8 6 7 7.5 7 5.5
Roger McQueen: 5 6.5 7 7.5 7 7
Michael Misa: 7 6.5 7 7 7 6
Macklin Celebrini: 7 8 8 8 8 6
Will Smith: 5 5.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 4

Matthew Schaefer: 6.5 6.5 7 7 7 6
Jackson Smith: 7.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 6.5
Sam Dickinson: 7.5 6 5 5 5 6.5

Porter Martone: 5 7 6.5 6.5 7 7
Quentin Musty: 4.5 7 6.5 7 7 5.5

With the caveat that you can never capture the total impact of a player in numbers, my takeaways are:

1) Macklin Celebrini is awesome and the best
2) Hagens is like if Smith were a bit smaller but a great skater
3) Smith's brain is elite but his tools lack behind, which is why he may be an aggregate worse prospect than Hagens/McQueen/Misa, even if I don't believe in Misa like that.
4) Schaefer is really well-rounded but no standout trait. A '7' in IQ puts him at 'high-end' in that category, compared to Dickinson's 'NHL average' grade of 5.
5) Jackson Smith seems like a similar caliber of prospect as Dickinson but more offensively leaning and maybe a smidge better all-around.
6) Whoever we realistically draft this summer is going to be the best non-Celebrini asset in our org.

 

[Jargon]

It’s really exciting that I don’t need to worry about us not winning the draft lottery this year but that no matter what happens we’re very likely going to get yet another fantastic piece to our already fantastic pipeline.

 

[hohosaregood]

I find McQueen to be intriguing but he always seemed more like an opportunistic scorer whenever I see his highlights. Like mostly finishing off plays, not really featuring in the play.

 

[Alaskanice]

EP's first 2025 ranking came out and it's a doozy.

1. Hagens
2. McQueen
3. Misa
4. Schaefer
5. Martone

Ryabkin down at 12, Frondell down at 15, and Hensler at 16. All judged to have limited upside, which I can't say I disagree with. Trethewey and Radivojevic outside the first round.

They're high on Malcolm Spence, whom I do like a lot as a high-floor almost certainly a 2nd liner, but not someone who will be in consideration for our pick. They like Jackson Smith as their second D off the board, who is a very interesting Korchinski-like LHD. And they're high on Victor Eklund as well, as they should be!

Someone that sticks out to me as interesting in the early 2nd is Jack Murtagh, he's a sort of power winger type, and he's stood out to me with the NTDP so far this season.

I would love if McQueen has a 1st overall caliber season, he'd be a great fit. I'm just not sold from what I've seen so far.

I wanted to share a couple tools ratings that EP does for a couple individuals. Take these numbers in order as [skating][shooting][passing][stick-handling][hockey sense][physicality]

James Hagens: 8 6 7 7.5 7 5.5
Roger McQueen: 5 6.5 7 7.5 7 7
Michael Misa: 7 6.5 7 7 7 6
Macklin Celebrini: 7 8 8 8 8 6
Will Smith: 5 5.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 4

Matthew Schaefer: 6.5 6.5 7 7 7 6
Jackson Smith: 7.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 6.5
Sam Dickinson: 7.5 6 5 5 5 6.5

Porter Martone: 5 7 6.5 6.5 7 7
Quentin Musty: 4.5 7 6.5 7 7 5.5

With the caveat that you can never capture the total impact of a player in numbers, my takeaways are:

1) Macklin Celebrini is awesome and the best
2) Hagens is like if Smith were a bit smaller but a great skater
3) Smith's brain is elite but his tools lack behind, which is why he may be an aggregate worse prospect than Hagens/McQueen/Misa, even if I don't believe in Misa like that.
4) Schaefer is really well-rounded but no standout trait. A '7' in IQ puts him at 'high-end' in that category, compared to Dickinson's 'NHL average' grade of 5.
5) Jackson Smith seems like a similar caliber of prospect as Dickinson but more offensively leaning and maybe a smidge better all-around.
6) Whoever we realistically draft this summer is going to be the best non-Celebrini asset in our org.

This is impressive. Gives me something to study. Thank you.

 

[Juxtaposer]

It’s really exciting that I don’t need to worry about us not winning the draft lottery this year but that no matter what happens we’re very likely going to get yet another fantastic piece to our already fantastic pipeline.

Yeah it's genuinely so relieving to have three or four guys I'm really excited about at the top of the draft instead of literally one guy. If we hadn't won the Celebrini lottery, our rebuild is delayed by at least a year, if not more. The anxiety I had leading into the lottery last year was insane, and I definitely can't take it again.

I find McQueen to be intriguing but he always seemed more like an opportunistic scorer whenever I see his highlights. Like mostly finishing off plays, not really featuring in the play.

Yeah, that's my impression of him as well, which is why he's always kinda sat in the 5-7 range in my personal list. But EP was high on Cayden Lindstrom last year before anyone else was, so maybe he'll have that kind of rise.

 

[weastern bias]

[skating][shooting][passing][stick-handling][hockey sense][physicality]

Macklin Celebrini: 7 8 8 8 8 6

1) Macklin Celebrini is awesome and the best

Thank you

I appreciate this addition to my growing sample for my confirmation bias

My working theory is this:

Macklin Celebrini >

 

[one2gamble]

Now, just don't over achieve

 

[coooldude]

I'm also more excited so far about this year, but a lot of that is colored by having Celebrini already. And, it's still early... at this point (and through like January), Cayden Lindstrom still had no back problems, Demidov hadn't quite popped until his tear from January on, Celebrini hadn't cemented himself as quite as clear a 1OA as he was, etc. etc.

I have barely watched McQueen, but I have a massive soft spot for Martone already. However if McQueen pops, there's something tantalizing about a 6'5" C to follow behind Celebrini, and maybe Smith finds himself on the wing, or McQueen swings to wing while Smith centers him. And of course, if Schaefer has a great, year, then he seems like a very bankable elite prospect.

I don't think Ryabkin will be the play with a top 3 pick, but I do think his playstyle is very transferrable to the NHL based on my limited viewings. The team that picks him up will be getting basically like, a bigger Helenius but with sandpaper. He's got a motor, he has a hard forecheck, he bangs bodies, but still has top 10 vision and skill, and comparable numbers to Michkov in D-2 I believe. If he turns it up from a slow start in the KHL, watch out.

Frondell looks like a cerebral player but it's always hard to know if someone without extremes in any dimension is going to wilt or find their inner Kucherov (honestly, the same may apply to W. Smith). Gut says he's an early faller.

Maybe Misa is excellent, but I just don't get the vibe from him of a top 3 pick. He feels like Diet Celebrini to me. We already have Diet Crosby. Maybe he'll prove me (a lot of us) wrong.

The warts will come out over time. Last year started feeling super risky around January just because everyone from 2-15 had question marks... and it'll be fun to see the late risers again.

 

[LilLeeroy]

If Porter and Misa keep playing the way they have been and Hagens plays as expected, do you think that is 3 guys who all would have gone 1st overall if they were in last years draft?

 

[matt trick]

If Porter and Misa keep playing the way they have been and Hagens plays as expected, do you think that is 3 guys who all would have gone 1st overall if they were in last years draft?

I’d go 0. Others on here have seen a lot more of these guys than I have, but in terms of what I’ve watched- and also read from folks I trust- I’d rank the last three drafts like this:

Bedard/Celebrini
Carlsson/Fantilli/Michkov
Hagens
Smith/Schaefer/Martone/McQueen (all close)
Demidov/Levshunov
Lindstrom/Buium/Parekh/Catton
Yak/Silayev/Dickinson/Sennecke/Iginla/Leonard
Luchanko/Helenius/MBN/Reinbacher/Dvorsku

Frondell, Misa, Rybakin, Hensler, and Spence all look like really nice players, but guessing they’ll end up in the Lindstrom tier or below. A few huge RHD prospects who could really move up the rankings as Yakemchuk did.

Having McQueen or Martone compliment Celebrini or Smith with massive size, skill, and strength in the top 6 is incredibly appetizing. If Schaefer can give us a decade as a #1 D that’s more exciting still. But, if Hagens is the only guy close to Celebrini’s level, you take him without hesitating.

Superstar forward, elite power forward, or #1 D. Hopefully we can get all three filled in the next 2-3 years.

 

[coooldude]

If Porter and Misa keep playing the way they have been and Hagens plays as expected, do you think that is 3 guys who all would have gone 1st overall if they were in last years draft?

I think (and I think a lot of pundits think) that Celebrini is second only to Bedard in the last 3 drafts. I like @matt trick list above but this is what I would guess the "consensus" is:

Bedard
Celebrini (Michkov here maybe, with hindsight, although he's still a winger)
Fantilli/Carlsson/Hagens/Michkov, this entire tier very close to Celebrini
Smith/Martone/McQueen/Schaefer/maybe Misa (or maybe he recovers his super-elite status and jumps up one more)
Demidov/Levshunov/Lindstrom/maybe Misa
etcetera

 

[LilLeeroy]

I think (and I think a lot of pundits think) that Celebrini is second only to Bedard in the last 3 drafts. I like @matt trick list above but this is what I would guess the "consensus" is:

Bedard
Celebrini (Michkov here maybe, with hindsight, although he's still a winger)
Fantilli/Carlsson/Hagens/Michkov, this entire tier very close to Celebrini
Smith/Martone/McQueen/Schaefer/maybe Misa (or maybe he recovers his super-elite status and jumps up one more)
Demidov/Levshunov/Lindstrom/maybe Misa
etcetera

I don't know I think it's pretty hard not to have Hagens ahead of Celebrini based on what they have accomplished so far, and also including that Hagens has the ability to be one of the best skaters in the NHL in his prime. Hagens could have an underwhelming year at BC but I don't think that is likely especially likely.

If Martone and Misa both put up over 2.5 ppg for the season I think it would be extremely hard to argue they wouldn't be up there as well.

 

[coooldude]

I don't know I think it's pretty hard not to have Hagens ahead of Celebrini based on what they have accomplished so far, and also including that Hagens has the ability to be one of the best skaters in the NHL in his prime. Hagens could have an underwhelming year at BC but I don't think that is likely especially likely.

If Martone and Misa both put up over 2.5 ppg for the season I think it would be extremely hard to argue they wouldn't be up there as well.

Could be. I'm just saying what I've read in a lot of places. I think consensus is that Celebrini has a better 2 way game than Hagens and he's stouter, although they're both young still. Celebrini's season was especially impressive given how young he is and how relatively little support he had versus Hagens stepping into a pretty great situation at BC.

We'll see about Martone and Misa as well. I'm just saying -- at the beginning of last year, Celebrini was seen as a weak 1OA. By the end of the year, a lot of pros and folks on HFB were saying that he was second only to Bedard in the past two years, and people shouldn't sleep on how big a deal that is given Carlsson and Fantilli.

If Misa and Martone and Hagens all have the year you're describing, then this draft is actually deeper at the top than 2023, just without a generational talent. And it'll be great for the Sharks.

 

[LilLeeroy]

Could be. I'm just saying what I've read in a lot of places. I think consensus is that Celebrini has a better 2 way game than Hagens and he's stouter, although they're both young still. Celebrini's season was especially impressive given how young he is and how relatively little support he had versus Hagens stepping into a pretty great situation at BC.

We'll see about Martone and Misa as well. I'm just saying -- at the beginning of last year, Celebrini was seen as a weak 1OA. By the end of the year, a lot of pros and folks on HFB were saying that he was second only to Bedard in the past two years, and people shouldn't sleep on how big a deal that is given Carlsson and Fantilli.

If Misa and Martone and Hagens all have the year you're describing, then this draft is actually deeper at the top than 2023, just without a generational talent. And it'll be great for the Sharks.

Yeah was just thinking about the somewhat unlikely hypothetical where both those guys maintain their current pace.

I just don't think 2 way game as prospects is particularly meaningful.

 

[gaucholoco3]

I don't know I think it's pretty hard not to have Hagens ahead of Celebrini based on what they have accomplished so far, and also including that Hagens has the ability to be one of the best skaters in the NHL in his prime. Hagens could have an underwhelming year at BC but I don't think that is likely especially likely.

If Martone and Misa both put up over 2.5 ppg for the season I think it would be extremely hard to argue they wouldn't be up there as well.

Hagens in the USHL scored at a 1.8 ppg clip in only 26 games in his D-1 season. Celebrini scored at a 1.72 ppg clip over 50 games. I don’t think those numbers have “accomplished” more than Celebrini.

Celebrini then put up close to record setting numbers as a freshman on a team that didn’t have much talent.

Hagens would have to break records since he will likely play with Leonard and Perrault. Hagens is also 9 months older than Celebrini was when he started college.

Just because he has elite skating doesn’t mean he is better.

 

[weastern bias]

I just don't think 2 way game as prospects is particularly memeaningful

It is incredibly meaningful

 

[hohosaregood]

It is incredibly meaningful

it's hard to say, there's a reasonable number of prospects where the 2 way game doesn't really translate. i remember kyle connor being considered a 2 way forward but that fell out of his game. and chris tierney played like a passive junior styled defensive game.

 

[LilLeeroy]

Hagens in the USHL scored at a 1.8 ppg clip in only 26 games in his D-1 season. Celebrini scored at a 1.72 ppg clip over 50 games. I don’t think those numbers have “accomplished” more than Celebrini.

Celebrini then put up close to record setting numbers as a freshman on a team that didn’t have much talent.

Hagens would have to break records since he will likely play with Leonard and Perrault. Hagens is also 9 months older than Celebrini was when he started college.

Just because he has elite skating doesn’t mean he is better.

Hagens just had an all-time great u18s where he set the record for points and almost singe handedly carried a not very good US team to a gold medal. I think that is a more impressive accomplishment than anything Celebrini did as a prospect, even if it is a small sample size.

BU was a loaded team last year with a Hobey Baker Hat Trick finalist returning and the most drafted players in college hockey.

Also unless I'm miscounting, November to June isn't 9 months.

It is incredibly meaningful

Like hoho said, there are a ton of examples of "two way" guys defensive games not translating and offense only guys becoming defensive specialists. A funny one is to look back at the Jack Eichel vs Auston Matthews debates when they were prospects.

The hockey iq and tools are a lot more important than the "wow look how defensively responsible he is as a prospects" imo.

 

[Jargon]

So then is it looking like the top 3 prospects will likely be forwards? I know you take BPA, but man it’d be tempting to grab the highest available defenseman just due to our lack. That said, I suppose if you get a Hagens or whatever, it makes some of our other prospects more tradeable for a potential 1D.

 

[LilLeeroy]

So then is it looking like the top 3 prospects will likely be forwards? I know you take BPA, but man it’d be tempting to grab the highest available defenseman just due to our lack. That said, I suppose if you get a Hagens or whatever, it makes some of our other prospects more tradeable for a potential 1D.

Penguins drafted three centers with top 2 picks three years in a row. I'd say it worked out pretty well for them.

 

[Zarzh]

it's hard to say, there's a reasonable number of prospects where the 2 way game doesn't really translate. i remember kyle connor being considered a 2 way forward but that fell out of his game. and chris tierney played like a passive junior styled defensive game.

Hagens is a player where his defense is less likely to translate as he struggled heavily when practicing at higher levels and doesn't have the tools. Celebrini showed he could defend well when playing at a higher level for his age, you'd like him to be an inch or two taller but that's his only limitation.